Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Beyond Oil
Imagining the Future
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Question:
Climate Change:
A: It’s a very serious looming crisis
B: Confused; not sure wha...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Question:
Transportation without Oil:
A: Yes, I believe it’s possible
B: I don’t know if ...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Before Oil…
Remembering the Past
Four million years of walking
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Walking = 4,000,000 years
Vancouver to Kelowna/Kamloops = 400 km
10,000 years = 1 kilomet...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Petrolia, Ontario
1858
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
As we burn the fossil fuels…
Guy Dauncey 2007
www.ea...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
+ 2˚C rise
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The last time the world was 3°C warmer
the sea level was 25 metres higher
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
Tar Sands: 1.2 million barrels a day
The world is co...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Total carbon in the world’s fossil fuel reserves
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
The Teeny-Weeny, Ever-So-Brief
Age of Oil
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
10,000
years past
10,000
years future
The Teeny-Witz...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
10,000
years past
10,000
years future
The Teeny-Witz...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
future
Neolithic Era: 8,000 years
An...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Beyond Oil
Awakening the Future
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
BCSEA 2012
www.bcsea.org
BCSEA vision
is a sustainable
future in which
all of BC’s
energy...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
How Are We Using the Oil?
Cars & light trucks 40%
Heavy trucks 13%
Flying 8%
Shipping 2.5...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
1 5% shift to walking
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Neighbourhood Walkability Audit
www.walklive.org
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
A 5% shift to walking
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
2 15% shift to cycling
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement
is by bicycle
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
 Safe bike lanes and routes
 Good bike parking
 Cycling education in schools
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Vancouver, Howe Street
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
City Bike Sharing
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Electric Bicycles
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
www.emcyclellc.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
A fun cycling culture
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
School at Assen, Holland
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
15% shift to cycling
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
3 v15% shift to
transit and LRT
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Hasselt, Belgium
Free transit, included in city taxes
1996-2006 13-fold increase in rider...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Real-time electronic displays
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Bus shelter in Taiwan
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas
from sewage treatment
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Umea, Sweden
Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electrici...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Japan’s Future Electric Bus
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
15% shift to Transit & LRT
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
LRT in Portland, Oregon
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Electric train
+ green electricity
= no climate impa...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
4 5% shift to Telework
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
5% shift to Telework
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
5 v5% shift to
Ride-Sharing
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Kijiji
Craigslist
Shareyourride.net
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Real-time Ride-sharing
www.car.ma
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guaranteed emergency ride home
Cash-out parking – paid for not using employee
parking s...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
5% shift to Ridesharing
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
See
650 members share 23 vehicles
www.victoriacarshare.ca
6
5% shift to Car Sharing
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Car-sharing forecast
North America 2016:
4.4 million users
David Zhao, automotive researc...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicles owners earn
up to $300 a month
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
5% shift to Car-sharing
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
7
Better Inter-Modal
Connections
Single Smart Card for
transit, LRT, car-share,
ride-sha...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Transport London’s Oyster Card
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Walk Bike
Food Help
Taxi
Skype
ParkRide share
Ski-lift
Maps
Ferry Fly
Car share
LRTTransi...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
Better Inter-Modal
Connections
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
8 Smart Growth
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Jamestown Mall Area Plan, St. Louis County, Missouri
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Metro do Porto, Portugal
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
Smart Growth
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs
80% of average mileage on electric drive
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Chevy Volt
2,500 km on one tank of gas
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012
Diesel plug-in hybrid
795 kg 75km battery range
0.9 litres/...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
50% shift to Hybrid EVs
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
10 v50% shift to
Electric Vehicles
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Low Price: Renault Twizy EV
 2 seats, 100 km range, made in Spain
 80 kph top speed, 3....
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge
Top
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Mid-price: Mitsubishi MiEV
 5 seats
 Top speed 130 kph
 150 km range
 $25,000 after r...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Smart Electric – 135 km range
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Toyota RAV4 EV
148 km range
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Top price: Tesla EV Model-X
 7 seats. Spacious luggage capacity front & rear
 0-90 kph ...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Top
The KIA Pop: yet to be released
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
STELLA
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven University
Family size, 4-seater
Roadworthy, legal in H...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Electric cars,
running on green electricity
= no cli...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Honda solar electric car charging
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Electric car fast charging
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
50% fuel reduction
Mercedes Biome concept car
Ultra-lights
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Average car 2,000 kg
Toyota Prius V 1,485 kg
Evonik Elise EV 950 kg
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
1.5 kW solar PV
$7,500
3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
50% shift to Electric Vehicles
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
100% shift to Beyond Oil
for cars & light trucks
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Integrated Governance
Cycling
Transit
Highways
Rail
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Integrated Cost Analysis
$
Cycling
Transit
Highways
Rail
$
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane
$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane
$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1....
