Confrontingg
Climate Change in the Great
       Lakes Region
         k       i
    3rd Annual Great Lakes Conference
 Hea...
Today’s Outline
         Today s
  Cli  t i    l
  Climate is already changing
                  d   h   i
    … and inter...
The Big Picture
Measured global surface temperature since 1880




    Green bars show 95%
    G     b     h
    confidence intervals




...
Models and Observation agree:
   the planet is warming
Models match observed ∆T on all
co t e ts
continents




                            IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM, 2007
Human Influences on Climate:
  3 Key Greenhouse Gases
     ey G ee ouse




                               IPCC 2001,
    ...
Increasing Confidence
IPCC 1990: The observed increase [in temperatures] could
   b l       l d   t   t   l    i bilit    ...
The Globe is Warming …
                   g

 What about the Great
   Lakes Region?
Great Lakes Region

Temps are rising, especially in winter

Winters are shorter

Spring comes earlier
 p   g

Shorter dura...
Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones
        US: 1990 - 2006
Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones
    Great Lakes: 1990 - 2006

                         1990                              ...
Great Lakes Growing Seasons
1 Nov
  Lakes and
  Rivers are           1D
                        Dec
   Freezing
  later, and
   Thawing
              ...
1 Nov
   Grand
Traverse Bay
Winter Freeze
                       1D
                        Dec

and Breakup
   Dates     ...
C er      The Big Lakes too!

                          Lake                   Lake
    ent Ice Cove

                    ...
More frequent extreme RAIN
Where are we
Wh
 heading?

Global Scale
T changes for 2x CO2
Computer
simulations of
expected warming



                     T changes for 4x CO2
Business as Usu...
Predicted Global Temperatures




                      7.2°F


                      3.2°F




                      IPCC...
Where are we
  Wh
   heading?

Great Lakes Region
Projected Climate Changes in the
    Great Lakes Region by 2100

Temperature
 Generally Warmer (esp. in winter)
 Extreme h...
Climate Warming will Impact the
    Future Weather we “Feel”
Forecast Great Lakes Growing Seasons
Projected Great Lakes Precipitation
             Changes

                    2X heavy rain events

                    Se...
Projected Impacts

Great Lakes Region
The Changing Character of Great
    Lakes Lakes Streams & Fish
          Lakes, Streams,

• Cold-water fish will decline,
...
“Dead Zones”
& Fish Kills
will increase
                     It’s b k
                       ’ back!
in shallower
regions....
The Changing Character of Great
       Lakes Forests & Wildlife
Boreal forests likely to disappear

Short-term forest prod...
Northern
Today
         movement of
         B lti
         Baltimore
         Oriole habitat




2X CO2
The Changing Character of Great
    Lakes Recreation & Tourism
Significant impacts on
multi-billion $ industry
   lti bill...
Winter is a part of our
  “Sense of Place”.
We are losing Winter as
  we once knew it.
           … John Magnuson
Climate Change Impacts Will
     Not O
         Occur in a Vacuum
Population is growing
Urbanization and sprawl
Social cha...
The Changing Character of Great
  Lakes Wetlands & Shorebirds
Earlier spring runoff, flooding, lower
water levels tough on...
Changing water levels AND regulation



   Strong regulation




  Natural fluctuation
Exacerbation of Existing Problems
         Water Resources
Reduced groundwater
recharge, small streams
likely to dry up

L...
Why are lake levels so low?
  Precipitation is normal!
Warmer Winters/Less Ice:
                                  p
                          More Evaporation
             over
...
Future Lake Michigan Levels

                              +1.0
                         m)
Annual Mean Water Level (m



...
Exacerbation of Existing Problems
         Property & Infrastructure
         P      t    I f t t
More frequent extreme st...
Exacerbation of Existing Problems
            Human H lth
            H       Health
Cold-related health problems
        ...
Summer Heat-Related Mortality for
                Current, 2020, and 2050 Climate




                                    ...
Worst Impacts Are Not Inevitable
   No-regrets solutions available now

A three-pronged approach:


Reduce our emissions

...
Minimizing OTHER Pressures
     on O Environment
         Our E i

• Air Quality Improvements

• Water Resource Protection...
Prescription for Great Lakes Ecosystem
          Protection and Restoration

 Avoiding the Tipping Point of Irreversible C...
Take Home
       Messages:

• Climate change is changing the character
  of the Great Lakes region

• Climate change will ...
Managing Climate Impacts

  But, are “we”
• Emergency Preparedness

    preparing?
• Agricultural and Forestry
       Adap...
Confrontingg
Climate Change in the Great
       Lakes Region
         k       i



    Are we prepared?
    Are we preparing?
Great Lakes Climate Global Warming Presentation
Great Lakes Climate Global Warming Presentation
Great Lakes Climate Global Warming Presentation
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Great Lakes Climate Global Warming Presentation

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A presentation regarding global warming and the impact on the Great Lakes ecosystem and economy. This was initially delivered at the press conference to announce the HOW Coalition's release of the Great Lakes Global Warming Report. Check out www.healthylakes.org for more detail.

