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Catherine Mosbacher with the Center for Houston's Future
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Catherine Mosbacher with the Center for Houston's Future

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Catherine Mosbacher with the Center for Houston's Future presents two very different Scenarios for the future of H-Town. This is her powerpoint presentation. The videos on the two scenarios are …

Catherine Mosbacher with the Center for Houston's Future presents two very different Scenarios for the future of H-Town. This is her powerpoint presentation. The videos on the two scenarios are separated out for you to view individually.

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  • <instructions for using the audience response system> Initial voting. <elicit a few responses from the crowd before moving on to the next question>
  • <brief exchange – who had the top performing answer? Why? Who had something different?>
  • <brief exchange – who had the top performing answer? Why? Who had something different?>
  • <brief exchange – who had the top performing answer? Why? Who had something different?>
  • Transcript

    • 1. The Center works to solve our region’s toughest problems by engaging diverse leaders, providing impactful research, and defining actionable strategies.
    • 2. During the last three years, we’ve been conducting the largest publicinterest, businessled, regional Scenarios project in the country. Scenarios 2040 presents two distinct stories of our future.
    • 3. What is a Scenario? A Scenario is a story about a plausible future. A Scenario is not a forecast or a vision. One is not good and the other bad. The Center is not advocating for one scenario or the other.
    • 4. Why Scenarios? Scenarios enlarge your lens. They challenge your current assumptions. They encourage you to look at the uncertainties. They provide a different context for decision-making that includes global, national and local forces.
    • 5. Why Scenarios? Scenarios encourage innovation. They don’t answer questions, they help you know what questions to ask. Scenarios illuminate a complex and uncertain world. They help force decisions based on values, not merely what you know.
    • 6. Learning To Live
    • 7. Playing To Win
    • 8. Comparison of basic assumptions Assumptions Learning to Live Playing to Win Size of Population 7 Million 12 Million Diversity of Population Diverse and holding Diverse and rapidly growing Community Aspiration Sustainability and quality of life Growth and economic development Community Concern Education, environment, mobility Resource scarcity, security, mobility Economic Engine Healthcare, energy, ports and education Healthcare, energy, ports and water desalination Economic Trajectory Long period of stagnation followed by a period of slow growth Short period of stagnation followed by a period of explosive growth Disparity Gap Narrowing Widening Power and Influence Rise of the public sector Rise of the private sector Technological Advances Clean energy, communication technologies, education delivery mechanisms Energy, medical devices, pharmaceuticals, water desalination
    • 9. Question 1: Which of the two scenarios seems most plausible to you? a)Learning to Live (green) b)Playing to Win (blue)
    • 10. Question 2: Which of the following issues do you think will be most impactful in shaping the future or the region? a)Population Growth b)Demographic Changes c)Business Climate d)Quality of Life Issues e)Resource Scarcity
    • 11. Question 3: Which of the following issues do you think will be most impactful in positively shaping the future of the region? a) Globalization b) Growth of the Region’s Logistics/Transportation Sector c) Growth of the Region’s Energy Sector d) Growth of the Healthcare Sector (Research, Services and Clinical Delivery) e) Business Climate & In-Migration of Businesses/Personnel from Other States
    • 12. Question 4: Which of the following issues do you think will be most impactful in negatively shaping the future of the region? a) b) c) d) e) Globalization Population Growth Skilled Labor Deficits Tax Policy Resource Scarcity
    • 13. futurehouston.org