Japan’s Energy Crisis
Is a Green Future
Possible?

Presentation by Guy Dauncey,
Guy Dauncey 2013 Vancouver island Universi...
1

What is our
REALITY?
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実在
We’ve come a long way from this….

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To this …

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but…

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Everyone wants to go shopping…

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We’ve also come to this…

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©Smithore Dreamstime.com
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……
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?
If everyone lived like Canadians or Japanese,
we'd need two more Earths
to provide the resources.

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Live Rainforest

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Dead Rainforest
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What went wrong?
How did this…
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Gross
Domestic
Product
国内総生産
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turn into this? …

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Gross
Depletion
of the

Planet
惑星のグロス枯渇
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2
GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
地球規模の気候変動
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Almost all our energy is Solar Energy
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The Sun sends us solar energy
The trees capture the energy
through photosynthesis
and convert it into CARBON

In

Almost a...
When ancient
forests died,
they stored the
carbon
as

COAL
In

Almost all energy is Solar Energy
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When we burn the

COAL
it releases the
ancient carbon
and causes

GLOBAL
WARMING

In

Almost all energy is Solar Energy
Gu...
The Sun also sends solar energy
into the ocean
Almost all energy is Solar Energy
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It is captured by ocean plankton,
who store it as CARBON

Almost all energy is Solar Energy
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When they die,
the ancient carbon
becomes

OIL and GAS

Almost all energy is Solar Energy
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Most of our energy comes from:

COAL, OIL and GAS
Ancient solar energy = ancient carbon

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Oil is also a cause of war and conflict

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They are all FOSSIL FUELS
They all cause Global Warming

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The cars we drive all cause global warming

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Every day, we burn
this ancient carbon energy

12.5 million tonnes of coal
10 million tonnes of oil
7.5 billion cubic mete...
This gives us lots of ……

POWER!

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85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuels
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Earth has a very thin atmosphere
which traps and holds the sun’s heat,
using CO2, methane, & water vapour.
Guy Dauncey 201...
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AsWhen we the fossil fuels…
we burn burn fossil fuels…

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CO2

CO2
CO2

CO2

CO2
CO2

As we burn the fossil fuels…

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CO2

CO2
CO2

CO2

CO2
CO2

100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
As we burn the fo...
As we burn the fossil fuels…

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The carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere
is rising

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Carbon dioxide traps

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Heat warms the air and the oceans

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The Arctic Ice is melting
Seoul, July 2011

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IPCC 2007
+ 2˚C rise

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www.globalwarmingart.com
This

10,000
years future

10,000
years past

is the
Age of Fossil Fuels

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The Sun is rapidly setting
on the Age of Fossil Fuels.

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We are HERE

 Past

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Age of
Fossil
Fuels

Future 
Glaciers are melting
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The Arctic sea ice is melting
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Greenland is melting
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Antarctica is melting
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The last time the world was 3C warmer,
the sea level was 25 metres higher
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25 metres

18 metres

10 metres

2 metres
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92 metres

70 metres

If all polar ice melted
70 metres sea-level rise
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Comparison of Vegetation Zones
Average vs Warmer (21st Century) Climate
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Kyoto, December 23rd 2006
Mount Fuji in Spring
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Mt. Fuji - no snow
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All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level

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Florida 17 feet (5-6 metres) sea level rise
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Hurricane Katrina, August 2005

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New Orleans, August 2005
Torrential
downpours
and floods

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At the current predicted temperature rise,

33%
of the Earth will be affected
by extreme drought by 2100

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Number of days over
100°F / 38°C

60 days a year
120+ days a year

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At the current predicted temperature rise,

Up to 20%

of the world’s economy could be lost
That’s like the Great Depressi...
Wake up! Call the media! Get on TV!
Climate change is destroying our world!
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There’s also a second problem
Peak Oil

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This

10,000
years futur

10,000
years past

is the
Age of Fossil Fuels
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The Sun is rapidly setting
on the Age of Fossil Fuels.

