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Gis based method to analyse vulnerability of transportation infrastructure

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Gis based method to analyse vulnerability of transportation infrastructure

Gis based method to analyse vulnerability of transportation infrastructure

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  • 1. Centre for Transport Studies GIS-based method to analyse vulnerability of transportation infrastructure HAO YE D R PA N A G I O T I S A N G E L O U D I S PROFESSOR JOHN POLAK IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 2. Outline  Project Background  Infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis  Current Works and Progress  Future Work Plan IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 3. Project Background Motivation: extreme events due to climate change, e.g. flooding, have caught the attention of insurance market, and there has been insufficient knowledge of potential damage risk due to inadequate capacity of current catastrophe models. Open Access Catastrophe Model (OASIS), funded by European Climate-KIC and insurance sector, aims to develop open source catastrophe models to improve the climate change adaptation of critical infrastructure. These models will be adopted to assess the risk exposure of infrastructure and develop insurance business. Hazard Damage Function Asset Service Financial Module OASIS project work flow chart IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES Insurance Price
  • 4. The Role of CTS in OASIS Vulnerability Model sub-project: explore the impact of climate change to transportation infrastructure networks, and develop models and software tools for predicting the quantitative impacts on the services provided by the networks. Transport Vulnerability Module CTS IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 5. Network Interdependency Transportation network – critical infrastructure supporting the movement of people and goods. It is also the primary conduit for rescue, recovery and reconstruction in disasters (Anna, 2011) Infrastructure network interdependency, picture sourced from Huang et al, 2011 IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 6. Cascading Effect Cascading effect – unforeseen chain action, failure of a part of a system can trigger the failure of successive part due to component interaction Flooding As-planned status of network system IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES Perturbed status
  • 7. Transportation Infrastructure Network Why the prediction of cascading effect for transportation network is more difficult than other networks? • Multiple infrastructures interaction (e.g. roads, airport, seaport, railway, etc.) • Massive network database (e.g. up to thousands of road links for a small area) • Heterogeneity of network (e.g. the important degree of network units) • The complex of traffic flow theory (e.g. the change of driver’s behaviour) • The complex of traffic demand theory (e.g. the change of trip demand) • And anything more ?… IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 8. Our Efforts – Model development Catastrophe model analysis for transport infrastructure? Hazard module + Infrastructure module + Vulnerability module Flooding Rainfall Storm surge Hazard Infrastructure Catastrophe Vulnerability Model Vulnerability Assessment IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 9. Current Work and Progress  Hazard Module • • Explore the application of hydraulic models to generate high-precision raster-based flooding hazard maps at Bogota in Columbia Cooperate with Hydraulic Modelling Team at ICL  Infrastructure Module • • • Develop network representation for road topological infrastructure Develop rules for describing the property of traffic network/units, e.g. capacity of road links, the behaviour of traffic flow Data collection and potential cooperation with Transport Team at Bogota  Vulnerability Module • • • Develop mathematical models to describe the degradation of interdependent failure (e.g. Input-Output Model, or other potential models in future) Work on the development of software for interdependent system design (Asty) GIS extensions for analysing interdependency network (Oasis) IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 10. Hazard Module  Adopt GIS to model temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme weather events e.g. the coverage of flooding  Model input: local weather data, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Hydraulic model model output: inundation depth, water velocity, angle of attack, etc.  Flooding Damage Functions: compute the physical damage based on the relationship between flooding parameters and infrastructure properties An example of hydraulic watershed hazard maps (Data source: SSG-Surfer) IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 11. Infrastructure Module  Transportation network representation • Extracted vector data from Open Street Map (OSM)  Need to be simplified to suite computational demand • Junctions (nodes) and road segments (links) • Other Network simplification rules (e.g. directed road, road turns) A simplified sample of network and Bogota transport network IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 12. Infrastructure Module – OD trip assignment  Distribute Origin-Destination (OD) trip data on simplified road network to implement trip prediction  Proximity assignment approach • be widely used by past studies, but might be potentially adapted OD trip nodes Infrastructure network node A result of OD assignment based on proximity approach IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 13. Transport Model – Link Importance  The capability of road link is potential related to: • Link distance • Link free flow speed • Link capacity and capacity speed (Link capacity/speed relationship)  Identify the importance/reliability of each road link to weight the perturbation: • Travel time • Travel distance  Understand travel behaviour • When traffic decreases in a certain area, it logically will increase in another area, how to identify such relationship? Normal Traffic Flow Perturbed Traffic Flow Congested Traffic Flow Normal Status Perturbed Status IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 14. Vulnerability Module – Input Output Model  Input- Output Infrastructure Model – is capable of studying the interdependency of component interaction • Application of input output model to transport infrastructure failure • Nodes: transportation junction or infrastructure components • Links: dependency among components  Software Implementation (Asty V1.0: developed by Dr Angeloudis Panagiotis) • Graphical software tool (C# based) to display the relationship of component dependency • Static and dynamic modes to simulate component failure • Have potential to model various interacting systems IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 15. Vulnerability Module – Model Results Operability/Failure variation, modelled results from Asty IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 16. OASIS Software Architecture Design OASIS – A GIS-based software platform to design, analysis, model and visualise the cascading effect for interdependent infrastructure network, aimed at decisionmakers, analysts and publics. Desktop GIS (to planners) Transport database Hydraulic Model Open-Street Map Data Input Traffic data Hazard maps Geospatial database Models and Algorithms Transport network ArcGIS/ QGIS OASIS IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES Web GIS (to public)
  • 17. OASIS Implementation  Front-end GIS Visualisation • Open-source based SharpMap.Net (C# based component) • Tile maps (Google, Bing and Open Street), as well as ESRI shape files • Good interaction with many geospatial database, e.g. postgreSQL and Spatialite Front-end GIS visualisation (under development) IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 18. OASIS Implementation  Open-source components based geospatial database • PostgreSQL + PostGIS (geospatial database management system) • PgRouting (routing and path algorithms) • Enable SQL enquire, spatial analysis of network-based database Back-end GIS database support IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 19. Future Work Plan  Literature review and keep open-minded for other research models to implement vulnerability analysis e.g. agent-based model, neural networks model.  Continue to develop software platform by integrating Oasis and Asty, as well as other network analysis modules, in order to enhance current software functions  Explore mathematical models to identify the mechanism of road node/link failure and predict interdependent propagation to adjacent network components.  Explore mathematical rules of network behaviours and the relationship among travel demand, the change of link capacity and inoperability propagation. IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES
  • 20. Thank You! hao.ye@imperial.ac.uk IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON | DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING | CENTRE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES