StockTakers ABCs to Zs of TaxCharityTM-22may2014
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StockTakers ABCs to Zs of TaxCharityTM-22may2014

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StockTakers charity proves Risk Price method trumps myth

StockTakers charity proves Risk Price method trumps myth

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StockTakers ABCs to Zs of TaxCharityTM-22may2014 StockTakers ABCs to Zs of TaxCharityTM-22may2014 Document Transcript

  • “ Page 1 of 8 May 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 May 2014 Risk PriceTM analysis of balance sheets allows us to discern a most useful partition from all the equities in any market. These are “likeablesTM ” because they seem “undervalued1 ” in the market mind-sense. The demand for them exceeds the supply at current prices. Investors prefer them and price them up. So there is much to like. As a group 2 of 3 “likeablesTM ” equities we identify by Risk PriceTM tend to gain in stock price for long periods. We understand why by proven theory2 . We give proof also in open display in real time markets because we can. No one else can, so they do not. Because we can, we do. As open handed display of our methods in January 2012 we released the ABC’s portfolio comprised of just the of newly identified equities on TSX and NYSE “likeablesTM ” market partition. Our “likeables” are revealed by their rise above Risk Price TM our metric investors must know to defend their capital. Those ABCs portfolios made the case even as the two markets diverged. There were 16 ABCs equities in the TSX sample for an aggregate $41.972 invested and 12 ABCs in the NYSE sample portfolio for an aggregate $77,436 invested at outset. Through 2012 in both ABC’s, 5 were dropped due to negative change in their Risk Price metrics, finishing 2012 with the TSX sample up 22.64% and the NYSE sample up 38.97%. These substantively different markets moved in different directions. The TSX declined early in 2012 and then regained ending up 6.02% and the NYSE had started hot and then cooled to obtain a 8.35% gain in the year. Roughly a four-fold gain was made in both ABC portfolios over those markets. The hedge funds HFRI3 recorded only 6.16% on the NYSE prior to their taking fees as supposed earned despite their underperformance in 2012, as in all years. They are just playing dice, with your money. Our ABCs sample portfolios we have continued in open display. The TSX- ABCs 2.4 year gain now totals 76.17% gaining 12.4% in 2014. The NYSE - ABCs portfolio 2.4 year gain totals 52.94% in 2013 adding 31.51% now waiting for NYSE recovery to its end of 2013. While the average hedge fund gained 2.40%4 letting inflation erode your money. Our ‘likeables’ tending to hold their value and gain are better than cash. Capital Safety and Liquidity has consistently shown and proven works for high capital appreciation. Less risk more gain sounds strange but truth to power5 there is no science in conventional fund portfolio methods. Their artifice takes fees for their playing dice, with your money. There was unreasonable volatility in late January and early February tripping many stop-loss settings intended to protect your capital and then rebounded. Market mavens often are irrational, for no reason. We seek accredited investors to extend our achievement with our new theory of the firm. We offer some of our “Perpetual Bond” proprietary list of “likeables” to help small investors. “Likeables” portfolios performance is proven. Because we can, we do. With proven ‘likeables’ small investors can. The TaxCharityTM portfolios we posted January 2013 took-up the challenge for the small investor to invest new cash savings under the limits of annual Tax shelter provisions. Our followers have done well. Our BookBuilderTM builds your wealth for childrens’ education or your income on small savings. "there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844 "for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803