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Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)
CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)

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Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming

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Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves

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All of this must remain in the ground

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Do you sometimes feel
that it’s all getting

out of control?
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So what shall
we do?

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3
JAPAN’S
ENERGY PROBLEM
エネルギー問題

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Coal 21%

Gas 15%

Nuclear 15%

Oil 46%

= 1,000
Terawatt hours
a year
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$$
$$

Natural Gas 15%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

$$

$$

Coal 21%
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97% of all
Japan’s
ene...
USA 75%
France 11%
Britain 10%

Uranium 15%

Coal 21%
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Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%
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Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%
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Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%
Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%
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Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%
Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%
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Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%
Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%
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Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%
Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%
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?

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%
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www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath
www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf

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How serious 切実
is Japan’s
Energy Problem?
1. Very serious
2. I don’t know
3. Not serious
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4
JAPAN’S
ENERGY
SOLUTIONS
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解答
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We need…

A 100% Shift to
Renewable
Energy

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©Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com
We need…

A Green Economy
Harmony
with Nature
True Sustainability

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How much energy does Japan need?

1,000 terawatt hours a year
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1,000 terawatt hours
a year
千テラワット時間今
年
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Where will the green
electricity come from?

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Efficient Appliances

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LED lights
only use
1 to 5 watts

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How much energy can Japan SAVE?

200 to 500 terawatt hours a year
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Solar Power

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Rolf Disch Solar Architecture
Ota Solar City, Japan
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Solar-powered homes
Yoshikawa, near Tokyo
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Les-Mees, France
Solar Stadium, Taiwan
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Dow’s Solar Shingles
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Thin film solar
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Thin film solar production
The Falling Price of Solar PV

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Price of
Solar Cells
1977: $76
1981: $24
1991: $9
2001: $6
2011: $1.25
2013: $0.74
Price of Installed Solar Power

Germany:
$2.50 a watt
US & Canada: $5 a watt
Japan:
$6.50 a watt
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How much SOLAR energy
could Japan produce?

72 to 300 terawatt hours a year
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Solar thermal energy
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Solar Millennium AG
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Earth’s total known fossil energy reserves
are equivalent to 47 days of solar energy
reaching the Earth’s deserts

Solar O...
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How much SOLAR THERMAL energy
could Japan produce?

Unknown
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Geothermal Energy

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Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa
2-12 cents kWh
39 countries could get 100% power
= 17% of the world’s people

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Geothermal power
Nesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland
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How much GEOTHERMAL energy
could Japan produce?

Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita

98 to 500 terawatt hour...
Wind Energy

Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark
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Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan
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Siemens AG
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Wind Power in Japan
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How much WIND energy
could Japan produce?

570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year
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How much HYDRO energy
could Japan produce?

79 - 140 terawatt hours a year
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How much TIDAL energy
could Japan produce?

20-70 terawatt hours a year
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South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok
tidal power plant

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The Cost is Falling
Wind

1990
30

Solar

200

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2013
8-10
30

2020
8 cents kWh
15 cen...
THE RESULT
Japan needs 1,000 TWh a year
Low
High
Efficiency
200
500
Solar
72
300
Geothermal
30
500
Wind
570
5000
Hydro
79
...
5
TRANSPORTATION
輸送
SOLUTIONS
解答

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CO2

CO2
CO2

CO2

CO2
CO2

100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
As we burn theton...
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Copenhagen
36% of all work trips by bike.

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Vancouver, Howe Street
Electric Bicycle

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Moto Electra World Record
Across US in 3 Days
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Electric Motorbike
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Solar electric bicycles in Tokyo

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Electric train, running on
green electricity
= no climate impact

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Public Transit

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Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net
Electric bus, running on green electricity
= no climate impact
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OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
Japan’s Future Electric Bus
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Chevy Volt
1,400 km on one tank of gas

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Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

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Smart Electric – 135 km range
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Mitsubishi MiEV
160 km range

