II-SDV 2014 Hybrid Intelligence – foresight for opportunities (Youri Aksenov - Philips, The Netherlands)

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II-SDV 2014 Hybrid Intelligence – foresight for opportunities (Youri Aksenov - Philips, The Netherlands)

  1. 1. Hybrid intelligence – foresight for opportunities Dr.Youri Aksenov Royal Philips, IP&S, Business Intelligence ii-sdv,Nice, April 15, 2013
  2. 2. What is it about An intelligent guess on innovation and business opportunities that might have a chance in the future – We don't really know the future. BUT..daily routines for intelligent adaptable entities are involving predictions of how motions of environment are evolving, what new things might happen, and where it will all end up. – Drawing on laws of nature and integrating as much information as possible about a given society or system, it is possible to recognize patterns of time which will be completed sometime in the future. – Foresight: Degree of analyzing present contingencies and degree of moving the analysis of present contingencies across time and degree of analyzing a desired future state or states a degree ahead in time with regard to contingencies under control as well as degree of analyzing courses of action a degree ahead in time to arrive at the desired future state 2
  3. 3. The endeavor in generally as old as humanity (out of Eden)
  4. 4. BI group within IP&S of Royal Philips • Business intelligence (as service) is a set of theories, methodologies, architectures, and frameworks that transform raw data into valuable knowledge and intelligence solutions for business purposes. BI can help identify, develop and otherwise create new opportunities. Making use of new opportunities and implementing an effective strategy can provide a competitive market advantage and long-term viability • Business intelligence (as people) IP search Market intelligence Innovation intelligence Data services
  5. 5. Content The presentation looks at a framework that facilitates a foresight endeavor of commercial entities. The framework exploits an interlaced cooperation of human and machine intelligence and illuminates trends in technologies, innovation and business opportunities that might have a chance in the future. Core of the framework comprises scouting for information, structuring, analyzing, decision making and visualization, whereas patent and IP information used as a scaffold for the system. Design of a scaffold resembles and concords to the human way for commercial innovations including parts of new business creation thinking. The built up mass of intelligence in such a manner opens new dimensions for sense and facilitates decision making by variety of stakeholders. The presentation would open discussion on the frame work itself, interfaces along cooperation between human and machine intelligence and requirements to the machine abilities on analyses, decision making and visualization. 5
  6. 6. Motivation for Approach Where opportunities lies Big Challenge -> Research Unit Program Deep Dive -> Department Program Brain Storm -> Research project Product/Technology strategy Road mapping New Business opportunities R&D Program/Project management Innovation/Technology scouting Competitive intelligence/trends IP generation IP scouting Partnership Licensing -in/-out IP Valuation WHAT COULD BE SUITABLE SCAFFOLD ? Assisting in Broad Objective view All require or part of process for SML-term foresight
  7. 7. Foresight Methods Details • Morphological Analysis & Relevance Trees - two normative forecasting methods which start with future needs or objectives, and then seek to identify the circumstances, actions, technologies, etc. required to meet them. – A relevance tree is an analytic technique that subdivides a broad topic into increasingly smaller subtopics thereby showing „all‟ possible paths to the objective, and provides a forecast – Morphological analysis involves mapping options to obtain an overall perspective of possible solutions. • When is this method appropriate? – Relevance trees - are used: • to analyze situations in which each successive lower level involves finer distinctions or subdivisions • to identify problems and solutions, establish feasibility, select the „optimum‟ solution and deduce the performance requirements of specific policies, technologies – The purpose of morphological analysis is: • to organize information in a relevant and useful way in order to help solve a problem • stimulate new ways of thinking, used for new product development, constructing scenarios
  8. 8. Commercial Innovation process IDEO + http://www.keithbendis.com/deep_dive.html Some smell of TRIZ in it PS approach, Use of commonality in function, properties, object, action, subject
  9. 9. Quality Function Deployment, Value Proposition House The VPH is best described as a tool for alignment and understanding between several parties (e.g. marketing, R&D; sales; business), based on real (end)-user understanding. A VPH gives input to innovation/new product development, communication, services or business model.