  • “ Page 2 of 8 May 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 May 2014 Conventional investment industry claims “expertise” but use untestable models, conjectures claimed as theory. These Artful Dodgers just cull small investors’ wallets to their use. All the fun, fees and profit is theirs, but next to nothing for you6 are ever left, just their tease, for fees, and no thanks. Their baseless swing from no-ooo to buy-eee wrecked havouc on the new A-Z portfolios set end of December. StopLoss intended to protect your capital did their job though all then rebounded in days. The behaviour of market investors to “likeables” is they like them. Their desire is demand exceeding the supply driving the prices up. We must rebuild from baseless volatility setbacks like these. Rebuilt from stoploss exits the AB-Z on TSX has regained to 5.61%. The rebuilt AB-Z on NYSE holds-on to a meagre 0.50%. Passive stop-loss keeps things reasonably safe and simple enough to be useful for small investors. We have more active and complex methods for limiting exit due to unreasonable market mavens gambolling goats7 grazing on their client wallets. There is no science in conventional fund portfolio methods. Their artifice takes fees for their playing dice, with your money. Avoid those Artful Dodgers. ABCs for TSX Firms portfolio from 31 December 2011 Market Price Symbol SF (Risk Price) Stop/Loss ARC Resources 31.81 ARX.TO $28 $31 Anvil Mining (Sold on Takeover 21Feb12) AVM.TO Brookfield Asset Management 48.19 BAM-A.TO $35 $43 Bombardier (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) BBD-B.TO $4 $4 BCE Inc (Sold on N* decline 12jun13) BCE.TO $37 $47 Cogeco Cable 62.2 CCA.TO $51 $56 CCL Industries 105.76 CCL-A.TO $78 $87 Canfor Corp 24.52 CFP.TO $26 $21 Centerra Gold (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) CG.TO $19 $4 Cenovus Energy (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) CVE.TO $35 $31 Canadian Western Bank (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) CWB.TO $33 $35 Dollarama Inc 91.03 DOL.TO $78 $82 Emera Inc (Sold on N* decline 22oct12) EMA.TO $31 $33 Enbridge Inc (Sold on $topLoss 04dec13) ENB.TO $49 $49 Fortis Inc (Sold on N* decline 30un13) FTS.TO $38 $31 Finning International (Sold on N* decline 30jun13) FTT.TO $27 $27 Buy-ins 01Jan13 Gildan Activewear Inc. 58.1 GIL $40 $50 Linamar Corporation 61.64 LNR $38 $45 Sun Life Financial Inc. 37.21 SLF $28 $33 Buy-ins 15Jun2013 CGI Group 36.78 GIB.A $33 $33 Buy-ins 31Jul2013 Calfrac Well Services Ltd. 37.13 CFW $31 $33 MTY Food Group Inc 29.69 MTY $25 $28
  • “ Page 3 of 8 May 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 May 2014 Buy-ins 22Oct2013 Hudsons Bay Company. HBC $18 $16 Celestica Inc. 12.5 CLS $12 $11 Buy-ins *100 shares 22Dec2013 Laurentian Bank of Canada 47.52 LB $46 $46 Buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14 Secure Energy Services Incorporated 19.46 SES $15 $18 ABCs -TSX 2011 Portfolio Value 22 May 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 73942.00 / 41972.00 Gain 28.75 months 76.17% Net Cash (on buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14) 223.00 ABCs -TSX 2011 Portfolio Value 22 May 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 73942.00 / 41972.00 Gain 28.75 months 76.17% (Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings) Altius Minerals Corporation 13.35 ALS $9 $14 ATS Automation Tooling Systems Incorporated 14.82 ATA $10 $13 CAE Inc. 14.97 CAE:TO $13 $14 Canadian Apartment Properties REIT 22.7 CAR.UN $21 $21 Cameco Corporation 24 CCO $22 $22 Capital Power Corporation 25.55 CPX $23 $24 Leon's Furniture Limited 15 LNF.TO $14 $15 Resolute Forest Products Inc 19 RFP $15 $16 Veresen Inc. VSN $13 $15 AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio * after 100 Shares Buy-ins 22 December 2013 44403.00 44403.00 Buy-ins * per 100 Shares 22 December 2013 Acadian Timber Corp. ($topLoss Sold 27mar14) 13.00 ADN $13 $13 Ainsworth Lumber Co Ltd (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14) ANS $3 $3 Aecon Group Inc. 16.6 ARE $16 $16 ARC Resources Ltd. (Sold on $topLoss 29jan14) ARX $28 $31 Bell Aliant Inc. (Sold on $topLoss 31jan14) BA $25 $26 Bombardier Inc. (Sold on $topLoss 21jan14) BBD.B $4 $4 Progressive Waste Solutions (Sold on $topLoss 29jan14) BIN $24 $25 Bank of Nova Scotia (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14) BNS $62 $63 Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14) CFW $31 $33 Canadian Imperial Bank (Sold on $topLoss 27jan14) CM $74 $91 Crescent Point Energy Corp. (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14) CPG $41 $42 Canadian Utilities Limited 39.62 CU $35 $39 Vermilion Energy Inc. 72.88 VET $53 $66 Buy-ins * per 100 Shares 22 February 2014
