Will Facebook Survive... Us? (Social Media ReConnections 3 Seminar)
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Will Facebook Survive... Us? (Social Media ReConnections 3 Seminar)

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Seriously what is Facebook up to? 10 years, 1.3 billion users, $19 billion for WhatsApp. For years now, for every Facebook addict there's a Facebook hater - even among social media marketing folk. Is ...

Seriously what is Facebook up to? 10 years, 1.3 billion users, $19 billion for WhatsApp. For years now, for every Facebook addict there's a Facebook hater - even among social media marketing folk. Is Facebook another Google, an online titan absorbing and showcasing everything we share in our lives and granting us each a little digital immortality? Or is it just a privacy timebomb waiting for a sociological apocalypse? We live in a time where the implications, power and effects of technology are now growing bigger and faster than any one human mind can comprehend or predict. Is Facebook going to take over the world, or will we eventually give it up - for something else?

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  • Will Facebook remain relevant in the future?Will Facebook survive our (users’) demands (e.g. on privacy) and idiosyncrasies?
  • There are many reasons why this is happening. It’s an inevitable evolution of online marketing. There is no free lunch after all, and we should not expect it. We are supposed to work hard. Nevertheless, the bitterness in the feeling that facebook has “betrayed” us is understandable. Similarly, in the privacy space….
  • http://istrategylabs.com/2014/01/3-million-teens-leave-facebook-in-3-years-the-2014-facebook-demographic-report/http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/online/twitter-overtakes-facebook-as-teens-most-important-social-network-37352/It’s worth noting while Twitter may be the “most important” social network among teens, a recent study from Pew suggests that it’s not the most-used, behind Facebook by a significant margin. Nevertheless, the same Pew survey found that Twitter’s adoption rate among teens had grown by 50% in just one year. The Piper Jaffray study results also indicate that teens believe that Twitter impacts their purchases more than Facebook and Instagram.While that’s all good news for Twitter, there are some discouraging signs for the platform, too. Anewly-released Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted the week of October 11-17 found that 36% of respondents who had joined Twitter don’t use it, and 7% had closed their account. By comparison, just 7% of Facebook members had stopped using it, and only 5% had closed their account.
  • http://istrategylabs.com/2014/01/3-million-teens-leave-facebook-in-3-years-the-2014-facebook-demographic-report/http://www.marketingcharts.com/wp/online/twitter-overtakes-facebook-as-teens-most-important-social-network-37352/It’s worth noting while Twitter may be the “most important” social network among teens, a recent study from Pew suggests that it’s not the most-used, behind Facebook by a significant margin. Nevertheless, the same Pew survey found that Twitter’s adoption rate among teens had grown by 50% in just one year. The Piper Jaffray study results also indicate that teens believe that Twitter impacts their purchases more than Facebook and Instagram.While that’s all good news for Twitter, there are some discouraging signs for the platform, too. Anewly-released Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted the week of October 11-17 found that 36% of respondents who had joined Twitter don’t use it, and 7% had closed their account. By comparison, just 7% of Facebook members had stopped using it, and only 5% had closed their account.
  • Microsoft researcher danahboyd says FB is an anomaly. No one would normally put so much on one platform. We are more likely to spread and separate our engagement.Thus, it ought to be natural for us to put different things on different platforms.
  • http://www.techfieber.de/2012/01/09/gadgetstyle-socialmedia-couch-mit-facebook-ins-bett/
  • http://www.techfieber.de/2012/01/09/gadgetstyle-socialmedia-couch-mit-facebook-ins-bett/
  • http://www.digitaltrends.com/home/heck-internet-things-dont-yet/#!Cfkoo
  • http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-is-selling-just-4-of-the-company-for-2x-as-much-as-yahoo-could-have-paid-to-buy-the-whole-thing-2011-1?IR=T&op=1Yahoo. Actually, the list of suiters also included Friendster, Viacom, MySpace and Google
  • More mature – does this mean that when youth mature into adults, they will find Facebook more useful?
  • http://www.wired.com/2014/03/rolls-royce-ship-bridge/http://wmpoweruser.com/this-is-the-augmented-reality-technology-microsoft-paid-150-million-for-video/http://www.theverge.com/2014/3/25/5545842/pepsi-bus-stop-ad-augmented-realityhttp://www.marketingprofs.com/opinions/2014/24758/are-marketers-seeing-the-whole-picture-the-rise-of-augmented-reality
  • Facebook is building infrastructure for everyone, including youth. Future of Facebook is more than just about social networking.
  • http://www.wired.com/2014/03/facebook-drones/
  • http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/

