ABCs to Zs of TaxCharityTM-22jan2013

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ABCs to Zs of TaxCharityTM-22jan2013

  1. 1. “ ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 December 2013 "there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844 "for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803 Risk Price analysis of balance sheets allows us to discern a most useful partition from all the equities in any market. These are “likeables” because investors have consistently shown they prefer them and price them up. So there is much to like. As a group 2 of 3 of these “likeables” equities we identify tend to gain in stock price for long periods. We understand why by proven theory1. Proven also in open display, because we can. No one else can, so they do not. Because we can, we do. As open handed display of our methods in January 2012 we released the ABC’s portfolio comprised of just the of newly identified equities on TSX and NYSE “likeables” market partition. They are revealed by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital. Those ABCs made the case even as these two markets diverged. There were 16 equities in the TSX sample for an aggregate $41.972 invested and 12 in the NYSE sample portfolio for an aggregate $77,436 invested at outset. Through 2012 in both ABC’s, 5 were dropped due to negative change in their Risk Price metrics, finishing 2012 with the TSX sample up 22.64% and the NYSE sample up 38.97%. These substantively different markets moved in different directions. The TSX had declined early in 2012 and then regained ending up 6.02% and the NYSE had started hot and then cooled to obtain a 8.35% gain in the year. Roughly a four-fold gain was made in both ABC portfolios over their markets. The hedge funds HFRI2 recorded only 6.16% on the NYSE ln 2012 prior to their taking fees as supposed earned despite their underperformance. Our ABCs sample portfolios we have continued through 2013 as open display. TSX first declined in 2013 then gained since the end of July. The TSX- ABCs 2 year gain is now total 56.21% through 2013 adding 10.68%. The NYSE - ABCs portfolio 2 year gain totals 50.51%, in 2013 adding 31.51%. Idle cash value is eroded by inflation. Our ‘likeables’ that tend to hold their value and gain are better than cash. We like Capital Safety and Liquidity as has consistently shown and proven works for high capital appreciation, less risk more gain. Sounds strange truth to power3 there is no science in conventional fund portfolio methods. Their artifice claims fees for their playing dice. The TaxCharityTM portfolios we posted January 2013 took-up the challenge for the small investor to invest new cash under the limits of annual Tax shelter provisions. Followers have done well. Our BookBuilderTM builds your wealth for your childrens’ education, or your small savings. August 2013 we issued new 2013 TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios to make use of new tax sheltered savings. As we seek accredited investors to extend our achievement with our new theory of the firm we charitably offer some of our “Perpetual Bond” list of “likeables” proprietary information to help small investors. Because we can we do. “Likeables” portfolios perform. Conventional investment industry projects “expertise” but have only poor models of untestable conjectures claimed as theory. That just culls small investors’ wallets to their unproven use. All the fun, fees and profit is theirs, but next to nothing for you4 are ever left, just their tease, for fees. Page 1 of 6 November 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
  2. 2. “ ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 December 2013 ABCs for TSX Firms portfolio from 31 December 2011 ARC Resources Anvil Mining (Sold on Takeover 21Feb12) Brookfield Asset Management Bombardier (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) BCE Inc (Sold on N* decline 12jun13) Cogeco Cable CCL Industries Canfor Corp Centerra Gold (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) Cenovus Energy (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) Canadian Western Bank (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12) Dollarama Inc Emera Inc (Sold on N* decline 22oct12) Enbridge Inc (Sold on $topLoss 04dec13) Fortis Inc (Sold on N* decline 30un13) Finning International (Sold on N* decline 30jun13) Buy-ins 01Jan13 Gildan Activewear Inc. Linamar Corporation Sun Life Financial Inc. Buy-ins 15Jun2013 CGI Group Buy-ins 31Jul2013 Calfrac Well Services Ltd. MTY Food Group Inc Buy-ins 22Oct2013 Hudsons Bay Company. Celestica Inc. Market Price Symbol Stop/Loss SF (Risk Price) 28.5 ARX.TO AVM.TO 41.9 BAM-A.TO BBD-B.TO BCE.TO 50.33 CCA.TO 84 CCL-A.TO 28.61 CFP.TO CG.TO CVE.TO CWB.TO 84.81 DOL.TO EMA.TO ENB.TO FTS.TO FTT.TO $28 $28 $33 $4 $36 $39 $37 $13 $17 $35 $30 $55 $32 $49 $38 $24 $39 $4 $43 $44 $68 $24 $2 $29 $35 $79 $28 $43 $29 $24 59.4 GIL 44.61 LNR 38.67 SLF $40 $19 $28 $50 $37 $34 34.68 GIB.A $33 $33 31.2 CFW 32.5 MTY $30 $21 $28 $28 17.2 HBC 11.43 CLS $17 $9 $17 $9 47.04 LB $45 $44 Gain 24.75 months 59.23% Gain 24.75 months 59.23% $40 $38 Buy-ins *100 shares 22Dec2013 Laurentian Bank of Canada Portfolio Value 22 January 2014 (including dividends) / 66832.00 / 41972.00 31 December 2011 Net Cash * after 100 Shares 22dec Buy-ins Portfolio Value 22 January 2014 (including dividends) / 244.00 66832.00 / 41972.00 31 December 2011 (Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings) AltaGas Ltd. Page 2 of 6 41.51 ALA November 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