  10. 10. Road Mapping • Market analysis tools (e.g. Experience curve, Porters five forces, SWOT, STEEP, Concept visioning and scenario building), which are used predominantly at the top layer of the roadmap for investigating the market, and deciding on requirements and needs. • Technology analysis tools (e.g. bibliometrics, soft systems methodology, patent analysis, morphology analysis, analytic hierarchy process), which are used for identifying, measuring and mapping technology, knowledge and skills capabilities. • Supporting tools (e.g. Quality function deployment, innovation matrix, matrix scoring methods) are applied to support the development of the roadmap by processing the data collected during the road mapping process. • Other important methods applied in road-mapping are technology and system readiness levels, technology foresight and intelligence, linked analysis grids, portfolio management, valuation tools, balanced scorecard, Porters value chain and TRIZ. ITRS as example of complex RM System Drivers/Design Test & Test Equipment Front End Processes Process Integration, Devices and Structures Radio Frequency and Analog/Mixed-Signal Technologies Micro-electromechanical Systems (MEMS) Photolithography IC Interconnects Factory Integration Assembly & Packaging Environment, Safety & Health Yield Enhancement Metrology Modeling & Simulation Emerging Research Devices Emerging Research Materials
  11. 11. NBC process in nutshell Experience
  12. 12. RM, Parts Optics Electronics UHP Light system Multi-Dimensional Recursive value MAP (an example) Ultra High Performance Light System OEM/ODM Need to go? Must to go? Want to go? Can go? Core Unit within an ecosystem looking for opportunities or better positioning itselfLevel N - System-Application # System-Application #+1
  13. 13. Multi-Dimensional Recursive value MAP (cont‟d) Lamps, DMD, LCD, Thermal Optics, Mechanics, Electronics Projection system LEVEL N+1 Image Projection System Information Delivery system Need to go? Must to go? Want to go? Can go? System-Application # System-Application #+1
  14. 14. Multi-Dimensional Recursive value MAP (cont‟d) Projection System Content Content delivery Content processing Presentation system LEVEL N+3 Information presentation system Education mean Need to go? Must to go? Want to go? Can go? System-Application # System-Application #+1
  15. 15. Multi-Dimensional Recursive value MAP (cont‟d) Education Means Environment Subjects Purpose Personnel Training LEVEL N+3 Military personnel training Law- Order,.. Need to go? Must to go? Want to go? Can go? System-Application # System-Application #+1
  16. 16. Transition to process of Hybrid intelligences from collection of various human processes USEful features for a framework USE OF wide scope USE OF TRIZ, Porter, Real Options thinking USE OF multi-dimensional view USE OF human adopted frameworks USE Synergy and interface to embed AI USE advantages of iterations (Ai-Hi) USE IP as intelligence gravity center, (bus) USE of sources (NPL, Pub, Com, Gov) USE self-evolving system approach USE OF Big Data (@ adequate cost) USE OF advanced visual analytics Recursive common interfaces “Who” “When” “Where” Preceding Objects/Units Core Object/Unit Succeeding Objects/Units Properties Functions Problems in-/out- Solutions in-/out- Value sources (scien.) Utilities, USP Environment spread (applications/dependencies) Inside the process and short example What How Why
  17. 17. Content The presentation looks at a framework that facilitates a foresight endeavor of commercial entities. The framework exploits an interlaced cooperation of human and machine intelligence and illuminates trends in technologies, innovation and business opportunities that might have a chance in the future. Core of the framework comprises scouting for information, structuring, analyzing, decision making and visualization, whereas patent and IP information used as a scaffold for the system. Design of a scaffold resembles and concords to the human way for commercial innovations including parts of new business creation thinking. The built up mass of intelligence in such a manner opens new dimensions for sense and facilitates decision making by variety of stakeholders. The presentation would open discussion on the frame work itself, interfaces along cooperation between human and machine intelligence and requirements to the machine abilities on analyses, decision making and visualization. 17
  18. 18. Valuation Opportunities Technology paths and spots Technology opportunity Business opportunity Phases to realize opportunity spotting Phase1Phase2Phase3 $ $ $$ $ $
  19. 19. Hybrid Process Question formulation Clarifies the topic and prepares IR material Approves the IR set and sourcing strategy Retrieves the working material Approves the WM and assigns enrichment scheme Enrich the working material Approves the enrichment and assigns construction mode Building relationship net and hierarchy, ontology Analyses the nets, maps, relations, ontology Assess Sub- Super- system Mappings Hierarchy Ontology … Assess gaps, compatibility transferability Scalability Value Map QFD‟s, VPH Zoom and collection extra information to the grown interfaces Transfer, knowledge to other frameworks Estimates and assess the value based on AI perspectives Estimates and assess the value based on HI perspectives Picture of current global state of affairs
