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  1. 1. 1.0 IntroductionStock market in Malaysia was conducted by Bursa Malaysia. Bursa Malaysia used the indexesstandard by FTSE or Financial Times Stock Exchanged. There are many company listed in BursaMalaysia such as Maybank and Petronas. In this Assignment, our main purpose is to forecastthe outlook for 4 months from now which are end of month of 2011, January, February andMarch. Our Forecasting is based on the Rational Expectation Theory and efficiency markethypothesis. There are many factors that influence our hypothesis such as economic stability,monetary policy, inflation, dividend, budget 2012 and others.1.1 Background of stock market in MalaysiaThe first formal securities business organization in Malaysia was the Singapore StockbrokersAssociation, established in 1930. It was re-registered as the Malayan Stockbrokers Associationin 1937. The Malayan Stock Exchange was established in 1960 and the public trading of sharescommenced. The board system had trading rooms in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, linked bydirect telephone lines (Bursa Malaysia, n.d). In 1964, the Stock Exchange of Malaysia was established. With the secession ofSingapore from Malaysia in 1965, the Stock Exchange of Malaysia became known as the StockExchange of Malaysia and Singapore. In 1973, currency interchangeability between Malaysiaand Singapore ceased, and the Stock Exchange of Malaysia and Singapore was divided into theKuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Berhad and the Stock Exchange of Singapore. The Kuala LumpurStock Exchange which was incorporated on December 14, 1976 as a company limited byguarantee, took over the operations of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Berhad in the sameyear (Bursa Malaysia, n.d). On April 14, 2004, we changed our name to Bursa Malaysia Berhad, following ourdemutualization exercise, the purpose of which was to enhance our competitive position and torespond to global trends in the exchange sector by making us more customer-driven andmarket-oriented. Bursa Malaysia which had been the third largest stock exchange in the regionafter Tokyo and Hong Kong (Ali Abbas, 2004).1.2 DefinitionShort term refers to period or duration in one year or less such 30 days, 3 months and 6months (Mishkin, 2009). 1
  2. 2. Stock market known as common stock represents a share of ownership in acorporation. It is security that is a claim on the earnings and assets of the corporation. Holdersof common stock or stockholders own an interest in the corporation consistent with thepercentage of outstanding shares owned. Stockholder receives whatever remains after all otherclaims against the firm‟s assets have been satisfied. Stockholders are paid dividends as knownpayments made periodically, usually every quarter, to stockholder from the net earnings of thecorporation (Mishkin, 2009). Two type of stocks which are Ordinary Stocks and Preferential Stocks. OrdinaryStocks you own a share of the company. This entitles you to receive profits from the operationsof the company in the form of dividends. At the annual general meeting (also referred to as anAGM), you have voting rights. Ordinary stocks are what you will start to trade in and mosttraders never venture beyond this. Meanwhile, the preferential stocks are different because youwill receive dividends before dividends on ordinary stocks are announced. If the company iswound up, preference stockholders rank above ordinary stockholders in the distribution ofassets. Preference stocks can often have a fixed dividend rate (Bursa Malaysia, n.d). Bull Market is a stock market in which buyer dominates and where prices are on arising trend. Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence and expectationsthat strong results will continue. Its difficult to predict consistently when the trends in themarket will change. Part of the difficulty is that psychological effects and speculation maysometimes play a large role in the markets. Meanwhile, Bear Market is a market condition inwhich the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negativesentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and sellingcontinues, pessimism only grows (Investopedia, n.d). Rally is a period of sustained increases in the prices of stocks, bonds or indexes. Thistype of price movement can happen during either a bull or a bear market, when it is known aseither a bull market rally or a bear market rally, respectively. However, a rally will generallyfollow a period of flat or declining prices. A rally is caused by a large amount of money enteringthe market, bidding up the prices. The length or magnitude of a rally depends on the depth ofbuyers along with the amount of selling pressure they face. For example, if there is a large poolof buyers but few investors willing to sell, there is likely to be a large rally. If, however, thesame large pool of buyers is matched by a similar amount of sellers, the rally is likely to beshort and the price movement minimal (Investopedia, n.d). 2
  3. 3. 2.0 Short Term prospects of Malaysia’s Stock Market RallyShort term stock market rally in Malaysia influenced by many factors by past data history,current and forecasting analysis by the next 4 months from now which are December, January,February and March. Rational Expectation theory is the guideline to forecast the rally ratherthan adaptive expectations. Adaptive expectations only suggest that changes in expectationswill occur slowly over time as past data change and past data history (Mishkin, 2009). Rational expectation theory was developed by John Muth an alternative theory ofexpectations, called rational expectation which is expectations will be identical to optimalforecasts using available information (Mishkin, 2009). Thus Efficiency market hypothesis isjust an application of rational expectations to the pricing of stocks and also to the othersecurities. This hypothesis based on assumption that prices of securities in financial marketsfully reflect all available information (Mishkin, 2009). This available information included three categories of information. First is past datahistory by using published data to forecast what will happen using the past history becausehistory can be repeated. Second information about current information to forecast what will behappen such as the current issues going around that will effects the reaction to future. Lastlyfuture outlook determines by forecast using the two information from past data history andcurrent. So our hypothesis is based on the efficiency market hypothesis by refer the rationalexpectations theory to forecasting the indexes for the short term stock market indexes in BursaMalaysia.2.1 Indexes Hypotheses of short term stock market rallyOur Indexes Hypothesis based on previous history of recorded indexes on Bursa Malaysia(Table and graph 2.1). Based on the table and indexed chart below, there are averageincreased indexes started Month January until June. Next, decreasing indexes started from Juneto September. Then the indexes increased from September to October. Bear Market rallystarted from June to October. Based on 2.1 graph, future forecasting for December until Marchrefers to efficiency market hypothesis. Based on table and graph 2.1, the overvalue recorded onJune at 1579.07 points. The undervalue from the indexes is on May that recorded 1387.13points. The average value between and 1472.10 points and 1579.07 points. 3
  4. 4. Months KLCI INDEXES January 1519.94 February 1491.25 March 1545.13 April 1534.95 May 1558. 29 June 1579.07 July 1548.81 August 1447.27 September 1387.13 Octobers 1491.89 November 1472.10 Table 2.1 Resource: Bursa Malaysia Key IndicatorIndexes Months Graph 2.1 KLCI Indexes (Source: Bursa Malaysia Key indicators) 4
  5. 5. 2.2 Factors that influence future outlook2.2.1: Economic stabilityEconomic stability important in the stock market rally in short term prospect. If Malaysia hadgood economic stability, the stock market will rally. It‟s give the good sentiments for investor.Back to history when Malaysia had first experienced recession in 1985 and last in 1999. Thehistory of financial crisis in 1999 starts in the mid may 1997 caused by the currency crisis thattime. Even more drastic than the plunge in the exchange rate, was the collapse of the stockmarket. Between July and December 1997, the composite index of the Kuala Lumpur StockExchange (KLSE CI) fell by 44.9 per cent. Following a slight recovery in the first quarter of1999, the index again fell, this time to an eleven-year low of 262.70 points on September 1,1998. On the whole, between July 1, 1997 and September 1, 1998, market capitalization in theKLSE fell by about 76 per cent to RM 181.5 billion. In fact, although it enjoyed the best precrisiseconomic fundamentals among countries that were hit by the crisis, Malaysia experienced thebiggest stock market plunge in the region (Mohamed Ariff And Syarisa Yanti Abu Bakar, 1999). Our economic environment had influence by the international economic surroundingalso. On 2008 economy crisis started in United State caused by subprime crisis. At that time,Malaysia also effected from this situation. Its lower export activity because the world demandfall. Thus the Foreign Direct Investment falls and unemployment rate increased. Obviously thestock market price in Bursa Malaysia that time decrease started from 2007 to 2008. Based onthe graph below the stock market indexes at 1246.8 indexes decreases to 858.22 indexes. Resource: treasury department (ministry of financial) 5
