Enterprise Architecture – Future Landscape Envisioning  Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Cons...
EA-envision SourcesStrategic Enterprise         Foresight – Strategy & Planning –   EA-envision™Management Framework      ...
Futurology Organisations                                                                                    EA-envision•  ...
EA-envision    Future Objectives•   It has long been recognised that one of the most important competitive    factors for ...
EA-envision    Future Objectives•   Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and    implementing ...
EA-envisionFuture Objectives•    Our mission is to deliver a set of products which are free-to-use at point of distributio...
EA-envision:                                   Strategic Enterprise Management Framework1.    Strategic Enterprise Managem...
EA-envisionFutures Studies Framework                                                                             Futures S...
Futures Studies FrameworkPrimary Futures Disciplines (27)                     Secondary Futures Specialties (27)Futures St...
Futures Discovery  Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting  EA-envision: Strategic Enterp...
EA-envisionThe Management of Uncertainty•   It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive    fact...
EA-envisionFutures Studies•   Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the practice and art of    postulating possible...
EA-envisionForesight•   In Futures Studies, the term " Foresight" embraces: -     –   Critical thinking concerning long-te...
EA-envisionForesight•   Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic    planning, horizon...
EA-envisionStrategic Foresight•   Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality,    coherent an...
Strategic Foresight Framework   EA-envision
EA-envisionForecasting•   Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations.    Prediction is a similar, but ...
EA-envisionRisk Management•       Risk management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through        foresigh...
EA-envisionEnterprise Risk Management Framework
EA-envisionGlobal Massive Change•   Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and    limitations. It enc...
EA-envisionSustainability•   Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or state that can be    maintained at a certa...
EA-envisionRenewable Resources•   A natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at ...
Combined heat and power (CHP)•   What is CHP?                                •   Who is it suitable for?•   Combined heat ...
Combined heat and power (CHP)•   How does CHP work?•   In its simplest form a CHP    system comprises a gas    turbine, en...
Petroleum Reservoir Simulation and Exploitation    Petroleum Reservoir depletion may take place over periods up to and exc...
Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation
Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation
Visions Of The Future                                                                     EA-envision•   Leading theoretic...
TRANSHUMANISM 2.0 Transhumanism                         2.0        Natasha Vita-More        Cultural Strategist
HistoryTrans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to expand the humancapacity for performance, supporting th...
Transhumanism —History                                    Cultural Evolution“transhuman” is used by FMTranshumans in LATra...
What is the projected or expected state of transhumanism,        and what will be the defining lines that will determine i...
Futures Studies  Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting  EA-envision: Strategic Enterpri...
Quantitative v. Qualitative Future MethodsChallenges in Applying Qualitative Future MethodsWendy Schultz – Infinite Future...
Positivists versus Futurists – design differencesChallenges in Applying Qualitative Future MethodsWendy Schultz – Infinite...
Strategists versus Scientists – research rolesStrategists                                         Scientists Positivist – ...
Possible Futures and Alternative Futures…..    Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods    Wendy Schultz – Infini...
Futurists versus Positivists – summary of differencesbetween Quantitative and Qualitative Future Methods•   Futurists     ...
Quantitative v. Qualitative Futures FrameworkPrimary Futures Disciplines (27)                     Secondary Futures Specia...
Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston   Thinking About The Future          Peter Bishop and Andy Hines“Time ...
Thinking About The Future‘ Thinking About the Future Framework•   1. Framing: This important first step enables organizati...
executives and analystsThinking About the Future• How executives and analysts can use the Thinking  About the Future Frame...
trainers and educators   Thinking About the Future   • How trainers and educators can use the Thinking     About the Futur...
The Future is…..       now!   Shaping the Future…..   The future is assumed to be “creatable” which implies that we allhav...
Stakeholder Communities…..     Foresight Stakeholders        Regulators and Legislators        Sponsors and Investors     ...
Plan Ahead     Enterprises need to take on people and resources for foresight projects : -         Business Transformation...
How Can We Think Ahead?  Some Foresight Techniques…..       Trend Analysis: – the systematic collection of data representi...
Five ways in which we can envision the future…..  Strategic – The future is creatable, planned & governed by the aspiratio...
The Eltville Model
Future Factors
Five ways that we can predict the future…..      Goal Analysis – The future will be governed by the beliefs, objectives, g...
EA-envisionGoal Analysts•   Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the    future will be dete...
How Can We Think Ahead?     Goal Analysis Techniques      Impact Analysis : – provides a simple, formal method for taking ...
Goal Analysts•   Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the future will    be determined by t...
Goal Analysts•   Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the future    will be determined by t...
Extrapolators                                                                 EA-envision•   Extrapolation - the future wi...
How Can We Think Ahead?     Extrapolation Techniques     Technology Trend Analysis – is based on the observation that  adv...
Extrapolators•   Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of the past•   Extrapolators believe that t...
Extrapolators•   Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of the past•   Gompertz Analysis is very si...
Pattern Analysts                                                         EA-envision•   Pattern Analysis – the future will...
How Can We Think Ahead?     Pattern Analysis Techniques      Analogy Analysis – is based on the observation that the patte...
Pattern Analysts•   Pattern Analysis – the future will reflect a replication of past events•   Pattern Analysts believe th...
Pattern Analysts•   Pattern Analysis – the future will reflect a replication of past events•   Pattern Analysts believe th...
EA-envisionEvolutionists Evolutionists - the future will evolve from a sequence of events and actions that are essentially...
How Can We Think Ahead?Evolutionist Techniques    Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking - techniques are founded on theobserva...
Evolutionists•   Evolutionists - the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially    unpred...
Evolutionists•   Evolutionists - the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially    unpred...
How Can We Think Ahead?Strategic Foresight Techniques   Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are ...
Strategic Foresight•   Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via    Strategic Fores...
Strategic Foresight    Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic    Fores...
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Shaping the future

  1. 1. Enterprise Architecture – Future Landscape Envisioning Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework v.10.0La fortune favorise les audacieux….. le changement les faveurs que le puits a préparées.
