Global Technology Trends    and their Implications for    Governments    An HP Viewpoint Paper    November 20111   Global ...
Contents    Introduction                                                      3    Trend 1: Consumerisation               ...
Introduction“Technology made large       Since mankind fashioned the first flint axe, technologypopulations possible;     ...
Trend 1: Consumerisation                              IT and Consumer Electronics Converge                             Tho...
Figure 2    The PC as fashion item: Some of HP’s current products include the Mini Laptop, featuring covers by designer Vi...
Trend 2: Cloud computing                                Information Technology as a utility                              U...
Figure 3    A rack of blade computers supporting Cloud services in one of HP’s datacentres                                ...
Trend 3: Connectivity                              Everyone and everything online, everywhere                       the se...
Figure 4    HP’s MEMS sensor can detect movements as small as ten femtometres (one billionth the width of a human hair). I...
Marketing organisations. HP’s experience suggests                              Trend 4: Analytics                         ...
Figure 5     HP’s StorageWorks XP family of network-addressable storage. Devices such as these now hold more than 94% of a...
Conclusion“The value of a network is    Like many technological innovations, these trends                And whilst the gr...
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Global technology trends and their implications for governments.

  1. 1. Global Technology Trends and their Implications for Governments An HP Viewpoint Paper November 20111 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  2. 2. Contents Introduction 3 Trend 1: Consumerisation 4 Trend 2: Cloud computing 6 Trend 3: Connectivity 8 Trend 4: Analytics 10 Conclusion 12 About HP HP is the world’s largest technology company and the global leader in government IT. The company has more than 40 years’ experience in this market sector and employs in excess of 20,000 people working in support of more than 200 IT services clients in governments around the world.2 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  3. 3. Introduction“Technology made large Since mankind fashioned the first flint axe, technologypopulations possible; has always driven social, economic and politicallarge populations now change. History is littered with such examples: ironmake technologyindispensible.” tools changed agricultural practice and lead to population growth. Steam technology powered theJoseph Wood Krutch, first industrial revolution and electricity the second.1893 – 1970. American More recently the telephone, radio, television and jetnaturalist, writer, engine have each left their mark on the way thatconservationist and critic humans communicate, travel, work and play. With each new technology, governments have had to consider the implications for their countries and their citizens. When to embrace, when to regulate? When to intervene in markets and when to stand back? How to harness the benefits of innovation whilst mitigating Figure 1 the inevitable negative consequences? From healthcare to homeland security, education to emergency response and welfare to warfare - Information Technology underpins almost all of the Although amplified by the current global economic activities of a modern government. backdrop, many governments are facing long term financial challenges. An aging and growing population, increases in levels of government The trends we discuss are: expenditure as a proportion of GDP (up on average from 25% to 35% over the last 40 years for OECD Consumerisation – how the consumer market for countries) against a backdrop of falling corporate tax PCs, mobile phones and other portable electronic rates (down on average from 40% to 30% over the devices has surpassed the business market as the main last 30 years) and continually rising expectations by driver of innovation in Information Technology and has citizens of the nature of public services are all led to the creation of a global market for online contributing to a sustained crisis in public finances. It is services and Social Networking. increasingly untenable for governments to adopt a process of incremental change in the face of these Cloud Computing – a transformation in the way challenges – they will have to innovate. large-scale computing power is provisioned, away from expensive, inflexible, customised and dedicated Despite the increasingly well-established roles of facilities towards a “pay as you go” utility model, that government and agency Chief Information Officer in turn is driving profound change in the economics of (CIO), Information technology is now too important to running organisations of all types, enabling new be left to the IT department. Many technologies are business models and creating opportunities for now so pervasive that they are driving change in every economic growth. aspect of human lives and are shaping the environment in which governments operate. Connectivity – the increasingly ubiquitous Government CEOs, not just CIOs, need to understand availability of the Internet, both as a business and a these technologies and the possibilities they create for consumer tool, and how changes in the underpinning transformational change. technology will enable an ever-increasing range of devices and physical objects to be connected to and This paper presents four global trends in Information monitored by the Internet, including the earth itself. and Communications Technology that HP believes are of such significance to that they warrant attention from Analytics – how new analytical technologies allow government Chief Executives. the large datasets generated by online activity to be processed to extract meaning, leading to more informed strategy, better policy making and above all, optimised operational performance. 