2013 HOW Conference: Climate Change Exacerbates Rain-Related Disease Risk


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Learn more about the stormwater impacts to public health, get engaged about the stormwater impacts to public health, get exposed to recent research documenting diarrhea-causing viruses in drinking water, and get imaginative about how to communicate the risks posed by waterborne disease to the public and policymakers. View a dynamic diorama that dramatizes the perfect storm that results when our aging underground infrastructure meets climate change. This presentation was given by Michael Timm, Science Communications Specialist, Center for Water Policy, University of Wisconsin-
Milwaukee School of Freshwater Sciences.

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2013 HOW Conference: Climate Change Exacerbates Rain-Related Disease Risk

  1. 1. Climate  Change  Exacerbates    Rain-­‐Related  Disease  Risk   Michael  Timm   Science  Communica<on  Specialist   Center  for  Water  Policy   School  of  Freshwater  Sciences   University  of  Wisconsin-­‐Milwaukee   ma<mm@uwm.edu   c.  414.378.0945  
  2. 2. Climate  Change  Exacerbates    Rain-­‐Related  Disease  Risk   Michael  Campbell   COO  &  Senior  Vice  President   Ruekert/Mielke  Inc.,  Consul<ng  Engineers     mcampbell@ruekert-­‐mielke.com  
  3. 3. Audience:  Who  are  you?   •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  NGOs?   Engineers?   Legislators?   Policymakers?   Scien<sts?   Students?   Public  Health  Officers?   Others?  
  4. 4. The  Problem:   Rain-­‐related  Disease  Risk   Waterborne   Disease   Climate   Change   Failing   Infrastructure   Stormwater  
  5. 5. Policy  Solu<ons:   Rain-­‐related  Disease  Risk   Statewide   Stormwater   Standards   Incen<vize   Private   Sewer  Repair   Disinfect   Public  Wells   Reduce   Health   Risk  
  6. 6. I.  Climate  Change  
  7. 7. Energizing  storms  &  loading  the  dice   Adapted  from  Trenberth  1999  
  8. 8. >?<   Historical  2”  24-­‐hr  storm   events  per  decade  for   southern  Wisconsin   Green  Bay  Packers   playoff  appearances   2000-­‐2010  
  9. 9. 12                          13   Historical  2”  24-­‐hr  storm   events  per  decade  for   southern  Wisconsin   Green  Bay  Packers   playoff  appearances   2000-­‐2010  
  10. 10. Downscaled  models  by  WICCI   Significant   increase  in   intense   storm   frequency   by  2055   WICCI  2011  
  11. 11. Historical   25%   Expected  by  2055   increase  in  intense  storm  frequency   WICCI  2011  
  12. 12. Historical   Expected  by  2055   10-­‐40%   increase  in  storm  intensity   WICCI  2011  
  13. 13. More  storms  for  warmer  Wisconsin   Historical   Expected  by  2055  
  14. 14. Historically,   Wisconsin  is   weger  in   some  areas   and  drier  in   others.  Drier   areas  may   face  added   stormwater   burden.   NOAA  
  15. 15. Historically  we’ve  already  been   geing  warmer  and  weger   Data  from  1950  to  2006:   •  Nighime  lows  temps  up  ~1-­‐4°F   •  Average  annual  day<me  highs   up  ~0.5-­‐1°F   •  Southern  precipita<on   Rainfall  over  S.  Wis.   increased  by  ~2-­‐4”   •  Northern  precipita<on   decreased  by  ~1-­‐2”   10-­‐15%   Kucharik  et  al.  2010  
  16. 16. The  past  is  no  longer  an  adequate   guide     1950  ≠  2006     Shioing  trends  mean  our  pipes  were   not  designed  or  constructed  to  convey   actual  or  expected  flows  
  17. 17. •  90  million  gallons  of  sewage  overflows  at  61  communi<es   •  700  drinking  water  wells  contaminated   •  $34  million  in  damage  claims  paid   Slide  courtesy  of  David  Liebl,  WICCI  
  18. 18. Reedsburg  2008   Baraboo  River  Flooding   Credit:  WICCI;  UW-­‐Extension  -­‐  David  S.  Liebl  and  Bill  Bland    
  19. 19. II.  Waterborne  Disease  
  20. 20. >?<   %  of  U.S.  waterborne   disease  outbreaks   (1948-­‐1994)  preceded   by  top  20%  of  most   intense  storms   Breg  Favre’s   winning  percentage   (games  won  /  total   played)  
  21. 21. 68%                      63%   Curriero  et  al.  2001   186  wins  &  112  loses  
  22. 22. Waterborne  Disease  in  U.S.   •  More  than  half  of  U.S.  waterborne  disease   outbreaks  followed  heavy  storms     •  Contaminated  water  is  responsible  for  between   6%  and  40%  of  diarrhea-­‐related  illness   •  Remember  Crypto?   –  403,000  sick   –  69  dead   –  $96  million  costs  to  society   –  $406  million  in  public  investment  as  cure   Curriero  et  al.  2001;  Gaffield  et  al.  2003;  Corso  et  al.  2003      