  2. 2. EA-envision SourcesStrategic Enterprise Foresight – Strategy & Planning – EA-envision™Management Framework Future Architecture Landscape ™Strategic Analysis Five Visions of the Future™ Technology Futures™FrameworkFutures Framework Thinking About the Future™ Peter Bishop and Andy Hines University of Houston in Texas™Eltville Model Five Views of the Future™ Future Management Group™Horizon Scanning 21 Drivers for the 21st Century™ Outsights™Applied Future Studies Infinite Futures Wendy SchultzTranshumanism Natasha Vita-More Extropy Institute, President Cultural Strategist Futurist Arts & Culture, FounderBrainstorming Advanced Kaleidoscope Businessballs.com Brainstorming© techniqueMassive Change The Massive Change Project Bruce Mau Design and the Institute Without BoundariesForesight and Precognition The Sixth Sense Kees Van der Heijden Precognition Jeffry Palmer Precognition: Sensing the Future Rita Berkowitz, Deborah S. RomaineEA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  3. 3. Futurology Organisations EA-envision• Established Management • Established Foresight, Planned and Consultancies with Foresight Practices Managed Futures Consultancies – Booze & Co – Kate Thomas & Kleyn Future Management – The Boston Group – Outsights – AT Kearney – Technology Futures Inc. (TFI) – Arthur D. Little • Emerging Futures and Horizon Scanning – McKinsey Consultancies - challengers – Monitor – Core UK – Roland Berger – The Structure Group (TSG)• Niche / Boutique Futurology • Futurology Associations and Institutes Consultancies – rising stars – Association of Professional; Futurists (APF) – Fast Future – Extropy Institute – Foresight Consulting – The European Futures Conference – future directions GmbH – The European Futures Observatory – futurestudies – Global Foresight Network – Future Management Group – Institute Without Boundaries – Future Trends – Shaping Tomorrow - The Foresight Network – Infinite Futures – The Institute for the Future – Leading Futurists – Strategic Foresight Network – Strategic Foresight Consultancy – ZUKUNFTSINSTITUT – Sutherland Consulting – ZUKUNFTSFORSCHUNG – The Futures Group – ZUKUNFTSMANAGEMENTS EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  4. 4. EA-envision Future Objectives• It has long been recognised that one of the most important competitive factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty. Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business: - – Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy – M&A Integration and Business Restructuring – Business Planning and Forecasting – Strategic Finance and Investment – Business Transformation – Programme Management – Enterprise Architecture – Enterprise Risk Management – Enterprise Performance Management – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls – Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Management EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  5. 5. EA-envision Future Objectives• Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and implementing Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks for the following subject areas – – Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy Framework – Business Planning and Forecasting Framework – Business Transformation Framework – Programme Management Framework – Enterprise Architecture Framework – Enterprise Risk Management Framework – Enterprise Performance Management Framework – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls Framework – Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Framework• This paper describes an approach fpr introducing, developing and implementing such Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  6. 6. EA-envisionFuture Objectives• Our mission is to deliver a set of products which are free-to-use at point of distribution (starter pack) that makes managing the Future much more accessible to future stakeholders (everyone…..) This may include (but is not restricted to) some or all of the following: -• Future Starter Pack • Future Framework – Introduction – Advanced Methods & Techniques – Basic Methods & Techniques – Guidelines and Best Practice• Futures Studies • Future Governance – Future Paradigms – Principles and Policies – Prediction and Futurology – Approaches and Standards – Strategists versus Futurists • Future Toolkit – Foresight – Enterprise Modelling – Forecasting • (e.g. Aris, Computas from Metis) – Horizon Scanning – Visualisation Tools – Risk Management • (e.g. Visual Paradigm) – Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis – Repository Tools – Master Plan and Future Roadmap • (e.g. Adaptive)• Future Resources – Planning / Simulation Tools • (e.g. PlanView, PlanningIT) – Templates – Statistical Analysis – Monte Carlo – CHAID – Reference Models – Analytics – Goal-seeking – Scenarios – Collaboration, Futures Organisations, Networking. & Knowledge Management – Data Mining – Propensity Modelling EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  7. 7. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework1. Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks 6. Business Strategy Development 1.1 SEM Framework Design and Development 6.1 Business Innovation 1.2 SEM Framework Deployment and Implementation 6.2 Technology Innovation2. Foresight Approaches and Methods 6.3 Strategy Discovery 2.1. Future Study Domain - Framing and Scoping 6.4 Strategy Development 2.2. Horizon Scanning and Delphi Oracle 6.5 Enterprise Performance Strategy 2.3. Strategic Envisioning and Predictive Models 6.6 Business Transformation Strategy 2.4. Possible Futures and Alternative Futures 2.5. Preferred Futures and Desired Outcomes 7. Current / Future Business Models 2.6. Strategic Forecasting and Planning 7.1 Operational Model - Process Execution, Integration & 2.7. Managed Futures Implementation and Execution Orchestration, Collaboration, Workgroups & Workflow3. Foresight Tools & Techniques 7.2 Tactical Model - Analysis, Reporting and Communication 3.1. Trend / Extrapolation Analysis 7.3 Strategic Model - Command, Control and Co-ordination 3.2. Precursor / Pattern Analysis 8. Enterprise Performance Management 3.3. Scenario / Goal Analysis 8.1. Critical Success Factors 3.4. Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century 8.2. Key Performance Indicators 3.5. Game Theory / Monte Carlo Simulation 8.3. Business Metrics 3.6. Boston Group Matrix / Five Forces / SWOT Analysis 3.7. Threat Assessment / Risk Management 9. Business Transformation 3.8. Data Mining / Statistical Analysis 9.1. Business Transition Planning4. Future Enterprise Architecture Blueprint 9.2. Business Process Management 4.1. Business Landscape Envisioning 9.3. Business Programme Planning 4.2. Application Landscape Envisioning 9.4. Business Change Management 4.3. Technology Landscape Envisioning 9.5. Organization Management 4.4. Business Roadmap Planning 9.6. Human Resource Management 4.5. Application Roadmap Planning 10. Business Programme Management 4.6. Technology Roadmap Planning 10.1. Benefits Realisation Strategy 4.7 Business Architecture Blueprint 4.7.1. Organisation Architecture Blueprint 10.2. Communications Strategy 4.7.2. Process Architecture Blueprint 10.3. Stakeholder Management Strategy 4.7.3. Data Architecture Blueprint 11. Enterprise Portfolio Management 4.7.4. Information Architecture Blueprint 11.1. Project Portfolio Management 4.8. Application Architecture Blueprint 11.2. Application Portfolio Management 4.9. Infrastructure Architecture Blueprint 11.3. Technology Portfolio Management 4.10. Architecture Visualisation, Scenarios and Simulation5. Publish Current / Future Business Master Plan 12. Publish Current / Future Enterprise Architecture
  8. 8. EA-envisionFutures Studies Framework Futures Studies Political Economic Ethnographic & Environmental Science &Strategic Sociology and Science and Futures Demographic Futures TechnologyForesight Human Futures Policy Futures Futures Horizons Human Identity. Science and Society Foundations, History History and Culture Futures and Philosophy of Political Science Economic Theory Demographics Earth Sciences 12. Outsights 17. Outsights Prediction Identity Science and Society Future Frameworks, Economic Planning Religion, Values and Bio-Technology and Paradigms, Methods Policy Studies and Strategy Beliefs Psychographics Life Sciences Medical Science & Techniques Future Strategy, Urbanisation and the Philosophy and Sustainability and Sustainability and Planning, Governance, Law Growth of Cities Ethical Studies Ethnographics Renewable Renewable Forecasting, and Order 21. Outsights Resources (1) Resources (2) Modelling & Analysis Urbanisation Peace and Conflict Shaping the Future - Corporate Finance Nano-Technology Studies Psychology and Global Massive Planned and and Strategic Biographics and 1. Outsights War, Patterns of Behaviour Change Managed Outcomes Investment Artificial Intelligence Terrorism, Security Financial Markets Transhumanism Threat Assessment & Information and Military Science and Traded The Arts Risk Management Communication Instruments Natasha Vita-Moore Innovation and Business Communications and Weapons and Entrepreneurial Administration Media Studies Countermeasures Studies Futures Collaboration Networking & Cosmology and Knowledge Space Science Management
  9. 9. Futures Studies FrameworkPrimary Futures Disciplines (27) Secondary Futures Specialties (27)Futures Studies History and Analysis of PredictionAlternative Futures Critical and Evidence-Based ThinkingFuture Foundations and Foresight Frameworks Probabilistic (Statistical) PredictionPlanning and Strategy (foundation & advanced) Forecasting and Modelling (foundation and advanced)Ethnographic / Demographic Futures Geo-demographic Profiling and Actuarial ScienceStrategic Foresight Threat Assessment and Risk ManagementScenario Analysis Scenario Development and Back-castingMarket Analysis and Prediction Corporate Finance and Long-Term / Strategic InvestmentEnvironmental / Horizon Scanning Geography, Sociology, Demographics and Social ChangePattern Analysis and Extrapolation Urban and Long-Range Infrastructure PlanningScience and Technology Futures Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship StudiesSystems and Technology Trends Analysis Cross Impact and Pattern AnalysisEnvironment, Ecology and Sustainability Studies Future Landscape Envisioning. Planning and MappingEmerging Issues / Technology Trends Analysis Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market ResearchKnowledge Management and Decision Support Collaboration, FacilitationPredictive Envisioning Intuition and Pre-cognitionDevelopment and Acceleration Studies Linear Systems StudiesMassive Global Change Complex Systems, Chaos Theory, Human Impact AnalysisCritical Futures and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Peace and Conflict Studies, Military ScienceCognitive and Positive Psychology Personal Futures / Foresight DevelopmentForesight, Intuition and Pre-cognition Predictive Surveys / Delphi OraclePolitical Science and Policy Studies Leadership Studies, Religious Studies (Future Beliefs)Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line ManagementSociology, Philosophy and Evolution Studies Trans-humanism, Ethics and Values StudiesIntegral Studies and Future Thinking Weak Signals and WildcardsVisioning, Intuition, and Creativity Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film & ArtsBio-Technology and Quantum Science Science Fiction and Images of the Future