  3. 3. “ ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 December 2013 Bonterra Energy Corp. Canadian Natural Resources Limited ATS Automation Tooling Systems Incorporated DREAM Unlimited Corporation CAE Inc. Crescent Point Energy Corp. Leon's Furniture Limited Power Corporation of Canada Resolute Forest Products Inc AB-Z 2014 TSX Portfolio * after 100 Shares Buy-ins 52.35 36.14 14.18 17.00 14.24 39.83 14.31 31.94 20.72 44403.00 BNE CNQ ATA DRM CAE CPG LNF POW RFP $54 $33 $10 $16 $9 $40 $12 $28 $13 $50 $33 $12 $15 $12 $39 $13 $30 $15 44403.00 22 December 2013 Buy-ins * per 100 Shares 22 December 2013 Acadian Timber Corporation Ainsworth Lumber Company Limited Aecon Group Inc. ARC Resources Ltd. Bell Aliant Inc. Bombardier Inc. (Sold on $topLoss 21jan14) Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. Bank of Nova Scotia (The) Calfrac Well Services Ltd. Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce Crescent Point Energy Corp. Canadian Utilities Limited Vermilion Energy Inc. AB-Z 2014 TSX Portfolio 13.12 4.03 15.95 28.50 26.66 4.00 26.01 64.60 31.20 89.49 39.83 36.71 63.20 ADN ANS ARE ARX BA BBD.B BIN BNS CFW CM CPG CU VET 44330.00 / 44403.00 22 January 2014 / 22 December 2013 $10 $3 $13 $28 $25 $5 $26 $59 $30 $72 $40 $34 $53 Gain 1.0 months $11 $3 $14 $28 $26 $4 $25 $63 $29 $86 $39 $34 $57 -0.16% Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon. Do not expect perfect of Risk Price. Tendency for gain is not the same as pin-the-point on the mule as most seek. Motley brayers talk only of the survivor bias winner. Let others chase gamblers’ risk/reward model that rarely works, as the house wins, on fees you donated. Risk Price works. Proven behaviour of market investors to “likeables” is they like them, that is why 2 of 3 tend to long term gain in stock price once they trade above the Risk Price. It is essential least eight or more ‘likeables’ portfolio at any time to benefit that tendency. (Holding 100 share blocks for 'collaring options’ enhances gain. StopLoss weeds laggards to more simply defend small investor capital.) We share our Risk Price proprietary information to small investors. Pay-forward our charity by designating our normal ‘2 & 20’ fee portion to social charity. Good works deserve5 our help. Page 3 of 6 November 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
  4. 4. “ ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 December 2013 ABCs for NYSE Firms 22 January 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011 Alexander & Baldwin (Sold on N* negative 31jul12) Alaska Air Group American Express Co Brookfield Asset Management Caterpillar (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) Colgate-Palmolive (stock split 2 for 16may2013) Cummins (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) ConocoPhilips (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) CSX Corp Chevron (Sold on N* negative 30nov12) Walt Disney Co GATX Corporation ($topLoss sold 10Jul13) General Electric Company Buy-ins 01Jan13 Gamestop Corp CL A (Sold on $topLoss 14jan14) Hasbro Inc HSBC Holdings PLC ADS Host Hotels & Resorts Inc Huntington Bancshares Inc Intercontinental Exchange Inc Interpublic Group of Cos KLA-Tencor Corporation ($topLoss sold 27aug13) MBIA Inc (Sold on $topLoss 13dec12) Principal Financial Group Inc Tyson Foods Inc CL A Market Price Symbol Stop/Loss SF (Risk Price) $34 $42 $52 $30 $89 $49 $102 $57 $21 $112 $49 $41 $20 $33 $67 $76 $37 $77 $62 $119 $69 $24 $117 $64 $47 $25 GME:US HAS HBC:US HST:US HBAN:US ICE:US IPG:US KLAC:US MBI:US 47.23 PFG:US 35.58 TSN:US $29 $41 $6 $46 $14 $131 $11 $45 $8 $27 $21 $40 $47 $8 $52 $17 $210 $15 $58 $11 $44 $28 OMX:US 34.62 P:US 19.37 RRD:US UBS:US $10 $24 $15 $15 $11 $24 $15 $16 32.00 BBY:US 34.88 HIG:US 18.51 JBL:US $32 $27 $21 $32 $32 $17 34.45 HSH:US $30 $31 12.06 XRX:US $9 $10 ALEX 81.87 ALK*48 91.13 AXP*48 37.82 BAM*26 CAT 128.02 CL*80 CMI COP 27.22 CSX*20 CVX 75.31 DIS*37 GMT*33 27.08 GE*17 40.00 52.37 9.89 55.75 19.57 209.98 17.56 Buy-ins 31Jul2013 OfficeMax Incorporated (Takenover by ODP 01nov13) Pandora Media Incorporated Donnelley RR & Sons Company UBS AG ($topLoss sold 05nov13) Buy-ins 31Aug2013 Best Buy Co. Inc (Sold on $topLoss 14jan14) Hartford Financial Services Jabil Circuit Inc Buy-ins 22Nov2013 Hillshire Brands Company Buy-ins *100 shares 22Dec2013 Xerox Corp Portfolio Value 22 January 2014 (including dividends) / Page 4 of 6 116529.00 / 77436.00 November 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions. Gain 24.75 50.48%
