The Solar Tsunami

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The Solar Tsunami is coming. If you have not been following recent progress, you may be astonished. The price of solar PV cells has fallen 1000-fold since 1977.
(This updates and replaces my older slide-show 'Our Solar Future.")

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The Solar Tsunami

  1. 1. The Solar Tsunami Guy Dauncey, June 2014
  2. 2. More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.
  3. 3. Solar energy travels at the speed of light 1,000 million kilometres an hour
  4. 4. Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds
  5. 5. 359 million years ago The Carboniferous (Solar) Era
  6. 6. Ancient Solar Energy Solar Coal Bye-bye, West VirginiaHello, Global Warming
  7. 7. Ancient Marine Plankton Solar Oil & Gas Hello, Global Warming
  8. 8. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com As we burn this ancient solar energy
  9. 9. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com we release its ancient carbon into the atmosphere.
  10. 10. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
  11. 11. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
  12. 12. Carbon dioxide, like the other greenhouse gases, traps HEAT in the troposphere
  13. 13. After 10,000 years of relative stability at 280 ppm, this is how dramatically CO2 is rising in the atmosphere.
  14. 14. Around parts of Greenland, ocean surface temperatures rose 1.8°-3.6°F between 1990-2011.
  15. 15. The last time the world was 3°C warmer, during the Pliocene, the sea level was up to 25 metres higher. We are currently on track for 4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer
  16. 16. 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres
  17. 17. If all Earth’s polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise 92 metres 70 metres
  18. 18. The ocean is absorbing 26% of the CO2, making it more acidic.
  19. 19. This is impacting all marine life that uses calcium carbonate to build its shells
  20. 20. If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to 31% of Earth’s species will be committed to extinction, having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat
  21. 21. The View from Australia
  22. 22. 2°C of warming, Hansen’s team says, will have consequences that will be “disastrous,” and which will “cause major dislocations for civilization.” 2°C of warming, Hansen’s team says, will have consequences that will be “disastrous,” and which will “cause major dislocations for civilization.”
  23. 23. Which of us is going to raise a hand and say, “Yes, it’s worth it”?
  24. 24. Climate Denial
  25. 25. We need urgently to reduce the level of carbon in the atmosphere, as rapidly as possible.
  26. 26. June 24, 2014
  27. 27. The Age of Firewood The Age of Fossil Fuels The Solar Age
  28. 28. The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the LAUNCH RAMP for the Solar Age 500,000 years Firewood 300 years Fossil Fuels Science Engineering Enlightenment Two billion years Solar Energy
  29. 29. Imagined Solar Home of the Future, 1958
  30. 30. Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2014
  31. 31. Vauban, Freiburg, Germany
  32. 32. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
  33. 33. 1977: $77 1997: $7 2013: $0.7 Price of Solar PV per Watt A thousandfold fall in the price of solar PV since 1977
  34. 34. 100 GW in 2012 Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000 137 GW in 2013
  35. 35. Solar market penetration
  36. 36. Cumulative installed PV will nearly double in the current period 2013-2015
  37. 37. Mass production = falling prices
  38. 38. www.thesolutionsproject.org
  39. 39. California’s 100% Renewable Energy Future % Onshore wind 25 Offshore wind 10 Wave Device 0.5 Geothermal 5 Hydroelectric 4 Tidal turbine 0.5 Res rooftop PV 8 Com/gov roof PV 6 Utility PV 26 Utility CSP 15 100
  40. 40. Mark Jacobson Stanford The Solutions Project
  41. 41. California’s Future Power
  42. 42. The higher the price of electricity, and the sunnier the land, the sooner the Solar Tsunami arrives
  43. 43. Source: Paul Gipe, June 2014
  44. 44. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c BC, 2014: 4 kW PV System $16,000 + tax 4,400 kWh year
  45. 45. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c Average home electricity per year BC home, baseboard heat: 20,000 kWh BC home, gas heated: 11,000 kWh Future, LED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh? 4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh
  46. 46. BC Hydro generation 50,000 GWh a year Zero-carbon (hydro & wind) 95% Potential new wind, river 20,000 GWh Price of run-of-river energy 7-15 cents kWh Price of wind energy 10-12 cents kWh Price of solar PV (2014) 30 cents kWh Export price for surplus power 2-3 cents kWh Why there will never be a Solar Feed-in Tariff in British Columbia
  47. 47. Solar Economics in BC, 2014 4 kW PV system. No feed-in tariff 12 cents kwh, 3% per year increase 3% finance Cost per watt $4 4 kW + tax $16,800 Finance @ 3%$29,300 kWh per year 4,400 25-year savings $21,900 Result -$7,400
  48. 48. The solar economics of British Columbia are among the weakest in the world – so everywhere else is better.