  • “ Page 4 of 8 May 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 May 2014 Agrium Inc. . ($topLoss Sold 22apr14) 99.00 AGU $98 $99 AltaGas Ltd. 48.6 ALA $40 $44 Black Diamond Group Limited 33.94 BDI $24 $31 Bonterra Energy Corp. 56.7 BNE $54 $54 Canadian Energy Services & Tech. Corp. 33.26 CEU $20 $26 Canadian Natural Resources Limited 44.36 CNQ $35 $41 AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio 22 May 2014 (including dividends) / 22 December 2013 46893.00 / 44403.00 Gain 4.75 months 5.61% Cash Forward * after 100 Shares 22feb14 Buy-ins 891.00 Net Cash * after 100 shares stoploss 11200.00 Current Cash 12091.00 Buy-ins *per 100 shares 22may2014 Crescent Point Energy Corp. 44.44 CPG $41 $42 Dorel Industries Inc. 40.17 DII.B $35 $35 Westshore Terminals Investment Corporation 33.68 WTE $26 $32 Cash Forward * after 100 Shares 22may14 Buy-ins 264.00 AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio 22 May 2014 (including dividends) / 22 December 2013 46893.00 / 44403.00 Gain 4.75 months 5.61% Engage in “likeables” to save your own bacon. Do not expect perfect of Risk Price. Tendency for gain is not the same as pin-the-point on the mule as most claim. Motley brayers talk only of the survivor bias winner. Let others chase gamblers’ risk/reward model that rarely works, as their house wins, on fees you donated them. Risk Price works. Proven behaviour of market investors to “likeables” is they like them, that is why 2 of 3 tend to long term gain in stock price once they trade above the Risk Price. It is essential least eight or more ‘likeables’ portfolio at any time to benefit that tendency. (Holding 100 share blocks for 'collaring options’ can enhance gain. StopLoss weeds laggards to more simply defend small investor capital.) We share our Risk Price driven proprietary information to small investors. Pay-forward our charity by designating our normal ‘2 & 20’ fee portion to social charity. Good works deserve8 our help. ABCs for NYSE Firms 22 May 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 Market Price Symbol SF (Risk Price) Stop/Loss Alexander & Baldwin (Sold on N* negative 31jul12) ALEX $34 $36 Alaska Air Group 96.85 ALK*48 $42 $82 American Express Co 88.15 AXP*48 $61 $79 Brookfield Asset Management 44.23 BAM*26 $30 $40
  • “ Page 5 of 8 May 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 May 2014 Caterpillar (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) CAT $88 $97 Colgate-Palmolive (split 2 for 1) ($topLoss 14jan14) CL*80 $51 $64 Cummins (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) CMI $142 $142 ConocoPhilips (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) COP $49 $70 CSX Corp 29.45 CSX*20 $23 $26 Chevron (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) CVX $113 $119 Walt Disney Co 82.35 DIS*37 $51 $74 GATX Corporation ($topLoss sold 10Jul13) GMT*33 $41 $61 General Electric Co. ($topLoss 14jan14) GE*17 $19 $25 Buy-ins 01Jan13 Gamestop Corp CL A ($topLoss Sold 14jan14) GME:US $44 $35 Hasbro Inc 53.7 HAS $51 $51 HSBC Holdings PLC ADS 9.06 HBC:US $9 $8 Host Hotels & Resorts Inc 51.97 HST:US $46 $52 Huntington Bancshares Inc 21.51 HBAN:US $19 $20 Intercontinental Exchange Inc 193.85 ICE:US $208 $188 Interpublic Group of Cos 18.55 IPG:US $17 $17 KLA-Tencor Corporation ($topLoss sold 27aug13) KLAC:US $63 $63 MBIA Inc (Sold on $topLoss 13dec12) MBI:US $8 $10 Principal Financial Group Inc 46.41 PFG:US $45 $41 Tyson Foods Inc CL A 39.13 TSN:US $23 $37 Buy-ins 31Jul2013 OfficeMax Incorporated (Takenover by ODP 01nov13) OMX:US Pandora Media Inc. . ($topLoss Sold 24mar14) 31.00 P:US $33 $31 Donnelley RR & Sons Company 15.37 RRD:US $15 $15 UBS AG ($topLoss sold 05nov13) UBS:US $15 $19 Buy-ins 31Aug2013 Best Buy Co. Inc (Sold on $topLoss 14jan14) BBY:US $32 $19 Hartford Financial Services 35.42 HIG:US $23 $32 Jabil Circuit Inc 17.72 JBL:US $22 $15 Buy-ins 22Nov2013 Hillshire Brands Company 37.70 HSH:US $30 $34 Buy-ins *100 shares 22Dec2013 Xerox Corp 11.20 XRX:US $11 $11 Buy-ins *100 shares 22jan14 Ciena Corp 24.15 CIEN:US $19 $19 DENTSPLY International Inc 45.73 XRAY $46 $42 Buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14 Apache Corp 80.71 APA:US $84 $84 Baker Hughes Inc 62.11 BHI:US $49 $62 ABCs for NYSE 2011 Portfolio Value 117527.00 / 77436.00 Gain 26.75 51.77%
  • “ Page 6 of 8 May 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 May 2014 22 March 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 months Net Cash Forward (on buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14) 431.00 Net Cash * after 100 shares stoploss 3100.00 Current Cash 3531.00 Buy-ins *100 shares 22may14 CBRE Group Incorporated 29.02 CBG:US $26 $26 Cash Forward (* after 100 Shares 22may14 Buy-ins) 629.00 ABCs for NYSE 2011 Portfolio Value 22 March 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 117527.00 / 77436.00 Gain 26.75 months 51.77% (Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings) Charter Communications Incorporated 138.17 CHTR:US $96 $107 Coherent Incorporated 58.04 COHR:US $60 $60 Westmoreland Coal Company 28.4 WLB:US $12 $25 Yelp Incorporated 60.5 YELP:US $77 $46 AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio 22 December 2013 131242.00 Agilent Technologies Inc 55.54 A:US $45 $55 AGCO Corp. ($topLoss 04feb14) AGCO:US $48 $51 AMC Networks Incorporated ($topLoss 03feb14) AMCX:US $60 $64 Amgen Inc. 114.86 AMGN:US $52 $109 Airgas Incorporated ($topLoss 03feb14) ARG:US $83 $106 Beam Inc. (acquired taken private 30apr14) 83.47 BEAM:US $68 $78 Baidu Inc. ADS 163.53 BIDU:US $154 $147 Biogen Idec Inc 299.69 BIIB:US $158 $254 Crown Castle International Corp. ($topLoss 03feb14) CCI:US $63 $70 Cerner Corp. 52.33 CERN:US $46 $45 CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. ($topLoss 03feb14) CHRW $51 $56 Capital One Financial Corp. ($topLoss 03feb14) COF:US $62 $69 Cognizant Technology Solutions .