Will Facebook Survive... Us? (Social Media ReConnections 3 Seminar) Will Facebook Survive... Us? (Social Media ReConnections 3 Seminar) Presentation Transcript

  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Will © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. survive…… US? 1 By Chia Han-Leon Lecturer, Enterprise Social Business, Institute of Systems Science National University of Singapore
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 There are people who “love” Facebook…  More than 1.27 billion users  2.7 billion connected people  1.2 billion monthly active users  13 new users per second © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 2 To illustrate…..
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. The Faces of Facebook by Natalia Rojas (app.thefacesoffacebook.com) 3
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 And there are people who “hate” Facebook  Milennials  Teenagers  Privacy advocates  Disillusioned Marketers >> © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 4 Image: Flickr user owenwbrown]
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 5© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. http://time.com/34025/the-free-marketing-gravy-train-is-over-on-facebook/ http://adage.com/article/digital/brands-organic-facebook-reach-crashed-october/292004/ http://adage.com/article/digital/facebook-admits-organic-reach-brand-posts-dipping/245530/
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 6© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. https://threatpost.com/privacy-advocates-want-to-halt-facebook-acquisition-of-whatsapp/104673 http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/229815 http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/dec/27/facebook-dead-and-buried-to-teens-research-finds
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. Source: iStrategy Labs http://istrategylabs.com/2014/01/3-million-teens-leave-facebook-in-3-years-the-2014-facebook-demographic-report/ Caveat: different range per group The statistics often say: 7
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 7% of 2,449 teens say they don’t use Facebook. 36% of 1,067 teens say they don’t use Twitter. Though, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Source: Marketingcharts.com/Piper Jaffray (Oct 2013) 8 “Like” and “Use” are two different things
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Three popular services Many young adults use Instagram Teens say they prefer Whatsapp. So that apparently leaves most adults, parents, grandparents on… > 90% of the 150 million people on Instagram are under age 35. Of all social media users, Age 18-29: 37% use instagram Age 30-49: 18% Age 50-64: 6% Even primary school students use Whatsapp. However there are no demographics. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. (Maybe when the kids grow up…) 9 http://www.businessinsider.sg/instagram-demographics-2013-12/
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 But in case you’ve forgotten… $1 billion $19 billion © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 10
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 So actually, Everyone is (still sort of) using Facebook. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 11
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 and then Facebook bought Photo by MHK Marketing, used under Creative Commons license. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mkhmarketing and made lots of Oculus’ original backers angry © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 12
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Has the novelty of Facebook worn off? E.g. Why write a post when you can just #love #TagsForLikes #TFLers #tweegram #photooftheday #20likes #amazing #smile #follow4follow #like4like #look #instalike #igers #picoftheday #food #instadaily #instafollow #followme #girl #iphoneonly #instagood #bestoftheday #instacool #instago #all_shots #follow #webstagram #colorful #style #swag © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 13
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Facebook has evolved. It has to. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 14
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Regular Improvements March 2014 © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 15
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 2008: The Publisher © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. Some of Facebook’s key rollouts 16
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 2008: Facebook Chat Real-time Notifications © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 17
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 The Like 2009 © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 18
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 2009: Facebook Pages © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 19
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 So, will Facebook survive? Yes, based on its mass and evolving usage. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 20
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 But is Facebook’s mass also its weakness? Too many eggs in one basket? What if Facebook is smaller? Government-owned/controlled? © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 21
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 http://www.theverge.com/2014/3/13/5488558/danah-boyd-interview-the-era-of-facebook-is-an-anomaly © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 22
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 “The idea of everybody going to one site is just weird.” Give me one other part of history where everybody shows up to the same social space. Fragmentation is a more natural state of being.” Microsoft Researcher danah boyd © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 23
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Facebook vs the Competition © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. A Fragmented Social Web 24
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Two ways to look at it © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 25
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 1. Where else would we go? Platforms that have value Facebook doesn’t provide, in terms of a feature or service. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 26
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 … or in less tangible terms such as privacy or cost of participation. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 27
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 “LinkedIn is for people you know, Facebook is for people you used to know, Twitter is for people you want to know.” © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. i.e. they are all different. 28 The old joke….
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. “Twitter makes me like people I’ve never met and Facebook makes me hate people I know in real life.” - @shaylamaddox Illustration by Kiersten 29 Slightly newer joke ….
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Familiarity Breeds Contempt. 30© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. Knowing someone too well also means knowing his/her faults. Like our relationship with Facebook, family… and even friends.
