CITY OF THE FUTURE
The View from 2032

Guy Dauncey, Living Future Symposium
Victoria, November 2013
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We’ve come a long way from this….

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To this …

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but…

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We’ve also come to this…

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©Smithore Dreamstime.com
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If everyone lived the way we do,
we'd need another two Earths

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CO2

CO2
CO2

CO2

CO2
CO2

100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
As we burn the fo...
Monday

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OMG!
Daddy, you’re
going to die!!!!

Monday

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25 metres

18 metres

The last time the
global temperature
was 3°C warmer,
the sea-level was
25 metres higher.
10 metres

...
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Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)
CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)

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Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming

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Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves

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All of this must remain in the ground

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"Dreams are extremely important.
You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”
- George Lucas
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"Create your future from your future,
not your past.”
- Werner Erhard
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"Pain pushes until vision pulls."
- Michael Beckwith

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So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?
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Ten Themes

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1: The Return of Nature
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Habitat for Urban Wildlife
Ifat Finkelman Ofer Bilik Architects, Israel
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Animal Wall, Cardiff Bay, Wales
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London Fiel
Duncan Terrace GardensIslington,
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Back to Nature
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Turning THIS…

Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini,
New York

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into THIS.

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Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna
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Musee du Quai Branly, Paris
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Patrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal
Patrick Blanc

Madrid’s vertical
garden is made up of
more than 15,000
plants, from 250
different species.

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Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc
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ACROS building, Fukuoka, Japan
35,000 plants, 76 species
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Flower Tower, Paris, 2004
www.edouardfrancois.com
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United Bank of Switzerland
Basel
Singapore,
Editt Tower
(proposed)

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Singapore,
Editt Tower
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The Gherkin, London

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Before…

Semiahmoo Transit Station
Surrey, BC, Canada
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After…

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www.greenovergrey.com
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Vincent Callebaut
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Vincent Callebaut: Asian Cairns, Sustainable Megaliths for
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Rural Urbanity, Shenzhen, Chi...
Is this your dream home of the future?
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Or this?

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Or this?

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Ten Themes

2: Green, Sustainable Energy
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By 2016, every new home in Britain
must be zero-carbon.
www.zerocarbonhub.org
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Zero Net Energy Housing

By 2020, every new home in California must be
zero net energy - emit no carbon
and give power bac...
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation

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The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings requir...
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings requir...
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings requir...
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings requir...
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings requir...
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings requir...
www.architecture2030.org
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Empire State Building
Sustainability
Retrofit

38%
reduced energy use

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The Passive House

Winter: -10 oC outside, no heat needed inside
Summer: 35 oC outside, only 26 oC inside
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Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com
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Construction costs:
4.3% more per square foot
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Monthly net energy savings
more than the increased mortgage
LED Lighting
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LED Chandeliers

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Greenwatt Way, Slough, UK

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63 kW solar PV, 30 kW Biomass boiler
40 kW air source hea...
BedZED
Sutton, London, UK
Super-efficient,
smart metered
CHP power and hot water
from local tree wastes

Space heat: 88% l...
Energy
 Centre

Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED),

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Sutton, London, UK
Renewable Energy Heat Pumps
Solar-Source
Moisture-Source
Ground-Source
Water-Source
Sewer-Source
Ice-Source
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Solar (air source) Heat Pump

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Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pump
Solar Air Moisture Heat Pump

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The Octopus Ice-Stick
www.octopus.tm
50-75% reduced heating costs
Air moisture heat pump
50 years life span
Operates down to -25oC
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Since 1991, in Sweden, Norway, Denmark,
Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland,
Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ir...
Cruxifix
Ice-Stick
Heat Pump

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Ground-Source Solar Heat

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Geothermal Radial Drilling, Austria
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http://geothermic.tracto-technik.com
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Water-Source Solar Heat

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Ice-Source Heat
Richmond Olympic Skating Oval

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Solar Hot Water
on a restaurant in
Sweden

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Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan
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Rizhao, China
www.solarbc.ca
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A project of the BCSEA
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Solar Thermal District Heat

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Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.
800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages

90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
R...
Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
The Energy Centre

Solar hot water
panels
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Sorce: Solvis

Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany

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In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat
from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments
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Pre-insulated pipe used
to heat most homes and
commercial buildings in
Scandinavia.
Insulation allows delivery
of hot wate...
Solar PV

Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

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Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013
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Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials,
Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.en...
Solar PV