  10. 10. Futures Discovery Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management FrameworkAprès la tempête cest calme….. plus ça change, plus cest la même chose. “Take hold of your future - or your future will take hold of you…..” (Patrick Dixon - Futurewise. 2005)
  11. 11. EA-envisionThe Management of Uncertainty• It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty.• Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business.• Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and implementing strategic enterprise management frameworks for – – Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy – Business Planning and Forecasting – Business Transformation – Enterprise Architecture – Enterprise Risk Management – Enterprise Performance Management – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  12. 12. EA-envisionFutures Studies• Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the practice and art of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures . Futures studies (colloquially called "Futures" by many of the fields practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends.• Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying yesterdays and todays changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, bets and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures.• Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, strategic foresight, futurology, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, futuribles (in France, the latter is also the name of the important 20th century foresight journal published only in French), and prospectiva (in Spain and Latin America). Futures studies (and one of its sub-disciplines, strategic foresight) are the academic fields most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world.
  13. 13. EA-envisionForesight• In Futures Studies, the term " Foresight" embraces: - – Critical thinking concerning long-term policy development, – Debate and consultation to create wider stakeholder participation, – Shaping the future - by influencing public policy and strategic direction• Foresight is being applied to strategic activities in the public as well as the private sector, and underlines the need to link every activity or project with any kind of future dimension to action today in order to make a planned, integrated future impact (“shaping the future”).• Foresight differs from much futures research and strategic planning. It encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components mentioned above, which may be recast as: - – futures (forecasting, forward thinking, perspectives), – planning (strategic analysis, priority setting), and – networking (participatory, dialogic) tools and orientations.• Much futures research has been academic, but Foresight programmes were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the normal bounds and gather widely distributed intelligence
  14. 14. EA-envisionForesight• Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, horizon scanning and futures studies - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, global design, science and technology policy, and analysis of "critical technologies“ and “cultural evolution".• Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight - Delphi surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from the futures field. So does the fact that Foresight is concerned with: - – The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there are some exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is action-oriented (the planning link) it will rarely be oriented to perspectives beyond a few decades out (though where decisions like aircraft design, power station construction or other major infrastructural decisions are concerned, then the planning horizon may well be half a century). – Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often Foresight will construct multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be known as positive visions, success scenarios, aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of the output of Foresight work, with the decision about what fuure to build being left to other mechanisms.
  15. 15. EA-envisionStrategic Foresight• Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287).• Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled – Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. – Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  16. 16. Strategic Foresight Framework EA-envision
  17. 17. EA-envisionForecasting• Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data.• Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period.• Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction. Forecasting is used in the practice of in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process.• Forecasting is commonly used in discussion of time-series data. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  18. 18. EA-envisionRisk Management• Risk management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through foresight and planning. A risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related threats) managed through a sequence of activities using various resources: - • Risk Research – Risk Identification – Risk Prioritization – Risk Assessment – Risk Management Strategies – Risk Planning – Risk Mitigation• Risk management strategies may include: - – transferring the risk to another party – avoiding the risk – reducing the negative effect of the risk – accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk .• In an ideal risk management scenario, a prioritization process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurring to be handled first - and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled in descending order• In practice this prioritization can be challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall threat of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss - versus risks with higher potential loss but lower probability of occurrence - can often be misleading.
  19. 19. EA-envisionEnterprise Risk Management Framework
  20. 20. EA-envisionGlobal Massive Change• Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and geology are dominated by human manipulation: - – Human impact is now the major factor in climate change. – Species extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian mass extinction event – in which 90% of all species were eliminated – Man now moves more rock and earth than do all geological processes.
  21. 21. EA-envisionSustainability• Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or state that can be maintained at a certain level indefinitely. The term, in its environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems, such as the planets climatic system, systems of agriculture, industry, forestry, fisheries, and the systems on which they depend. In recent years, public discourse has led to a use of "sustainability" in reference to how long human ecological systems can be expected to be usefully productive. In the past, complex human societies have died out, sometimes as a result of their own growth-associated impacts on ecological support systems. The implication is that modern industrial society, which continues to grow in scale and complexity, will also collapse.• The implied preference would be for systems to be productive indefinitely, or be "sustainable." For example, "sustainable agriculture" would develop agricultural systems to last indefinitely; "sustainable development" can be a development of economic systems that last indefinitely, etc. A side discourse relates the term sustainability to longevity of natural ecosystems and reserves (set aside for other-than-human species), but the challenging emphasis has been on human systems and anthropogenic problems, such as anthropogenic climate change, or the depletion of fossil fuel reserves. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  22. 22. EA-envisionRenewable Resources• A natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a rate comparable or faster than its rate of consumption by humans or other users. Solar radiation, tides, winds and hydroelectricity are perpetual resources that are not in danger of being consumed at a rate in excess of their long-term availability or renewal.• The term renewable resource also has the implication of sustainability of handling and absorption of waste products by the natural environment.• Nuclear Fission supports Low Carbon Generation but carries with it problems of both renewability and sustainability. Nuclear Fusion is both renewable and sustainable.• Some natural renewable resources such as geothermal, fresh water, timber, and biomass must be carefully managed to avoid exceeding the environments capacity to replenish them. A life cycle assessment provides a systematic evaluation of renewability.• Petroleum, coal, natural gas, diesel, are commodities derived from fossil fuels and are non-renewable. Unlike fossil fuels, a renewable resource can have a sustainable yield.• Renewable resources may also mean commodities such as wood, paper, and leather.• Solar power is the energy derived directly from the Sun. It is the most abundant source of energy on Earth. It is captured by photovoltaic cells, or by using sunlight to heat water. The Sun ignited about 4.6 billion years ago and will continue for another 5 billion years.• Wind power is derived from uneven heating of the Earths surface from the Sun and the warm core. Most modern wind power is generated in the form of electricity by converting the rotation of turbine blades into electrical current by means of an electrical generator. In windmills (a much older technology) wind energy is used to turn mechanical machinery to do physical work, like crushing grain or pumping water.• Hydropower, energy derived from the movement of water in rivers and oceans (or other energy differentials), can likewise be used to generate electricity using turbines, or can be used mechanically to do useful work. It is a very common resource.
