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HTown Day 2012 - Dr. Stephen Klineberg

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Dr. Stephen Klineberg, Co-Director of th Rice Unisity Kinder Institute for Urban Research, presents on "Future Development: Tracking Houston's Economic & Demographic Changes through 31 Years of …

Dr. Stephen Klineberg, Co-Director of th Rice Unisity Kinder Institute for Urban Research, presents on "Future Development: Tracking Houston's Economic & Demographic Changes through 31 Years of Surveys"


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  • 1. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT:Tracking Houston’s Economic and Demogra- phic Changes through 31 Years of Surveys STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG The Houston Association of Realtors: H-TOWN DAY 2012 4 October 2012
  • 2. KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2012) Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, and now with a permanent home in the Kinder Institute for Urban Research, the annual surveys have interviewed 31 successive representative samples of Harris County residents. In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston-area survey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed. The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of …  a restructured economy and  a demographic revolution. These are the same transformations that are refashioning all of American society. The Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.
  • 3. THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMYThe “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which thiscity was so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a newhigh-technology, knowledge-based, fully worldwidemarketplace.The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has nowlargely disappeared. Almost all the well-paid jobs today requirehigh levels of technical skills and educational credentials.In the 2012 survey, 65% of the survey respondents agreed that“There are very few good jobs in today’s economy for peoplewithout a college education.” In 2011, 78% disagreed that “Ahigh school education is enough to get a good job.”In this increasingly unequal, hourglass economy, “What youearn,” as the saying goes, “depends on what you’ve learned.”
  • 4. POSITIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN HOUSTON (1982–2012) 100 90 80 71 68 70 66 64 58 57 60PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS 48 50 43 42 45 40 41 36 35 35 30 20 25 10 11 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY
  • 5. NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES AND ACTUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (1982-2012) 100 11.0 Negative ratings of job opportunities 10.5 90 10.1 9.8 Official unemployment rates in Harris County 10.0 86 80 9.5 72 9.0 70 8.6 8.4 8.5 61 61 60 7.8 57 8.0PERCENT GIVING NEGATIVE RATINGS 54 61 7.3 7.5 OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES 53 50 55 6.8 51 7.0 40 6.6 6.5 6.7 34 32 40 41 6.0 30 28 5.5 20 5.0 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.5 10 4.4 4.3 4.0 4.0 0 3.5 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ARE NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.
  • 6. PERCENT DOING BETTER IN LAST FEW YEARS AND EXPECTING TO DO BETTER IN NEXT FEW YEARS 80 70 Will be better off financially three 66 65 or four years down the road. 62 59 58 60 57 57 56 54 49 50 44 47 42 42 40 41PERCENT SAYING BETTER 33 28 27 30 31 31 Personal financial situation has been getting better during the last few years 20 23 20 10 0 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 YEAR OF SURVEY
  • 7. PERCENT WITH PROBLEMS BUYING THE GROCERIES TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES (2002-2012) 50 If R has a child living at home: “How serious a problem has it been for you personally during the past year to buy the groceries you need to feed your family? Has that been a very serious problem, somewhat serious, or not much of a problem for you during the past year?” 40 Percent saying: “somewhat” or “very serious” problem. (r=+.070, p=.000) 32 30 30 28PERCENT HAVING ‘SOME PROBLEM 20 20 20 10 0 2002 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 8. THE NEW IMPORTANCE OF QUALITY OFPLACE CONSIDERATIONSHoustons prospects will now increasingly depend on the abilityof the region to attract and retain the nation’s most skilled andcreative “knowledge workers” and high-tech companies.This will require continued significant improvements in …  the healthfulness of the region’s air and water quality  the excellence of its venues for sports, arts, and culture  its overall physical attractiveness and aesthetic appeal  the enhancement of its green spaces, trees, and bayous  the revitalization and preservation of its urban centers  the region’s mobility through its transportation systems  the richness of its hiking, boating, and birding areasThe public’s support for new initiatives along these lines hasremained firm or grown stronger across the years of surveys.
  • 9. RESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES (2008-2012) 100 "If you could choose where to live in the Houston area, which would you prefer? " 90 A single-family home with big yard, where you would need to drive almost everywhere you want to go? A smaller home in a more urbanized area, within walking distance of shops and workplaces? 80 Dont know/Cant say. 70 (correlation with year: r=+.109, p=.000) 59 58 60 51 50 47 39PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 40 36 30 20 10 5 3 2 0 2008 2010 2012
  • 10. THE INTEREST AMONG ANGLOS IN SOMEDAY MOVING FROM SUBURBS TO CITY AND FROM CITY TO SUBURBS (1999-2012) 65 If lives in SUBURBS: very or somewhat interested in someday moving to the city. 60PERCENT SAYING VERY OR SOMEWHAT INTERESTED’ If lives in CITY: very or somewhat interested in someday moving to the suburbs. 55 52 50 48 47 45 r= -.092, p=.000 44 40 39 40 37 34 35 33 31 31 29 29 30 33 28 26 26 28 29 25 27 22 27 20 20 22 r= +.038, p=.009 15 10 [Anglo respondents only.] 5 1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YEAR OF SURVEY