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Great Lakes Climate Global Warming Presentation

  1. 1. Confrontingg Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region k i 3rd Annual Great Lakes Conference Healing our Waters Great Lakes Coalition Chicago, IL September 6, 2007 Don Scavia University of Michigan School of Natural Resources and Environment Michigan Sea Grant
  2. 2. Today’s Outline Today s Cli t i l Climate is already changing d h i … and interacting with other stresses g We are seeing impacts our region … expect more Are we preparing for them? (setting aside emission controls for today)
  3. 3. The Big Picture
  4. 4. Measured global surface temperature since 1880 Green bars show 95% G b h confidence intervals J. Hansen et al. 2006)
  5. 5. Models and Observation agree: the planet is warming
  6. 6. Models match observed ∆T on all co t e ts continents IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM, 2007
  7. 7. Human Influences on Climate: 3 Key Greenhouse Gases ey G ee ouse IPCC 2001, Summary for Policy Makers
  8. 8. Increasing Confidence IPCC 1990: The observed increase [in temperatures] could b l l d t t l i bilit lt ti l thi be largely due to natural variability; alternatively this variability and other man-made factors could have offset a still larger man-made greenhouse warming. IPCC 1995: The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. IPCC 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is due to human activities. IPCC 2007: Most of the observed increase in global temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
  9. 9. The Globe is Warming … g What about the Great Lakes Region?
  10. 10. Great Lakes Region Temps are rising, especially in winter Winters are shorter Spring comes earlier p g Shorter duration of ice cover Extreme rainfall events more frequent
  11. 11. Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones US: 1990 - 2006
  12. 12. Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones Great Lakes: 1990 - 2006 1990 2006 -40 to -30 ºF -40 to -30 ºF -30 to -20 ºF -30 to -20 ºF 30 20 -20 to -10 ºF -20 to -10 ºF -5 to -10 ºF Average Minimum Temperatures
  13. 13. Great Lakes Growing Seasons
  14. 14. 1 Nov Lakes and Rivers are 1D Dec Freezing later, and Thawing 1 Jan Freeze Earlier 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr Breakup 1 May 1 Jun 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 Modified from Magnuson et al. 2000
  15. 15. 1 Nov Grand Traverse Bay Winter Freeze 1D Dec and Breakup Dates 1 Jan Freeze 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr Breakup 1 May 1 Jun Modified from 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 Magnuson et al. 2000
  16. 16. C er The Big Lakes too! Lake Lake ent Ice Cove Huron Ontario 1972 2007 1972 2007 I Lake Lake Erie Michigan Perce P 1972 2007 1972 2007
  17. 17. More frequent extreme RAIN
  18. 18. Where are we Wh heading? Global Scale
  19. 19. T changes for 2x CO2 Computer simulations of expected warming T changes for 4x CO2 Business as Usual is heading us to a 4X CO2 world
  20. 20. Predicted Global Temperatures 7.2°F 3.2°F IPCC 2007
  21. 21. Where are we Wh heading? Great Lakes Region
  22. 22. Projected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes Region by 2100 Temperature Generally Warmer (esp. in winter) Extreme heat more common Growing season several weeks longer Ice cover decline will continue Precipitation Winter, spring increasing Wi t i i i Summer, fall decreasing Drier soils, more droughts i il d h More extreme events
  23. 23. Climate Warming will Impact the Future Weather we “Feel”
  24. 24. Forecast Great Lakes Growing Seasons
  25. 25. Projected Great Lakes Precipitation Changes 2X heavy rain events Seasonal shifts: More rain winter/spring Less rain summer/fall
  26. 26. Projected Impacts Great Lakes Region
  27. 27. The Changing Character of Great Lakes Lakes Streams & Fish Lakes, Streams, • Cold-water fish will decline, cool- & warm-water species move northh • Ecosystem disruptions compounded by invasions of non-native species • Summer lake stratification will increase more dead increase, dead- zones and fish kills
  28. 28. “Dead Zones” & Fish Kills will increase It’s b k ’ back! in shallower regions. i ??