  6. 6. The current economic crisis occurs at EU and US because of debt crisis. It also effecton the Malaysia economic stability this year. But this situation only temporary because it willrecover. According IMF, expected on growth economic rates will increase 4 %. Nevertheless,economic growth slow because the growth rates among advance country such as Japan slow,caused impact from tsunami disaster and earthquake. So, outlook for Malaysia economy is ingood condition at 2012. Then, future outlook for stock market indexes will increase moderatecause by slow economic growth and expected stock market will rally.2.2.2: Monetary policyMonetary policy can affect stock process in 2 ways by using the interest rate as medium. First,when fed lowers interest rates, the return on bonds which is an alternative asset to stocksdeclines, an investors are likely to accept a lower required rate of return on an investment inequity. Decline in ke is the required return on an investment in equity, using the Gordon growthmodel lead to a higher value of P0 and raise stock prices. Furthermore, a lowering of interestrates is likely to stimulate the economy, so that the growth rate in dividends, g is the expectedconstant growth rate in dividends is likely to be somewhat higher. The rise in g leads the higherP0 and rise in Stock Prices ( Mishkin, 2009). According to Sunny Tan (1989), interest rates are used to stabilize the economy. A riseof the interest rates can staunch on outflow of capital strengthens the dollar and dampens therisk of high inflation. But the irony is that high interest rates discourage business activityinvolving. When the interest rates falling, shares prices will be nudged up accordingly. Given achoice, an investor would prefer to place his money in shares which will earn him better returnsin terms of dividend and capital appreciation. The improvement liquidity position of the stockmarket is the result of low interest rates offered by the interest- bearing deposits. Investors willalso be encouraged to borrow more to buy stocks and shares when interest rates are low. Thusprices of stocks and shares are pushed up even higher. Monetary policy determined the stock prices. It can impact the as asymmetries in bulland bear markets. Obviously it gives big effects to Bear market rather than bull market.Monetary policy can give impact to asset prices and stock return (Jansen, 2010). The impact ofa surprise policy action in a bear market for most industries is significantly greater than theimpact of surprise monetary policy in a bull market. Controlling for the capacity for externalfinance, stock returns of firms in bear states respond more than firms in bull states. Capacity for 6
  7. 7. external finance is more important in a bear market, as it partially mitigates the larger impact ofmonetary policy in a bear market. Monetary influences the interest rate. Hence, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM, the centralbank) is expected to continue to make incremental changes to its main interest rate, theovernight policy rate (OPR), during the early part of the forecast period as it proceeds with thenormalization of monetary policy. The interest rate of the OPR is influenced by the central bank,where it is a good predictor for the movement of short-term interest rates. BNM has raised theOPR three times since March 2010, by a total of 75 basis points, bringing the rate up to 2.75%,after having cut it to a record low in response to the dramatic downturn in the Malaysianeconomy that occurred in 2009. However, the recent sharp appreciation of the local currency,the ringgit, and signs of slower economic growth suggest that further rises in official interestrates in the next few months are unlikely. BMN does not expect inflation to rise to problematic levels, believing that it will remainmoderate in 2011 as strengthening domestic demand is accompanied by only a gradualacceleration in the rate of price increases. In 2011 we do not expect the OPR to exceed thehigh of 3.5% at which it stood during 2007 and much of 2008. But a quickening in the pace ofdomestic demand growth from 2012 will prompt BNM to raise the OPR above this level duringthe remainder of the forecast period to contain inflationary pressures. Based on the expectedincrease the interest rate, the short term stock market will effect and it will effects rally onBursa Malaysia.2.2.3: InflationInflation rate is one of factor that manipulate stock market rally. Based on study case „MonetaryPolicy Analysis Towards Inflation and Capital Market Performance‟, the analysis show that therehave some significant effects between interest rate and the important things is inflation rategive indirect and direct influence of macroeconomics variable towards return market. Besidesthat, case study from Robert S. Pindyck (1983) inflation rate can causes a large part of themarket decline because the variance of firm‟s real gross marginal return on capital hasincreased significantly, increasing the relative riskiness of investor‟s return on equity. Study casefrom Spanish by Antonio, et al (2008), about the effects of inflation to stock market prices wasthere are the short run responses of daily stock prices on the Spanish market to the 7