7000% increase
since 2000
100,000
GW in
2012

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3 kW PV System
$15,000 in Victoria
$12,000 if bulk 30 houses
$9,000 at IKEA, UK
3,300 kWh year

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Solar Economics in Victoria, BC
(No Feed-in Tariff)
3 kW, 3% financing, 3% pa BC Hydro inflation
2013
Cost per kW
$5,000
C...
The Human Journey
5,000,000
years past

5,000,000
years future

This tiny slither of time is
the Age of Fossil FuelsGuy Da...
If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years

Firewood Solar
500,00...
If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years

Firewood Solar
500,00...
If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years

Renewable Solar
1.75 ...
Ten Themes

3: Sustainable Watersheds
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Restoring urban creeks and streams
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Still Creek, Vancouver.
Chum Salmon restored after 80 years

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Home Water Conservation:
Dual Flush Toilets

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Composting Toilets

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Rainwater
Storage

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Bioswale to capture rainwater
SEA Street, Seattle

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SEA Street, Seattle

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Water Conservation Credits in 2032
1. Builder seeks building permit for new house
2. Water conserving actions in existing ...
Ten Themes

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4: Reclaimed Streets
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Re-imagine
Re-design
Re-claim
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‘What a Thrill’ Street, San Antonio, Texas
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In 2012, San Antonio’s City Center Development Office
contracted Team Better Block of Dallas with the Project for
Public S...
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Team Better Block
San Antonio, Texas
www.betterblock.org

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Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, Colombia
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Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea

Before and After
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Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea
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The Highline
Converted Railway,
New York
Proposed Drexel City Campus, New York,
with the Highline running through it

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Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux
Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio
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London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames
Thomas Heatherwick

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Rua Gonçalo de Carvalho, Porto Allegro, Brazil

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Berge de Seine, Paris
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Place de la Republique, Paris, 1850s
Place de la Republique, 2006
stephanekirkland.com

Place de la Republique, 2013
Ten Themes

5: Thriving Neighborhoods

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Portland, Oregon

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www.CityRepair.org
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EarthSong Eco-Neigbourhood, Auckland, New Zealand

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Pioneer Valley Cohousing, Massachusetts

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Jamestown Mall, St. Louis County, Missouri
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Possible Future: Jamestown Mall,
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Namba Parks
Osaka, Japan

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Hundertwasser's Waldspirale, Darmstadt, Germany
Ten Themes

6: Healthy Urban Organic Food
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www.talkgreentous.ca
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Moss Street Market, Victoria
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Fulham Palace Allotment Gardens, London
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Valencia, Spain

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Ten Themes

7: Sustainable Transportation
without Fossil Fuels

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Walking
Graben Street, Vienna
Times Square, New York
Toronto Walking School Bus
Neighbourhood Walkability Audit
www.walklive.org
Cycling

Amsterdam
Amsterdam
Vancouver
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Bike Path in Cambridge, UK
Starpath is a sprayable coating of light-absorbing
particles that harvests UV rays from the sun...
City Bike Sharing, Washington DC
Electric Bicycles

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School at Assen, Holland
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Transit
In Stockholm, 200 buses run on biogas
from sewage treatment (Stephen Salter)
Umea, Sweden
Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km

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OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
Japan’s Future Electric Bus
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Real-time electronic timetable
Bus shelter in Taiwan
LRT in Portland, Oregon
LRT in Mulhouse, France
Proyecto Urbano
Integral,
Medellin, Colombia

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Real-time Ride-sharing

www.car.ma
Car Sharing

Victoria Carshare Coop
650 members share 23 vehicles
See
www.victoriacarshare.ca
Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earn
up to $300 a month
Chevy Volt
2,500 km on one tank of gas

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Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012
Diesel plug-in hybrid
75 km battery range
0.9 litres/100 km
312 mpg
Renault Twizy EV
2 seats, 100 km range,
3.5 hours recharge
$9,700 + $60/month battery lease
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Smart Electric – 135 km range
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Tesla EV Model-X
7 seats
350 kilometers range
Honda solar electric car charging
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PV for EV
1.5 kW solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
= 10,000 km
PV for EV
1.5 kW PV = $7,500
25 year PV loan 3.5% = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month
Electric car fast charging
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www.cargohopper.com

Cargohopper
3 tonnes max
60 km range
20 kph top speed
Urban deliveries
Holland
EVs + Bikes = less urban noise

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No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies

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Ten Themes

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8: A Strong Green
Local Economy
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Community
Economic
Education

Affordable
Housing
Initiatives

1 Benefit Corporations
1
8
8

The
Community
Economy
in 2032
...
1

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Benefit Corporations
2

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Green Business
Certification
3

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Village Business
Networks
4

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Cooperatives
Network
5

Values-Based
Banking
Interest-free banking
Debt Circles
Community currencies
Microfinance
Local business lending
Credit...
6

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Community Welfare
and
Basic Income
7

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Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
7

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Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
7

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Affordable
Housing
Initiatives

LoftCube
7

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Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
8

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Community
Economic
Education
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Ten Themes

9: A Thriving Artistic Culture
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THE ELECTRONIC SIDEWALK
YOUR POEM HERE
wake up your senses
walk with a dog in the rain
then roll on the rug
Kim Pearson
A violin plays
as the common space becomes
a place of beauty.
Jenny Gerbasi
Ten Themes

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10: A Strong Participatory
Democracy
Community engagement
Engaging Young People
www.leadingchangenetwork.com
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Electronic ballots
Voting aged reduced to 16
Transferable Voting for City Hall
$100 tax credit for voting (revenue neutral...
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Design the Future
Community Meetings
The Happy, Resilient City
More walking, biking, bus, carsharing

Lower transport costs

More urban food gardens

Cheaper a...
BUT…
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To reduce the risk
of this …

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We must do this …

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To reduce the risk
of this …

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We must do this …

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To reduce the risk
of this …

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We must do this …

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A Green, Sustainable Future
is not an Option
It is an Absolute Necessity
in which we must all
become engaged
Guy Dauncey 2...
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City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
City of the Future: The View from 2032
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City of the Future: The View from 2032

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A look ahead to the year 2032 in a green, sustainable world. Presentation to the Living Future Symposium, Victoria BC. Nov 9th, 2013, organized by the Cascadia Vancouver Island Branch and UVic Office of Campus Planning and Sustainability.

This is not the presentation based on my forthcoming book; but it is very influenced by it.

Published in: Design, Technology, Business
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City of the Future: The View from 2032

  1. 1. CITY OF THE FUTURE The View from 2032 Guy Dauncey, Living Future Symposium Victoria, November 2013
  2. 2. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  3. 3. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  4. 4. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  5. 5. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  6. 6. Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
  7. 7. We’ve come a long way from this…. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  8. 8. To this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  9. 9. but… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  10. 10. We’ve also come to this… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com ©Smithore Dreamstime.com
  11. 11. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  13. 13. If everyone lived the way we do, we'd need another two Earths Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  14. 14. CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute As we burn the fossil fuels… = 1,000 tonnes a second Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com
  15. 15. Monday Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  16. 16. OMG! Daddy, you’re going to die!!!! Monday Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  25. 25. 25 metres 18 metres The last time the global temperature was 3°C warmer, the sea-level was 25 metres higher. 10 metres 2 metres Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  26. 26. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)
  27. 27. CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic) Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  28. 28. Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  29. 29. Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  30. 30. All of this must remain in the ground Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  31. 31. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  32. 32. "Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.” - George Lucas Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  33. 33. "Create your future from your future, not your past.” - Werner Erhard Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  34. 34. "Pain pushes until vision pulls." - Michael Beckwith Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  35. 35. So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  36. 36. Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
  37. 37. Ten Themes Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 1: The Return of Nature
  38. 38. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  40. 40. Habitat for Urban Wildlife Ifat Finkelman Ofer Bilik Architects, Israel
  41. 41. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  43. 43. Animal Wall, Cardiff Bay, Wales Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  44. 44. London Fiel Duncan Terrace GardensIslington, Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  45. 45. Back to Nature Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  46. 46. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  48. 48. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  49. 49. Turning THIS… Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini, New York Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com
  50. 50. into THIS. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com
  51. 51. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna
  52. 52. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  53. 53. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  54. 54. Musee du Quai Branly, Paris Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Patrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal
  55. 55. Patrick Blanc Madrid’s vertical garden is made up of more than 15,000 plants, from 250 different species. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  56. 56. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc
  57. 57. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com ACROS building, Fukuoka, Japan 35,000 plants, 76 species
  58. 58. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Flower Tower, Paris, 2004 www.edouardfrancois.com
  59. 59. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  60. 60. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com United Bank of Switzerland Basel
  61. 61. Singapore, Editt Tower (proposed) Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  62. 62. Singapore, Editt Tower Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  63. 63. The Gherkin, London Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  64. 64. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  65. 65. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  66. 66. Before… Semiahmoo Transit Station Surrey, BC, Canada Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  67. 67. After… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.greenovergrey.com
  68. 68. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  69. 69. Vincent Callebaut Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  70. 70. Vincent Callebaut: Asian Cairns, Sustainable Megaliths for Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 Rural Urbanity, Shenzhen, China, 2013 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com
  71. 71. Is this your dream home of the future? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  72. 72. Or this? Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com
  73. 73. Or this? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  74. 74. Ten Themes 2: Green, Sustainable Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  75. 75. By 2016, every new home in Britain must be zero-carbon. www.zerocarbonhub.org Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  76. 76. Zero Net Energy Housing By 2020, every new home in California must be zero net energy - emit no carbon and give power back to the grid. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  77. 77. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  78. 78. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  79. 79. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled 1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  80. 80. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled 1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000 2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco) Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  81. 81. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled 1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000 2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco) 3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  82. 82. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled 1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000 2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco) 3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades 4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  83. 83. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled 1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000 2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco) 3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades 4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers 5. Green building grants, education and technical services Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  84. 84. www.architecture2030.org Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  85. 85. Empire State Building Sustainability Retrofit 38% reduced energy use Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  86. 86. The Passive House Winter: -10 oC outside, no heat needed inside Summer: 35 oC outside, only 26 oC inside Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  87. 87. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com
  88. 88. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Construction costs: 4.3% more per square foot
  89. 89. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Monthly net energy savings more than the increased mortgage
  90. 90. LED Lighting Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  91. 91. LED Chandeliers Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  92. 92. Greenwatt Way, Slough, UK Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 63 kW solar PV, 30 kW Biomass boiler 40 kW air source heat pump 2 x 17 kW Ground source heat pumps Energy Centre roof 20 m2 solar thermal panels
  93. 93. BedZED Sutton, London, UK Super-efficient, smart metered CHP power and hot water from local tree wastes Space heat: 88% less Hot water: 57% less Electricity: 25% less Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  94. 94. Energy  Centre Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED), Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Sutton, London, UK
  95. 95. Renewable Energy Heat Pumps Solar-Source Moisture-Source Ground-Source Water-Source Sewer-Source Ice-Source Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  96. 96. Solar (air source) Heat Pump Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  97. 97. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pump
