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StockTakers ABCs to Zs of TaxCharityTM-22mar2014

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StockTakers “likeables” proprietary information helps small investors. Because we can we do. “Likeables” portfolios perform.

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StockTakers ABCs to Zs of TaxCharityTM-22mar2014

  1. 1. “ Page 1 of 8 March 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 March 2014 Risk PriceTM analysis of balance sheets allows us to discern a most useful partition from all the equities in any market. These are “likeablesTM ” because they seem “undervalued1 ” in the market mind-sense. The demand for them exceeds the supply at current prices. Investors prefer them and price them up. So there is much to like. As a group 2 of 3 “likeablesTM ” equities we identify by Risk PriceTM tend to gain in stock price for long periods. We understand why by proven theory2 . We give proof also in open display in real time markets because we can. No one else can, so they do not. Because we can, we do. As open handed display of our methods in January 2012 we released the ABC’s portfolio comprised of just the of newly identified equities on TSX and NYSE “likeablesTM ” market partition. Our “likeables” are revealed by their rise above Risk Price TM our metric investors must know to defend their capital. Those ABCs portfolios made the case even as the two markets diverged. There were 16 ABCs equities in the TSX sample for an aggregate $41.972 invested and 12 ABCs in the NYSE sample portfolio for an aggregate $77,436 invested at outset. Through 2012 in both ABC’s, 5 were dropped due to negative change in their Risk Price metrics, finishing 2012 with the TSX sample up 22.64% and the NYSE sample up 38.97%. These substantively different markets moved in different directions. The TSX declined early in 2012 and then regained ending up 6.02% and the NYSE had started hot and then cooled to obtain a 8.35% gain in the year. Roughly a four-fold gain was made in both ABC portfolios over those markets. The hedge funds HFRI3 recorded only 6.16% on the NYSE prior to their taking fees as supposed earned despite their underperformance in 2012, as in all years. They are just playing dice, with your money. Our ABCs sample portfolios we have continued through 2013 as open display. TSX first declined in 2013 then gained since the end of July. The TSX- ABCs 2 year gain now totals 65.02% through 2013 adding 10.68%. The NYSE - ABCs portfolio 2 year gain totals 51.77% in 2013 adding 31.51%. Idle cash value is eroded by inflation. Our ‘likeables’ tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like Capital Safety and Liquidity as has consistently shown and proven works for high capital appreciation, less risk more gain. Sounds strange truth to power4 there is no science in conventional fund portfolio methods. Their artifice takes fees for their playing dice, with your money. The TaxCharityTM portfolios we posted January 2013 took-up the challenge for the small investor to invest new cash savings under the limits of annual Tax shelter provisions. Our followers have done well. Our BookBuilderTM builds your wealth for childrens’ education, or income on your small savings. August 2013 we issued new 2013 TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios to make use of new tax sheltered savings. As we seek accredited investors to extend our achievement with our new theory of the firm we charitably offer some of our “Perpetual Bond” list of “likeables” proprietary information to help small investors. Because we can we do. “Likeables” portfolios perform. "there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844 "for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803
  2. 2. “ Page 2 of 8 March 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 March 2014 There was unreasonable volatility in late January and early February tripping many stop-loss settings intended to protect your capital and then rebounded. Market mavens often are irrational, for no reason. Conventional investment industry claims “expertise” but have just poor untestable models, conjectures claimed as theory. They just cull small investors’ wallets to their unproven use. All the fun, fees and profit is theirs, but next to nothing for you5 are ever left, just their tease, for fees, and no thanks. Their baseless swing from no-ooo to buy-eee wrecked havouc on the new A-Z portfolios StopLoss intended to protect your capital did their job but all rebounded to new high, gaining 3% in days. The behaviour of market investors to “likeables” is they like them. Their desire is demand exceeding the supply driving the prices up. We robustly rebuild from baseless volatility setbacks like these. Rebuilt from stoploss exits the AB-Z onTSX has regained to 2.67%. The rebuilt AB-Z on NYSE regained to 2.67% also. The original portfolio without stop-loss has gained 5.51% on TSX; and, 3.92% on NYSE. Passive stop-loss keeps things reasonably safe and simple enough to be useful for small investors. We have more active and complex methods for limiting exit due to unreasonable market mavens gambolling goats6 grazing on their client wallets. There is no science in conventional fund portfolio methods. Their artifice takes fees for their playing dice, with your money. Avoid those Artful Dodgers. ABCs for TSX Firms portfolio from 31 December 2011 Market Price Symbol SF (Risk Price) Stop/Loss ARC Resources 30.10 ARX.TO $28 $28 Anvil Mining (Sold on Takeover 21Feb12) AVM.TO Brookfield Asset Management 44.15 BAM-A.TO $34 $42 Bombardier (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) BBD-B.TO $4 $3 BCE Inc (Sold on N* decline 12jun13) BCE.TO $36 $45 Cogeco Cable 54.80 CCA.TO $39 $50 CCL Industries 93.01 CCL-A.TO $37 $78 Canfor Corp 26.50 CFP.TO $12 $9 Centerra Gold (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) CG.TO $19 $4 Cenovus Energy (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) CVE.TO $35 $27 Canadian Western Bank (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) CWB.TO $33 $33 Dollarama Inc 86.59 DOL.TO $55 $75 Emera Inc (Sold on N* decline 22oct12) EMA.TO $31 $31 Enbridge Inc (Sold on $topLoss 04dec13) ENB.TO $49 $46 Fortis Inc (Sold on N* decline 30un13) FTS.TO $38 $29 Finning International (Sold on N* decline 30jun13) FTT.TO $27 $27 Buy-ins 01Jan13 Gildan Activewear Inc. 55.85 GIL $40 $50 Linamar Corporation 50.40 LNR $19 $39 Sun Life Financial Inc. 38.86 SLF $28 $36 Buy-ins 15Jun2013 CGI Group 34.36 GIB.A $33 $33
  3. 3. “ Page 3 of 8 March 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 March 2014 Buy-ins 31Jul2013 Calfrac Well Services Ltd. 36.19 CFW $30 $30 MTY Food Group Inc 30.95 MTY $25 $29 Buy-ins 22Oct2013 Hudsons Bay Company. HBC $19 $15 Celestica Inc. 11.26 CLS $9 $9 Buy-ins *100 shares 22Dec2013 Laurentian Bank of Canada 46.59 LB $46 $44 Buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14 Secure Energy Services Incorporated 18.65 SES $15 $15 ABCs -TSX 2011 Portfolio Value 22 March 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 69260.00 / 41972.00 Gain 26.75 months 65.02% Net Cash (on buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14) 223.00 ABCs -TSX 2011 Portfolio Value 22 March 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 69260.00 / 41972.00 Gain 26.75 months 65.02% (Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings) Altius Minerals Corporation 13.70 ALS $9 $13 ATS Automation Tooling Systems Incorporated 14.29 ATA $10 $13 CAE Inc. 14.74 CAE:TO $9 $14 Cameco Corporation 26.81 CCO $22 $21 Dorel Industries Inc. 38.75 DII.B $32 $33 Leon's Furniture Limited 15.77 LNF.TO $12 $14 Resolute Forest Products Inc 21.49 RFP $13 $20 Veresen Inc. 15.97 VSN $13 $15 AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio * after 100 Shares Buy-ins 22 December 2013 44403.00 44403.00 Buy-ins * per 100 Shares 22 December 2013 Acadian Timber Corporation 13.60 ADN $10 $13 Ainsworth Lumber Co Ltd (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14) ANS $3 $4 Aecon Group Inc. 16.87 ARE $13 $14 ARC Resources Ltd. (Sold on $topLoss 29jan14) ARX $28 $28 Bell Aliant Inc. (Sold on $topLoss 31jan14) BA $25 $25 Bombardier Inc. (Sold on $topLoss 21jan14) BBD.B $4 $3 Progressive Waste Solutions (Sold on $topLoss 29jan14) BIN $24 $26 Bank of Nova Scotia (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14) BNS $62 $61 Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14) CFW $30 $30 Canadian Imperial Bank (Sold on $topLoss 27jan14) CM $73 $86 Crescent Point Energy Corp. (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14) CPG $40 $37 Canadian Utilities Limited 39.60 CU $35 $38
  4. 4. “ Page 4 of 8 March 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 March 2014 Vermilion Energy Inc. 67.17 VET $53 $59 Buy-ins * per 100 Shares 22 February 2014 Agrium Inc. 105.14 AGU $98 $92 AltaGas Ltd. 44.98 ALA $40 $40 Black Diamond Group Limited 34.60 BDI $24 $27 Bonterra Energy Corp. 52.84 BNE $54 $52 Canadian Energy Services & Tech. Corp. 29.00 CEU $20 $22 Canadian Natural Resources Limited 41.81 CNQ $34 $38 AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio 22 March 2014 / 22 December 2013 45587.00 / 44403.00 Gain 3.0 months 2.67% Cash Forward * after 100 Shares 22feb14 Buy-ins 891.00 AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio 22 March 2014 / 22 December 2013 45587.00 / 44403.00 Gain 3.0 months 2.67% Footnote: Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such irrational market mavens’ pressures of late January and early February. Irrationally volatile swing occurred as the prices sharply rebounded without regard for reason. New highs were recorded in the next week showing a 3% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must now rebuild the portfolio with replacement buy-ins as shown above. If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, perhaps, with the exception of BBD-B and CPG, which had lingered below Risk Price. However, those two have since also rebounded above their Risk Price. The behaviour of market investors to “likeables” is they like them. Their desire is demand exceeding the supply driving the prices up. AB-Z without Stop Loss all have rebounded (thankfully, this time): AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio 22 March 2014 / 22 December 2013 46851.00 / 44403.00 Gain 3.0 months 5.51% Engage in “likeables” to save your own bacon. Do not expect perfect of Risk Price. Tendency for gain is not the same as pin-the-point on the mule as most seek. Motley brayers talk only of the survivor bias winner. Let others chase gamblers’ risk/reward model that rarely works, as their house wins, on fees you donated. Risk Price works. Proven behaviour of market investors to “likeables” is they like them, that is why 2 of 3 tend to long term gain in stock price once they trade above the Risk Price. It is essential least eight or more ‘likeables’ portfolio at any time to benefit that tendency. (Holding 100 share blocks for 'collaring options’ enhances gain. StopLoss weeds laggards to more simply defend small investor capital.) We share our Risk Price driven proprietary information to small investors. Pay-forward our charity by designating our normal ‘2 & 20’ fee portion to social charity. Good works deserve7 our help.