  23. 23. Combined heat and power (CHP)• What is CHP? • Who is it suitable for?• Combined heat and power (CHP), also • CHP can be used throughout the known as co-generation, is the commercial, industrial and public sectors. generation and exploitation of both Larger, tailor-made systems are particularly heat and power (usually in the form of suited to applications where there is a high electricity) from the same equipment heat demand, such as hospitals, leisure set, in the same place, at the same centres, hotels and industrial sites with time. process heating requirements (especially chemical, brewing and paper industries).• Not only does CHP enable the conversion of a high proportion of • Some industrial processes which use hot otherwise waste heat to usable heat, water or steam are suited to small scale but it is very efficient because power is (<1MW) CHP, including the following generated close to where it is being sectors: chemicals; textiles and leather; used (and thus electricity transmission food and drink; rubber and plastics; losses are minimised). The engineering; and agriculture/horticulture. predominant fuel used for CHP schemes is natural gas (62% in 2000). • For a site to support a successful CHP Other fuels include oil, coal or even installation, it should typically have a heat renewables (such as municipal and and power requirement for at least 4,500 industrial waste, sewage gases, hours/year (although it could be cost- biogases, from anaerobic digestion, effective with fewer operating hours). biodiesel, gasification etc and wood). Generally, the greater the annual period of demand, then the greater the benefits…..
  24. 24. Combined heat and power (CHP)• How does CHP work?• In its simplest form a CHP system comprises a gas turbine, engine or steam turbine to drive an alternator.• The resulting electricity is used primarily on-site. The waste heat, in the form of steam or hot water, is collected and can be used to provide heat for industrial processes, for community heating and for space heating. It can also provide cooling - using advanced absorption cooling technology.• Systems vary considerable in size, from micro turbines (<50 kW) to many MW of electrical output
  25. 25. Petroleum Reservoir Simulation and Exploitation Petroleum Reservoir depletion may take place over periods up to and exceeding 30 years….. • Reservoir Simulation • Reservoir Exploitation – The Grid System – Economic Modelling for Oil & Gas – The Well Model Production – Conservation Equations – Geological Science – Geological Mapping, Log Data – Transient Well Logging and Spatial Analysis – Open Hole Logging – Reservoir Modelling and – Production Logging Typological Characterization – Subsurface Reservoir Geology • Aquifers – Exploration Geophysics • Salt Domes – Reservoir Mapping – Model Initialization – Reservoir Modelling • Prediction Runs • History Matching – Heavy Oil Technology – Exploitation Modelling – Enhanced Oil and Gas Recovery • Depletion Options • Water flooding – Reservoir Analysis • Extraction Rates – Recovery Prediction • Recovery Extents – Injection Design – Enhanced Recovery Techniques • Gas displacement • Water Injection – Reservoir Analysis • Gas Injection – Recovery Prediction – Injection DesignTypical Petroleum Recovery was 35% until Enhanced Recovery Techniques drove up to and over 65%…..
  26. 26. Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation
  27. 27. Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation
  28. 28. Visions Of The Future EA-envision• Leading theoretical physicist and futurist Dr Michio Kaku explores the cutting edge science of today, tomorrow, and beyond. He argues that the human race is at a tipping point in its history. In this century, we are going to make the historic transition from the Age of Discovery to the Age of Mastery, a period in which humans move from being passive observers of nature to its active choreographers - where human impact dominates climate, the environment, ecology and geology. This will give us not only unparalleled opportunities but also great responsibilities - with the possibility of both utopian and dystopian future outcomes.• 1. The Intelligence Revolution Kaku explains how artificial intelligence will revolutionise homes, workplaces and lifestyles, and how virtual worlds will become so realistic that they will rival the physical world. Robots with human-level intelligence may finally become a reality, and in the ultimate stage of mastery, well even be able to merge our minds with machine intelligence – man-machine.• 2. The Biotech Revolution Genetics and biotechnology promise a future of unprecedented health and longevity: DNA screening could prevent many diseases, gene therapy could cure them and, thanks to lab- grown organs, the human body could be repaired as easily as a car, with spare parts readily available. Ultimately, the ageing process itself could be slowed or even halted.• 3. The Quantum Revolution The quantum revolution could turn many ideas of science fiction into science fact - from meta- materials with mind-boggling properties like invisibility through limitless quantum energy and room temperature superconductors to Arthur C Clarkes space elevator. Some scientists even forecast that in the latter half of the century everybody will have a personal fabricator that re- arranges molecules to produce everything from almost anything. Yet how will we ultimately use our mastery of matter? Like Samson, will we use our strength to bring down the temple? Or, like Solomon, will we have the wisdom to match our technology?
  29. 29. TRANSHUMANISM 2.0 Transhumanism 2.0 Natasha Vita-More Cultural Strategist
  30. 30. HistoryTrans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to expand the humancapacity for performance, supporting the use of future science and technology toenhance human capabilities and qualities – and to overcome undesirable andunnecessary aspects of the present human condition. 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Trans-humanism – arose out of an inspirational dream that a handful of unrelatedforward thinkers shared and came together to realize. Transhumanism, like othercultures of society, grew into the global culture it is today. But what is the projectedor expected state of transhumanism, and what will be the defining lines that willdetermine if it will or can become a powerful driving force of the future?Natasha Vita-More - Cultural Strategist
  31. 31. Transhumanism —History Cultural Evolution“transhuman” is used by FMTranshumans in LATranshuman Arts StatementBreakthroughs – TransCenturyTranshuman Update airs Early 1980sTerm “Extropy” is createdTerms “Transhumanist and Mid 1980s“Transhumanism” are used Late 1980sExtropy: Journal of TranshumanistThought emerges Early 1990sExtropy Institute develops Mid 1990sExtropians email list developsExtro Conferences are held Late 1990sAleph develops transhumanistResources in SwedenTranshumanist FAQ written“Introduction to Transhumanism”writtenTranscedo develops inNetherlandsTransVision Conference is heldDe:Trans develops in GermanyWTA develops
  32. 32. What is the projected or expected state of transhumanism, and what will be the defining lines that will determine if it will or can become a powerful driving force of the future?Sustainable Transhumanism Probable future Current Actions situation necessary Possible future Natasha Vita-More - Cultural Strategist
  33. 33. Futures Studies Foresight – Strategy & Planning – Future Landscape – Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management FrameworkChangement est vieux comme le monde….. changement est aussi vieux que le temps.