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Toyota RAV4 EV
148 km range

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Tesla Roadster

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393 km range
Top

The KIA Pop: yet to be released
STELLA
Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven University
Family size, 4-seater
Roadworthy, legal in Holland
Weight: 380 kg (1120 kg fo...
Electric cars,
running on green electricity
= no climate impact
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PV for EV
1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
1.5 kW solar PV
$7,500
3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month
Solar Roadways
In US, 3 x total electricity demand
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Honda solar electric car charging
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Electric car fast charging
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Mercedes Biome – made from bioplastic
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Solar Sailor

www.solarsailor.com
9 MW of solar panels
Retractable sails between each cargo bay
Self-unloading cargo bays
Superconducting power link
Modular...
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Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

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Telemeetings = no climate impact
6

BUILDING
SOLUTIONS
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We can live and work in green buildings

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Or this?
This…

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Or this?
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This …

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Or this?
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Heating 加熱
without Fossil Fuels

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Solar Heat + Storage
Austria
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Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating
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Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating
Solar Heating from the Air

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Ground Source Heat
2 million installations in 30 countries
$20,000 to $30,000

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Water Source Heat

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Ice-Source Heat
Richmond Olympic Skating Oval

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Solar Heat
Solar hot water
on a restaurant in
Sweden

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Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/V...
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www.solarbc.ca
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A project of the BCSEA
Lindau Hospital, Germany

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Rizhao, China
Rizhao, China
Population 3 million

99% of city centre households use solar hot water.
60,000 greenhouses, all solar power...
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CSIRO
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Solar Wall Heating

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Welsh Development Agency
Technology Center, St. Asaph, Wales
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Pearl River
Tower
Guangzhou,
China

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Bahrain
World Trade Centre

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Virgo Road, Oakland Hills, San Francisco
Robert Nebolon architect
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Toyko, Japan
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8,000 sq ft zero carbon home designed for
Manchester United soccer player Gary Neville
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ACROS Fukuoka building in Fukuoka, Japan.
35,000 plants, 76 species
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Osaka
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Ogimachi – Shirakawa Farm Village

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Tono Furusato Restored Farm Village
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Madrid, Spain

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Gangnam district, Seoul
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ACROS Fukuoka building
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Fukuoka, Japan
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7
OUR PAST
AND
OUR FUTURE
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We have been developing intelligence
for millions of years

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Our technology
is the expression of our
cumulative 累積の
shared シェアード
intelligence 知性
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Where are
we going?
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We have made our
full evolutionary
journey
over 13.8 billion years
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We have made
our recent
evolutionary journey
over ten million years
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
There will be

a billion years
before the Sun runs out of fuel
and begins to die
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
10 億年

Future

Past

将来

過去
We are here
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Carbon Years…

Cumulative
Intelligence

Firewood
1.5 million years
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Carbon Years
could be the launch-ramp…
Cumulative
Intelligence

Fossil Fuels
200 years
Firewood
1.5 million years
Guy ...
The Carbon Years could be
the launch-ramp for the solar years
True Solar
1 billion years

Cumulative
Intelligence

Fossil ...
THE CLIMATE EMERGENCY
IS VERY REAL
What is stopping us from making
faster progress?
1.
2.
3.
4.

Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関...
8

FINAL
THOUGHTS
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
A Thousand Possibilities
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We need to roll up the past.

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand
We need to sail away from our old, polluting ways
and build a green, sustainable world.

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture....
This is about you, your children,
and your future.

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
決意
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

You have free will
We can make a difference
This is about us, our planet,
and our future.

Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Our Home

Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Japanese Energy Crisis
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A Presentation on Climate Change and Energy Solutions for Japan to Japanese students at Vancouver Island University

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  • Anna Henly/ Veolia Environnement Wildlife Photographer of the Year 2012
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  • Japanese Energy Crisis