  29. 29. The Changing Character of Great Lakes Forests & Wildlife Boreal forests likely to disappear Short-term forest productivity could increase Higher ozone, droughts, fires, insects could damage long-term forest health Birds breed more and earlier Raccoons, skunks, and may benefit Moose likely to suffer
  30. 30. Northern Today movement of B lti Baltimore Oriole habitat 2X CO2
  31. 31. The Changing Character of Great Lakes Recreation & Tourism Significant impacts on multi-billion $ industry lti billi i d t Millions of anglers affected by fish impacts Bird-watchers and hunters affected Summer season expanded, but more extreme heat heat, heavy downpours Winter recreation hard hit
  32. 32. Winter is a part of our “Sense of Place”. We are losing Winter as we once knew it. … John Magnuson
  33. 33. Climate Change Impacts Will Not O Occur in a Vacuum Population is growing Urbanization and sprawl Social challenges Pollution of air & water Landscape fragmentation
  34. 34. The Changing Character of Great Lakes Wetlands & Shorebirds Earlier spring runoff, flooding, lower water levels tough on wetland species Lower flood-absorbing capacity Fewer breeding sites for amphibians amphibians, shorebirds and waterfowl Shrinking wetland h bit t drying of Sh i ki tl d habitat, d i f prairie potholes
  35. 35. Changing water levels AND regulation Strong regulation Natural fluctuation
  36. 36. Exacerbation of Existing Problems Water Resources Reduced groundwater recharge, small streams likely to dry up Lake levels expected to decline Pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakes
  37. 37. Why are lake levels so low? Precipitation is normal!
  38. 38. Warmer Winters/Less Ice: p More Evaporation over cent Ice Co Perc I 1972 2007
  39. 39. Future Lake Michigan Levels +1.0 m) Annual Mean Water Level (m +1.3 ft L 0.0 Model W Range R -1.0 2090 = Lofgren et al. 2002 - 4.6 ft A -2.0 1900 1950 2000 2090 = Lofgren et al.
  40. 40. Exacerbation of Existing Problems Property & Infrastructure P t I f t t More frequent extreme storms and floods - greater property damage - bu de on emergency a age e t burden o e e ge cy management - increased clean-up and rebuilding - financial toll on businesses and homeowners Lower lake levels - shipping-related adjustments - more dredging needed
  41. 41. Exacerbation of Existing Problems Human H lth H Health Cold-related health problems p decline, while heat-related mortality will increase > 90oF Extreme heat more likely >40 days >90°F >90 > 97oF >25 days >97°F Waterborne and other infectious diseases may become more frequent or widespread
  42. 42. Summer Heat-Related Mortality for Current, 2020, and 2050 Climate Current 2020 250 2050 250 200 150 200 150 100 50 100 50 0 0 Montreal Source: WHO, 1996 Toronto Note: Does not include winter mortality. GFDL Climate Assumes no acclimatization to changed climate. Does not account for population growth. Change Scenario
  43. 43. Worst Impacts Are Not Inevitable No-regrets solutions available now A three-pronged approach: Reduce our emissions Minimize other pressures on the environment Plan and prepare to manage impacts
  44. 44. Minimizing OTHER Pressures on O Environment Our E i • Air Quality Improvements • Water Resource Protection • Habitat Protection • Urban and Land Use Planning
  45. 45. Prescription for Great Lakes Ecosystem Protection and Restoration Avoiding the Tipping Point of Irreversible Changes Interacting stresses matter Nutrient Loading We’re approaching a tipping point Over fishing O e s g Toxic Climate Cli t Chemicals Ch i l change Climate Change! g We know enough to act now Land Use Restore Hydrologic Resiliency! R ili ! Alterations Invasive Species
  46. 46. Take Home Messages: • Climate change is changing the character of the Great Lakes region • Climate change will continue to magnify g g y existing health and environmental problems • Common sense solutions/adaptations are available now -- IF WE PREPARE FOR THEM
  47. 47. Managing Climate Impacts But, are “we” • Emergency Preparedness preparing? • Agricultural and Forestry Adaptations Governments? • Public Health Improvements • Industries? Infrastructure Adjustments • Citizens? Education
  48. 48. Confrontingg Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region k i Are we prepared? Are we preparing?

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