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane
$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1....
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane
$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1....
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
 Carbon Taxes
 Feebates
 Road tolls
 Utility Public
Service Charges
How can we pay fo...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Electronic Road Pricing
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Road-pricing
on the Malahat
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
30,000 vehicles a day
$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day
= 250 luxury coaches
= up to 10,000...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Electric Freight
Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck
 Average 18-wheeler 6.5 m...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Cargohopper
 3 tonnes max
 60 km range
 20 kph top speed
 Urban deliveries
 Holland
...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Freight Solutions - Trucking
 Super-efficient designs save 35%
 Electric plug-in to eli...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Solar Electric
Freight Tube
Vancouver – San Diego
5 hours
1994 US Federal Highway
Adminis...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Shipping Solutions
2.5% of global oil use
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Maltese Falcon: Advanced Square Rigger Sail Design
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
B9 Shipping: 100% renewably powered commercially and
technically viable sailing hybrid ca...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
9 MW of solar panels
Retractable sails between each cargo bay
Self-unloading cargo bays
S...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
 Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50%
 Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25%
 S...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Flying Solutions
8% of global oil use
Latest designs save 20%
But a 20% increased demand ...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraft
Superconducting electric motors
Paris ...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Renewable Electricity
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Renewable Fuel
Biofuel made from…
 Farm and forest wastes
 Sewage and urban organic was...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Renewable Fuel
Will there be enough?
Rocky Mountain Institute:
with 84% fuel-saving poten...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Stronger Local Economies
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
So what’s
The Secret
to make it all happen?
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Community engagement
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Special Discount
$20
Signed copies
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
BCSEA 2012
www.bcsea.org
Together, we can change the world.
To become a BCSEA Member
www....
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
This whole presentation is available on
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
How can we make it happen?
Questions
Discussion
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?
W...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Voyager 1 photo of
Earth from 6 billion
kilometers.
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Universe has taken
13 billion years
to create us
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in the Universe
1024: 1 trillion tri...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of
atoms in your
body:
1027: 1000 trillion
tr...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Every atom in your body was either made in the Big B...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All se...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We are all conscious
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Do you have free will to choose your future?
Or is e...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
You have free will
We can make a difference
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
This is about us, our planet,
and our future.
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Taken together,
our efforts to make a better world
are like drops of dew
that slowly accu...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future

1,341 views

Published on

A Public Lecture by Guy Dauncey, given in Kelowna and Kamloops, Sept 10/11th, 2013

Published in: Technology, Business
3 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,341
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
11
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
13
Comments
3
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Is the Relay Rides $715 a month number excessive?Globe & Mail http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/new-cars/auto-news/the-real-cost-of-car-ownership/article1692912/ says $711 to $906 a month
  • Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future

    1. 1. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Beyond Oil Imagining the Future
    2. 2. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Question: Climate Change: A: It’s a very serious looming crisis B: Confused; not sure what to make of it C: It’s overblown. Earth’s climate has always been variable
    3. 3. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Question: Transportation without Oil: A: Yes, I believe it’s possible B: I don’t know if it’s possible C: No, it’s not possible.