  8. 8. announcements of inflation news at an industrial level. The result was negative to stock prices.It means that, the investor fall their investment to the stock market. The current inflation rate for November was last reported at 3.4 percent. So, ourforecasting is inflation rate have negative relationship with stock rally market because it willdiscourages investors decrease their investment and it will effect the stock market indexes andrally will effect.2.2.4: DividendDividend is one factor that influences stock market rally in Malaysia. According to Bursa Sahamwebsite Malaysia dividend refers to the payment or income that person receives as ashareholder from the company or by a corporation. It is the portion of corporate profits paid outto stockholders. Tan. S (1989) the original objective in investing in stocks and share is theexpectation on getting dividend at a fixed period. As situation change so does the investor‟sexpectation. The dividend pay-out is not guaranteed and where it exists at all, the amount you‟ll begiven will be different from company to company and year to year. For example, high-growthcompanies seldom offer dividend because all of their profits are reinvested to help maintainhigher-than-average growth. Conversely, larger companies have less potential for quick capitalgrowth but are more probable to pay healthy dividends which are steadily rising as the years goby. Company‟s Board of Directors has an authority to approved declaration of any dividendbefore it is being paid to stockholder. The day that the Broad of Directors announces itsintention to pay a dividend is called as declaration date. On the declaration date, the Board willalso announce a date of records and payment date. They are three types of declaration date ofdividend which are interim, first and final and final dividend. Firstly, interim dividend refer to adividend is paid out by the corporation when the directors have received the half year financialresult. Secondly, the first and final dividend is the only dividend paid out for that financial year.Lastly is the final dividend is paid when the final profits are shown in the final accounts. On our studied, expected declaration date dividend for stock by companies‟ in Malaysiawill be on March 2012. Based on previous studied “Dividend policy and stock price volatility” inPakistan by Muhammad Nishad et al (2002) mention that they are relationship between the 8
  9. 9. dividend policy and stock price, if the dividend policy is stable high dividend stock will haveshorter duration. On our hypothesis, before the dividend announcement stock market will be increaseuntil the time of announcement, after the announcement the stock market expected to bestable than falls. Once the dividend has been declared, a listed corporation must not make anysubsequent alteration to dividend entitlement. A listed corporation must ensure that alldividends are paid not later than 3 months from the date of assertion or the date on whichapproval is obtained in general meeting, whichever is appropriate.2.2.5: 2012 BudgetFrom the evidence that we have found, 2012 budget that have been read out by primeminister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak as a minister of finance on October 2011 it is also thefactors that influence the stock market rally in Malaysia. Berita harian news by KaladherGovindan mention that the stock market will be increase because 2012 budget gives all benefitto all resident of Malaysia whereas to government servants, students, driver taxi and so on. After the announcement 2012 budget, bursa Malaysia FTSE increase 12.92 more pointor 0.93 percent and close on 1400.05 point with Axiata (+19 cent), Maybank (+18 cent), IOICorp (+17 cent) and tenaga (+1 cent) it represent almost the index total rising. Same goes toUtusan Malaysia news on 9 October 2011, price of stock at bursa Malaysia will expected toincrease after the “Malaysian friendly budget” or “people centric budget” announcement bygovernment. 2012 Budged also gave impact to the stocks of United Malaya Land Bhd, Malaysianresources Corp Bhd and Gamuda Bhd and to education stocks such as Seg International Bhdand help International Corp have a benefit from the announcement of budget 2012. Before theannouncement 2012 budget there is stock market rally happen in bursa Malaysia mention by DrNazri Chief research in Affin Investment bank (Bernama, October 2011) On our expectation to stock market rally on 2012 budget will raise because of thebenefit that resident and nation will accept on next year. On budged 2012 stated they are manydevelopments on economy Malaysia will occur on 2012 such as development on infrastructures,development project and so on. On the other hand, lowers charges income tax give a veryimpact to investors encourage them to buy more stocks on along 2012 with outlook our 9