  20. 20. Content The presentation looks at a framework that facilitates a foresight endeavor of commercial entities. The framework exploits an interlaced cooperation of human and machine intelligence and illuminates trends in technologies, innovation and business opportunities that might have a chance in the future. Core of the framework comprises scouting for information, structuring, analyzing, decision making and visualization, whereas patent and IP information used as a scaffold for the system. Design of a scaffold resembles and concords to the human way for commercial innovations including parts of new business creation thinking. The built up mass of intelligence in such a manner opens new dimensions for sense and facilitates decision making by variety of stakeholders. The presentation would open discussion on the frame work itself, interfaces along cooperation between human and machine intelligence and requirements to the machine abilities on analyses, decision making and visualization. 20
  21. 21. Knowledge consulting – Artificial expert Think before asking – initiation unit Ask the experts Help of audience Call a friend 50/50 Change the question
  22. 22. MATH Ontology Physics Chemistry Astrology Geology ….. ….. Initiation UNIT – from question to info retrieval Classical Mechanics Electricity and Magnetism Modern Physics Optics Thermodynamics Atomic physics, Acoustics, Biophysics, Communication Physics, Engineering physics, Fluid dynamics, Geophysics, Laser Physics, Materials physics, Medical physics, Nanotechnology, Optics, Optoelectronics, Photonics, Photovoltaics, Physics of computation, Plasma physics, Solid-state devices, Quantum electronics, Quantum information science, Mechanics, Kinetmatics, Dynamics, High pressure physics, Low-temperature physics, Surface Physics, Polymer physics A NEED for an “ai-expert” per domains in form of ontologies, patent/scientific corpora (tagged, chunked), TRIZ-a-like libraries, Market/Industries/Products-Nomenclature/Utilities
  23. 23. Structuring the ai-expert knowledge Absorb Accumulate Bend Break Down Change Phase Clean Compress Concentrate Condense Constrain Cool Deposit Destroy Detect Dilute Dry Evaporate Expand Extract Heat Hold Join Melt Mix Move Orient Produce Protect Purify Remove Resist Vibrate … …. Compound Field Gas Liquid Solid … … Change Decrease Increase Measure Stabilize … … Brightness Color Concentration Density Electrical Conductivity Energy Force Frequency Friction Heat Conduction Homogeneity Length Magnetic Properties Orientation Polarization Position Power Pressure Purity Rigidity Shape Sound Speed Strength Surface Area Surface Finish Temperature Translucency Viscosity Volume Weight … … FUNCTIONS OBJECTS OPERATIONS PROPERTIES Enriched via synonymy, hyponymy, hypernymy
  24. 24. Core set Bot-to-bot talk under supervision Time boundaries Space boundaries Nomenclature and Phenomena Functions Properties Most informative objects Most noisy objects Exoset 24 Can be more.. Let‟s link them
  25. 25. Enrichment UNIT – scheme an example • Bounding Semantic analysis • Creating common understandable interface • Creating hierarchy levels • Multi-facet expansion to extra knowledge • Foundation to initiation the process • Foundation for following valuations • Assistant in ecosystem construction
  26. 26. Example, document enrichment and transformation • Title- Beacon light optic i.e. massive optic, for use in beacon light for marking obstructions for e.g. aircraft navigation unit, has light emitting element placed in front of entrance surface such that light emitting from element enters optic • Abstract- The optic reduces power consumption and back-up battery capacity. The optic obtains more compact and more cost effective beacon light. The optic is easy to handle and install. The optic has high efficiency. The optic has a total internal reflective surface (4) including an optical axis (A) and connected with surface parts (3a-3c) of overlapping segments i.e. wedge like segments, of rotation symmetrical surfaces i.e. paraboloid surfaces. An entrance area includes an entrance surface (7a) for allowing light to enter the optic. The light exits the optic through an exit area (9). A light emitting element (8) is placed in front of the entrance surface such that the light emitting from the light emitting element enters the optic through the entrance area. Beacon light optic i.e. massive optic, for use in an omni-directional emitting beacon light for marking obstructions for a marine vessel and an aviation navigation unit (all claimed) i.e. aircraft navigation unit. • Claim 1- A beacon light optic, comprising: - a reflective surface having an optical axis wherein the reflective surface is composed of surface parts of at least two at least partly overlapping at least segments of rotation symmetrical surfaces; - an entrance area comprising an entrance surface for allowing light to enter the beacon light optic; - an exit area through which light exits the beacon light optic; - a light emitting element disposed in front of the entrance surface such that light emitting from the light emitting element enters the beacon light optic through the entrance area • Background… • Summary…. • DD… • IPC-F21Vxxx,F21W011,F21Y010 • USPC-362,340,315,439,108,110,126,174,248,285 • MC… 26 Original Document obtained from Patent DB