3 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  4. 4. Trend 1: Consumerisation IT and Consumer Electronics Converge Though Facebook’s founder has downplayed the“The old paradigm of Ten years ago most people had more sophisticated role that his company’s service played in the Arabseparate consumer and IT facilities at work than at home. This has now Spring, there seems little doubt that social mediaprofessional lives is over. been reversed. Consumer devices are now helped catalyse the protests and enabledPeople want a seamless, participants to publicise events with each other andsecure, context-aware frequently both more capable and less expensive.experience at home, at This trend is referred to as “consumerisation” and is the outside world.4 That dissident blogger, Slimwork, at play or on the leading to a rapid convergence between the IT and Amamou was appointed as a Minister in the interimroad.” consumer electronics industries. The rise of government in Tunisia following the ousting of smartphones, domestic use of PCs, Internet- President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali speaks volumes.Leo Apotheker, former But it is not only in countries which lack a functioningCEO of HP. connected games consoles and tablet computers has turned personal computing devices from corporate democratic system that the impact of social tools into affordable, fashionable consumer goods. networking on politics has been felt. The success of President Obama’s Internet fundraising before the The consequences of these changes are threefold. 2008 election is well trailed. Facebook’s general Firstly, the consumer market has overtaken the election coverage in the UK in 2010 is credited as business market as the primary (though far from establishing the first ‘two-screen election’ (TV and only) source of innovation in IT. As a result Internet).5 And in a move considered radical, the consumer expectations are starting to have a Northern Ireland assembly used Twitter to announce significant impact on the demands placed on the results of the “D’Hondt” process for allocating corporate IT functions, both by an organisation’s ministerial portfolios and allow online discussion of customers and its workforce. the outcomes following the elections in May 2011.6 Second, mobile devices are increasingly the As people become increasingly adept at using these dominant platform for Internet access. In the UK devices and services at home, they are increasingly over a quarter of adults (27%) and almost half of all unwilling to take a step back when they come to teenagers (47%) now own a smartphone. The work. They want to take advantage of the proportion of those in low income groups with technology with which they are familiar at home so mobile phones is more than twice as high as those they can be as productive, mobile, connected and with PCs .1 This growth is not just a phenomenon of informed in their working lives. They also expect to industrialised countries. At present Africa has more be able to uses these technologies to interact with than half a billion cellphones, but only a very small their government, both as users of services and to portion of them are smartphones. By 2015 it’s participate in the democratic process. predicted that there will be 850million mobile phones in Africa and nearly 128m will be able to How can governments address consumerisation? access the Internet.2 The most obvious benefit of this trend is its power to change the way IT facilities are provided for the Third, a global market has emerged for online workforce. UK government departments spend services. The biggest or fastest growing between 2.5% and 40% of their external IT spend corporations in many sectors are now software on desktop computing7. By allowing staff to use companies3: Amazon in bookselling, Netflix in their own computing facilities (a trend often referred video rentals, Skype in telecoms, Google in to as “Bring Your Own Device” or BYOD) advertising, Linkedin in recruitment, Apple and organisations are able to reduce costs and improve Spotify in music and so on. It is in this vein that productivity. The US Veterans’ Agency has already social networking services have emerged. At the announced plans to introduce a BYOD scheme in time of writing Facebook has more than 800 million the near future 8. users and Twitter 200 million. The Chinese social networking site Tencent QQ claims 813 million users. By starting to offer in one place a range of online services that used to require visits to many different Internet sites (such as games, photographs, 4 “Facebook’s Arab spring role ‘overplayed’, says Zuckerberg” videos, email and messaging) social media http://blogs.ft.com/fttechhub/2011/05/facebook-eg8/ companies have become consumer platforms in their 5 Facebook 2010 General Election Campaign own right. http://www.holmesreport.com/casestudy-info/9482/Facebook- 2010-General-Election-Campaign.aspx 6 NI Executive DHondt picks unveiled on Twitter 1 Research by the office of the UK telecoms regulator, Ofcom http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-13397686 7 http://media.ofcom.org.uk/2011/08/04/a-nation-addicted-to- Cabinet Office: Departmental Business Plans smartphones/ http://www.dpm.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/news/department- 2 Informa Telecoms and Media business-plans-updated 3 8 Marc Andreessen - Why software is eating the world, Wall VA CIO: Personally Owned Devices OK Street Journal, 20th August 2011 http://www.govinfosecurity.com/articles.php?art_id=4203 4 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  5. 