  5. 5. “ ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 December 2013 31 December 2011 months Prior Cash Forward (after Buy-in 22dec13) Net Cash (on StopLoss sales *100 shares (GME, BBY) Current Cash Buy-ins *100 shares 22jan14 Ciena Corp DENTSPLY International Inc Net Cash (on buy-ins *100 shares (CIEN, XRAY) 22jan14) Portfolio Value 22 January 2014 (including dividends) / 24.00 7200.00 7224.00 23.57 CIEN:US 47.78 XRAY 89.00 116529.00 / 77436.00 31 December 2011 $19 $46 Gain 24.75 months $20 $46 50.48% (Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings) Ascena Retail Group Incorporated Deltic Timber Corporation First Horizon National Corp Genworth Financial Inc Westmoreland Coal Company Yelp Incorporated AB-Z 2014 NYSE Portfolio 22 December 2013 Agilent Technologies Inc AGCO Corp AMC Networks Incorporated Amgen Inc. Airgas Incorporated Beam Incorporated Baidu Inc. ADS Biogen Idec Inc Crown Castle International Corporation Cerner Corp. CH Robinson Worldwide Inc Capital One Financial Corp Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. Zions Bancorporation AB-Z 2014 NYSE Portfolio 22 January 2014 (including dividends) / 22 December 2013 20.05 65.43 12.23 16.08 21.82 81.28 ASNA:US DEL:US FHN:US GNW:US WLB:US YELP:US $20 $58 $9 $12 $12 $58 $19 $56 $10 $13 $14 $51 $44 $48 $49 $52 $60 $77 $57 $103 $83 $55 $128 $101 $63 $44 $51 $61 $78 $22 $102 $64 $137 $215 $70 $48 $55 $64 $85 $26 131242.00 56.96 57.62 64.57 114.03 109.9 67.34 173.36 283.34 71.98 54.67 56.54 74.73 98.16 29.22 138524.00 A:US AGCO Corp AMCX:US AMGN:US ARG:US BEAM:US BIDU:US BIIB:US CCI:US CERN:US CHRW COF:US CTSH:US ZION:US / 131242.00 Gain 1.0 months 5.55% Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon. The conventional investment industry cannot prove any assumptions underlying their methods, whose results are 1.03:1, like a coin toss. Avoid those Artful Dodgers playing dice with your wallet. Investors need a real compass6 Risk Price to find their way. Our TaxCharityTM gives proof. Page 5 of 6 November 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
  6. 6. “ ABCs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 December 2013 In our Modal Geometry theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows: 1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared to be responsible for); and, 2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is owed to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its trading connections). The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded more by rigourous observation in the real world of corporate ledgers relation to balance sheets. That is aided with logic, epistemology, and some powerful mathematics, not conventional assumptions with little relevance or real science. Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables” are equities shown valued by investors, tending to continuing gain, which investors have demonstrated a determination to buy and hold at stock prices above the price of risk. That tendency demonstrates 2 of 3 “likeables” gaining for the long term, as we continue to show. Proof is positive, in our TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios extending our proprietary information to small investors. The ABCs and new AB-Zs suit larger wallets. Because we can, while the entire financial industry is so busy blowing bubbles7 with cash from your wallet. Know What You Have. Have What You Know. Our risk averse view works. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help. Hans Goetze, Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited hg.stocktaker@gmail.com Head Office 76 Midridge Close SE Calgary, AB T2X 1G1 1 351 Chemin Boulanger Sutton, PQ J0E 2K0 450 538-1270 E. Goetze, The Modal Geometry of the Firm and Worth of the Trading Connections, 2009 2 https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi 3 http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/ 4 http://riskwerk.com/2013/09/15/earnings-dont-matter-2/ 5 http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-corporate-social-on-our-best 6 http://riskwerk.com/2012/08/26/the-price-of-risk/ 7 http://riskwerk.com/2013/10/14/asset-bubbles-day-october-14-2013/ Page 6 of 6 November 2013 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited. The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein, in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc. StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities. StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.

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