  27. 27. INDUSTRIES – Manufacture of optical instruments and photographic equipment – Manufacture of electric lighting equipment – Building completion and finishing – Renting and leasing of other personal and household goods – Growing of other perennial crops – Manufacture of wiring devices – Renting and leasing of motor vehicles – Regulation of the activities of providing health care, education, cultural services and other social services, excluding social security PRODUCT CLUSTERS – Precision Instruments, Measurement – Furniture, Music, Sports, Toys – Agriculture Forestry Fishing – Transport Equipment - Parts – Optics Watches Photo – Office Machinery – Electrical Machine Parts – Construction Buildings Bridges Plants APPLICATION – Light, obstructions, marine navigation, aircraft navigation 27 Example (cont.), document enrichment and transformation Enrichment, added: industries, product clusters, application Extracted via concordance of IPC with industry classifications (ISIC4, SIC, NAICS) Extracted via concordance of USPC with international product classification (CPC.2, HS, SITC, ISIC) Extracted from original text via NLP (natural language processing) *Travis J. Lybbert Univ.Calif, Nikolas J. Zolas US census bureau
  28. 28. Example (cont.), document enrichment and transformation At the TOP of “value chain”  Solutions:  reduces power consumption , back-up battery capacity , obtains more compact, more cost effective, easy to handle, easy to install, high efficiency  Problems:  power consumption , battery capacity , compact , cost , handle, install, efficiency  Utilities:  efficiency, cost, handle, maintenance At the BOTTOM of “value chain”  Solutions:  has total internal reflection, including optical axis , connected with surface parts, includes an entrance surface, allowing light to enter, exits the optic, placed in front entrance, enters the optic through the entrance  Problems:  Total internal reflection, optical axis, surface parts, enter, exit  Phenomena:  Total internal reflection Products in focus  Beacon, Light, Luminaire 28 Extracted from original text via NLP (natural language processing) and Boolean text processing Extracted from original text via NLP (natural language processing) Enrichment, added: problems and solutions
  29. 29. Map(s), Ontology, Hierarchy and links creation 29 A NEED for an “ai-expert” advanced in machine learning methods ontologies, patent/scientific corpora (tagged, chunked)
  30. 30. CoreSet and ExoSet Links via interfaces to Exoset
  31. 31. Iterative screening through links – Still Human intelligence Objects, properties, functions, problems, solutions.. till critical mass has enough to fulfil a certain use, need, utility A NEED for “ai-intelligence” of the complex recursive networks
  32. 32. Technology driven SPOTS to be verified • ……. *Wide spectrum of spots, many are known, many are crazy, still many are worth • …….
  33. 33. Following Analyses • Zooming into the domains, applications where the parts are originated • Analyzing the constructed QFDs of those domains • Draw gaps, needs, probabilities • Trace back the outcome into an opportunity spot to estimate probability and value • Trend towards particular opportunity becoming a cumulative impact in evolution from spotted high relevance surroundings Wrapping up the idea to the catchall view might lead to THE TREND and THE OPPORTUNITY…
  34. 34. The global trend Phenomena Functions properties objects operations Innovations Products/Industries Problems and Solutions Applications
  35. 35. Conclusions • Framework allows to discover opportunities both from Technology PUSH and Marketing PULL perspectives or link them on-fly • Multi-perspective view points • Great assistance of AI in broadening and analyzing the ocean of relevant information • DWPI vs. Original does add significant value for bridging different info sources • The NEEDS : 35 an “ai-expert” per domains in form of ontologies, patent/scientific corpora (tagged, chunked), TRIZ-a-like libraries, Market/Industries/Products-Nomenclature/Utilities an “ai-expert” advanced in machine learning methods ontologies, patent/scientific corpora (tagged, chunked) for “ai-intelligence” of the complex recursive networks/maps Recursive, Multi-point view (Mapping/Networking) for Visual analytics

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