5. Figure 2 The PC as fashion item: Some of HP’s current products include the Mini Laptop, featuring covers by designer Vivienne Tam, and the Envy Laptop, featuring Beats Audio by rapper Dr Dre. Creating products with consumer appeal has become an essential part of the Information Technology industry. Research by Citrix Systems has discovered that 44% of • To gather customer insight firms already have policies in place to support BYOD • Internal collaboration and communication and 94% expect to do so by mid 2013.9 When combined with Cloud computing (see below) BYOD Challenges of consumerisation makes an asset-free IT function possible. One of the reasons innovation has flourished in the consumer market is that the barriers to entry are lower. Clearly the impact of consumerisation goes much Corporate customers typically demand higher levels of further than its ability to change how organisations security, robustness and stability in product lifecycles provision IT. Away from the more dramatic uses of than domestic users. These are all issues that, whilst far social media as illustrated above, the trend has a more from insurmountable, must be actively managed when mundane but no less transformational contribution to embracing BYOD policies. the work of government. In 1992 UK Prime Minister John Major launched his “Citizen’s Charter” as an Social media presents an educational challenge to attempt to raise the standard of public services by both citizens and public servants alike – the permanent allowing people to voice their opinions by telephone. record it creates changes the nature of the relationship The initiative was a failure, but in many ways was a between the parties. radical step ahead of its time. Enabling participation in public service delivery is now seen as a core But ultimately, the most significant challenge implicit in component of Open Government and mechanisms consumerisation is that it drives organisation to change such as Major’s “Cones Hotline”10 have been to a the way they think about technology. The days of large part rendered redundant by social media. These asking “what technology can I use to solve my services provide a public channel for individuals to business problem?” are gone. The question should be broadcast their discontent (and sometimes approval) to “given that all my customers have this technology, how institutions and politicians, and to campaign with like- can I take advantage of it?” minded individuals with whom they otherwise would have no opportunity to engage. Informal research by Questions for government chief executives HP suggests that government organisations around the In order to test their government or organisation’s world are embracing social media in four key ways: readiness to exploit this trend, HP believes leaders should ask themselves these questions: • Encouraging participation in the political process • As part of service delivery (by, for example • How could a “Bring Your Own Device” policy dispelling myths, addressing complaints and reduce costs and improve productivity for my pushing communications in support of areas such as organisation? human services, public safety, consumer affairs and • Am I actively managing my organisation’s use of taxation) social media to engage with service users and opinion formers? 9 • Is the development services that exploit mobile Survey of 700 companies in seven countries, August 2011 http://www.citrix.com/English/NE/news/news.asp?newsID=231 technology part of my organisation’s business 7099 strategy? 10 A centrepiece of Major’s Citizens’ Charter, the cones hotline was launched in 1992 and allowed citizens to enquire about • Is my organisation’s use of technology radical roadworks where traffic cones appeared to have been deployed enough to meet citizen’s expectations in terms of the for no reason. Though intended as a mechanism to make public cost to serve or nature of the services provided? services more accountable and citizen friendly it came to be seen as petty, ineffective and a waste of money, and was quietly dropped in 1995.5 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  6. 6. Trend 2: Cloud computing Information Technology as a utility Using Cloud platforms organisations can offer“If computers of the kind I Cloud computing describes the provision of large- sophisticated business solutions on a “pay as youhave advocated become scale IT resources on a utility basis, as opposed to go” basis with almost no capital costs. By removingthe computers of the the traditional use of heavily customised and financial and technical barriers to growth andfuture, then computing distribution (using the Internet), businesses embracingmay someday be dedicated facilities. Whilst this is in practical terms aorganised as a public straightforward concept, its consequences are Cloud can compete more easily in internationalutility just as the telephone profound. Cloud computing can be compared, as markets. Companies such as Facebook, eBay,system is a public utility... American computer scientist John McCarthy Amazon and LinkedIn are all examples of thethe computer utility could predicted back in 1961, to other public utilities such transformative power of Cloud on business modelsbecome the basis of a in the consumer space. The challenge fornew and important new as the telephone or electricity grid.industry.” governments is to find ways of exploiting Cloud to Comparison with electricity supply provides a good change the ways that their businesses operate.John McCarthy, 1927 – illustration of the nature of the change and the2011, American benefits of Cloud computing. Before the birth of the How can governments exploit Cloud?Computer Scientist,speaking in 1961 electricity generating industry, any enterprise Many government Chief Information Officers are needing power had to invest in and run facilities, already starting to embrace Cloud. The US Federal such as a steam engine or generator. These were Government announced a “Cloud First” policy in inflexible, inelastic and did not scale easily. When February 2011, and the UK’s Cloud procurement in Nikola Tesla’s work on Alternating Current during the autumn of 2011 received nearly 400 the mid-19th century made possible the transmission expressions of interest in just a few weeks. Inevitably of electricity over long distances without loss , the current economic challenges facing many centralised generation