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 2. Does a “Facebook Killer” exist? © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 31
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Something with:  Identical features/value,  Attractive to/used by many people; and  presumably “better” in some way. None. Or we don’t know (yet). © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 32
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 How about the other giant tech companies? © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 33
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 It’s a network of functions. Not a social network. Just as indispensable as Facebook – probably more(!). © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. Google’s value is “embedded” Important value that we call upon when needed. 34
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Facebook is “wears its heart on its sleeve”. It thrives on the serendipitous and the emotional. Which we enjoy, we crave. The very definition of social network. We don’t think of it as “functionalist”. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 35
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Good to know Have to know © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 36
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 So how will Facebook survive if it’s not very “functional”? What is its “business model”? © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 37
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Analogies Facebook is your sofa/bed. Option, Comfort Unique, Necessary © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. Google is like your fridge. 38 FBED CONCEPT BY DEVIANTOM (deviantom.com)
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Facebook is the food/dish. The “end product”, the one you enjoy. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. Google is the cooking pan. 39 Source: http://www.alohasweets.com/ The tool, the means; the one you work with.
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Function …. “Function”. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 40 Friends, fulfilment, etc. (SOCIAL) And this will change things again.
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 When Google/FB REALLY IS IN your pot, fridge and more. SOCIAL REDEFINED: capacity to share “have-to-knows” before you need it rather than through serendipitous “good to know”. One of the masters of this is… © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 41 IKEA’s kitchen of the future, the SKARP
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 The (somewhat) hidden rival:  Could easily become a social network.  Already had the foundations since 1990s.  Reverse situation: already has a business model. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 42
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 “The Internet is disrupting every media industry… people can complain about that, but complaining is not a strategy. And Amazon is not happening to book selling, the future is happening to book selling.” Amazon's Jeff Bezos looks to the future http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/ Photo: http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2012/04/04/inside-amazon/ Jeff Bezos Facebook expects to be disrupted too. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 43
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Facebook Acquisitions Who tried to buy Facebook in 2006? © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 44
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 was a rival to Facebook for photo-sharing. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 45
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Had the youth demographics that Facebook was “missing”. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 46
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014  “More of my friends have Whatsapp than Facebook.”  “Too much work to use Facebook. Have to boot up computer. Don’t like the mobile version.”  “I still like Facebook because people in it are more mature.” I asked my tween what she thought: © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 47
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 But why buy Oculus Rift? © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 48
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 The future in Virtual Reality. It’s about building the next- generation internet. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 49
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. But not like THIS... 50
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 iOptik Augmented Reality contact lenses. (Note: still requires glasses) © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 51 http://innovega-inc.com/
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Facial Recognition, Augmented Reality, etc. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 52 (Bought by Google in 2012)
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Virtual Reality Interfaces © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 53 Ironman (Marvel/Paramount)
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Gesture Recognition, etc. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 54 http://leapmotion.com
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 All 4 articles from last week of March 2014. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 55
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 56© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. P5 Glove - Virtual Reality Data Glove http://www.cwonline.com/ By the way, who would make up the biggest market for virtual reality gaming? Youth The segment that is “leaving” Facebook…
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Also, Facebook is building drones and satellites to connect more of the world to the internet. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 57
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 So will Facebook survive….Us? YES, but not in the form you imagine today. It’s going to be more than a social network. © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 58
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Social and Functional technologies will merge 59© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. Virtual Reality + Internet of Things + Smart Devices + Social/Collabortive Networking + Predictive Intelligence + …….
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 conclusion Jeff Bezos: “Companies have short life spans…. And Amazon will be disrupted one day. … I don’t worry about it 'cause I know it’s inevitable. Companies come and go. And the companies that are, you know, the shiniest and most important of any era, you wait a few decades and they’re gone.” Charlie Rose: “And your job is to make sure that you delay that date?” Jeff Bezos: “I would love for it to be after I’m dead.” Amazon's Jeff Bezos looks to the future http://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazons-jeff-bezos-looks-to-the-future/ © 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved. 60 Will it?
  • /61 ISS Seminar: SOCIAL MEDIA (Re)CONNECTIONS III – 11 Apr 2014 Thanks for listening! @leonchia sg.linkedin.com/in/leonchia/ leonchia@nus.edu.sg 61© 2014 National University of Singapore. All Rights Reserved.