    1. 1. Japan’s Energy Crisis Is a Green Future Possible? Presentation by Guy Dauncey, Guy Dauncey 2013 Vancouver island University, August 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    2. 2. 1 What is our REALITY? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 実在
    3. 3. We’ve come a long way from this…. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    4. 4. To this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    5. 5. but… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    6. 6. Everyone wants to go shopping… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    7. 7. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    8. 8. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    9. 9. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    10. 10. We’ve also come to this… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com ©Smithore Dreamstime.com
    11. 11. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    12. 12. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    13. 13. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    14. 14. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    15. 15. …… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com ?
    16. 16. If everyone lived like Canadians or Japanese, we'd need two more Earths to provide the resources. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    17. 17. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    18. 18. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    19. 19. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    20. 20. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    21. 21. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    22. 22. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    23. 23. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    24. 24. Live Rainforest Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Dead Rainforest
    25. 25. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    26. 26. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    27. 27. What went wrong? How did this… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    28. 28. Gross Domestic Product 国内総生産 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    29. 29. turn into this? … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    30. 30. Gross Depletion of the Planet 惑星のグロス枯渇 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    31. 31. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    32. 32. 2 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 地球規模の気候変動 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    33. 33. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    34. 34. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    35. 35. Almost all our energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    36. 36. The Sun sends us solar energy The trees capture the energy through photosynthesis and convert it into CARBON In Almost all energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    37. 37. When ancient forests died, they stored the carbon as COAL In Almost all energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    38. 38. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    39. 39. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    40. 40. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    41. 41. When we burn the COAL it releases the ancient carbon and causes GLOBAL WARMING In Almost all energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    42. 42. The Sun also sends solar energy into the ocean Almost all energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    43. 43. It is captured by ocean plankton, who store it as CARBON Almost all energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    44. 44. When they die, the ancient carbon becomes OIL and GAS Almost all energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    45. 45. Most of our energy comes from: COAL, OIL and GAS Ancient solar energy = ancient carbon Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    46. 46. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    47. 47. Oil is also a cause of war and conflict Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    48. 48. They are all FOSSIL FUELS They all cause Global Warming Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    49. 49. The cars we drive all cause global warming Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    50. 50. Every day, we burn this ancient carbon energy 12.5 million tonnes of coal 10 million tonnes of oil 7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    51. 51. This gives us lots of …… POWER! Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com
    52. 52. 85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuels Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
    53. 53. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    54. 54. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    55. 55. Earth has a very thin atmosphere which traps and holds the sun’s heat, using CO2, methane, & water vapour. Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com
    56. 56. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    57. 57. AsWhen we the fossil fuels… we burn burn fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2013 2010 www.earthfuture.com
    58. 58. CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com
    59. 59. CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute As we burn the fossil fuels… = 1,000 tonnes a second Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com
    60. 60. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com
    61. 61. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    62. 62. The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    63. 63. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    64. 64. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    65. 65. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    66. 66. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    67. 67. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    68. 68. Carbon dioxide traps Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    69. 69. Heat warms the air and the oceans Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    70. 70. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Arctic Ice is melting
    71. 71. Seoul, July 2011 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    72. 72. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    73. 73. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    74. 74. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com IPCC 2007
    75. 75. + 2˚C rise Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.globalwarmingart.com
    76. 76. This 10,000 years future 10,000 years past is the Age of Fossil Fuels Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    77. 77. The Sun is rapidly setting on the Age of Fossil Fuels. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    78. 78. We are HERE  Past Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Age of Fossil Fuels Future 
    79. 79. Glaciers are melting Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    80. 80. The Arctic sea ice is melting Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    81. 81. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    82. 82. Greenland is melting Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    83. 83. Antarctica is melting Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    84. 84. The last time the world was 3C warmer, the sea level was 25 metres higher Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    85. 85. 25 metres 18 metres 10 metres 2 metres Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    86. 86. 92 metres 70 metres If all polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    87. 87. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    88. 88. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    89. 89. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Comparison of Vegetation Zones Average vs Warmer (21st Century) Climate
