Great Lakes Climate Global Warming Presentation

Confrontingg Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region k i 3rd Annual Great Lakes Conference Healing our Waters Great Lakes Coalition Chicago, IL September 6, 2007 Don Scavia University of Michigan School of Natural Resources and Environment Michigan Sea Grant

Today’s Outline Today s Cli t i l Climate is already changing d h i … and interacting with other stresses g We are seeing impacts our region … expect more Are we preparing for them? (setting aside emission controls for today)

The Big Picture

Measured global surface temperature since 1880 Green bars show 95% G b h confidence intervals J. Hansen et al. 2006)

Models and Observation agree: the planet is warming

Models match observed ∆T on all co t e ts continents IPCC AR4 WG1 SPM, 2007

Human Influences on Climate: 3 Key Greenhouse Gases ey G ee ouse IPCC 2001, Summary for Policy Makers

Increasing Confidence IPCC 1990: The observed increase [in temperatures] could b l l d t t l i bilit lt ti l thi be largely due to natural variability; alternatively this variability and other man-made factors could have offset a still larger man-made greenhouse warming. IPCC 1995: The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. IPCC 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is due to human activities. IPCC 2007: Most of the observed increase in global temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

The Globe is Warming … g What about the Great Lakes Region?

Great Lakes Region Temps are rising, especially in winter Winters are shorter Spring comes earlier p g Shorter duration of ice cover Extreme rainfall events more frequent

Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones US: 1990 - 2006

Changes in Plant Hardiness Zones Great Lakes: 1990 - 2006 1990 2006 -40 to -30 ºF -40 to -30 ºF -30 to -20 ºF -30 to -20 ºF 30 20 -20 to -10 ºF -20 to -10 ºF -5 to -10 ºF Average Minimum Temperatures

Great Lakes Growing Seasons

1 Nov Lakes and Rivers are 1D Dec Freezing later, and Thawing 1 Jan Freeze Earlier 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr Breakup 1 May 1 Jun 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 Modified from Magnuson et al. 2000

1 Nov Grand Traverse Bay Winter Freeze 1D Dec and Breakup Dates 1 Jan Freeze 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr Breakup 1 May 1 Jun Modified from 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 Magnuson et al. 2000

C er The Big Lakes too! Lake Lake ent Ice Cove Huron Ontario 1972 2007 1972 2007 I Lake Lake Erie Michigan Perce P 1972 2007 1972 2007

More frequent extreme RAIN

Where are we Wh heading? Global Scale

T changes for 2x CO2 Computer simulations of expected warming T changes for 4x CO2 Business as Usual is heading us to a 4X CO2 world

Predicted Global Temperatures 7.2°F 3.2°F IPCC 2007

Where are we Wh heading? Great Lakes Region

Projected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes Region by 2100 Temperature Generally Warmer (esp. in winter) Extreme heat more common Growing season several weeks longer Ice cover decline will continue Precipitation Winter, spring increasing Wi t i i i Summer, fall decreasing Drier soils, more droughts i il d h More extreme events

Climate Warming will Impact the Future Weather we “Feel”

Forecast Great Lakes Growing Seasons

Projected Great Lakes Precipitation Changes 2X heavy rain events Seasonal shifts: More rain winter/spring Less rain summer/fall

Projected Impacts Great Lakes Region

The Changing Character of Great Lakes Lakes Streams & Fish Lakes, Streams, • Cold-water fish will decline, cool- & warm-water species move northh • Ecosystem disruptions compounded by invasions of non-native species • Summer lake stratification will increase more dead increase, dead- zones and fish kills

“Dead Zones” & Fish Kills will increase It’s b k ’ back! in shallower regions. i ??

The Changing Character of Great Lakes Forests & Wildlife Boreal forests likely to disappear Short-term forest productivity could increase Higher ozone, droughts, fires, insects could damage long-term forest health Birds breed more and earlier Raccoons, skunks, and may benefit Moose likely to suffer

Northern Today movement of B lti Baltimore Oriole habitat 2X CO2

The Changing Character of Great Lakes Recreation & Tourism Significant impacts on multi-billion $ industry lti billi i d t Millions of anglers affected by fish impacts Bird-watchers and hunters affected Summer season expanded, but more extreme heat heat, heavy downpours Winter recreation hard hit

Winter is a part of our “Sense of Place”. We are losing Winter as we once knew it. … John Magnuson

Climate Change Impacts Will Not O Occur in a Vacuum Population is growing Urbanization and sprawl Social challenges Pollution of air & water Landscape fragmentation

The Changing Character of Great Lakes Wetlands & Shorebirds Earlier spring runoff, flooding, lower water levels tough on wetland species Lower flood-absorbing capacity Fewer breeding sites for amphibians amphibians, shorebirds and waterfowl Shrinking wetland h bit t drying of Sh i ki tl d habitat, d i f prairie potholes

Changing water levels AND regulation Strong regulation Natural fluctuation

Exacerbation of Existing Problems Water Resources Reduced groundwater recharge, small streams likely to dry up Lake levels expected to decline Pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakes

Why are lake levels so low? Precipitation is normal!

Warmer Winters/Less Ice: p More Evaporation over cent Ice Co Perc I 1972 2007

Future Lake Michigan Levels +1.0 m) Annual Mean Water Level (m +1.3 ft L 0.0 Model W Range R -1.0 2090 = Lofgren et al. 2002 - 4.6 ft A -2.0 1900 1950 2000 2090 = Lofgren et al.

Exacerbation of Existing Problems Property & Infrastructure P t I f t t More frequent extreme storms and floods - greater property damage - bu de on emergency a age e t burden o e e ge cy management - increased clean-up and rebuilding - financial toll on businesses and homeowners Lower lake levels - shipping-related adjustments - more dredging needed

Exacerbation of Existing Problems Human H lth H Health Cold-related health problems p decline, while heat-related mortality will increase > 90oF Extreme heat more likely >40 days >90°F >90 > 97oF >25 days >97°F Waterborne and other infectious diseases may become more frequent or widespread

Summer Heat-Related Mortality for Current, 2020, and 2050 Climate Current 2020 250 2050 250 200 150 200 150 100 50 100 50 0 0 Montreal Source: WHO, 1996 Toronto Note: Does not include winter mortality. GFDL Climate Assumes no acclimatization to changed climate. Does not account for population growth. Change Scenario

Worst Impacts Are Not Inevitable No-regrets solutions available now A three-pronged approach: Reduce our emissions Minimize other pressures on the environment Plan and prepare to manage impacts

Minimizing OTHER Pressures on O Environment Our E i • Air Quality Improvements • Water Resource Protection • Habitat Protection • Urban and Land Use Planning

Prescription for Great Lakes Ecosystem Protection and Restoration Avoiding the Tipping Point of Irreversible Changes Interacting stresses matter Nutrient Loading We’re approaching a tipping point Over fishing O e s g Toxic Climate Cli t Chemicals Ch i l change Climate Change! g We know enough to act now Land Use Restore Hydrologic Resiliency! R ili ! Alterations Invasive Species

Take Home Messages: • Climate change is changing the character of the Great Lakes region • Climate change will continue to magnify g g y existing health and environmental problems • Common sense solutions/adaptations are available now -- IF WE PREPARE FOR THEM

Managing Climate Impacts But, are “we” • Emergency Preparedness preparing? • Agricultural and Forestry Adaptations Governments? • Public Health Improvements • Industries? Infrastructure Adjustments • Citizens? Education

Confrontingg Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region k i Are we prepared? Are we preparing?

Great Lakes Climate Global Warming Presentation

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