    4. 4. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Before Oil… Remembering the Past Four million years of walking
    5. 5. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Walking = 4,000,000 years Vancouver to Kelowna/Kamloops = 400 km 10,000 years = 1 kilometre The last 100 years = 10 metres
    6. 6. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Petrolia, Ontario 1858
    7. 7. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    8. 8. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    9. 9. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    10. 10. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    11. 11. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    12. 12. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    13. 13. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    14. 14. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    15. 15. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    16. 16. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    17. 17. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    18. 18. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    19. 19. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    20. 20. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    21. 21. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    22. 22. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    23. 23. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    24. 24. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.co CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second
    25. 25. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    26. 26. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    27. 27. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    28. 28. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com + 2˚C rise
    29. 29. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The last time the world was 3°C warmer the sea level was 25 metres higher
    30. 30. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    31. 31. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres
    32. 32. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
    33. 33. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
    34. 34. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
    35. 35. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    36. 36. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    37. 37. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    38. 38. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    39. 39. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    40. 40. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    41. 41. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    42. 42. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005
    43. 43. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    44. 44. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    45. 45. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    46. 46. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    47. 47. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    48. 48. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com Tar Sands: 1.2 million barrels a day The world is consuming 89 million barrels a day
    49. 49. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    50. 50. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    51. 51. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    52. 52. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    53. 53. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    54. 54. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    55. 55. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    56. 56. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Total carbon in the world’s fossil fuel reserves
    57. 57. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    58. 58. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    59. 59. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    60. 60. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    61. 61. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com The Teeny-Weeny, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil
    62. 62. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com 10,000 years past 10,000 years future The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil Neolithic Era: 8,000 years Ancient Egypt: 3,000 years Roman Empire: 1,000 years Islamic Golden Age: 600 years Era of Oil: 100 years
    63. 63. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com 10,000 years past 10,000 years future The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil Neolithic Era: 8,000 years Ancient Egypt: 3,000 years Roman Empire: 1,000 years Islamic Golden Age: 600 years Age of Oil: 100 years What happens here?
    64. 64. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years future Neolithic Era: 8,000 years Ancient Egypt: 3,000 years Roman Empire: 1,000 years Islamic Golden Age: 600 years Age of Oil: 100 years The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for a billion years. That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
    65. 65. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    66. 66. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    67. 67. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Beyond Oil Awakening the Future
    68. 68. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com BCSEA 2012 www.bcsea.org BCSEA vision is a sustainable future in which all of BC’s energy is green and renewable.
    69. 69. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com How Are We Using the Oil? Cars & light trucks 40% Heavy trucks 13% Flying 8% Shipping 2.5% Asphalt 3% Rail freight 1% Recreational 1% Military 1.5% TOTAL TRANSPORT 71% Non-transport uses 29%
    70. 70. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1 5% shift to walking
    71. 71. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    72. 72. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Neighbourhood Walkability Audit www.walklive.org
    73. 73. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    74. 74. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    75. 75. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    76. 76. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    77. 77. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    78. 78. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    79. 79. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus
    80. 80. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE A 5% shift to walking
    81. 81. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
    82. 82. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 2 15% shift to cycling
    83. 83. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle
    84. 84. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com  Safe bike lanes and routes  Good bike parking  Cycling education in schools
    85. 85. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Vancouver, Howe Street
    86. 86. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    87. 87. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    88. 88. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    89. 89. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com City Bike Sharing
    90. 90. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric Bicycles
    91. 91. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    92. 92. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    93. 93. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    94. 94. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    95. 95. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com www.emcyclellc.com
    96. 96. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com A fun cycling culture
    97. 97. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    98. 98. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    99. 99. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com School at Assen, Holland
    100. 100. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    101. 101. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 15% shift to cycling
    102. 102. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% …
    103. 103. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 3 v15% shift to transit and LRT
    104. 104. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Hasselt, Belgium Free transit, included in city taxes 1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership
    105. 105. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Real-time electronic displays
    106. 106. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Bus shelter in Taiwan
    107. 107. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment
    108. 108. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Umea, Sweden Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day 1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km www.opbrid.com