  23. 23. Acute  Diarrhea  (AGI)   •  10%  of  U.S.  hospital  admissions   •  300  U.S.  kids’  deaths  per  year   •  $1  billion  in  annual  costs  to  U.S.  society   •  Biggest  concern  is  for  kids  age  5  and  under   –  Less  immunity   –  Smaller  body  size   –  More  complica<ons   Elliot  2007  
  24. 24. Rela<onship  between  rain  &  diarrhea   •  11%  increase  in  AGI  ER  visits  for  kids  four  days   aoer  rainfall  (2002-­‐2007  Children’s  Hospital)   •  Associated  with  rain,  not  overflows   •  Probably  underes<mates  disease  incidence   •  These  kids  were  primarily  served  by  surface   waters,  but  highlights  role  of  rain  in   transpor<ng  pathogens   •  Pathway/s  not  iden<fied  in  this  study   Drayna  et  al.  2010  
  25. 25. Kids  seem  to  be  geing  more  sick  from   well  water  than  surface  water   •  Another  Children’s  Hospital  study   •  Top  3  illness  risk  factors  in  order  of  odds   ra<os:   –  Ill  contacts  in  the  home  (2.52)   –  Well  water  (1.38)   –  Primarily  bogled  water  (1.27)   Gorelick  et  al.  2011  
  26. 26. Viruses  in  Wisconsin  groundwater   •  Diarrhea  linked  with  sep<c  tank  proximity  in   central  Wisconsin  (Marshfield)   –  Risk  for  viral  diarrhea  increased  8%  per  addi<onal   holding  tank  per  sec<on   •  Viruses  in  pre-­‐treated  drinking  water  from   groundwater,  with  sources  both  from  river   and  elsewhere  (La  Crosse)   •  Tap  water  from  14  of  14  non-­‐disinfec<ng   communi<es  tested  posi<ve  for  viruses   Borchardt  et  al.  2003;  Borchardt  et  al.  2004;  Borchardt  et  al.  2012  
  27. 27. 2011  Wis.  Act  19   leaves  some  60   communi<es   vulnerable  by  not   requiring  municipal   well  disinfec<on.     ~65,000  people  (1.1%   of  Wis.  pop)  and   about  4,000  kids   under  age  5     U.S.  Census  Bureau   Seeley  in  Wisconsin  State  Journal,  2012  
  28. 28. That’s  just  municipal  systems   •  Popula<on  served  by  non-­‐community  public   water  systems*  and  private  wells  is  ~1.65   million  (28%  of  state  popula<on)     *Public  non-­‐municipal  systems  include  sites  like   mobile  home  parks,  hotels,  churches,  schools,  etc.   Source:  Jeff  Helmuth  
  29. 29. Viruses  in  deep  Madison  groundwater   Data  from  six  wells  from  2007  to  2009     Bradbury  et  al.  2013   How  are  they  geing  there?  
  30. 30. •  Leaky  sanitary  sewer  pipes  implicated,   transported  by  recharge  from  heavy  rains   Bradbury  et  al.  2013  
  31. 31. III.  Failing  Infrastructure  
  32. 32. Length  of  pipe   under  America   >?<   Dwight  Burdege   Distance  from   Earth  to  Moon   NASA  
  33. 33. 13  billion  feet   >   1.3  billion  feet   Dwight  Burdege   42  feet  of  pipe  per  capita   NASA  
  34. 34. Leaky  pipes   Laid   Lifespan   Replacement   1880s   1920s   1950s+   90-­‐150  yrs   100  yrs   75  yrs   1970s-­‐2030s   2020s   2025+   •  Old  sewer  pipes  leak,  pathogens  get  out,   especially  when  hydrology  is  conducive,  e.g.   when  stormwater  changes  the  game   •  Old  water  mains  break  (1  per  10  miles  per   year  or  ~800/day),  allowing  viruses  to  seep   into  municipal  distribu<on  systems   American  Water  Works  Associa<on  2012;  Folkman  2012  
  35. 35. Systemic  Vulnerability     •  Even  with  best  treatment,  if  the  distribu<on   system  is  vulnerable,  then  we  remain  at  risk   •  Proximity  of  water  and  sanitary  pipes:  WI:  8o;   other  states,  10o;  in  reality  there  is  likely   communica<on  when  groundwater  tables  rise   under  heavy  recharge  &  stormwater  flows   •  Remember  those  14  non-­‐disinfected   communi<es?  The  distribuGon  system  was   implicated  as  the  entry  point  for  viruses  from   sewage.     Lamber<ni  et  al.  2012  
  36. 36. Wisconsin’s  es<mated  20-­‐yr  needs     •  $2.5  billion  for  treatment  upgrades   •  $3.5  billion  for  distribu<on  upgrades   U.S.  EPA  2007   Wisconsin  budget  priori<es   •  $94  million  in  low-­‐interest  loans  for  drinking   water  infrastructure  (short  of  projected  20-­‐yr   need  by  a  lot)   •  State  highways  get  $3.6  billion  over  2  years   Wis  2013  Act  20  
  37. 37. Then  there  are  leaky  laterals…   Milwaukee  Metropolitan  Sewerage  District  
  38. 38. Sta<c  &  Dynamic  Dioramas   Credit:  Michael  Campbell    
  39. 39. MMSD  video  on  I/I  problem   •  hgp://www.youtube.com/watch? v=4tA7HCFF23c&list=UUe19V3fMPZ0Q9LAvv4 X0SQg&index=14   Cue  up  <me  index  1:24  –  3:46   MMSD  
  40. 40. IV.  Policy  Recommenda<ons    
  41. 41. Policy  Priori<es   Inventory  state’s  sewer  and  water   •  infrastructure  vulnerabili<es.   •  Disinfect  all  public  municipal  wells.   Codify  comprehensive  statewide  stormwater   •  design  standards.  