  98. 98. Solar Air Moisture Heat Pump Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Octopus Ice-Stick www.octopus.tm
  99. 99. 50-75% reduced heating costs Air moisture heat pump 50 years life span Operates down to -25oC Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  100. 100. Since 1991, in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  101. 101. Cruxifix Ice-Stick Heat Pump Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  102. 102. Ground-Source Solar Heat Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  103. 103. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  104. 104. Geothermal Radial Drilling, Austria Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com http://geothermic.tracto-technik.com
  105. 105. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  106. 106. Water-Source Solar Heat Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  107. 107. Ice-Source Heat Richmond Olympic Skating Oval Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  108. 108. Solar Hot Water on a restaurant in Sweden Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan
  109. 109. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Rizhao, China
  110. 110. www.solarbc.ca Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A project of the BCSEA
  111. 111. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  112. 112. Solar Thermal District Heat Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.
  113. 113. 800 solar hot water panels on the garages 90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C) Reduction - 5 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions per home per year. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  114. 114. Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year The Energy Centre Solar hot water panels Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com Community solar heat panels
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  116. 116. Sorce: Solvis Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  117. 117. In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  119. 119. Pre-insulated pipe used to heat most homes and commercial buildings in Scandinavia. Insulation allows delivery of hot water at 200o C up to 24 km, with only a few degrees loss of heat. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  120. 120. Solar PV Rolf Disch Solar Architecture Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  121. 121. Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com
  122. 122. Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
  123. 123. Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials, Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  124. 124. Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000 100,000 GW in 2012 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  125. 125. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  127. 127. 3 kW PV System $15,000 in Victoria $12,000 if bulk 30 houses $9,000 at IKEA, UK 3,300 kWh year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  128. 128. Solar Economics in Victoria, BC (No Feed-in Tariff) 3 kW, 3% financing, 3% pa BC Hydro inflation 2013 Cost per kW $5,000 Cost of 3 kW system $15,000 $25 yr 3% mortgage $21,300 2020 $3,000 $9,000 $12,780 kWh per year 25 years + 3% pa 3,300 kWh $12,009 3,300 kWh $14,768 Profit (Loss) (-$9,291) $1,988 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  129. 129. The Human Journey 5,000,000 years past 5,000,000 years future This tiny slither of time is the Age of Fossil FuelsGuy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
  130. 130. If we act as we should, we will make the 200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for a billion Solar Years Firewood Solar 500,000 years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  131. 131. If we act as we should, we will make the 200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for a billion Solar Years Firewood Solar 500,000 years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Fossil Solar 200 years
  132. 132. If we act as we should, we will make the 200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for a billion Solar Years Renewable Solar 1.75 billion years Firewood Solar 500,000 years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Fossil Solar 200 years
  133. 133. Ten Themes 3: Sustainable Watersheds Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  134. 134. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  136. 136. Restoring urban creeks and streams Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  137. 137. Still Creek, Vancouver. Chum Salmon restored after 80 years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  138. 138. Home Water Conservation: Dual Flush Toilets Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  139. 139. Composting Toilets Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  140. 140. Rainwater Storage Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  141. 141. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  143. 143. Bioswale to capture rainwater SEA Street, Seattle Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  144. 144. SEA Street, Seattle Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  145. 145. Water Conservation Credits in 2032 1. Builder seeks building permit for new house 2. Water conserving actions in existing houses earn conservation credits 3. Water conserving companies retrofit existing houses, collect credits. 4. Builder buys credits to qualify for building permit 5. Net increase in water-use = ZERO Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  146. 146. Ten Themes Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 4: Reclaimed Streets
  147. 147. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Re-imagine Re-design Re-claim
  148. 148. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  152. 152. ‘What a Thrill’ Street, San Antonio, Texas Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  153. 153. In 2012, San Antonio’s City Center Development Office contracted Team Better Block of Dallas with the Project for Public Spaces in New York City to develop a site plan that narrowed a segment of West Commerce Street from 4 lanes to 3 to create a more inviting pedestrian experience. Guy Dauncey 2013 Just for one day… www.earthfuture.com
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  158. 158. Team Better Block San Antonio, Texas www.betterblock.org Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  159. 159. Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, Colombia Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  160. 160. Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea Before and After Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  161. 161. Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  162. 162. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  163. 163. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Highline Converted Railway, New York
  164. 164. Proposed Drexel City Campus, New York, with the Highline running through it Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  165. 165. Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
  166. 166. London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames Thomas Heatherwick Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  167. 167. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  168. 168. Rua Gonçalo de Carvalho, Porto Allegro, Brazil Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  170. 170. Berge de Seine, Paris Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  177. 177. Place de la Republique, Paris, 1850s
  178. 178. Place de la Republique, 2006
  179. 179. stephanekirkland.com Place de la Republique, 2013
  180. 180. Ten Themes 5: Thriving Neighborhoods Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  181. 181. Portland, Oregon Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com www.CityRepair.org
  182. 182. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  185. 185. EarthSong Eco-Neigbourhood, Auckland, New Zealand Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  186. 186. Pioneer Valley Cohousing, Massachusetts Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  187. 187. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  188. 188. Jamestown Mall, St. Louis County, Missouri Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  189. 189. Possible Future: Jamestown Mall, Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  190. 190. Namba Parks Osaka, Japan Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  191. 191. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Hundertwasser's Waldspirale, Darmstadt, Germany
  192. 192. Ten Themes 6: Healthy Urban Organic Food Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  193. 193. www.talkgreentous.ca Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  194. 194. Moss Street Market, Victoria Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  195. 195. Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com
  196. 196. Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com