  10. 10. economic condition is good. So, our forecast on four month future outlook is the stock marketwill rally.2.2.6: Election and politicalElection and political factor also manipulate the short-term stock market rally in Malaysian. Thepast data from journal it proven that political and election have give impact to the short-termstock market. Case study from Stock Market Volatility Around National Elections by (JedrejBialkowski et al. 2007). The findings from the journal is that Country-specific component ofindex return variance can easily double during the week around an election, which shows thatinvestors are surprised by the election outcome. The magnitude of the election shock also wascontribute by factors of a narrow margin of victory, lack of compulsory voting laws, change inthe political orientation of the government, or the failure to form a government withparliamentary majority significantly. Besides that, some evidence is found that markets withshort trading history exhibit stronger reaction. Instead of that, same result goes to case studyfrom Taiwan (Cameron A. Shelton, 2008). On election campaign, the investors will courage tobought stock market because they have confident to the party that will give incentive to theeconomy. So, it has proven that election and political have positive relationship. In Malaysia, our current political is stable although there have demonstration fromopponent party such as demonstration „Bersih‟ but the government still can control thissituation. Then, our general General election (GE) speculated to be held within the next fewmonths. GE could cause a spike in the market risk premium (MRP) again like the last GE thatleading to a weaker market (Liz Lee, 2011). Nomura Research in its Malaysian Outlook 2012report said that GE is the most important event for the market for 2012. It is because MRP roseby 232 basis points between December 2007 and March 2008. The market also plummeted10% in the first day of trading after the March 8 election. Although there are good sentimentfor investor from other country but in Malaysia, election and political gave bad to stock marketin Bursa Malaysia. In nut shell, our forecasting for four month outlook on short-term stock market index atBursa Malaysia will not rally because of the election factor. It is because, it not give sentimentfor investor to invest and it will effect stock market index. Maybe, it caused by the uncertaintyof investor to invest because of their political view. 10
  11. 11. 2.2.7: FestivalFestivals also persuade the rally of stock market in Bursa Malaysia. Within in four month, ourcountry will celebrate two main festival which are Christmas on 25th December and ChineseNew Year on 24th January. Chinese New Year (CNY) can causes highest return in March and April (Lei Gao andGerhard Kling, 2005). The situations happen in China because Chinese investors are „amateurspeculator‟ who often embezzles business fund for private trading. It means that these fundsare used for short-term speculations before they are paid back prior to weekends.Correspondently, the Chinese stock market reaches its peaks shortly before the money iswithdrawn. It means that the money is withdraws close to CNY in February and afterwardsadditional money flows into the market. Researcher of this journal also conclude that theEfficient Market Hypothesis can be confirmed for current period as long they are focus solely oncalendar anomalies. However, Sunny (1989), the Chinese New Year and the Rally are two distinct subjectswhich do not come together to make a Chinese New Year Rally. The Chinese investors are toobusy preparing for their once- a year big celebration and have little or no time to getthemselves involved in the stock market. Moreover liquidity at this time of the year is tight.They prefer to be free from tension and anxiety of monitoring the market during this period ofthe year which is considered most significant to them. Based on the contrast result of Chinese New Year, we had decided that there areaverage increasing in the stock market during Chinese New Year. Even though there good andbad information, we still forecasting the indexes will increased a little. Although their busy to dotheir preparations but prosperity is important. They psychology also influence their reaction togain more money during festival One more celebration on December 2011 is Christmas. According to The Star (2009), atthe end of the year, the market will be a bullish market. It is because November throughJanuary tends to be the best three-month span for stocks (The Star,2009). On 2010 the stockMarket in the Bull Market. Moreover, based on US stock market, the end of year is most reliablerallies of the year because probability is very high. The investor who might normally sell stocksfor tax purposes late in the year could be more likely to hold off this time around. So, Christmasis not one of major factor of stock market but people may say opposite with this statement. Thetrue is Christmas is in month of the end of years. 11