  34. 34. Quantitative v. Qualitative Future MethodsChallenges in Applying Qualitative Future MethodsWendy Schultz – Infinite Futures• Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods• Positivists versus Futurists – a dichotomy• Strategists versus Scientists – research roles• Overview of Applied Future Studies – Key Components – Common Research Tools• Common Research Design Challenges – Choices - decision making & options selection – Common misunderstanding in the evaluation and selection of the methods available – Problems with method application & execution – Errors in interpretation & communication – Flaws in analysis & reportingWendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  35. 35. Positivists versus Futurists – design differencesChallenges in Applying Qualitative Future MethodsWendy Schultz – Infinite Futures• Theory Formation v. Futures Articulation• Reductionism v. Systemic and Holistic• Experimental v. Descriptive• Linear Systems v. Complex and Chaotic Systems• Predictive v. Exploratory• Repeatable Results v. Insights• Hard Facts v. Soft Alternatives• Value Neutral v. Value DrivenWendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  36. 36. Strategists versus Scientists – research rolesStrategists Scientists Positivist – articulating a single, preferred Futurist – assessing possible, probable and vision of the future. The future will conform to alternative futures offering those conditions preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal which best fit our strategic goals / objectives future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. for achieving a preferred future. We select those futures which best support our desired• Objective v. Subjective outcomes, goals and objectives for further• Observation v. Facilitation / Participation and more detailed analysis and investigation.• Knowledge Revelation v. Change Agent• Reporting v. Performing• Future Studies assumes that the objective of exploring multiple possible outcomes is to help people create the futures that they desire: - active, value-focussed researchWendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  37. 37. Possible Futures and Alternative Futures….. Challenges in Applying Qualitative Future Methods Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures Wendy Schultz – Infinite Futures • Firstly, assessing the probability of any given image of the future actually occurring must of necessity be an ongoing process: as trends and emerging issues of change• Alternative Possibilities grow, transform, plateau, and collapse over time, the probability of a possible outcome, or possible future, may vary over time.• Reality is non-liner – that is, chaotic – Hence the need for ongoing identification and thus it is impossible to predict and monitoring of the indicators of change.• Possible Futures emerge from the • Secondly, evaluating any given image of interplay of current trends and the future as aligning more or less closely emerging factors of change with the enterprise mission and vision statement is important in assessing which• This, again, articulates an exaggerated futures offer conditions that best fit strategic perspective to make the point that the goals and objectives in achieving a desired interrelationship between linear and outcome – a preferred future (Futurism) – non-linear systems demonstrates the however, that evaluation of a possible set of case that future reality is generated by future conditions as preferable is NOT THE the interaction of uncertainty with the SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a preferred present set of conditions and trends vision of the future (Positivism).
  38. 38. Futurists versus Positivists – summary of differencesbetween Quantitative and Qualitative Future Methods• Futurists • Positivists – Quantitative – Qualitative – Analytic – Visionary – Objective – Subjective – Observation – Facilitation / Participation – Hypothesis Formation – Futures Articulation – Predictive – Exploratory – Theory Construction – Outcome Anticipation – Experimental – Descriptive – Complex / Chaotic Systems – Linear Systems – Repeatable Results – Insights – Model Driven – Intuitive – Hard Facts – Soft Alternatives – Reporting – Performing – Knowledge Revelation – Change Agent – Value Neutral – Value Driven – Reductionism – Systemic and HolisticWendy Schultz – Infinite Futures
  39. 39. Quantitative v. Qualitative Futures FrameworkPrimary Futures Disciplines (27) Secondary Futures Specialties (27)Future Foundations and Foresight Frameworks Probabilistic (Statistical) PredictionPlanning and Strategy (foundation & advanced) Forecasting and Modelling (foundation and advanced)Ethnographic / Demographic Futures Geo-demographic Profiling and Actuarial ScienceStrategic Foresight Threat Assessment and Risk ManagementScenario Analysis Scenario Development and Back-castingMarket Analysis and Prediction Corporate Finance and Long-Term / Strategic InvestmentEnvironmental / Horizon Scanning Geography, Sociology, Demographics and Social ChangePattern Analysis and Extrapolation Urban and Long-Range Infrastructure PlanningScience and Technology Futures Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship StudiesSystems and Technology Trends Analysis Cross Impact and Pattern AnalysisEnvironment, Ecology and Sustainability Studies Future Landscape Envisioning. Planning and MappingEmerging Issues / Technology Trends Analysis Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market ResearchKnowledge Management and Decision Support Collaboration, FacilitationStrategic Foresight Intuition and Pre-cognitionDevelopment and Acceleration Studies Linear Systems StudiesMassive Change Complex Systems, Chaos Theory, Human ImpactFutures Studies History and Analysis of PredictionAlternative Futures Critical and Evidence-Based ThinkingCritical Futures and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Peace / Conflict StudiesCognitive and Positive Psychology Personal Futures / Foresight DevelopmentForesight, Intuition and Pre-cognition Predictive Surveys / Delphi OraclePolitical Science and Policy Studies Leadership Studies, Religious Studies (Future Beliefs)Ethics of Emerging Technology Studies Socially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line ManagementSociology, Philosophy and Evolution Studies Trans-humanism, Ethics and Values StudiesIntegral Studies and Future Thinking Weak Signals and WildcardsVisioning, Intuition, and Creativity Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film & ArtsBio-Technology and Quantum Science Science Fiction and Images of the Future
  40. 40. Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston Thinking About The Future Peter Bishop and Andy Hines“Time present and time past are both perhaps contained in time future and time future contained in time past…..” T. S. Elliott
  41. 41. Thinking About The Future‘ Thinking About the Future Framework• 1. Framing: This important first step enables organizations to define the scope and focus of problems requiring strategic foresight. By taking time at the outset of a project, the team analyzing a problem can clarify the objective and determine how best to address it.• 2. Scanning: Once the team is clear about the boundaries and scope of an activity, it can scan the internal and external environments for relevant information and trends.• 3. Forecasting: Most organizations, if not challenged, tend to believe the future is going to be pretty much like the past. When the team probes the organization’s view of the future, they usually find an array of unexamined assumptions that tend to converge around incremental changes.• The task, then, is to challenge this view and prod the organization to think seriously about the possibility that things may not continue as they have—and in fact, rarely do. Considering a range of potential futures is the only sure-fire way to develop robust strategies that will position the organization securely for any future that may occur.• 4. Visioning: After forecasting has laid out a range of potential futures, visioning comes into play—generating the organization’s ideal or “preferred” future and starting to suggest stretch goals for moving toward it.• 5. Planning: This is the bridge between the vision and the action. Here, the team translates what could be into strategies and tactics that will lead toward the preferred future.• 6. Acting: This final phase is largely about communicating results, developing action agendas, and institutionalizing strategic thinking and intelligence systems, so the organization can nimbly and continually respond to the changing external environment. Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston
  42. 42. executives and analystsThinking About the Future• How executives and analysts can use the Thinking About the Future Framework – Design strategic foresight projects – Develop robust strategies that can stand up to a wide range of possible, plausible, probable and preferred future outcomes – Find how-to answers to specific tasks – Provide a refresher for experienced practitioners – Adopt guidelines for excellence as an organization Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston
  43. 43. trainers and educators Thinking About the Future • How trainers and educators can use the Thinking About the Future Framework – Examine the important tenets of futurist theory and research – Understand how futurist thinking can powerfully strengthen an organization’s strategic thinking and acting on a day-to-day basis – Obtain a strong intellectual foundation preparing for careers in corporate foresight, strategy, planning or management consulting – Interact with analysts and role play strategic futures in order to challenge, influence, modify or corroborate their own assumptionsPeter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston
  44. 44. The Future is….. now! Shaping the Future….. The future is assumed to be “creatable” which implies that we allhave choices to make which influence future outcomes. The future is assumed to be “achievable” which implies that we needthe appropriate resources and capabilities to deliver the future vision. The future is assumed to be “predictable” which implies that we haveto be clear about those factors that we can understand, model, influenceand predict – and those factors with unseen or hidden influences. The future is assumed to be “viewable” which implies that we needforesight and vision to look into the future. Finally, just as the past has influenced the present - the past is thekey to the future. This implies that we need a historic perspective inorder to be able to analyse and extrapolate future patterns and trends.“Time present and time past are both perhaps contained in time future and time future contained in time past…..” T. S. Elliott
