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Living on a Renewable Energy Budget - Is it possible to run the global economy entirely on renewable energy?

Living on a Renewable Energy Budget - Is it possible to run the global economy entirely on renewable energy?

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Association for Study of Peak Oil Association for Study of Peak Oil Presentation Transcript

  • Living on a Renewable Energy Budget Is it possible to run the global economy entirely on renewable energy? Guy Dauncey Victoria, BC, Canada www.earthfuture.com
  • The Four Challenges
  • The Four Challenges
  • The Four Challenges
  • The Four Challenges
  • The Four Challenges
  • G ross D omestic P roduct
  • G ross D epletion of the P lanet
  • In 200 years, we are burning the ancient solar energy that’s been stored as fossil fuels for 300 million years.
  • As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
  • The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising
  • Carbon dioxide traps
  • Under business as usual: Temperature Increase by 2011: 7ºF (4ºC)
  • Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com The Arctic sea ice is melting
  • Greenland is melting
  • Antarctica is melting
  • The last time the world was 3°C warmer the sea level was 25 metres higher
  • 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres
  • If all polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise 92 metres 70 metres
  • Will the reality of Peak Oil make the climate crisis go away?
  • The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32%* Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% * * Farming = methane + nitrous oxide
  • The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20%
  • The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20% Oil = 21% of cause of climate change
  • The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20% Oil = 21% of cause of climate change 5% per year oil depletion rate
  • The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20% Oil = 21% of the cause of climate change 5% per year depletion rate = = <1% per year impact on cause of climate change Source: The Climate Challenge, page 29
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  • NASA Annual Global Primary Energy Use 140,000 TWh 502 ExaJoules
  • NASA Six Recent Publications Explore the Challenge
  • 2010
  • “ All renewable energy resources provide 3,078 times the current global energy needs” WBGU German Advisory Council on Global Change
  • How Europe can go 100% renewable and phase out dirty energy “ Large-scale integration of renewable electricity in the European grid is both technically and economically feasible with a high level of security of supply, even under the most extreme climatic conditions with low wind and low solar radiation.” 2011
  • Renewable Energy 68% by 2030 99.5% by 2050 Greenpeace, 2011
  • 2011
  • WWF/Ecofys, April 2011
  • May 2011. 1,000 pages, 125 authors 2011
  • Technical Potential: ExaJoules Geothermal: 118 - 1109 Hydropower: 50 - 52 Ocean energy: 7 - 331 Wind onshore: 70 - 450 Wind offshore: 15 - 130 Direct solar: 1,575 - 49,837 Total: 1,728 - 51,909 Global demand 2008: 492
  • Dr. Gregor Czisch physicist and energy systems expert Transnational Renewables Consulting Kassel Germany 2005 English Translation 2011
  • 100% Renewable Electricity Future HVDC Supergrid
  • October 2011
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US of energy needs can be met by renewables by 2050
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US energy needs met by renewables by 2050
    • $4.5 trillion investment will save $9.5 trillion
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US energy needs met by renewables by 2050
    • $4.5 trillion investment saves $9.5 trillion
    • Projected energy demand will fall by 39%, 117 to 71 quads
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US energy needs met by renewables by 2050
    • $4.5 trillion investment saves $9.5 trillion
    • Projected energy demand falls from 117 to 71 quads
    • Carbon emissions will fall by 82-86% below 2000 level
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US energy needs met by renewables by 2050
    • $4.5 trillion investment saves $9.5 trillion
    • Projected energy demand falls from 117 to 71 quads
    • Carbon emissions fall by 82-86% below 2000 level
    • Economy can grow by 258%
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US energy needs met by renewables by 2050
    • $4.5 trillion investment saves $9.5 trillion
    • Projected energy demand falls from 117 to 71 quads
    • Carbon emissions fall by 82-86% below 2000 level
    • Economy grows by 258%
    • Investments will generate a 12% real return for industry,
    • 7% for buildings, 5.7% for electricity
  • Integrates Technology + Policy + Design + Strategy Trans-ideological Transformation, not incrementalism Practice, not theory
  • Ota Solar City, Japan The Power of Renewable Energy
  • Kurzweil- Earth Policy Institute
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  • Solar market penetration SOLAR
  • Source: unknown
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  • 1850 GW @ 15% = 2,430 TWh/year = 8.7 Exajoules
  • John Farrell 2009 www.energyselfreliantstates.org
  • John Farrell 2009 www.energyselfreliantstates.org
  • 2004 Solar PV 27 10 13 EROI 8
  • Pal Town Ota Solar City, Japan
  • Vauban, Freiburg, Germany
  • BedZED Zero Energy Village, London UK
  • Solar Stadium, Taiwan
  • Solar railway Paris to Amsterdam 16,000 panels 3.4 kilometres 3,300 MWh a year
  • Les Mees, southern France
  • Thin film solar production
  • Thin film solar
  • Transparent solar windows
  • Gemosolar, Seville, Spain
  • Solar Millennium AG Concentrating Solar Thermal Energy
  • 254 sq km = current world electricity use 110 sq km = current European Union use www.trecers.org
  • Wind Energy