    90. 90. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    91. 91. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Kyoto, December 23rd 2006
    92. 92. Mount Fuji in Spring Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    93. 93. Mt. Fuji - no snow Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    94. 94. All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    95. 95. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    96. 96. Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com Florida 17 feet (5-6 metres) sea level rise Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    97. 97. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    98. 98. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    99. 99. Hurricane Katrina, August 2005 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    100. 100. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com New Orleans, August 2005
    101. 101. Torrential downpours and floods Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    102. 102. At the current predicted temperature rise, 33% of the Earth will be affected by extreme drought by 2100 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK), 2006 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    103. 103. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    104. 104. Number of days over 100°F / 38°C 60 days a year 120+ days a year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    105. 105. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    106. 106. At the current predicted temperature rise, Up to 20% of the world’s economy could be lost That’s like the Great Depression and both World Wars combined + Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    107. 107. Wake up! Call the media! Get on TV! Climate change is destroying our world! Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
    108. 108. There’s also a second problem Peak Oil Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    109. 109. This 10,000 years futur 10,000 years past is the Age of Fossil Fuels Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    110. 110. The Sun is rapidly setting on the Age of Fossil Fuels. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    111. 111. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    112. 112. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    113. 113. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    114. 114. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    115. 115. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)
    116. 116. CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic) Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    117. 117. Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    118. 118. Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    119. 119. All of this must remain in the ground Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    120. 120. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    121. 121. Do you sometimes feel that it’s all getting out of control? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    122. 122. So what shall we do? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    123. 123. 3 JAPAN’S ENERGY PROBLEM エネルギー問題 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    124. 124. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    125. 125. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    126. 126. Coal 21% Gas 15% Nuclear 15% Oil 46% = 1,000 Terawatt hours a year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    127. 127. $$ $$ Natural Gas 15% Uranium Nuclear 15% $$ $$ Coal 21% Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 97% of all Japan’s energy is imported Oil 46%
    128. 128. USA 75% France 11% Britain 10% Uranium 15% Coal 21% Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Natural Gas 15% Oil 46%
    129. 129. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    130. 130. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    131. 131. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    132. 132. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    133. 133. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    134. 134. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    135. 135. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    136. 136. Uranium Nuclear 15% Coal 21% Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Natural Gas 15% Oil 46%
    137. 137. Uranium Nuclear 15% Coal 21% Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Natural Gas 15% Oil 46%
    138. 138. Uranium Nuclear 15% Coal 21% Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Natural Gas 15% Oil 46%
    139. 139. Uranium Nuclear 15% Coal 21% Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Natural Gas 15% Oil 46%
    140. 140. Uranium Nuclear 15% Coal 21% Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com ? Natural Gas 15% Oil 46%
    141. 141. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath
    142. 142. www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    143. 143. How serious 切実 is Japan’s Energy Problem? 1. Very serious 2. I don’t know 3. Not serious Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    144. 144. 4 JAPAN’S ENERGY SOLUTIONS Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 解答
    145. 145. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    146. 146. We need… A 100% Shift to Renewable Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com ©Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com
    147. 147. We need… A Green Economy Harmony with Nature True Sustainability Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    148. 148. How much energy does Japan need? 1,000 terawatt hours a year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    149. 149. 1,000 terawatt hours a year 千テラワット時間今 年 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    150. 150. Where will the green electricity come from? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    151. 151. Efficient Appliances Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    152. 152. LED lights only use 1 to 5 watts Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com
    153. 153. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    154. 154. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    155. 155. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    156. 156. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    157. 157. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    158. 158. How much energy can Japan SAVE? 200 to 500 terawatt hours a year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    159. 159. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    160. 160. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    161. 161. Solar Power Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture
    162. 162. Ota Solar City, Japan Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    163. 163. Solar-powered homes Yoshikawa, near Tokyo Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    164. 164. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    165. 165. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    166. 166. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Les-Mees, France
    167. 167. Solar Stadium, Taiwan Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    168. 168. Dow’s Solar Shingles Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    169. 169. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Thin film solar
    170. 170. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Thin film solar production
    171. 171. The Falling Price of Solar PV Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    172. 172. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Price of Solar Cells 1977: $76 1981: $24 1991: $9 2001: $6 2011: $1.25 2013: $0.74