  49. 49. 2012 $5/watt 2012 $2.75/watt
  50. 50. Solar Installation costs, USA vs. Germany Rocky Mountain Institute, 2013
  51. 51. “Our research suggests that as they become cheaper, the overall (solar) costs to consumers are poised to fall to $2.30 (a watt) by 2015 and to $1.60 by 2020.” The disruptive potential of solar power McKinsey, April 2014
  52. 52. Solar Economics in BC, 2020 4 kW PV system. No Feed-in Tariff. 15 cents kwh, 3% per year increase 3% financing Cost per watt $1.60 4 kW + tax $6,720 Finance @ 3% $9,900 kWh per year 4,400 25 year savings $25,600 Profit +$15,800
  53. 53. Solar Economics in BC, 2020
  54. 54. Solar Economics in BC, 2020 4 kW PV system 15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increase Cash down Cost per kW $1,600 4 kW + 5% tax $6,720 kWh per year 4,400 25 year savings $25,600 Profit +$19,000
  55. 55. Solar Economics in Germany, 2020 4 kW PV system 35 cents kwh, 0% per year increase Cash down Cost per kW $1,600 4 kW + 0% tax $6,400 kWh per year 4,400 25 year savings $38,500 25 year profit +$32,000
  56. 56. To date, over 2,500 investors have used the Mosaic platform to provide $8.5 million to finance solar projects in California, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Arizona, receiving 4.5% – 7% and 100% on-time payments.
  57. 57. 20 year loan, assumes 3% annual electricity price inflation.
  58. 58. “Pay for power, not panels. You don’t need thousands to buy a solar power system, you only need a good roof, because solar panel installation is free.”
  59. 59. Currently installs 1 in 3 residential solar systems in the U.S. Also businesses, governments, schools Clients include eBay, Walmart, City of Sacramento, Los Angeles School District
  60. 60. The unresolved solar problem: power storage Elon Musk is Chairman and largest shareholder in SolarCity And CEO of Tesla… and they are collaborating on industrial grade batteries Tesla Battery Traditional Battery
  61. 61. The Solar Tsunami
  62. 62. Natural gas: 5 jobs per $1 million Solar: 14 5 jobs per $1 million Mass Transit: 22 jobs per $1 million
  63. 63. $100 spent on imported oil $70 leaves the country $22 goes to the oil company $3 to the credit card company, $8 to the gas station $100 spent on renewable energy may circulate and be spent 10 times before it leaves the country, creating demand and jobs worth $1,000 in value.
  64. 64. Self-financing Value for future purchasers Reduced transmission losses Resiliency against power outages, earthquakes Creates more jobs per MWh than other kinds of energy Positive climate response when electricity is gas or coal
  65. 65. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
  66. 66. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. And with every passing year, solar technology will improve and fall in price.
  67. 67. By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW will lose up to $1,000 a year
  68. 68. Victoria: Solar Rooftop Potential Everywhere
  69. 69. Vancouver: Solar Rooftop Potential Everywhere
  70. 70. Every commercial roof could look like this, and earn $10,000 a year
  71. 71. 5 million residents = 2 million residences. 1 million x 4 kw = 4,400 gigawatt-hours a year. + Commercial and Utility PV = 7,000 Gwh a year Future demand: 70,000 GWh Solar PV = 10% of BC’s future demand? BC in the Solar Future
  72. 72. Impact of snow’s high albedo on solar PV performance = up to 100% increased yield
  73. 73. 100% increased PV yield due to solar reflection off the snow December 2010 Ann & Gord Baird’s Eco-Sense house, Victoria, BC www.eco-sense.ca
  74. 74. Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany
  75. 75. Kurilpa Bridge, Australia
  76. 76. Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK
  77. 77. Solar railway Paris to Amsterdam 16,000 panels 3.4 kilometres 3,300 MWh a year
  78. 78. Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan
  79. 79. Thin Film Solar PV
  80. 80. Thin film solar
  81. 81. Thin Film: average module efficiencies 13.9% US $0.49 per watt (First Solar) Conventional multi-crystalline PV: $0.43 per watt average conversion efficiency 15% - 19%
  82. 82. Thin-film solar PV combined with solar thermal Sydney, Australia (ARENA)
  83. 83. Thin-film solar PV with a solar thermal duct system. The heat is trapped between the layers and distributed to the home.
  84. 84. Thin film solar combined with solar thermal heating
  85. 85. Four Times Square New York Solar PV architectural cladding, no extra cost Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
  86. 86. Solar Siding
  87. 87. For the same monthly micro-loan repayment as the cost of kerosene, people in rural areas in the developing world can install a 50 watt solar PV system for their lighting needs. www.self.org
  88. 88. Transparent solar windows
  89. 89. Nanosolar PV
  90. 90. Nuclear vs Solar
  91. 91. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c Solar Freakin’ Roadways Could they work? YES Will they cost more than regular PV? YES Is it likely that they will be built? NO But 16 million people have watched the video and 48,000 people donated $2.2 million to the cause
  92. 92. What else is happening?