rapidly overtook local governments have tended to focus attention on the facilities as the dominant model, and indeed this direct cost reductions associated with migrating change is credited as a key enabler of the second existing applications onto a Cloud platform. Such a industrial revolution. As electricity became more move can reduce operational IT costs by up to 50%. widely available the uses to which it was put changed dramatically. Appliances such as the Whilst this reduction is clearly worthwhile, in the washing machine and vacuum cleaner freed longer term Cloud computing will have a much women from domestic chores and allowed them to greater impact by enabling innovation in enter the workforce. Clean urban mass transit and government services. As such, the business impact of street lighting changed our cities, and so on. Cloud is a topic with which government chief executives and policymakers should concern“Cloud computing is a When any facility, be it electricity, telephony or themselves. Cloud removes IT from organisationalmodel for enabling computing, is provided as a utility, consumers only silos, drives use of standardised solutions and makesconvenient, on-demandnetwork access to a pool need to pay for what they use. Consumption can it easier to expose Information Systems outside of theof configurable computing scale up and down in line with demand without the organisation, to partners, suppliers or customers.resources (e.g. networks, need for capital expenditure and it becomes These changes have a dramatic impact on howservers, storage, possible to switch suppliers easily and quickly in organisations can collaborate, operate commonapplications and services) pursuit of improved terms. The Cloud model processes and share data – removing many of thethat can be rapidly therefore has the effect of making the amount of traditional barriers to “joined-up” government andprovisioned and releasedwith minimal management computing resource available to any given driving both openness and participation.effort or service provider organisation both infinite and infinitely variable.interaction.” Cloud offers the possibility for countless areas of Cloud platforms can either be shared with other government to use common systems. For instance,The United States NationalInstitute of Standards and customers (the “Public Cloud”) or where higher the Integrated Intelligence Pilot, or I2P, is a cross-Technology (NIST) levels of security, resilience or performance are agency Cloud effort in the United States that allowsdefinition of Cloud required, can be dedicated to a single enterprise (a users on the Intelligence Community’s classifiedComputing “Private Cloud”). Both models change the “art of network to run queries across agencies. “Instead of the possible” with regards to which business taking data from CIA-specific or NSA-specific processes can be automated and how this can be repositories, or FBI or DIA, you’ll be able to query achieved. For example, it becomes much easier to via the cloud into those organizations and ask, ‘do conceive a viable case for the digitisation of cyclical you have information that meets this question?’, and processes where demand for IT capability varies they’ll be able to say, ‘yes or no,’” according to significantly over time or is unpredictable (such as National Security Agency CIO Lonny Anderson11. delivering examinations or processing annual tax returns). It can also enable entirely new business models. 11 “NSA Reveals Cloud Plans” April 2011; available from http://www.readwriteweb.com/enterprise/2011/04/the-nsa-is- moving-towards-a-cl.php 6 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  7. 7. Figure 3 A rack of blade computers supporting Cloud services in one of HP’s datacentres the datacentres involved in delivering Cloud services Other examples of potential cross-agency places significant demands on electricity grids for collaboration enabled by community clouds include power and cooling. Enabling provision of this type social services agencies that collaborate to assist of infrastructure should be a concern of governments individual citizens and families using integrated wishing to drive adoption of Cloud or encourage the assessment frameworks and case management; and growth of Cloud providers in their economies. economic departments that use the same data sets and have a common need for peak-processing and Questions for government chief executives high-performance computing. In order to test their government or organisation’s readiness to exploit this trend, HP believes leaders Challenges of Cloud Computing should ask themselves these questions: No new technology is ever a panacea and Cloud computing is no exception. The changes it drives • Has your government or organisation considered raise several concerns that governments must how it could use Cloud to deliver services in address if the associated economic benefits are to different ways, for example by collaborating with be harnessed: other departments, citizens and businesses? • In a Public Cloud model, users do not always • Does your government or organisation possess know where their information is stored, raising the necessarily skills and knowledge to issues of custodianship and data protection. understand, communicate and exploit Cloud? • Moving data away from dedicated facilities into • Does your government have an appropriate plan the Cloud can raise concerns over information to deliver the infrastructure necessary to allow security (often offset by comparison with the poor public and private sector organisations and security of the in-house facilities they will replace). citizens to exploit Cloud computing? • Exploiting Cloud computing, like any utility, is • Are the ways in which your organisation classifies principally a matter of achieving economies of and uses information presenting a barrier to the scale. This raises questions about the role of the adoption of Cloud computing? centre, budgets, the most appropriate procurement models to adopt and how these are governened on a cross-government basis. • Large-scale adoption of Cloud changes the role of the IT department and its relationship with suppliers. The disciplines of Service Integration and Management take on a new level of significance. Finally, exploitation of Cloud computing demands access to high-speed broadband, and the scale of7 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  8. 8. Trend 3: Connectivity Everyone and everything online, everywhere the search for new oil reserves.14 As new sensors,“The Internet is the first Consumerisation and the development of Cloud including those which mimic taste and smell,thing that humanity has computing have only been possible because of the become available, the potential will widen further.built that humanity doesn’t HP expects to pilot other uses for CENSE within the dramatic increase in penetration of affordable fixed-understand, the largest line and mobile internet connectivity. In December next three years and make them commerciallyexperiment in anarchy wehave ever had.” 1995 the global number of Internet users stood at available within four. 16million.12 By June 2011, this number hadEric Schmidt, Chairman of reached 2,110 billion. One third of the world’s How can governments harness connectivity?Google population is now online. In the last five years, Opportunities for governments to exploit developing countries have increased their share of developments in connectivity fall broadly into three the world’s total number of Internet users from 44% categories. The first is to make greater use of mobile in 2006 to 62% in 2011. Internet users in China Internet devices for those processes involving field- represent almost 25% of the world’s total.13 based personnel, such as social workers, healthcare professionals, the police or armed forces. In Notwithstanding its potential to embrace more of the particular where these rely on two-way flows of world’s population, the transformation enabled by information, mobile technology offers the opportunity the Internet is far from over. Increasingly its growth for a more personalised service. is driven not only from reaching more users, but from the ever more diverse range of devices which can Staff can be equipped with technology that allows be connected to it. These include both new end-user them to do their job, wherever they are and without devices, including phones, tablets, televisions, cars the need to return to base. They can be routed and computers embedded in domestic and industrial between locations more effectively, and if required, equipment as well as sensors that can detect heat, their progress can be monitored. Transactions can light, sounds and movement. be closed out electronically as a “first time fix” and services can be personalised by drawing on Increasingly, these new connected devices are centrally-held data to inform customer engagement. “context-aware”, they incorporate GPS (Global By giving mobile workers more flexibility, they can Positioning System) technology to understand where be more productive and real estate costs can be they are, and this, together with information about reduced. who the user is, can be used to target the delivery of information and services accordingly. The second opportunity arises from the new modes of communication enabled by ubiquitous Anyone who owns a smartphone or tablet will also connectivity. Online chat is starting to supplant both be familiar with the way that the display can reorient email and the telephone as many consumers’ itself to align with the direction in which the device is preferred method to interact with businesses, and being held, or how games can be controlled by has application in government’s engagement with tilting it from side to side. This is possible because citizens too. By telephone, a call centre agent can the device contains an accelerometer which detects handle only one call at a time. Using online chat, movement. More sensitive sensors such as those not only can an agent multiplex (handle more than developed by HP’s MEMS (Micro Electro one client at a time) but the experience can be made Mechanical Systems) group can measure motion richer by incorporating pre-built responses to and movement up to 1,000 times smaller (sufficient common problems or links to pictorial or video aids, to measure a heartbeat). By linking many such and barriers of language, accent or geography are sensors to the Internet, collecting the resulting data easier to overcome. To the generation brought up and then storing and processing this using Cloud with text messaging and social networking, this computing, a whole range of new applications for IT method will become as natural as the telephone is to become possible. The ultimate manifestation of this older generations. trend is for everything to be capable of being connected to the Internet, including the Earth itself. The third set of opportunities arises from the use of sensors. Any process involving physical objects, This capability exists today and is at the heart of whether movable or not, has the potential to benefit HP’s “CENSE” (Central Nervous System for the from embedded intelligence. Earth) project. In 2010, HP announced that Shell oil would be the first customer for this technology, which it will use to support seismic exploration activities in 12 International Data Corporation www.idc.com 14 13 International Telecommunications Union Shell and HP to Develop Seismic Sensing Solution http://www.itu.int/ITU- http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press_kits/2010/sensin D/ict/facts/2011/material/ICTFactsFigures2011.pdf gsolutions/index.html 8 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  9. 