(10mar13 2:1 split) 95.3 CTSH:US $91 $90 Zions Bancorporation 28.43 ZION:US $22 $28 Buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14 Accenture PLC CL A ($80 $topLoss 27mar14) 80.00 ACN:US $61 $80 AK Steel Holding Corp 6.31 AKS:US $7 $6 Bayer AG ADR 140.73 BAYRY:US $111 $120 Brown-Forman CL B 91.88 BF.B:US $83 $83 Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Incorporated 98.24 CBRL:US $72 $86 Zynga Inc. (new $topLoss 22may14) 3.30 ZNGA:US $4 $4 AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio 22 May 2014 (including dividends) / 22 December 2013 131897.00 / 131242.00 Gain 4.75 months 0.50%
  • “ Page 7 of 8 May 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 May 2014 Cash Forward * after 100 Shares 22feb14 Buy-ins 287.00 Net Cash * after 100 shares stoploss 16677.00 Current Cash 16964.00 Buy-ins *100 shares 22may14 Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 31.5 AEGR:US $56 $27 Barnes Group Incorporated 37.14 B:US $24 $36 Carrizo Oil & Gas Incorporated 58.22 CRZO:US $42 $46 Xylem Incorporated 37.95 XYL:US $31 $31 Cash Forward (* after 100 Shares 22may14 Buy-ins) 553.00 AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio 22 May 2014 (including dividends) / 22 December 2013 131897.00 / 131242.00 Gain 4.75 months 0.50% Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon. The conventional investment industry cannot prove any assumptions underlying their methods, whose results are 1.03:1, like a coin toss. Avoid those Artful Dodgers playing dice with your wallet. Investors need a real compass9 Risk Price to find their way. Our TaxCharityTM gives proof. In the spirit and tradition of real science of Bacon and Newton we feign nothing; our demonstrations are in real time with real consequences obtaining real benefit to investors’ wallets. In our Modal Geometry theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows: 1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared to be responsible for); and, 2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its trading connections). The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded more by rigourous observation in the real world of corporate ledgers relation to balance sheets. That is aided with logic, epistemology, and some powerful mathematics, not conventional assumptions with little relevance but, real science. Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables” are equities shown valued by investors, tending to continuing gain, which investors have demonstrated a determination to buy and hold at stock prices above the price of risk. That tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 “likeables” gaining for the long term, as we continue to show. Proof is positive, in our TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios extending our proprietary information to small investors. The ABCs and new AB-Zs suit larger wallets. Because we can, while the entire financial industry is so busy blowing bubbles10 with cash from your wallet.
  • “ Page 8 of 8 May 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM –22 May 2014 Know What You Have. Have What You Know. Our risk averse view works. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help. Hans Goetze, Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited hg.stocktaker@gmail.com Head Office 76 Midridge Close SE Calgary, AB T2X 1G1 351 Chemin Boulanger Sutton, PQ J0E 2K0 450 538-1270 1 http://riskwerk.com/2014/02/05/pi-demand-and-supply/ 2 E. Goetze, The Modal Geometry of the Firm and Worth of the Trading Connections, 2009 3 https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi 4 https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi 5 http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/ 6 http://riskwerk.com/2013/09/15/earnings-dont-matter-2/ 7 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-grail-and-the-goat-portfolios 8 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-corporate-social-on-our-best 9 http://riskwerk.com/2012/08/26/the-price-of-risk/ 10 http://riskwerk.com/2013/10/14/asset-bubbles-day-october-14-2013/