  45. 45. Stakeholder Communities….. Foresight Stakeholders Regulators and Legislators Sponsors and Investors Entrepreneurs and Innovators Domain Specialists Subject Matter Experts Professional Practitioners Consultants and Advisors Planners and Strategists Architects and Designers Project Managers and Developers Everyone…..EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  46. 46. Plan Ahead Enterprises need to take on people and resources for foresight projects : - Business Transformation Technology & Project Portfolio Management Human Resources Management We need a strategic plan to realize the vision of the future state: - Vision and Mission Statements Strategies and Outcomes Goals and Objectives Strategic Drivers, Requirements and Constraints: - We need a set of strategic priorities to commit the vision into action Business Transformation and Change Programmes Project Portfolio Management Technology Enablers and “Quick Wins” We need Enterprise Performance Management to monitor our efforts: - Critical Success Factors to indicate our successes Key Performance Indicators to check our performance Balanced Scorecard to demonstrate our achievementEA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  47. 47. How Can We Think Ahead? Some Foresight Techniques….. Trend Analysis: – the systematic collection of data representing trends for everything that is happening in the world around us today. Precursor analysis: – analysis of events as they unfold and develop over time - emergence, growth, transformation, plateau, maturity and collapse - from the past, through the present and on into the future. Scenario analysis: – time series of possible and plausible scenarios representing probable trends or events that could occur in the future. Game theory: – a branch of applied mathematics also used in the arts and social sciences (political science, philosophy and economics), in biology and evolution, computer modelliing & cybernetics and in military science. Also, see the related subject - Lanchester theory. Strategic Foresight – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are described and defined via Strategic Envisioning and the future is determined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic, attainable and achievable. Thus the future will conform to our preferred options - and our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled Massive Global Change: – Massive Global Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and geology are massively dominated by human intervention and manipulation.EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  48. 48. Five ways in which we can envision the future….. Strategic – The future is creatable, planned & governed by the aspirations, actions,goals and beliefs of key individuals, organizations and institutions shaping the future. Assumptive – The probable future will reflect our current designs and assumptions -thus by replication and continuation of the past, realising our predicted future state. Opportunistic – The future world state will emerge from a series of random andunpredictable actions and events under conditions of severe competition for scarceresources - so that future outcomes tend to favour the fittest and the most brave , themost competitive, the best prepared - and the most versatile, flexible and adaptive. Visionary – Future outcomes, goals and objectives may be envisioned as: - Positivist – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. Future strategy is designed, planned and managed. Futurist – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures offering those conditions which best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving our preferred future. Selecting those futures which best support our desired vision, outcomes, goals and objectives for further more detailed analysis / investigation. Surprising – The future will be shaped by an inexorable amalgam of complex trends,random actions, erratic responses and unpredictable events, thus the future is volatileand enigmatic - and it will be amazing…..
  49. 49. The Eltville Model
  50. 50. Future Factors
  51. 51. Five ways that we can predict the future….. Goal Analysis – The future will be governed by the beliefs, objectives, goals and orchestrated actions of various influential, and coordinated key individuals, groups, organizations and institutions - thus can be predicted by the analysis of such groups. Extrapolation and Pattern Analysis – The past is the key to the future – the future will develop as a logical extension and extrapolation of historic events and trends. As the future unfolds it is an extension of the past – so represents a replication and continuation of historic events, patterns, cycles and trends. Adaptation – The future will evolve from a series of events and actions that, as they emerge, unfold and develop - are essentially responses to competitive pressure, massive global change and population growth with increasing scarcity of resources. Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so the future becomes realistic and achievable. The future may comply with preferred options - and thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes may be fulfilled. Intuition – The future may be implied via an intuitive assimilation and cognitive filtering of inexorable trends, random and chaotic actions and unpredictable events – however, the future is still largely volatile, indeterminate, uncertain and enigmatic.EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  52. 52. EA-envisionGoal Analysts• Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the future will be determined by the beliefs and actions of various individuals, organizations, and institutions.• The future is, therefore, susceptible to modification and change by these entities. Thus, the future can best be projected by examining the stated and implied goals of various decision-makers and trend setters, by evaluating the extent to which each can affect future trends and events, and by evaluating what the long-term results of their actions will become. “Il ne faut jamais sortie la bateau” EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  53. 53. How Can We Think Ahead? Goal Analysis Techniques Impact Analysis : – provides a simple, formal method for taking into account the fact that, in a complex society such as ours, trends, events, and decisions often have consequences that are neither intended nor foreseen. Content Analysis : – is founded on the concept that the relative importance of social, political, commercial and economic issues are reflected by the amount of media attention the issue receives . Stakeholders Analysis : – is a formal method for taking account of the influence that various individuals and institutions can have on the way the future develops. It explicitly identifies those people and organizations . Patent Analysis – is based on the presumption that increased interest in new technologies, together with conviction of their practicality and appeal, will be reflected in increased R&D activityEA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  54. 54. Goal Analysts• Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the future will be determined by the beliefs and actions of various individuals, organizations, and institutions.• The future is, therefore, susceptible to modification and change by these entities. Thus, the future can best be projected by examining the stated and implied goals of various decision-makers and trend setters, by evaluating the extent to which each can affect future trends and events, and by evaluating what the long-term results of their actions will become.• Impact Analysis provides a simple, formal method for taking into account the fact that, in a complex society such as ours, trends, events, and decisions often have consequences that are neither intended nor foreseen. The technique combines the use of left brain and right brain thinking to project the secondary, tertiary, and higher order impacts and implications of such occurrences. Results are qualitative in nature, and the technique is often used to analyze potential consequences of projected technical advances or to determine areas in which forecasting efforts could best be directed.• Content Analysis is founded on the concept that the relative importance of social, political, commercial and economic issues are reflected by the amount of media attention the issue receives. Thus, by measuring, over time, changes in such factors as column- inches in newspapers, time allocated on television, and, more recently, number of items on the Internet, forecasters can project the direction, nature, and rate of change. In the technical arena, this technique can, to some degree, be used to project advances in new technologies, as well as growing market attraction. The results of use of this technique are often displayed in a quantitative format. However, they are typically used only for qualitative analysis.
  55. 55. Goal Analysts• Goal Analysts (e.g. the Club of Rome, Aspen Institute) believe that the future will be determined by the beliefs and actions of various key individuals, organizations, and institutions.• The future is, therefore, susceptible to modification and change by these entities. Thus, the future can best be projected by examining the stated and implied goals of various decision-makers and trend setters, by evaluating the extent to which each can affect future trends and events, and by evaluating what the long-term results of their actions will become.• Stakeholders Analysis is a formal method for taking account of the influence that various individuals and institutions can have on the way the future develops. It explicitly identifies those people and organizations, internal and external, that have a "stake" in particular decisions, projects, or programs; analyzes the importance that each individual or group assign to these issues; and the relative influence that they may have on developments. The results from this technique are normally semi- quantitative. The technique is often used to test the validity of forecasts that might be impacted by unexpected opposition or support.• Patent Analysis is based on the presumption that increased interest in new technologies, together with conviction of their practicality and appeal, will be reflected in increased R&D activity, and that this, in turn, will be reflected by increased patent activity. Thus, it is presumed that one can both identify new technology opportunities and assess the state of development of given technologies by analyzing the pattern of patent application in appropriate fields. Results from the application are often presented in quantified terms; however, their use in decision-making is normally based on a qualitative evaluation.