  12. 12. 3.0 ConclusionAs a conclusion, our forecasting for 4 months is average increase but not achieve the highestvalue of the indexes on June with had been recorded the over value of indexes at 1579.07points. Thus, our hypothesis the indexes will not decrease below the undervalue that recordedon September at 1387.13 points. Our forecasting for December, January, February and March ison average value between 1472.10 points and 1500 points. We conclude that based on factors such as monetary policy, economy stability, dividend,2012 budget, election and political, festival and interest rate that influence stock market isaverages rally. From the graph, our prediction starting on December until March, the graphindexes increases start December to March. Even though interest rate and inflation rate effectsthe rally but we confident that this situation not give big impact to rally. The sentiment fromfactor such as economy stability, dividend, election and political, festival and more 2012 budgetwill give impact to the investor to invest. Index Pasaran Saham di KLCI 1600 Outlook forecasting 1550 1500 1450 1400 indexes 1350 1300 1250 Graph 2.1 KLCI Indexes (Source: Bursa Malaysia Key indicator 12
  13. 13. 4.0 ReferencesAhmad Rodoni. (2006). Monetary Policy Analysis Towards Inflation and Capital Market. Journal of economics 40: 27-46.Antonio Diaz and Francisco Jare˜no. (2008). Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case. Research in International Business and Finance 23 (2009) 349–368Bajet 2012 Tumpukan Kepada Mengurangkan Kos Kehidupan. Online on www.1Malaysia.blogsport.com Retrieved on 28 December 2011.Bursa Malaysia site. (n.d). Retrieved on www.klse.com.my/. Online on 7th November 2011.CIAs Outlook on Malaysia 2011- 2015. Retrieved at http://www.malaysia today.net/mtcolumns/from-around-the-blogs/37236-cias-outlook-on-malaysia-2011- 2015. online on 7 November, 2011.Interestrate. Retrieved at http://www.min.com.my/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=126&lang=b m. Retrieved at 7 November, 2011.Investopedia.com. n.d. online at Invhttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asp#axzz1dapD2ctiJansen, Dennis W. and Chun- Li. (2010). Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets. Journal of Empirical Finance. Journal of Empirical Finance 17 (2010) 981–990. Texas A&M University, United States National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan.Jedrej Bialkowski et al. (2007). Stock Market Volatility Around National Elections. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MiamiImageURL&_cid=271679&_user=540 662&_pii=S0378426607004219&_check=y&_origin=&_coverDate=30-Sep- 2008&view=c&wchp=dGLzVlB-zSkzV&md5=d0a88239a65e63f619aa104d332ea936/1- s2.0-S0378426607004219-main.pdf. Retrieved at 3 Disember 2011. 13
  14. 14. Kaladher Govindan. (2011). Bursa Mingguan: Bursa tempatan melonjak. Retrieved at 28 December 2011.Lei Gao and Gerhard Kling (2005). Calender Effects In Stock Market. Diperolehi daripada laman web http://www.aeconf.net/Articles/May2005/aef060105.pdf and Retrieved at 3 Disember 2011.Liz Lee (2011). Genaral Election The Main For Malaysian Market In 2012. Thestar.com.my. Diperolehi daripada laman web http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/11/30/business/9999984&sec=bus iness dan Retrieved at 3 Disember 2011.Mishkin, Frederic S. (2009). The economics of Money, Banking, and financial Markets, 9th. United States: Pearson.Mohamed Ariff And Syarisa Yanti Abubakar. (1999). The Malaysian Financial Crisis: Economic Impact And Recovery Prospects. The Developing Economies, Xxxvii-4 (December 1999): 417–38Mohammed Nishat. (2000). Dividend Policy and Stock Price Volatility in Pakistan. University Karachi.OPR Retrieved at http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=111 online on 7 November, 2011.Report: Monetary Policy To Remain Accommodative Next Year. Retrieved at http://www.theborneopost.com/2011/10/08/monetary-policy-to-remain-accommodative- next-year/. online on 7 November, 2011.Robert S. Pindyck.(1983). Risk, Inflation, and Stock Market. Nber working paper series. National bureau of economic research.Sarenan Salleh. (2011). Turun Naik Pasaran Sekarang. Utusan Malaysia online. Retrieved on 28 December 2011.Sunny Tan (1989). Mysteries of The Stock Market. Penang: Sun Printers Sdn. Bhd. 14