    109. 109. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com OLEV On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
    110. 110. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    111. 111. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Japan’s Future Electric Bus
    112. 112. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 15% shift to Transit & LRT
    113. 113. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com LRT in Portland, Oregon
    114. 114. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    115. 115. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric train + green electricity = no climate impact
    116. 116. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …
    117. 117. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 4 5% shift to Telework
    118. 118. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    119. 119. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    120. 120. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems
    121. 121. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 5% shift to Telework
    122. 122. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% … 5% shift to telework = 60% …
    123. 123. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 5 v5% shift to Ride-Sharing
    124. 124. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Kijiji Craigslist Shareyourride.net
    125. 125. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    126. 126. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Real-time Ride-sharing www.car.ma
    127. 127. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guaranteed emergency ride home Cash-out parking – paid for not using employee parking space Rideshare Plus Rewards Book
    128. 128. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 5% shift to Ridesharing
    129. 129. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% … 5% shift to telework = 60% … 5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …
    130. 130. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com See 650 members share 23 vehicles www.victoriacarshare.ca 6 5% shift to Car Sharing
    131. 131. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Car-sharing forecast North America 2016: 4.4 million users David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan,
    132. 132. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing Vehicles owners earn up to $300 a month
    133. 133. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    134. 134. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    135. 135. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 5% shift to Car-sharing
    136. 136. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% … 5% shift to telework = 60% … 5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% … 5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …
    137. 137. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 7 Better Inter-Modal Connections Single Smart Card for transit, LRT, car-share, ride-share, ferries, rail Good transit-ferry connections Good bike-parking at every transit station
    138. 138. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Transport London’s Oyster Card
    139. 139. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Walk Bike Food Help Taxi Skype ParkRide share Ski-lift Maps Ferry Fly Car share LRTTransit Rail
    140. 140. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE Better Inter-Modal Connections
    141. 141. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 8 Smart Growth
    142. 142. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    143. 143. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    144. 144. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    145. 145. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Jamestown Mall Area Plan, St. Louis County, Missouri
    146. 146. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Metro do Porto, Portugal
    147. 147. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE Smart Growth
    148. 148. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs 80% of average mileage on electric drive
    149. 149. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Chevy Volt 2,500 km on one tank of gas
    150. 150. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012 Diesel plug-in hybrid 795 kg 75km battery range 0.9 litres/100 km (260 mpg US)
    151. 151. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 50% shift to Hybrid EVs
    152. 152. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% … 5% shift to telework = 60% … 5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% … 5% shift to car-sharing = 50% … 50% of vehicles hybrid electric = 30% 80% of mileage electric
    153. 153. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 10 v50% shift to Electric Vehicles
    154. 154. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    155. 155. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Low Price: Renault Twizy EV  2 seats, 100 km range, made in Spain  80 kph top speed, 3.5 hours recharge  $9,700 + $60/month battery lease
    156. 156. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge Top
    157. 157. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Mid-price: Mitsubishi MiEV  5 seats  Top speed 130 kph  150 km range  $25,000 after rebates
    158. 158. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
    159. 159. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Smart Electric – 135 km range
    160. 160. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Toyota RAV4 EV 148 km range
    161. 161. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Top price: Tesla EV Model-X  7 seats. Spacious luggage capacity front & rear  0-90 kph in 4.4 seconds  300-400 kilomertes range  $67,000 plus incentives  Delivery in 2014
    162. 162. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Top The KIA Pop: yet to be released
    163. 163. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    164. 164. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com STELLA
    165. 165. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    166. 166. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven University Family size, 4-seater Roadworthy, legal in Holland Weight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV) Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshine Solar PV cost $4,000 10 months a year it produces more energy than it uses Excess power back into the grid
    167. 167. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric cars, running on green electricity = no climate impact
    168. 168. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Honda solar electric car charging
    169. 169. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric car fast charging
    170. 170. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    171. 171. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 50% fuel reduction Mercedes Biome concept car Ultra-lights
    172. 172. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Average car 2,000 kg Toyota Prius V 1,485 kg Evonik Elise EV 950 kg
    173. 173. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km 10,000 km = 1,500 kWh PV for EV
    174. 174. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1.5 kW solar PV $7,500 3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month
    175. 175. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 50% shift to Electric Vehicles
    176. 176. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% … 5% shift to telework = 60% … 5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% … 5% shift to car-sharing = 50% … 50% vehicles hybrid EV 80% = 30% … 50% of vehicles are electric = 5% … Lightweight design saves 50% = 2.5% … If all vehicles EVs = 0.0% … = Beyond Oil
    177. 177. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 100% shift to Beyond Oil for cars & light trucks
    178. 178. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Integrated Governance Cycling Transit Highways Rail
    179. 179. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Integrated Cost Analysis $ Cycling Transit Highways Rail $
    180. 180. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cost of a new traffic lane $300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
    181. 181. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cost of a new traffic lane $300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane $5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping 2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective
    182. 182. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cost of a new traffic lane $300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane $5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping 2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective $35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.