  197. 197. Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com
  198. 198. Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com
  199. 199. Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com
  200. 200. Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com Fulham Palace Allotment Gardens, London
  201. 201. Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
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  205. 205. Valencia, Spain Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
  206. 206. Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com
  207. 207. Ten Themes 7: Sustainable Transportation without Fossil Fuels Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  208. 208. Walking
  209. 209. Graben Street, Vienna
  210. 210. Times Square, New York
  211. 211. Toronto Walking School Bus
  212. 212. Neighbourhood Walkability Audit www.walklive.org
  213. 213. Cycling Amsterdam
  214. 214. Amsterdam
  215. 215. Vancouver
  216. 216. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  217. 217. Bike Path in Cambridge, UK Starpath is a sprayable coating of light-absorbing particles that harvests UV rays from the sun during the day and lights up like a starry sky at night. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.pro-teqsurfacing.com
  218. 218. City Bike Sharing, Washington DC
  219. 219. Electric Bicycles Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  220. 220. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  223. 223. School at Assen, Holland
  224. 224. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  225. 225. Transit
  226. 226. In Stockholm, 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment (Stephen Salter)
  227. 227. Umea, Sweden Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day 1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km www.opbrid.com
  228. 228. OLEV On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
  229. 229. Japan’s Future Electric Bus Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  230. 230. Real-time electronic timetable
  231. 231. Bus shelter in Taiwan
  232. 232. LRT in Portland, Oregon
  233. 233. LRT in Mulhouse, France
  234. 234. Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, Colombia Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  235. 235. Real-time Ride-sharing www.car.ma
  236. 236. Car Sharing Victoria Carshare Coop 650 members share 23 vehicles See www.victoriacarshare.ca
  237. 237. Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing Vehicles owners earn up to $300 a month
  238. 238. Chevy Volt 2,500 km on one tank of gas Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  239. 239. Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012 Diesel plug-in hybrid 75 km battery range 0.9 litres/100 km 312 mpg
  240. 240. Renault Twizy EV 2 seats, 100 km range, 3.5 hours recharge $9,700 + $60/month battery lease
  241. 241. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  242. 242. Smart Electric – 135 km range Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  243. 243. Tesla EV Model-X 7 seats 350 kilometers range
  244. 244. Honda solar electric car charging Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  245. 245. PV for EV 1.5 kW solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year = 10,000 km
  246. 246. PV for EV 1.5 kW PV = $7,500 25 year PV loan 3.5% = $37/month Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month
  247. 247. Electric car fast charging Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  248. 248. www.cargohopper.com Cargohopper 3 tonnes max 60 km range 20 kph top speed Urban deliveries Holland
  249. 249. EVs + Bikes = less urban noise Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  250. 250. No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  251. 251. Ten Themes Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 8: A Strong Green Local Economy
  252. 252. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  256. 256. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  257. 257. Community Economic Education Affordable Housing Initiatives 1 Benefit Corporations 1 8 8 The Community Economy in 2032 7 7 Community Welfare Basic Income 2 2 Green Business Certification 3 3 Village Business Networks 4 Coop Network 4 6 6 5 5 Values-Based Banking
  258. 258. 1 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Benefit Corporations
  259. 259. 2 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Green Business Certification
  260. 260. 3 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Village Business Networks
  261. 261. 4 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Cooperatives Network
  262. 262. 5 Values-Based Banking Interest-free banking Debt Circles Community currencies Microfinance Local business lending Credit Unions Bank of BC Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  263. 263. 6 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Community Welfare and Basic Income
  264. 264. 7 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordable Housing Initiatives
  265. 265. 7 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordable Housing Initiatives
  266. 266. 7 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordable Housing Initiatives LoftCube
  267. 267. 7 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordable Housing Initiatives
  268. 268. 8 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Community Economic Education
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  270. 270. Ten Themes 9: A Thriving Artistic Culture Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  271. 271. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  272. 272. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  273. 273. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  274. 274. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  275. 275. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  276. 276. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  277. 277. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  278. 278. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  279. 279. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  280. 280. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  281. 281. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  282. 282. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  283. 283. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  284. 284. THE ELECTRONIC SIDEWALK YOUR POEM HERE
  285. 285. wake up your senses walk with a dog in the rain then roll on the rug Kim Pearson
  286. 286. A violin plays as the common space becomes a place of beauty. Jenny Gerbasi
  287. 287. Ten Themes Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 10: A Strong Participatory Democracy
  288. 288. Community engagement
  289. 289. Engaging Young People www.leadingchangenetwork.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  290. 290. Electronic ballots Voting aged reduced to 16 Transferable Voting for City Hall $100 tax credit for voting (revenue neutral) Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  291. 291. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Design the Future Community Meetings
  292. 292. The Happy, Resilient City More walking, biking, bus, carsharing Lower transport costs More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community More urban greenery More inner space, and peace Stronger community economy More financial security Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city More civic engagement Healthier political realm Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness More arts, music and neighbourhood celebration More friends, more happiness, more love Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  293. 293. BUT… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  294. 294. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  295. 295. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  296. 296. To reduce the risk of this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  297. 297. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  298. 298. We must do this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  299. 299. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  300. 300. To reduce the risk of this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  301. 301. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  302. 302. We must do this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  303. 303. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  304. 304. To reduce the risk of this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  305. 305. We must do this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  306. 306. A Green, Sustainable Future is not an Option It is an Absolute Necessity in which we must all become engaged Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  307. 307. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  308. 308. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  309. 309. Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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