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Association for Study of Peak Oil

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Living on a Renewable Energy Budget - Is it possible to run the global economy entirely on renewable energy?

Living on a Renewable Energy Budget - Is it possible to run the global economy entirely on renewable energy?

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  • 1. Living on a Renewable Energy Budget Is it possible to run the global economy entirely on renewable energy? Guy Dauncey Victoria, BC, Canada www.earthfuture.com
  • 2. The Four Challenges
  • 3. The Four Challenges
  • 4. The Four Challenges
  • 5. The Four Challenges
  • 6. The Four Challenges
  • 7. G ross D omestic P roduct
  • 8. G ross D epletion of the P lanet
  • 9. In 200 years, we are burning the ancient solar energy that’s been stored as fossil fuels for 300 million years.
  • 10. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
  • 11. The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising
  • 12. Carbon dioxide traps
  • 13. Under business as usual: Temperature Increase by 2011: 7ºF (4ºC)
  • 14. Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com The Arctic sea ice is melting
  • 15. Greenland is melting
  • 16. Antarctica is melting
  • 17. The last time the world was 3°C warmer the sea level was 25 metres higher
  • 18. 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres
  • 19. If all polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise 92 metres 70 metres
  • 20. Will the reality of Peak Oil make the climate crisis go away?
  • 21. The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32%* Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% * * Farming = methane + nitrous oxide
  • 22. The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20%
  • 23. The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20% Oil = 21% of cause of climate change
  • 24. The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20% Oil = 21% of cause of climate change 5% per year oil depletion rate
  • 25. The Causes of Climate Change Fossil fuels 53% Farming 32% Deforestation 17% F gases 9% Cement 3% Coal 40% Oil 40% Gas 20% Oil = 21% of the cause of climate change 5% per year depletion rate = = <1% per year impact on cause of climate change Source: The Climate Challenge, page 29
  • 26.  
  • 27. NASA Annual Global Primary Energy Use 140,000 TWh 502 ExaJoules
  • 28. NASA Six Recent Publications Explore the Challenge
  • 29. 2010
  • 30. “ All renewable energy resources provide 3,078 times the current global energy needs” WBGU German Advisory Council on Global Change
  • 31. How Europe can go 100% renewable and phase out dirty energy “ Large-scale integration of renewable electricity in the European grid is both technically and economically feasible with a high level of security of supply, even under the most extreme climatic conditions with low wind and low solar radiation.” 2011
  • 32. Renewable Energy 68% by 2030 99.5% by 2050 Greenpeace, 2011
  • 33. 2011
  • 34. WWF/Ecofys, April 2011
  • 35. May 2011. 1,000 pages, 125 authors 2011
  • 36. Technical Potential: ExaJoules Geothermal: 118 - 1109 Hydropower: 50 - 52 Ocean energy: 7 - 331 Wind onshore: 70 - 450 Wind offshore: 15 - 130 Direct solar: 1,575 - 49,837 Total: 1,728 - 51,909 Global demand 2008: 492
  • 37. Dr. Gregor Czisch physicist and energy systems expert Transnational Renewables Consulting Kassel Germany 2005 English Translation 2011
  • 38. 100% Renewable Electricity Future HVDC Supergrid
  • 39. October 2011
  • 40.
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
  • 41.
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US of energy needs can be met by renewables by 2050
  • 42.
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US energy needs met by renewables by 2050
    • $4.5 trillion investment will save $9.5 trillion
  • 43.
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US energy needs met by renewables by 2050
    • $4.5 trillion investment saves $9.5 trillion
    • Projected energy demand will fall by 39%, 117 to 71 quads
  • 44.
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US energy needs met by renewables by 2050
    • $4.5 trillion investment saves $9.5 trillion
    • Projected energy demand falls from 117 to 71 quads
    • Carbon emissions will fall by 82-86% below 2000 level
  • 45.
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US energy needs met by renewables by 2050
    • $4.5 trillion investment saves $9.5 trillion
    • Projected energy demand falls from 117 to 71 quads
    • Carbon emissions fall by 82-86% below 2000 level
    • Economy can grow by 258%
  • 46.