  5. 5. “ Page 5 of 8 March 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 March 2014 ABCs for NYSE Firms 22 March 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 Market Price Symbol SF (Risk Price) Stop/Loss Alexander & Baldwin (Sold on N* negative 31jul12) ALEX $38 $35 Alaska Air Group 90.76 ALK*48 $75 $72 American Express Co 91.52 AXP*48 $58 $81 Brookfield Asset Management 39.35 BAM*26 $30 $38 Caterpillar (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) CAT $90 $92 Colgate-Palmolive (split 2 for 1) ($topLoss 14jan14) CL*80 $51 $59 Cummins (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) CMI $102 $132 ConocoPhilips (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) COP $62 $64 CSX Corp 28.76 CSX*20 $27 $25 Chevron (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) CVX $119 $110 Walt Disney Co 80.35 DIS*37 $75 $72 GATX Corporation ($topLoss sold 10Jul13) GMT*33 $56 $57 General Electric Co. ($topLoss 14jan14) GE*17 $26 $23 Buy-ins 01Jan13 Gamestop Corp CL A ($topLoss Sold 14jan14) GME:US $29 $27 Hasbro Inc 55.20 HAS $41 $50 HSBC Holdings PLC ADS 9.89 HBC:US $6 $8 Host Hotels & Resorts Inc 49.84 HST:US $46 $52 Huntington Bancshares Inc 20.28 HBAN:US $14 $18 Intercontinental Exchange Inc 203.85 ICE:US $131 $202 Interpublic Group of Cos 17.01 IPG:US $11 $16 KLA-Tencor Corporation ($topLoss sold 27aug13) KLAC:US $45 $60 MBIA Inc (Sold on $topLoss 13dec12) MBI:US $8 $11 Principal Financial Group Inc 46.42 PFG:US $27 $39 Tyson Foods Inc CL A 42.37 TSN:US $21 $35 Buy-ins 31Jul2013 OfficeMax Incorporated (Takenover by ODP 01nov13) OMX:US Pandora Media Incorporated 34.01 P:US $24 $31 Donnelley RR & Sons Company 18.71 RRD:US $15 $15 UBS AG ($topLoss sold 05nov13) UBS:US $15 $19 Buy-ins 31Aug2013 Best Buy Co. Inc (Sold on $topLoss 14jan14) BBY:US $33 $18 Hartford Financial Services 35.42 HIG:US $22 $31 Jabil Circuit Inc 17.72 JBL:US $22 $16 Buy-ins 22Nov2013 Hillshire Brands Company 37.70 HSH:US $30 $35 Buy-ins *100 shares 22Dec2013 Xerox Corp 11.20 XRX:US $9 $10 Buy-ins *100 shares 22jan14 Ciena Corp 24.15 CIEN:US $19 $23
  6. 6. “ Page 6 of 8 March 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 March 2014 DENTSPLY International Inc 45.73 XRAY $46 $43 Buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14 Apache Corp 80.71 APA:US $84 $78 Baker Hughes Inc 62.11 BHI:US $48 $56 ABCs for NYSE 2011 Portfolio Value 22 March 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 117527.00 / 77436.00 Gain 26.75 months 51.77% Net Cash Forward (on buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14) 431.00 ABCs for NYSE 2011 Portfolio Value 22 March 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 117527.00 / 77436.00 Gain 26.75 months 51.77% (Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings) Accenture PLC CL A 82.83 ACN:US $61 $80 Barnes Group Incorporated 39.43 B:US $24 $36 Bayer AG ADR 135.02 BAYRY:US $103 $126 Brown-Forman CL B 89.74 BF.B:US $77 $76 Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Incorporated 98.04 CBRL:US $67 $89 Charter Communications Incorporated 127.25 CHTR:US $96 $118 Zynga Incorporated 4.95 ZNGA:US $4 $3 AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio 22 December 2013 131242.00 Agilent Technologies Inc 56.09 A:US $45 $55 AGCO Corp. ($topLoss 04feb14) AGCO:US $48 $51 AMC Networks Incorporated ($topLoss 03feb14) AMCX:US $60 $64 Amgen Inc. 122.93 AMGN:US $52 $109 Airgas Incorporated ($topLoss 03feb14) ARG:US $83 $106 Beam Incorporated 83.18 BEAM:US $68 $78 Baidu Inc. ADS 158.31 BIDU:US $154 $147 Biogen Idec Inc 318.53 BIIB:US $158 $254 Crown Castle International Corp. ($topLoss 03feb14) CCI:US $63 $70 Cerner Corp. 58.29 CERN:US $46 $45 CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. ($topLoss 03feb14) CHRW $51 $56 Capital One Financial Corp. ($topLoss 03feb14) COF:US $62 $69 Cognizant Technology Solutions .(10mar13 2:1 split) 97.52 CTSH:US $91 $90 Zions Bancorporation 31.24 ZION:US $22 $28 Buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14 Accenture PLC CL A 82.83 ACN:US $61 $80 AK Steel Holding Corp 6.97 AKS:US $7 $6 Bayer AG ADR 135.02 BAYRY:US $103 $126 Brown-Forman CL B 89.74 BF.B:US $77 $76 Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Incorporated 98.04 CBRL:US $67 $89