    173. 173. Price of Installed Solar Power Germany: $2.50 a watt US & Canada: $5 a watt Japan: $6.50 a watt Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    174. 174. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    175. 175. How much SOLAR energy could Japan produce? 72 to 300 terawatt hours a year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    176. 176. Solar thermal energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Solar Millennium AG
    177. 177. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    178. 178. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    179. 179. Earth’s total known fossil energy reserves are equivalent to 47 days of solar energy reaching the Earth’s deserts Solar One, Nevada, 64 MW Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    180. 180. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    181. 181. How much SOLAR THERMAL energy could Japan produce? Unknown Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    182. 182. Geothermal Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    183. 183. Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa 2-12 cents kWh 39 countries could get 100% power = 17% of the world’s people Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com
    184. 184. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    185. 185. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    186. 186. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    187. 187. Geothermal power Nesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    188. 188. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    189. 189. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    190. 190. How much GEOTHERMAL energy could Japan produce? Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita 98 to 500 terawatt hours a year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    191. 191. Wind Energy Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com
    192. 192. Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    193. 193. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Siemens AG
    194. 194. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    195. 195. Wind Power in Japan Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    196. 196. How much WIND energy could Japan produce? 570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    197. 197. How much HYDRO energy could Japan produce? 79 - 140 terawatt hours a year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    198. 198. How much TIDAL energy could Japan produce? 20-70 terawatt hours a year Guy Dauncey 2013 2011 www.earthfuture.com
    199. 199. South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok tidal power plant Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    200. 200. The Cost is Falling Wind 1990 30 Solar 200 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 2013 8-10 30 2020 8 cents kWh 15 cents kWh
    201. 201. THE RESULT Japan needs 1,000 TWh a year Low High Efficiency 200 500 Solar 72 300 Geothermal 30 500 Wind 570 5000 Hydro 79 140 Tidal 20 70 TOTAL 971 6510 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    202. 202. 5 TRANSPORTATION 輸送 SOLUTIONS 解答 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    203. 203. CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute As we burn thetonnes fuels… = 1,000 fossil a second Guy Dauncey 2011 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
    204. 204. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    205. 205. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    206. 206. Copenhagen 36% of all work trips by bike. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    207. 207. Vancouver, Howe Street
    208. 208. Electric Bicycle Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    209. 209. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    210. 210. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    211. 211. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    212. 212. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    213. 213. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    214. 214. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Moto Electra World Record Across US in 3 Days
    215. 215. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric Motorbike
    216. 216. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    217. 217. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    218. 218. Solar electric bicycles in Tokyo Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    219. 219. Electric train, running on green electricity = no climate impact Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    220. 220. Public Transit Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    221. 221. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net
    222. 222. Electric bus, running on green electricity = no climate impact Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    223. 223. OLEV On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
    224. 224. Japan’s Future Electric Bus Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    225. 225. Chevy Volt 1,400 km on one tank of gas Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    226. 226. Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    227. 227. Smart Electric – 135 km range Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    228. 228. Mitsubishi MiEV 160 km range Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    229. 229. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    230. 230. Toyota RAV4 EV 148 km range Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    231. 231. Tesla Roadster Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 393 km range
    232. 232. Top The KIA Pop: yet to be released
    233. 233. STELLA
    234. 234. Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven University Family size, 4-seater Roadworthy, legal in Holland Weight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV) Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshine Solar PV cost $4,000 10 months a year it produces more energy than it uses Excess power back into the grid
    235. 235. Electric cars, running on green electricity = no climate impact Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    236. 236. PV for EV 1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km 10,000 km = 1,500 kWh
    237. 237. 1.5 kW solar PV $7,500 3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month
    238. 238. Solar Roadways In US, 3 x total electricity demand www.solarroadways.com
    239. 239. Honda solar electric car charging Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    240. 240. Electric car fast charging Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    241. 241. Mercedes Biome – made from bioplastic Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    242. 242. Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com
    243. 243. 9 MW of solar panels Retractable sails between each cargo bay Self-unloading cargo bays Superconducting power link Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cells Sleek, low wind resistance design
    244. 244. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    245. 245. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    246. 246. Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    247. 247. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Telemeetings = no climate impact
    248. 248. 6 BUILDING SOLUTIONS Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    249. 249. We can live and work in green buildings Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    250. 250. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Or this?