  • 11. THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y.C., and closely following Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago, Houston is at the forefront of the new diversity that is rapidly refashioning the socio-political landscape of urban America. Throughout all of its history … • this was essentially a bi-racial Southern city, • dominated and controlled, in an automatic, taken- for-granted way, by white men. Today … • Houston is the most culturally diverse metropolitan area in the country, and • all of its ethnic communities are now minorities.
  • 12. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (U.S. CENSUS, 1960-2010) 4.5 Asians/Others 7.7% 4.0 Hispanics 3.5 6.3% Blacks 3.0 Anglos 4.1% 40.8% 2.5 2.1% 22.7% 32.9% 15.5% 2.0POPULATION, IN MILLIONS 0.8% 19.1% 18.3% 9.9% 19.7% 18.4% 1.5 0.3% 20.1% 6.0% 1.0 19.8% 54.0% 42.5% 33.0% 0.5 73.9% 69.2% 62.7% 0.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 (1,243,258) (1,741,912) (2,409,547) (2,818,199) (3,400,578) (4,092,459) SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.
  • 13. THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN THE FOUR LARGEST SURROUNDING COUNTIES (2000-2010) 700,000 Asians/Others 600,000 19.0% Hispanics Blacks 500,000 Anglos 4.0% 400,000 23.7% 20.8% 13.1% 4.1% 7.3% 300,000 2.5% 4.8% 21.1% 21.1% 12.6% 3.7% 3.5% 27.7% 3.4% 22.4% 18.0% 22.8% 200,000 11.8% 19.6% 71.2% 13.5% 15.3% 8.3%POPULATION 81.4% 53.2% 100,000 36.2% 63.1% 59.3% 65.4% 46.2% 0 Fort Bend-2000 Fort Bend-2010 Montgomery-2000 Montgomery-2010 Galveston-2000 Galveston-2010 Brazoria-2000 Brazoria-2010 (354,452) (585,375) (293,768) (455,746) (250,158) (291,309) (241,767) (313,166) SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.
  • 14. INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE The other demographic revolution: the remarkable “aging,” or “graying,” of the American population. Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, and so are the 76million Baby Boomers, now aged 47 to 65. During the next 30 years, the numbers of Americans over the age of 65 will double. The younger generations are disproportionately non-Anglo and generally far less privileged, in terms of their levels of income, education, health status, and life chances. Nowhere is this ongoing transformation more clearly seen than in the age distributions of Harris County’s population.
  • 15. ETHNICITY BY AGE IN HARRIS COUNTY (U.S. CENSUS, 2010) 70 Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians/Others 60 57 51 50 47 46 43 40 31 30PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 27 28 24 19 19 18 19 19 20 17 10 7 8 7 7 6 0 AGES 65-90+ AGES 47-64 AGES 30-46 AGES 18-29 AGES 0-17 SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.
  • 16. ASSESSMENTS OF ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992-2012) 65 Percent rating "the relations among ethnic groups in 60 the Houston area" as either "excellent" or "good." 54 53 55 Anglos r= +.186, p=.000 51 Blacks r= +.133, p=.000 Anglos 50 48 48 Latinos r= +.096, p=.000 49 45 41 40 40 39 35PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS 35 Latinos 38 30 33 33 27 Blacks 25 27 20 21 15 14 10 5 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YEAR OF SURVEY
  • 17. SUPPORT FOR “ILLEGAL” IMMIGRANTS (2008-2012)120 The influx of undocumented Favor: "Granting illegal immigrants in the Favor: "Allowing the110 immigrants is not a "very U.S. a path to legal citizenship, if they speak children of undocu- serious" problem for the city. English and have no criminal record." mented immigrants to become U.S. citizens, if100 graduated from college (r=.045, p=.001) (r=.028, p=.008) or served in military."90 83 8280 74 7170 66 66 63 6460 5150 4340302010 0 2008 2010 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2012
  • 18. INTERETHNIC ROMANTIC RELATIONSHIPS BY AGE, ANGLOS ONLY (2007 AND 2011, COMBINED) 100 “Have you ever been in a romantic 90 relationship with someone who was not 87 Anglo?” (Anglo respondents only.) 80 No Yes 72 70 60 60 57 58 49 50 50 42PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS 40 39 40 30 28 20 13 10 0 AGES 18-29 AGES 30-39 AGES 40-49 AGES 50-59 AGES 60-69 AGES 70-93
  • 19. ETHNIC ATTITUDES BY AGE AMONG ANGLOS (2006-2011, COMBINED) 100 90 Ages 18-29 Ages 30-44 Ages 45-59 Ages 60-93 80 73 70 70 66 66PERCENT AGREEING IN EACH AGE-GROUP 62 60 59 60 53 53 53 50 47 46 45 40 36 35 36 30 20 10 0 Houstons increasing diversity The increasing immigration The influx of undocumented Favor: Granting illegal will eventually become a into this country today mostly immigrants is NOT a very immigrants a path to legal source of great strength for strengthens American culture. serious problem for Houston. citizenship, if speak English the city. and no criminal record.
  • 20. THE NEW PRO-GROWTH AGENDA To prosper in the high-technology, knowledge-based, worldwide economy, this city (and nation) will need to nurture a far more educated workforce and fashion policies to reduce the growing inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass. To attract the most innovative companies and talented individuals, Houston will need to grow into a more environmentally and aes- thetically appealing urban destination, and develop the research centers that will fuel the engines of growth in the new economy. If this region is to flourish in the years ahead, it will need to develop into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, in which equality of opportunity is truly made available to all citizens and all of its communities are empowered to participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.
  • 21. CONTACT US FOR MOREINFORMATION:THE KINDER INSTITUTE FOR URBANRESEARCH AT RICE UNIVERSITYPROFESSORS STEPHEN KLINEBERG AND MICHAEL EMERSON,CO-DIRECTORSwww.kinder.rice.edukinder@rice.edu713-348-4132