    183. 183. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cost of a new traffic lane $300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane $5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping 2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective $35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996. Cost of a new separated bike lane $100,000 per km = 7 to 12 times more cost-effective
    184. 184. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com  Carbon Taxes  Feebates  Road tolls  Utility Public Service Charges How can we pay for it all?
    185. 185. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Electronic Road Pricing
    186. 186. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Road-pricing on the Malahat
    187. 187. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 30,000 vehicles a day $2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day = 250 luxury coaches = up to 10,000 passengers a day
    188. 188. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Electric Freight Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck  Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg  Super-efficient designs 9 mpg
    189. 189. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cargohopper  3 tonnes max  60 km range  20 kph top speed  Urban deliveries  Holland www.cargohopper.com
    190. 190. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Freight Solutions - Trucking  Super-efficient designs save 35%  Electric plug-in to eliminate idling saves 8%  Slower driving saves 8%  ‘Empty miles’ shipping saves 5-15%  Combined innovations could save 60% But 60% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
    191. 191. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Solar Electric Freight Tube Vancouver – San Diego 5 hours 1994 US Federal Highway Administration study
    192. 192. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    193. 193. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    194. 194. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    195. 195. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Shipping Solutions 2.5% of global oil use
    196. 196. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com
    197. 197. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    198. 198. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Maltese Falcon: Advanced Square Rigger Sail Design
    199. 199. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com B9 Shipping: 100% renewably powered commercially and technically viable sailing hybrid cargo ships. www.b9energy.com
    200. 200. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 9 MW of solar panels Retractable sails between each cargo bay Self-unloading cargo bays Superconducting power link Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cells Sleek, low wind resistance design
    201. 201. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com  Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50%  Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25%  Skysails on slow boats (10 knots) - saves 20%  Ecospeed coating and underwater cleaning – saves 20%  Underwater propellor polishing – saves 2%  Black carbon elimination through cleaner fuel But 50% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
    202. 202. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Flying Solutions 8% of global oil use Latest designs save 20% But a 20% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
    203. 203. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraft Superconducting electric motors Paris Airshow, 2011 Up to Mach 4, Paris – Tokyo in 2.5 hours
    204. 204. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Renewable Electricity
    205. 205. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Renewable Fuel Biofuel made from…  Farm and forest wastes  Sewage and urban organic wastes  Cultivated algae using waste CO2  Cultivated seaweed Renewable fuel made from…  Carbon monoxide and industrial wastes  Green hydrogen  Green methanol (hydrogen and waste CO2)
    206. 206. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Renewable Fuel Will there be enough? Rocky Mountain Institute: with 84% fuel-saving potential US demand = 3.1 million barrels a day USDA-DOE analysis: US farmland could sustainably provide dry collectable biomass wastes = 3 million barrels a day.
    207. 207. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Stronger Local Economies
    208. 208. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    209. 209. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com So what’s The Secret to make it all happen?
    210. 210. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Community engagement
    211. 211. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Special Discount $20 Signed copies
    212. 212. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com BCSEA 2012 www.bcsea.org Together, we can change the world. To become a BCSEA Member www.bcsea.org/join
    213. 213. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com This whole presentation is available on www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
    214. 214. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com How can we make it happen? Questions Discussion
    215. 215. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous? Where Do We Come From? What Are We? Where Are We Going??
    216. 216. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.
    217. 217. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    218. 218. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Universe has taken 13 billion years to create us
    219. 219. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of stars in the Universe 1024: 1 trillion trillion
    220. 220. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of atoms in your body: 1027: 1000 trillion trillion All self-organized into one amazing whole
    221. 221. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bang or in a later Supernova explosion
    222. 222. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of stars in our galaxy 100 trillion
    223. 223. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of synapses in your brain 100 trillion All self-organized into one amazing whole
    224. 224. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars
    225. 225. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com We are all conscious
    226. 226. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Do you have free will to choose your future? Or is everything predetermined?
    227. 227. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com You have free will We can make a difference
    228. 228. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    229. 229. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
    230. 230. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
    231. 231. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com This is about us, our planet, and our future.
    232. 232. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Taken together, our efforts to make a better world are like drops of dew that slowly accumulate in the soul of the world. They hasten the day when the whole Earth, With all its peoples and all its many creatures, will enjoy harmony, fulfillment and peace.
    233. 233. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com

    ×