  42. 42. For  example:  ATCP  48.26   •  DRAINAGE  CAPACITY.  Every  district  drain   constructed  aoer  July  1,  1995  shall  be   designed  and  constructed  so  that  it  is  capable   of  removing  the  volume  of  water  from  a  10-­‐ year  24-­‐hour  rainfall  event  within  48  hours   aoer  that  rainfall  event.  For  each  county,  a  10-­‐ year  24-­‐hour  rainfall  event  is  the  amount  of   rain  shown  in  table  1  falling  in  24  hours.  
  43. 43. Funding  Priori<es   Invest  $3.5  billion  through  2027  to  bring   •  Wisconsin’s  aging  underground  infrastructure   up  to  date.     The  state  should  assist  municipali<es  in   •  incen<vizing  the  replacement  of  privately-­‐ owned  sewer  laterals.  
  44. 44. For  example:  Lateral  Replacement   Incen<ves   •  When  the  city  rips  up  the  street   •  Madison  offers  75%  of  lateral  replacement   costs  from  main  up  to  property  line   •  Marshfield  forgives  replacement  costs  of   lateral  under  public  right-­‐of-­‐way  if  private   replaced   •  90%  par<cipa<on  w/  opt-­‐out  default  
  45. 45. Research  Priori<es   Research  human  health  risks  of  stormwater   •  vs.  sewage  overflows.     Access  broader  health   ata  sets  to  clarify   •  rela<onships  between  dainfall  and  disease.   r
  46. 46. Out-­‐of-­‐box  Solu<ons?   •  Green  infrastructure  to  promote  infiltra<on   •  Waterless  toilet  infrastructure  a  la  Gates   Founda<on  Challenge  in  2012   •  Remapping  ci<es  and  towns  to  account  for   hydrology  instead  of  history  
  47. 47. Where’s  Our  Water?   Out  of  sight,  but  not  out  of  mind   Where’s  My  Water’s  lovable  alligator,  Swampy,  knows  a  thing  or  two  about  failing  pipes  
  48. 48. Where’s  My  Water?  app   •  •  •  •  •  •  Instant  gra<fica<on   Addic<ve  memes   Widely  disseminated   Youth  oriented   Makes  hidden  visible   Puts  face  to  issue   Use  as  communicaGon   tool  to  reach  your   consGtuencies   hgp://www.flashgamesplayer.com/Free/Where-­‐is-­‐my-­‐Water/Play.html  
  49. 49. Thank  you!   Michael  Campbell   Jenny  Kehl   Megan  Christenson   Sandra  McLellan   Larry  Timm   Michael  Carvan   David  Liebl   Jeff  Helmuth   Henry  “Andy”  Anderson   Kristen  Malecki   Jonathan  Patz   Deb  Dila     Randy  Metzger   Greg  Barske   Tomorra  Smith   Madeline  Gotkowitz   Marc  Borchardt   Jen  Yauck   Cheryl  Nenn   MMSD   CDC   WDPH   UWM  SFS  CWP   WICCI   Healing  Our  Waters  –  Milwaukee,  Wisconsin  –  2013  
  50. 50. Climate  Change  Exacerbates    Rain-­‐Related  Disease  Risk   Policy  Briefs   hgp://home.freshwater.uwm.edu/mclellanlab/736-­‐2/     Contact   ma<mm@uwm.edu   mcampbell@ruekert-­‐mielke.com