  56. 56. Extrapolators EA-envision• Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of the past• Extrapolators believe that the future will represent a logical extension of the past. Large scale, inexorable forces will drive the future in a continuous, reasonably predictable manner, and one can, therefore, best forecast the future by identifying past trends and extrapolating them in a reasoned and logical manner.• Massive Global Change – Massive Global Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment and geology are dominated by human manipulation: - – Human impact is now the major factor in climate change. – Species Extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian mass extinction event – in which 90% of all species were eliminated – Man now moves more rock and earth than geological processes. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  57. 57. How Can We Think Ahead? Extrapolation Techniques Technology Trend Analysis – is based on the observation that advances in technologies tend to follow an exponential improvement process Fisher-Pry Analysis – is a mathematical technique used to project the rate of market adoption of superior new technologies Gompertz Analysis – is very similar in concept to Fisher-Pry Analysis, except that it better models adoptions that are driven by the desirability, attractiveness and superiority of the new technology Growth Limit Analysis – utilizes a mathematical formulation known as the Pearl Curve to project the pattern in which maturing technologies will approach development limits Learning Curve techniques – are based on the fact that, as more and more items of a given type are produced, the price of production tends to decrease at a predictable rateEA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  58. 58. Extrapolators• Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of the past• Extrapolators believe that the future will represent a logical extension of the past. Large scale, inexorable forces will drive the future in a continuous, reasonably predictable manner, and one can, therefore, best forecast the future by identifying past trends and extrapolating them in a reasoned, logical manner.• Technology Trend Analysis is based on the observation that advances in technologies tend to follow an exponential improvement process. The technique uses early improvement data to establish the rate of progress and extrapolates that rate to project the level of progress at various times in the future. Results produced by this technique are typically highly quantitative. In practice, this technique is typically used to forecast developments such as the speed of operation, level of performance, cost reduction, improved quality, and operating efficiency.• Fisher-Pry Analysis is a mathematical technique used to project the rate of market adoption of technically superior new technologies and, when appropriate, to project the loss of market share by old technologies. The technique is based on the fact that the adoption of such new technologies normally follows a pattern known by mathematicians as the "Logistic Curve." This adoption pattern is defined by two parameters. One of these parameters determines the time at which adoption begins, and the other determines the rate at which adoption will occur. These parameters can be determined from early adoption data, and the resulting pattern can be used to project the time at which market takeover will reach any given level. Results produced by this technique are highly quantitative. The technique is used to make forecasts such as how the installed base of telecommunications equipment will change over time, how rapidly a new chemical production process will be adopted, and the rate at which digital measuring devices will replace analog devices in petroleum refineries, etc.
  59. 59. Extrapolators• Extrapolation - the future will represent a logical extension of the past• Gompertz Analysis is very similar in concept to Fisher-Pry Analysis, except that it better models adoptions that are driven by the technical superiority of the new technology. However, customers do not suffer any significant penalty for not adopting the new technology at any given time. Like Fisher-Pry analysis, Gompertz analysis projects adoption by use of a two parameter mathematical model. In similar manner, early adoption is used to determine these parameters and the resulting adoption curve. Results are highly quantitative, and the technique is often used to project adoption of consumer products such as high-definition television, camcorders, new automobile features, etc.• Growth Limit Analysis utilizes a mathematical formulation known as the Pearl Curve to project the pattern in which maturing technologies will approach development limits. This can often be useful to organizations in analyzing maturing technologies, in setting feasible research goals, and in determining the utility of additional development spending. The technique can also be useful in determining if new technical approaches can be used to overcome apparent technical limits.• Learning Curve techniques are based on the fact that, as more and more items of a given type are produced, the price of production tends to decrease at a predictable rate. For example, each doubling of the total number of a particular items produced might result in a cost reduction of 15%. In some cases, key technical parameters may improve in a similar pattern. The learning curve phenomenon is reflected as a straight line on log-log graph paper which makes projection relatively simple. Results from the use of this are highly quantitative. The technique can be used for setting price and technical performance targets for developing technologies, particularly in the middle stages of their development.
  60. 60. Pattern Analysts EA-envision• Pattern Analysis – the future will reflect a replication of past events• Pattern Analysts believe that the future will reflect a replication of past events. Powerful feedback mechanisms in our society, together with basic human drives, will cause future trends and events to occur in identifiable cycles and predictable patterns. Thus, one can best address the future by identifying and analyzing analogous situations from the past and relating them to probable futures. L’arbour du vie EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  61. 61. How Can We Think Ahead? Pattern Analysis Techniques Analogy Analysis – is based on the observation that the patterns of technical development and market capture for new technologies are often similar to those for like technologies in the past Precursor Trend Analysis – takes advantage of the fact that, often, the development of one technology lags by a constant period the development of another related one. Morphological Matrices – provide a formal method for uncovering new product and process possibilities – functionality, desirability, attractiveness and superiority of the new technology Feedback Models – provide a means for accounting for the interactions that will connect technical, economic, market, societal, and economic factors as the future unfolds.EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  62. 62. Pattern Analysts• Pattern Analysis – the future will reflect a replication of past events• Pattern Analysts believe that the future will reflect a replication of past events. Powerful feedback mechanisms in our society, together with basic human drives, will cause future trends and events to occur in identifiable cycles and predictable patterns. Thus, one can best address the future by identifying and analyzing analogous situations from the past and relating them to probable futures.• Analogy Analysis is based on the observation that the patterns of technical development and market capture for new technologies are often similar to those for like technologies in the past. In applying this technique, forecasters identify appropriate analogies and analyze similarities and differences. Normally, it is desirable to identify more than one applicable example in order to minimize the probability of selecting false or inappropriate analogies. The results from application of this technique are typically semi-quantitative in nature, and are often presented as a range of possibilities rather than a single projection.• Precursor Trend Analysis takes advantage of the fact that, often, the development of one technology lags by a constant period the development of another related one. For example, the first application of technical advances in passenger cars typically occurs approximately four years after their application in race cars. Similarly, the application of new technologies in commercial products tend to follow laboratory demonstration by a relatively constant period. One can, thus, project the status of the lag technology at some future date by observing the status of the lead technology today. This technique also allows the extension of lag technology forecasts by building on forecasts of lead technologies. Results from using this technique are highly quantitative.
  63. 63. Pattern Analysts• Pattern Analysis – the future will reflect a replication of past events• Pattern Analysts believe that the future will reflect a replication of past events. Powerful feedback mechanisms in our society, together with basic human drives, will cause future trends and events to occur in identifiable cycles and predictable patterns. Thus, one can best address the future by identifying and analyzing analogous situations from the past and relating them to probable futures.• Morphological Matrices provide a formal method for uncovering new product and process possibilities. In applying this technique, users first determine the essential functions of the product or process. Next, they list the different means by which each of these functions could be satisfied. Finally, they use the matrix to identify new, reasonable combinations of these means that could result in practical new products or processes. Results of the application of this technique are qualitative in nature. The technique can be used to identify non-obvious new opportunities for a company. This technique can also be used to identify products and processes that competitors might be developing or considering.• Feedback Models provide a means for accounting for the interactions that will connect technical, economic, market, societal, and economic factors as the future unfolds. In using this technique computer models are developed that mathematically specify the relationships between each of the relevant factors. For example, advances in technology may result in improved products that may result in increased sales that may provide more funds for further advance in technology. The results of this technique are highly quantitative, but are often used to examine qualitative consequences of trends, events, or decisions. The technique is most commonly used in the formulation of high level strategies or policy.