  93. 93. Solar EV, Norway, 1990
  94. 94. An average EV needs 15 kWh per 100 km 10,000 km requires 1,500 kWh a year 1.5 kW solar produces 1,650 kWh a year
  95. 95. 1.5 kW = $6,000 5% 25 year mortgage = $35 a month 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month 2014………………
  96. 96. 1.5 kW = $2,400 3% 25 year mortgage = $11 a month 10 litres @ $2.00 litre = $200 a month ……….2020
  97. 97. 9% solar charging capacity from the roof
  98. 98. Antro Solo, Hungary
  99. 99. Solar Charging
  100. 100. The V-Tent
  101. 101. Solar Hot Water
  102. 102. Solar hot water on a restaurant in Sweden Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan
  103. 103. Lindau Hospital, Germany Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
  104. 104. Solar hot water on the Best Western Inn, Kelowna www.swisssolartech.com
  105. 105. Evacuated tubes
  106. 106. Globe Solar Energy, Nelson, BC
  107. 107. Flat plate solar thermal $5,000 to $9,000 Energy generated: 1,000 - 1,500 kwh a year Savings @ 0.8 cents kWh = $80 - $120/year
  108. 108. CSIRO China – $220 per system Very competitive environment - 800 different systems Direct water to kitchen, no glycol heat transfer Total installed: 66 million square metres Target for 2015: 115 million homes
  109. 109. Sun Island, Almere, Holland
  110. 110. 520 Solar thermal panels provide water heating to 2700 homes
  111. 111. Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta Year-Round Solar Heating
  112. 112. Energy Centre Community solar heat panels Solar hot water panels
  113. 113. 800 solar hot water panels on the garages 90% of residential space heating (40-50o C) Reduction - 5 tonnes of GHGs per home per year.
  114. 114. No groundwater intrusion, so the heat accumulates over the summer.
  115. 115. SOLAR THERMAL STORAGE
  116. 116. Molten Salt: 7.5 hours after dark
  117. 117. Slab and Earth Heat Storage
  118. 118. Saturated sand
  119. 119. • Heat storage in an underground aquifer
  120. 120. Rostok Heat Sources
  121. 121. 100% solar heated house, Emmental, Switzerland www.jenni.ch
  122. 122. Austria
  123. 123. Collective solar thermal system on a residential building, Germany www.wagner-solar.com
  124. 124. Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero 100% solar district heat Solar thermal storage, biomass cogeneration
  125. 125. Solar Thermal Heat Storage Tank
  126. 126. Solar wall heating Whitehorse, Yukon
  127. 127. Gateway, Surrey Commercial Solar Walls St. Asaph, North Wales
  128. 128. Solar wall heater in Sequim, WA
  129. 129. Concentrating Solar Thermal Energy
  130. 130. Solar Millennium AG The Sun radiates almost 1000 times more energy onto Earth’s deserts than humans use.
  131. 131. Odeillo solar furnace, France. Built 1970 10,000 mirrors, 3000°C
  132. 132. Solana, Arizona 280 MW Solar Thermal + 6 hours storage
  133. 133. 254 sq km Global electricity use 110 sq km European Union www.desertec.org High-voltage DC can transmit electricity up to 3000 km. 90% of the world’s people live within 3000 km of the world’s deserts and arid regions
  134. 134. Solar Valley, Dezhou, China
  135. 135. Started Himin making solar thermal components in 1990 360 internal company standards 6,300 employees 60,000 partners throughout China Combines all production steps Ming Huang
  136. 136. Solar Valley, Dezhou, China Automated assembly line makes 40,000 tubes a day 6 vacuum tube factories 16 km of PV road lighting Solar office and hotel complex Solar university, 2000 students, no fees Solar sports and entertainment complex. Goal: to set a global example of solar 1,500-4,000 visitors a day
  137. 137. www.chinasolarvalley.net
  138. 138. Solar Egg Spa Resort Solar + Geothermal Heat
  139. 139. Sun-Moon Mansion Solar Thermal Year-Round
  140. 140. Utopia Gardens, Solar Valley, China
  141. 141. 504 solar tubes for central heating and cooling save up to 75% of annual energy costs. In summer, solar field powers absorption chillers with electric compression and gas absorption chillers. Excess heat to seasonal storage area, 1,800 bore holes. In winter, space heating from seasonal storage ground source heat pumps, backed up by district heat system.
  142. 142. Himin Solar Valley Solar Shell International Conference Center
  143. 143. 70% solar energy conversion 1994 square meters solar heat collection Solar water heating Building integrated PV lighting Energy-saving glass Ceiling radiation Intelligent sun-shading and building control
  144. 144. 90% less energy than conventional building Solar thermal heating and cooling Aquifuge trans-seasonal energy storage Ground source heat pump.
  145. 145. Believe that it is possible
  146. 146. Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
  147. 147. www.bcsea.org We welcome your membership, to help us continue our work.
  148. 148. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
  149. 149. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c Fall 2014
  150. 150. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
  151. 151. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com
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