9. Figure 4 HP’s MEMS sensor can detect movements as small as ten femtometres (one billionth the width of a human hair). It is 1,000 times more sensitive than accelerometers used in the Nintendo Wii, Apple iPhone or a car’s airbag system and is based on the same piezo-electric technology used in the company’s inkjet printers. The energy consumption of buildings can be to a certain extent a generational problem which the monitored in real time and managed to lower costs. passage of time will solve - three quarters of those Supply chains, such as those found in defence who have never been online are over 75. logistics or the provision of consumable products to Nevertheless, “Digital Exclusion” still presents an hospitals can be monitored and optimised. The built immediate problem – a third of disabled people in realm, such as roads, bridges and rail networks can the UK have never been online.15 be monitored to allow proactive maintenance. Transport systems and the networks that control So the challenge for governments is how to make traffic management can be monitored to spot sure that the power of connectivity (and by emerging problems and trigger responses (such as implication, the other trends described in this paper) variable speed limits) that improve flow. As the does not simply pass by those who rely most on capabilities of mobile devices and sensor public services. This requires effort to encourage the technology converge further, other applications will rollout of high-speed broadband, in particular in be possible. For example, a personal device rural areas that are not priorities for investment by containing an accelerometer sensitive enough to telecommunications providers. It also demands detect a heartbeat or blood pressure could have programmes of education and support for those huge benefits in the delivery of automated or remote unable to become connected on their own. healthcare, detecting the early signs of a stroke or other disease or allowing an elderly person to live in Questions for government Chief Executives? their own home whilst remaining under the In order to test their government or organisation’s supervision of the healthcare system. readiness and capability to exploit this trend, HP believes leaders should ask themselves the following The number and capability of connected devices is questions: increasingly such that the day is approaching when the question will no longer be “how can this data be • How could mobile workers deliver better services acquired?” but rather “what can be done to make and become more productive if they were use of the data once it is?” Developments in equipped with better access to real-time, context- connectivity change the boundaries of government. aware information? The edge is no longer the office, or a call centre, but the street, or people’s home. Connectivity helps • Where could intelligence be embedded in government become more collaborative and more physical equipment to reduce costs and improve proactive. outcomes? Connectivity Challenges • What expectations might citizens and businesses As the statistics on Internet penetration and have of new ways in which they might interact smartphone takeup suggest, encouraging many online with government? citizens to become connected is not a significant problem. But even in developed nations there is a • How could energy, transport, consumable or proportion of the population who have yet to use the other costs be controlled through the use of real- Internet. There are nearly nine million Britons who time information? have never been online, four million of whom are amongst the most disadvantaged in society. This is 15 RaceOnline2012 http://raceonline2012.org/about-us9 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  10. 10. Marketing organisations. HP’s experience suggests Trend 4: Analytics that private sector organisations are much more likely than their public sector counterparts to Meaning-based Computing incorporate this data into their processes. Such “Firms that adopt data- Analytics may not at first glance appear to constitute sources are usually both more accurate anddriven decision making a significant trend, after all searching for meaning in refreshed more regularly than data collected directlyhave output and by government agencies, both because citizens are large data sets is arguably the problem which theproductivity that is 5-6%higher than what would first computers were invented to solve. However, less wary of providing data to commercialbe expected given their three factors are combining to expand the potential organisations and tend to do so more frequently.other investments and for analytical technologies across government.information technology The potential to analyse such large volumes ofusage.” The first is the near exponential growth in the volume electronically stored data can in itself enableBrynjolfsson, Hitt and Kim, of electronically stored data. The proportion of data technologies which were once the stuff of science"Strength in Numbers: held electronically increased from 25% in 2000 to fiction. One such example is Google’s translationHow does data-driven 94% in 200716, a year which saw the total volume software that works by searching for a pre-existingdecision-making affect firm of stored data on earth estimated at 295 exabytes.17 translation of a word or phrase in hundreds ofperformance?", MIT, This figure is estimated to be doubling roughly every millions of pairs of electronically stored documentsDecember 2011 three years. Some of this increase has arisen from which have already been translated into different the digitisation of records previously kept on paper; languages. The records of national and global from government or business activities, the government organisations have proven to be some conversion of printed or recorded works into of the best source material for this system, including electronic format and the on-line activities of Canadian Hansard, the records of the European consumers uploading media and blogging. Much Parliament and more than 200 billion words of the however is generated automatically, as described in United Nation’s records in its six official languages. Trend 3 – Connectivity. Analytics underpins and in some cases, defines The second factor is the continuing expansion in the many of the most successful companies. Amazon’s computing power available to process these large book recommendations; Tesco’s Loyalty Card and data sets. Moore’s Law,18 whether by dint of Internet shopping schemes; Google’s PageRank and scientific foresight or self-fulfilling prophecy has AdSense; and UPS’ logistics processes are all continued to deliver a doubling of the computing enabled by this technology. Such is the potential capability available at a given price point every two ROI from exploitation of analytics that it was one of years for the last half century, and the power of the few areas in which HP continued to see clients Cloud computing now makes this capability more investing during the nadir of the global financial accessible than ever. crisis in 2008. Experience from commercial organisations suggests that well-executed investments The third factor contributing to the increased can pay back within as little as six months. potential of Analytics is the development in capability of commercially-available software tools. How can governments exploit analytics? Over the last decade and a half, these have evolved Governments have traditionally relied heavily on from straightforward data warehousing and records analytical resources to support policymaking and management products to embrace an ever-widening reporting, and in many cases have become adept set of capabilities. They include data mining, users of technology to support these processes. predictive modelling, statistical inference, pattern However, this analytical capability tends to work in matching, regression and sequence analysis and a purely reactive way. text search. Such technologies allow organisations to conduct real-time decision making about the most In comparison to many commercial organisations, appropriate intervention or response to a given HP believes that governments are often under- situation, and can dramatically improve operational invested in analytical technology to support the performance and productivity. operational side of their activities. Much of the investment in digitally-enabled government services A further consequence of the explosion in stored has largely automated rather than add intelligence data is the commercial availability of “off the shelf” to processes. Whilst commercial organisations do databases of personal data in most countries, for exploit Analytics in support of corporate planning, example from Credit Reference or Consumer they derive much greater benefit when the technology is applied to the operational side of their 16 The world’s technological capacity to process information. businesses. Potential applications of analytics in Science, April 2011. government organisations therefore include those http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6025/60.full 17 functions common to both public and private sector One exabyte (1EB) is one quintillion bytes, or one billion organisations, such as application and eligibility gigabytes. 18 Moores Law: “the number of transistors that can be placed processing, fraud detection, debt collection, contact inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately management, marketing, compliance and security. every two years“ has held true since first postulated in 1965 and looks set to remain valid at least until the end of the decade. 10 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  11. 11. Figure 5 HP’s StorageWorks XP family of network-addressable storage. Devices such as these now hold more than 94% of all the stored information on earth Many government organisations have done work to • Improved use of analytical technology often leads try and minimise the numbers of “unnecessary to situations where benefits accrue in a different contacts” that they have with citizens (either face to part of government to that which must make the face or by telephone), but very little work has been investment, complicating the development of done on identifying ways of adding value to those business cases and benefits realisation. contacts which do take place. Integration of Analytical technologies into branch, call centre and Ultimately, addressing either of these challenges is a online government services would allow a more matter of political will and an ability to sell the tailored and personalised response, and deliver the upside in terms of improved operational outcomes improved outcomes from customer contact which and productivity. private sector organisations enjoy. Analytics is not in itself a strategy. As with any As well as improving operational performance information technology, successful exploitation can another potential benefit of Analytics in government only be achieved if deployment is supported by is enabling a more proactive approach to service changes in culture, behaviour and processes. Using delivery. For example analysing internal and data to drive interaction with citizens also requires external data sets could allow social services good quality data if it is to succeed, demanding organisations to identify “at risk” children, complementary investment in data cleansing and healthcare organisations could identity patients likely maintenance alongside technology implementation. to require re-admission, or who are in danger of suffering delayed discharge from hospital due to Questions for government chief executives their domestic circumstances (so called “bed In order to test their government or organisation’s blocking”). Pre-emptive intervention in such readiness to exploit this trend, HP believes leaders circumstances is nearly always both more effective should ask themselves these questions: and cheaper than reactive responses. • Is your organisation exploiting analytics to add Challenges in adopting analytics intelligence to its interaction with citizens and Analytical software is not expensive, and the improve operational performance? payback timescales can be short. Of course its implementation is not without its challenges. HP’s • Are there ways in which analytical technologies experience is that its use in government is typically could help drive proactive rather than reactive complicated by the following factors: interventions in your field? • Any process which leads to an increase in • Are there additional data sets that could add storage or capture of data about citizens and their additional analytical capability to operational activities can be politically sensitive, and lead to decision-making in your organisations? accusations of “big brother” politics and the rise of the database state.11 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