  64. 64. EA-envisionEvolutionists Evolutionists - the future will evolve from a sequence of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. Evolution – The future world state will result from a series of events and actions that, as they emerge, unfold and develop, are essentially adaptive responses to competitive pressure - massive global change and population growth combined with deteriorating climate, environment and ecology and depletion of resources. Adaptive – The future will emerge from a sequence of random, unpredictable actions and events under conditions of severe competition for scarce resources - so that future outcomes tend to favour those who are the fittest and the most brave, the best prepared, the most competitive - the most flexible and adaptable. Evolutionists (e.g. Global Business Network, Institute for the Future) believe that the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. Therefore, one can best deal with the future by identifying a wide range of possible trends and events, by carefully monitoring developments in technical, social and political environments, and by maintaining a high degree of flexibility in planning process. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  65. 65. How Can We Think Ahead?Evolutionist Techniques Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking - techniques are founded on theobservation that, for most new technologies, a finite, often considerable, amount oftime is required to bridge the gap between conception and commercialization. Scanning seeks to identify any trend or event that might impact upon the organization and is, therefore, by design, essentially diffuse and unfocussed. Monitoring is designed to follow identified trends in specific, prioritised areas and is, thus, more focused than scanning. Tracking is designed to carefully follow developments in a limited area and is, consequently, highly focused and targeted. . Alternate Scenarios – this technique provides a structured method for linking andintegrating a number of individual forecasts into a series of comprehensive, feasiblenarratives about how the future might develop and unfold. Monte Carlo Simulation Models - are mathematical models that take explicitaccount of the fact that projections of future trends and events are, fundamentally,probabilistic in nature. Using this technique, all of the dependant steps involved inthe forecasting of a time-sequent commodity demand, supply and traded value curve,or the stages in the development, launch and market take-up of a new technology,are identified and their inter-relationships specified in an iterative computer model.
  66. 66. Evolutionists• Evolutionists - the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random.• Evolutionists (e.g. Global Business Network, Institute for the Future) believe that the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. Therefore, one can best deal with the future by identifying a wide range of possible trends and events, by carefully monitoring developments in technology, socio-economic and political environments - and maintaining a high degree of flexibility in the planning process.• Scanning, Monitoring, and Tracking techniques are founded on the observation that, for most new technologies, a finite, often considerable, amount of time is required to bridge the gap between conception and commercialization. Thus, if one is alert, he or she can discern changes in technology, market, and other business factors in time to take maximum advantage of these changes. All three techniques are employed to identify and evaluate developments that might materially impact the organizations operations and strategies. Although the three techniques are similar in many respects, they differ in purpose, methodology, and degree of focus. – Scanning seeks to identify any trend or event that might impact the organization and is, therefore, by design, essentially unfocussed. – Monitoring is designed to follow general trends in specified areas and is, thus, more focused than scanning. – Tracking is designed to carefully follow developments in a limited area and is, consequently, highly focused – Racking and Stacking is designed to carefully analyse developments and group together those developments with similar characteristics, profiles or outcomes. – Results from each of these techniques can vary between highly quantitative to basically qualitative. However, in general terms, results are less quantitative in scanning activities and more quantitative in tracking activities. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  67. 67. Evolutionists• Evolutionists - the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random.• Evolutionists (e.g. Global Business Network, Institute for the Future) believe that the future will result from a series of events and actions that are essentially unpredictable and, to a large extent, random. Therefore, one can best deal with the future by identifying a wide range of possible trends and events, by carefully monitoring developments in the technical and social environments, and by maintaining a high degree of flexibility in the planning process.• The Alternate Scenarios technique provides a structured method for integrating a number of individual forecasts into a series of comprehensive, feasible narratives about how the future might develop. It provides a vehicle for combining many forecasts in a format that allows decision- makers to effectively relate the implications of the combination of all forecasts. The results from this technique can range from highly quantitative to purely qualitative depending on the objectives of the effort, its organization, and purposes to which it will be put. This technique is typically used to assist executives in critical decision-making. Although a single scenario can be used for making decisions, the use of a series of alternate scenarios allows executives to take account of the fact that the future can never be projected with certainty, and to determine how appropriate flexibility can be built into plans.• Monte Carlo Models are computer models that take explicit account of the fact that all projections of future trends and events are, fundamentally, probabilistic in nature. In this technique, all of the steps involved in the development of a new technology are identified, and their inter-relationships specified in a mathematical model. Numerical values are assigned to the probability of each event occurring in various different ways and to the length of time it will take each event to occur. The model is then run a large number of times to determine the probability of various overall outcomes. The results of the technique are highly quantitative, and the technique can be used to project technology development times and patterns, to allocate resources, and to track the development of emerging technologies. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework
  68. 68. How Can We Think Ahead?Strategic Foresight Techniques Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined viaStrategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the futurebecomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options -and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled. Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform toour preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futuresoffering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred anddesired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by discounting isolatedoutliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future descriptions which best support ourdesired future outcomes, goals and objectives. Weak Signals – a subliminal pattern, idea or trend which acts as an indicator that maypredicate, influence, impact or affect the environment, how we do business, what business wedo, and the environment in which we will work, at some time in the future. Wild Cards – any sudden, major or unforeseen change in either the military, political,social, economic or environmental perspective which threatens either a catastrophic reversalor “Black Swan” event, loss of an important asset or facility – or the presentation of a new,unexpected or significant advantage, gain or opportunity.
  69. 69. Strategic Foresight• Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled.• Strategic Foresight may be executed at many different levels, including: - – Planned and Managed Futures –”Take hold of your future - or the future will take hold of you…..” (Patrick Dixon - Futurewise. 2005) – Pragmatic Foresight - "Carrying out tomorrows business better" (from Hamel & Prahalad, 2004); – Progressive Foresight - "Going beyond conventional thinking and practices and reformulating processes, products, and services using quite different and novel assumptions"; – Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287). – Transhumanist Foresight - "Seeks to understand the social aspects of the next civilisation - which transcends the current human condition, breaking out from the prevailing hegemony of geo- political interests and globalization" (after Slaughter, 2004 and Natasha Vita-Moore).• Positivist – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled.• Futurist – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – those offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred future. Selecting those futures for analysis which best support our desired outcomes, goals, objectives.
  70. 70. Strategic Foresight Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. The future may comply with preferred options - and thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes may be fulfilled – Firstly, assessing the probability of any given image of the future actually occurring must of necessity be an ongoing process as patterns and trends, weak signals and wild cards and emerging issues of change grow, transform, plateau, and collapse over time. The probability of any given possible outcome, or parallel future, may vary over the future timeline. Hence the need for continuous and ongoing identification and monitoring of indicators of change. – Secondly, evaluating any given image of the future as aligning more or less closely with the enterprise mission and vision statement is important in assessing those futures which offer conditions that best fit strategic goals and objectives in achieving a desired outcome – a preferred future (Futurism) – however, that evaluation of a possible set of future conditions as preferable is clearly NOT THE SAME ACTIVITY as articulating a single preferred vision of the future (Positivism).• Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled.• Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives.
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