  7. 7. “ Page 7 of 8 March 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 March 2014 Zynga Incorporated 4.95 ZNGA:US $4 $3 AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio 22 March 2014 (including dividends) / 22 December 2013 134752.00 / 131242.00 Gain 3.0 months 2.67% Net Cash Forward (on buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14) 287.00 AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio 22 March 2014 (including dividends) / 22 December 2013 134752.00 / 131242.00 Gain 3.0 months 2.67% Footnote: Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such irrational market mavens’ pressures of late January and early February. Irrationally volatile swing occurred as the prices sharply rebounded without regard for reason. New highs were recorded in the next week showing a 7% swing-back up in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must now rebuild the portfolio with replacement buy-ins as shown above. If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can carry-on, as this time all rebounded and are trading above their Risk Price. The behaviour of market investors to “likeables” is they like them. Their desire is demand exceeding the supply driving the prices up. AB-Z without Stop Loss Rebounded (thankfully, this time): AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio 22 March 2014 / 22 December 2013 136384.00 / 131242.00 Gain 3.0 months 3.92% Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon. The conventional investment industry cannot prove any assumptions underlying their methods, whose results are 1.03:1, like a coin toss. Avoid those Artful Dodgers playing dice with your wallet. Investors need a real compass8 Risk Price to find their way. Our TaxCharityTM gives proof. In the spirit and tradition of real science of Bacon and Newton we feign nothing; our demonstrations are in real time with real consequences obtaining real benefit to investors’ wallets. In our Modal Geometry theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows: 1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared to be responsible for); and, 2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its trading connections). The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded more by rigourous observation in the real world of corporate ledgers relation to balance sheets. That is aided with logic, epistemology, and some powerful mathematics, not conventional assumptions with little relevance but, real science.
  8. 8. “ Page 8 of 8 March 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 March 2014 Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables” are equities shown valued by investors, tending to continuing gain, which investors have demonstrated a determination to buy and hold at stock prices above the price of risk. That tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 “likeables” gaining for the long term, as we continue to show. Proof is positive, in our TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios extending our proprietary information to small investors. The ABCs and new AB-Zs suit larger wallets. Because we can, while the entire financial industry is so busy blowing bubbles9 with cash from your wallet. Know What You Have. Have What You Know. Our risk averse view works. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help. Hans Goetze, Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited hg.stocktaker@gmail.com Head Office 76 Midridge Close SE Calgary, AB T2X 1G1 351 Chemin Boulanger Sutton, PQ J0E 2K0 450 538-1270 1 http://riskwerk.com/2014/02/05/pi-demand-and-supply/ 2 E. Goetze, The Modal Geometry of the Firm and Worth of the Trading Connections, 2009 3 https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi 4 http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/ 5 http://riskwerk.com/2013/09/15/earnings-dont-matter-2/ 6 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 7 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-corporate-social-on-our-best 8 http://riskwerk.com/2012/08/26/the-price-of-risk/ 9 http://riskwerk.com/2013/10/14/asset-bubbles-day-october-14-2013/

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