    251. 251. This… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    252. 252. Or this? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    253. 253. This … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    254. 254. Or this? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    255. 255. Heating 加熱 without Fossil Fuels Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    256. 256. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Solar Heat + Storage Austria
    257. 257. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating
    258. 258. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating
    259. 259. Solar Heating from the Air Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    260. 260. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    261. 261. Ground Source Heat 2 million installations in 30 countries $20,000 to $30,000 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    262. 262. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    263. 263. Water Source Heat Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    264. 264. Ice-Source Heat Richmond Olympic Skating Oval Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    265. 265. Solar Heat Solar hot water on a restaurant in Sweden Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan
    266. 266. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    267. 267. www.solarbc.ca Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A project of the BCSEA
    268. 268. Lindau Hospital, Germany Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com
    269. 269. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Rizhao, China
    270. 270. Rizhao, China Population 3 million 99% of city centre households use solar hot water. 60,000 greenhouses, all solar powered. Whole city plans to become carbon neutral. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    271. 271. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com CSIRO
    272. 272. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    273. 273. Solar Wall Heating Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    274. 274. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    275. 275. Welsh Development Agency Technology Center, St. Asaph, Wales Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    276. 276. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    277. 277. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    278. 278. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    279. 279. Pearl River Tower Guangzhou, China Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    280. 280. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    281. 281. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    282. 282. Bahrain World Trade Centre Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    283. 283. Virgo Road, Oakland Hills, San Francisco Robert Nebolon architect Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    284. 284. Toyko, Japan Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    285. 285. 8,000 sq ft zero carbon home designed for Manchester United soccer player Gary Neville Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    286. 286. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    287. 287. ACROS Fukuoka building in Fukuoka, Japan. 35,000 plants, 76 species Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    288. 288. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    289. 289. Osaka Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    290. 290. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    291. 291. Ogimachi – Shirakawa Farm Village Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    292. 292. Tono Furusato Restored Farm Village Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    293. 293. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    294. 294. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    295. 295. Madrid, Spain Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    296. 296. Gangnam district, Seoul Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    297. 297. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    298. 298. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    299. 299. ACROS Fukuoka building Guy Dauncey 2013 Fukuoka, Japan www.earthfuture.com
    300. 300. 7 OUR PAST AND OUR FUTURE Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    301. 301. We have been developing intelligence for millions of years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    302. 302. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    303. 303. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    304. 304. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    305. 305. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    306. 306. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    307. 307. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    308. 308. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    309. 309. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    310. 310. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    311. 311. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    312. 312. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    313. 313. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    314. 314. Our technology is the expression of our cumulative 累積の shared シェアード intelligence 知性 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    315. 315. Where are we going? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    316. 316. We have made our full evolutionary journey over 13.8 billion years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    317. 317. We have made our recent evolutionary journey over ten million years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    318. 318. There will be a billion years before the Sun runs out of fuel and begins to die Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    319. 319. A billion years 10 億年 Future Past 将来 過去 We are here Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    320. 320. The Carbon Years… Cumulative Intelligence Firewood 1.5 million years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    321. 321. The Carbon Years could be the launch-ramp… Cumulative Intelligence Fossil Fuels 200 years Firewood 1.5 million years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    322. 322. The Carbon Years could be the launch-ramp for the solar years True Solar 1 billion years Cumulative Intelligence Fossil Solar 200 years Firewood Solar 1.5 million years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    323. 323. THE CLIMATE EMERGENCY IS VERY REAL What is stopping us from making faster progress? 1. 2. 3. 4. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心 Political corruption 政治腐敗 Ignorance 不知 Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership 指導 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    324. 324. 8 FINAL THOUGHTS Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    325. 325. A Thousand Possibilities Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    326. 326. We need to roll up the past. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand
    327. 327. We need to sail away from our old, polluting ways and build a green, sustainable world. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com By Iskren Rumenov Petrov, age 14, from Bulgaria
    328. 328. This is about you, your children, and your future. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    329. 329. 決意 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    330. 330. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    331. 331. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com You have free will We can make a difference
    332. 332. This is about us, our planet, and our future. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    333. 333. Our Home Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    334. 334. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    335. 335. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    336. 336. Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

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