    • Two-year rigorous analysis by team of 60 people at RMI
    • 80% US energy needs met by renewables by 2050
    • $4.5 trillion investment saves $9.5 trillion
    • Projected energy demand falls from 117 to 71 quads
    • Carbon emissions fall by 82-86% below 2000 level
    • Economy grows by 258%
    • Investments will generate a 12% real return for industry,
    • 7% for buildings, 5.7% for electricity
  • 47. Integrates Technology + Policy + Design + Strategy Trans-ideological Transformation, not incrementalism Practice, not theory
  • 48. Ota Solar City, Japan The Power of Renewable Energy
  • 49. Kurzweil- Earth Policy Institute
  • 50.  
  • 51. Solar market penetration SOLAR
  • 52. Source: unknown
  • 53.  
  • 54. 1850 GW @ 15% = 2,430 TWh/year = 8.7 Exajoules
  • 55. John Farrell 2009 www.energyselfreliantstates.org
  • 56. John Farrell 2009 www.energyselfreliantstates.org
  • 57. 2004 Solar PV 27 10 13 EROI 8
  • 58. Pal Town Ota Solar City, Japan
  • 59. Vauban, Freiburg, Germany
  • 60. BedZED Zero Energy Village, London UK
  • 61. Solar Stadium, Taiwan
  • 62. Solar railway Paris to Amsterdam 16,000 panels 3.4 kilometres 3,300 MWh a year
  • 63. Les Mees, southern France
  • 64. Thin film solar production
  • 65. Thin film solar
  • 66. Transparent solar windows
  • 67. Gemosolar, Seville, Spain
  • 68. Solar Millennium AG Concentrating Solar Thermal Energy
  • 69. 254 sq km = current world electricity use 110 sq km = current European Union use www.trecers.org
  • 70. Wind Energy
  • 71. (1) German Advisory Council on Global Change Wo rld in Transition - Towards Sustainable Energy Systems (2003) Global technical potential for energy production from onshore and offshore wind = 278,000 TWh per year (1,000 EJ) 10-15% could meet the global electricity demand (20,000 TWh) twice over. Excluded: all urban areas, forests, wetlands, nature reserves, glaciers and sand dunes.
  • 72. (2) Stanford University ’s Global Climate and Energy Project 7,500 surface and 500 balloon-launch monitoring stations 13% had average Class 3 wind speed sufficient for economical wind power generation. 20% of this potential could meet global electricity demand (20,000 TWh) 7 times over = 500 EJ
  • 73. Offshore = 6.8 months Onshore = 6.6 months Lifespan 20-30 years EROI = 35 to 55 Energy Balance Analysis
  • 74. GEOTHERMAL US technical potential < 3000 GW = 10 times capacity of all installed coal power plants in US. Baseload power 3,000 GW = 18,000 TWh/year = 64 EJ EROI up to 18 Google, October 26, 2011
  • 75. OIL EROI 20
  • 76. OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$
  • 77. OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$ Imports costs to economy
  • 78. OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$ $$ Imports costs to economy $$ Military Costs
  • 79. OIL EROI 20 Air Pollution $$ $$ Imports costs to economy $$$ Military Costs GLOBAL WARMING DANGER $$$$
  • 80. SOLAR EROI 8-27 No global warming, pollution military or import costs,
  • 81. WIND EROI 35-50 No global warming, pollution military or import costs,
  • 82. GEO THERMAL EROI <18 No global warming, pollution military or import costs,
  • 83. 9 million barrels of oil a day cars and light trucks
  • 84. 8 million barrels oil/day 10% shift to electric bikes 35 mile range
  • 85. 8 million barrels oil/day + Safe Bike Lanes
  • 86. 8 million barrels oil/day + City Bike Sharing Programs
  • 87. 7 million barrels oil/day 15% shift to modern Electric Buses & LRT
  • 88. 7 million barrels oil/day 15% shift to modern Electric buses & LRT + Real-time electronic displays
  • 89. 6 million barrels oil/day 10% shift to easy ride-sharing
  • 90. 3 million barrels oil/day 50% shift to green electric vehicles
  • 91. 0.75 million barrels oil/day 50% Plug-in Hybrid EVs 100 mpg 75% liquid fuel reduction
  • 92. 0.4 million barrels oil/day Ultralight vehicle design 50% fuel need reduction (Mercedes Biome)
  • 93. 0.4 million barrels oil/day + Easy car-sharing
  • 94. 0.4 million barrels oil/day + Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
  • 95. 0.4 million barrels fuel/day + More walking
  • 96. 0.4 million barrels fuel/day + More teleworking
  • 97. 0.4 million barrels fuel /day Result 95% less liquid fuel needed
  • 98. 0.4 million barrels fuel /day 2nd generation biofuel from wastes
  • 99. 0.4 million barrels fuel /day 3rd generation biofuel from algae
  • 100. 0.4 million barrels fuel /day Result Sustainable Transport with 1/20th liquid fuel impact
  • 101. So what’s needed? What’s holding things up?