  • (1) German Advisory Council on Global Change Wo rld in Transition - Towards Sustainable Energy Systems (2003) Global technical potential for energy production from onshore and offshore wind = 278,000 TWh per year (1,000 EJ) 10-15% could meet the global electricity demand (20,000 TWh) twice over. Excluded: all urban areas, forests, wetlands, nature reserves, glaciers and sand dunes.
  • (2) Stanford University ’s Global Climate and Energy Project 7,500 surface and 500 balloon-launch monitoring stations 13% had average Class 3 wind speed sufficient for economical wind power generation. 20% of this potential could meet global electricity demand (20,000 TWh) 7 times over = 500 EJ
  • Offshore = 6.8 months Onshore = 6.6 months Lifespan 20-30 years EROI = 35 to 55 Energy Balance Analysis
  • GEOTHERMAL US technical potential < 3000 GW = 10 times capacity of all installed coal power plants in US. Baseload power 3,000 GW = 18,000 TWh/year = 64 EJ EROI up to 18 Google, October 26, 2011
  • OIL EROI 20
  • OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$
  • OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$ Imports costs to economy
  • OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$ $$ Imports costs to economy $$ Military Costs
  • OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$ $$ Imports costs to economy $$$ Military Costs GLOBAL WARMING DANGER $$$$
  • SOLAR EROI 8-27 No global warming, pollution military or import costs,
  • WIND EROI 35-50 No global warming, pollution military or import costs,
  • GEO THERMAL EROI <18 No global warming, pollution military or import costs,
  • 9 million barrels of oil a day cars and light trucks
  • 8 million barrels oil/day 10% shift to electric bikes 35 mile range
  • 8 million barrels oil/day + Safe Bike Lanes
  • 8 million barrels oil/day + City Bike Sharing Programs
  • 7 million barrels oil/day 15% shift to modern Electric Buses & LRT
  • 7 million barrels oil/day 15% shift to modern Electric buses & LRT + Real-time electronic displays
  • 6 million barrels oil/day 10% shift to easy ride-sharing
  • 3 million barrels oil/day 50% shift to green electric vehicles
  • 0.75 million barrels oil/day 50% Plug-in Hybrid EVs 100 mpg 75% liquid fuel reduction
  • 0.4 million barrels oil/day Ultralight vehicle design 50% fuel need reduction (Mercedes Biome)
  • 0.4 million barrels oil/day + Easy car-sharing
  • 0.4 million barrels oil/day + Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
  • 0.4 million barrels fuel/day + More walking
  • 0.4 million barrels fuel/day + More teleworking
  • 0.4 million barrels fuel /day Result 95% less liquid fuel needed
  • 0.4 million barrels fuel /day 2nd generation biofuel from wastes
  • 0.4 million barrels fuel /day 3rd generation biofuel from algae
  • 0.4 million barrels fuel /day Result Sustainable Transport with 1/20th liquid fuel impact
  • So what’s needed? What’s holding things up?
  • What’s holding things up?
    • The political power of the fossil fuel lobby, and the corruption of American democracy by wealth and money
  • What’s holding things up?
    • The political power of the fossil fuel lobby, and the corruption of American democracy by wealth and money
    • The belief that western civilization is on an inevitable (and to some welcome) decline
  • What’s holding things up?
    • The political power of the fossil fuel lobby, and the corruption of American democracy by wealth and money
    • The belief that western civilization is on an inevitable (and to some welcome) decline
    • An absence of knowledge about the practical possibility of a desirable, sustainable future powered by 100% renewable energy.
  • What’s needed?
    • Political will, powered by the vision of a green sustainable future that generates jobs, excitement and hope
  • What’s needed?
    • Political will, powered by the vision of a green sustainable future that generates jobs, excitement and hope
    • Feed-in Tariffs, and other proven policies
  • What’s needed?
    • Political will, powered by the vision of a green sustainable future that generates jobs, excitement and hope
    • Feed-in Tariffs, and other proven policies
    • The end of defeatist despair, in spite of the many reasons.
  • Every Amazing Human Body 100,000 trillion trillion atoms All self-organized into one coherent whole
  • Every Human Brain 100 billion neurons 100 trillion synapses All self-organized into one coherent whole
  • There are 7 billion of us humans…
  • Can we self-organize ourselves into one peaceful coherent nature-loving sustainable whole…?
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  • We have been building our cumulative collective intelligence for millions of years
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  • Our technology is the expression of our cumulative collective intelligence
  • Our technology is the expression of our cumulative collective intelligence assisted by energy
  • We have made our recent evolutionary journey over ten million years
  • We have made our total evolutionary journey on Earth over 4.5 billion years
  • We have 5 billion years ahead of us before the Sun runs out of fuel and becomes a black dwarf
  • Five billion years We are here 4.5 billion past 5 billion future
  • Five billion years We are here 4.5 billion past 5 billion future This is the potential miracle that awaits us
  • Firewood 1.5 million years Cumulative Intelligence The Carbon Years…
  • The Carbon Years could be seen as the launch-ramp… Firewood 1.5 million years Cumulative Intelligence Fossil Fuels 200 years
  • … for the Solar Years Firewood 1.5 million years Cumulative Intelligence Fossil Fuels 200 years Renewable Energy 5 billion years
  • … for the Solar Years Renewable Energy - 5 billion years
  • That can last … sustainably … forever………..
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  • Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com