  12. 12. Conclusion“The value of a network is Like many technological innovations, these trends And whilst the growth in take up of theseproportional to the square have not arisen in isolation from each other, rather technologies has often been close to exponential,of the number of as we have seen, they are inter-dependent. Cloud there are many people who, for a number ofconnected users.” computing would not have become a reality without reasons, are either unable or unwilling to takeMetcalfe’s Law. Attr’ to developments in very large-scale computing advantage of them – often those most reliant onRobert Metcalfe, 1946- , architectures driven by the need to support global government services. Digital exclusion presents aAmerican Electrical businesses such as Amazon or eBay. These significant barrier to exploitation of these trends,Engineer, co-inventor of businesses would not have been able to grow to this even in the most developed countries and is aEthernet and founder ofcommunications scale without Internet connectivity enabling them challenge which commerce alone will not solve.technology company reach hundreds of millions of consumers without3com, acquired by HP in building a store in every high street. And consumers In this document we have often sought to draw2009. would not be buying laptops, tablets and parallels between the way in which the private and smartphones in their millions if they did not offer a public sectors are embracing Information range of new opportunities for entertainment, Technology. Doing so can provide a good education and commerce not available via other indication of where governments can look for ideas. channels. But such comparison does not provide the full picture of governments’ obligations in the face of these It is arguable that many of the macro political changes. They must both reflect and direct their pressures that governments are currently societies’ use of technology. experiencing have arisen as a result of the trends described in this paper. Citizens’ expectations of Guttenberg’s invention of the movable type printing greater transparency, more participative press is credited as playing a key role in the democracy, improved collaboration between renaissance, the reformation and the scientific government agencies in more open delivery models, revolution; events that spanned 300 years of human greater choice and flexibility, and more development. It is only just seventy years since the personalised services have all been influenced by first commercial computers and twenty since the first the impact of technology on media and commerce commercial use of the Internet. Whatever history during the last twenty years. comes to call the revolution spurned by modern Information Technology, its impact has only just As well as being co-dependent, when taken begun to be apparent. together, these technologies are multiplicative in their combined effect. Metcalfe’s Law (originally used to describe telecommunications networks but more recently also used to describe the impact of the Internet and the services accessible from it) states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users. As the number of About the authors connected users on the networks underpinning the trends described in this paper starts to encompass a James Johns is Director of Strategy for Public Sector significant proportion of the population of the earth, in HP UK and Ireland. With a background in the power that these technologies have to drive software development, consulting and business change is almost unquantifiable. development he has more than 25 years experience in the technology industry in both the private and“Technology is a queer Like any technology, those we describe in this paper public sectors.thing. It brings you great have the potential for negative, as well as positive,gifts with one hand, and it consequences. Some of the challenges implicit instabs you in the back with James can be contacted at james.johns@hp.com orthe other.” each trend individually have been outlined above. on +44 (0) 7790 493971 In the same way that their benefits are amplifiedCP Snow, Baron Snow of when taken together, an ever more significantthe City of Leicester, David Rimmer is the leader of the Global reliance on Information Technology will inevitably1905 – 1980. Former Government Industry practice for HP Enterprise also drive a multiplication of their detrimental effects.Civil Servant and British Services. With a background in strategic consulting,government minister, systems implementation, and process improvement,speaking to the New York As technology increasingly underpins commerce, the he has extensive experience in helping governmentTimes in 1971. operation of our critical national infrastructure and organisations meet today’s challenges. the work of governments, the threat from cyber criminals has become a major and very real David can be contacted at david.rimmer@hp.com concern. The permanent record and light-speed or on +44 (0) 7790 490827 transmission of information associated with online activity are rightly driving concern about privacy and digital rights. 12 Global technology trends and their implications for government © Copyright Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.

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