  • 102. What’s holding things up?
    • The political power of the fossil fuel lobby, and the corruption of American democracy by wealth and money
  • 103. What’s holding things up?
    • The political power of the fossil fuel lobby, and the corruption of American democracy by wealth and money
    • The belief that western civilization is on an inevitable (and to some welcome) decline
  • 104. What’s holding things up?
    • The political power of the fossil fuel lobby, and the corruption of American democracy by wealth and money
    • The belief that western civilization is on an inevitable (and to some welcome) decline
    • An absence of knowledge about the practical possibility of a desirable, sustainable future powered by 100% renewable energy.
  • 105. What’s needed?
    • Political will, powered by the vision of a green sustainable future that generates jobs, excitement and hope
  • 106. What’s needed?
    • Political will, powered by the vision of a green sustainable future that generates jobs, excitement and hope
    • Feed-in Tariffs, and other proven policies
  • 107. What’s needed?
    • Political will, powered by the vision of a green sustainable future that generates jobs, excitement and hope
    • Feed-in Tariffs, and other proven policies
    • The end of defeatist despair, in spite of the many reasons.
  • 108. Every Amazing Human Body 100,000 trillion trillion atoms All self-organized into one coherent whole
  • 109. Every Human Brain 100 billion neurons 100 trillion synapses All self-organized into one coherent whole
  • 110. There are 7 billion of us humans…
  • 111. Can we self-organize ourselves into one peaceful coherent nature-loving sustainable whole…?
  • 112.  
  • 113. We have been building our cumulative collective intelligence for millions of years
  • 114.  
  • 115.  
  • 116.  
  • 117.  
  • 118.  
  • 119.  
  • 120.  
  • 121.  
  • 122.  
  • 123.  
  • 124.  
  • 125. Our technology is the expression of our cumulative collective intelligence
  • 126. Our technology is the expression of our cumulative collective intelligence assisted by energy
  • 127. We have made our recent evolutionary journey over ten million years
  • 128. We have made our total evolutionary journey on Earth over 4.5 billion years
  • 129. We have 5 billion years ahead of us before the Sun runs out of fuel and becomes a black dwarf
  • 130. Five billion years We are here 4.5 billion past 5 billion future
  • 131. Five billion years We are here 4.5 billion past 5 billion future This is the potential miracle that awaits us
  • 132. Firewood 1.5 million years Cumulative Intelligence The Carbon Years…
  • 133. The Carbon Years could be seen as the launch-ramp… Firewood 1.5 million years Cumulative Intelligence Fossil Fuels 200 years
  • 134. … for the Solar Years Firewood 1.5 million years Cumulative Intelligence Fossil Fuels 200 years Renewable Energy 5 billion years
  • 135. … for the Solar Years Renewable Energy - 5 billion years
  • 136. That can last … sustainably … forever………..
  • 137.  
  • 138.  
  • 139. Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com