1. Practical Solutions to Global Warming and the Energy Crisis Guy Dauncey The Post-Carbon Future
3. We have been walking on two feet for six million years
4. Each generation has successfully passed on the wisdom in its genes and its knowledge.
5. Do you think future humans will do the same, so that humans will be living and thriving on Planet Earth in a million years time?
6. YES NO “ In a million years time”
7. YES NO
8. YES NO
9. YES NO
11. THE HUMAN JOURNEY
12. We’ve come a long way from this….
13. to this….
14. We live on the edge of one of 100 billion galaxies
15. We take almost all our energy from the Sun
18. 8 minutes and 19 seconds ago, the light and heat we are seeing and feeling now was on the surface of the Sun.
19. The Sun sends the energy that trees absorb and store
20. 800,000 years ago, we discovered how to make fire.
21. For 800,000 years, we used firewood as our primary source of energy.
22. Then we discovered coal…
23. Using coal, we started the industrial revolution
24. Then we discovered oil…
25. and natural gas…
26. Whether it’s coal, oil or gas, it’s all ancient fossilized solar energy, stored for 100 million years.
27. ..but the Sun is rapidly setting on the Age of Fossil Fuels.
28. 20,000 years is the Age of Fossil Fuels This 10,000 years past 10,000 years future
29. Guy Dauncey 2009 www.earthfuture.com
31. Survey of petroleum geologists October 2008 61% think already, or within ten years
32. International Energy Agency Senior IEA official: “ The IEA has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.” Terry Macalister, Guardian UK Nov 9 2009
33. Alberta’s oil sands… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
34. Only producing 1.2 million barrels a day. We consume 84 million barrels a day.
36. Out of gas - Chongquin, China
39. If we don’t prepare….
40. And then there’s climate change…
41. In 200 years, we are burning most of that ancient solar energy … and then it’s gone.
42. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com As we burn this ancient solar energy…
43. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com we release its carbon into the atmosphere.
44. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO 2
45. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO 2 CO 2
46. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO 2 CO 2 CO 2
47. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2
48. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second
49. Deutsche Bank Near Madison Square Garden, New York www.dbcca.com We have added 3.6 trillion tonnes of heat-trapping greenhouse gases to our atmosphere. Rising by 1,000 tonnes every second.
55. Iqoncept Dreamstime.com
56. Smithore Dreamstime.com
57. Tatyana Chernyak Dreamstime.com
58. We are being besieged with negativity, and disbelief in our future.
60. It’s all about sustainability, leadership…
61. Antonia Dreamstime.com … and our grandchildren
62. The Renaissance was the launch pad for the Scientific Revolution Wikimedia
63. Wikimedia The Scientific Revolution was the launch pad for the Industrial Revolution
64. The Industrial Age becomes the launch-pad for the Solar Age .
65. The incredible energy of fossil fuels has enabled us to build the scientific and technological capital we need to advance beyond fossil fuels….
66. Rolf Disch Solar Architecture … into the Solar Age.
67. A 100% Shift to Renewable Energy Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com
69. Wood Solar Fossil Solar Solar Solar Wikimedia
70. You are the midwives of the Solar Revolution
75. 100% Renewable Energy What does It look like? Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com
76. 1. Electricity
80. Solar PV 40% growth pa 50-80 cents/kWh - and falling Global Potential: Enormous Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
81. Solar PV in Germany
82. Solar Stadium, Taiwan
83. Dow’s Solar Shingles
84. Thin film solar
85. Thin film solar production
86. Price per Watt: 1985 = $10. 2010 = $4. The module represents 50-60% of the total installed cost of a solar PV system
87. Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials, Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008
88. Solar market penetration
90. Solar Millennium AG Solar thermal energy
91. The Sun radiates almost 1000 times more energy onto the Earth’s deserts than humankind uses.
92. Large square 254 sq km, if all solar thermal = current world electricity use Small square 110 sq km = current European Union use www.trecers.org
93. Siemens AG
95. 2006 prediction for 2009:
96. 2009 reality: www.wwindea.org
97. 2007: 173 TWh 2009: 340 TWh Global technical potential: 410,000 TWh = 12 x global electricity needs Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
98. Proposed Green Power Corridors Corporate Knights, Nov 2006
100. Europe’s geothermal resources at 5 km deep: 1 km 3 of hot granite delivers 10 MW for 20 years (900 TWh/year) Available resource: 125,000 km 3 = 112,500,000 TWh/year Spread over 1,000 years = 112,500 TWh/year European energy use = 13,000 TWh/year = 10 times Europe’s energy use
101. Tying it Together: The Distributed Grid Bonneville Power Administration, WA Guy Dauncey 2010 www.earthfuture.com
103. Smart Metering 20% reduction Time of Use Metering 12% reduction
105. Germ Cost of electricity in Germany: 32 cents kWh Ontario: 4 - 9 cents kWh
106. Efficiency + smart metering + wind energy + solar PV + solar thermal + hydropower + geothermal power + tidal & wave power + biomass power + smart grid + new storage technologies + gradually phased out nuclear power = 100% zero-carbon electricity
107. 2. Transport without Oil
108. Ancient Technology - Feet Toronto Walking School Bus Toronto Walking School Bus
109. Nanjing pedestrian street, Shanghai
110. Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, Korea
111. Cisco Systems
112. Cycling: 36% of all commute trips in Copenhagen are by bike. Goal is 50% by 2015.
113. San Francisco - safe protected bike lane
114. Electric bikes…. 1 cent per 20 km
115. Madsen urban utility bike ($1300) + eZee motor and battery ($1300) E-Biking with the whole family…
117. E-Zip electric bike - $350 from Walmart 30 km range
118. Public Transit
119. Hasselt, Belgium: Free Transit included in city taxes Since 1996, 11-fold increase in ridership
121. Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net
122. Philly CarShare 50,000 people share 270 vehicles City reduced its fleet by 330 vehicles See
123. Ride sharing…
124. Nissan Leaf EV. $25 - $30,000 Coming in 2011 Running cost under $10/week, plus $150/month battery lease. Electric Vehicles
125. RWE Mobility.com
129. Louis Palmer and his Solar Taxi 33,000 km around the world $8 a week running cost
130. Walking + cycling + transit + rail and light rail + videoconferencing + ridesharing + carsharing + electric vehicles + plug-in hybrid electric vehicles + biofuel capacity + vehicle efficiency increase + road pricing = 100% zero carbon personal transport
131. Siemens AG
133. Smith Electric Trucks www.smithelectricvehicles.com
134. Biofuel being grown from algae
135. Replacing aviation fuel with biofuel New Scientist, Sept 2008
136. Replacing aviation fuel with biofuel New Scientist, Sept 2008
137. Hypothetical large scale algae farm
138. Heat: can we generate it without fossil fuels?
139. Passive House, Frankfurt, Germany Uses 95% less energy
140. Stockholm uses heat from treated sewage effluent to provide hot water and heating to 80,000 apartments - Stephen Salter, 2007
141. Pre-insulated piping used to heat homes and commercial buildings in Scandinavia. Delivers hot water at 200 o C to customers up to 23 km away. Photo and text by Jayson Antonoff
142. Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED) Sutton, London, UK Energy Centre
143. The Energy Centre Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year Community solar heat panels Solar hot water panels Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com
144. 800 solar hot water panels on the garages 90% of residential space heating needs is met by stored solar thermal energy (40-50 o C)
145. Dockside Green, Victoria 15 acres, holistic design, all LEED Platinum 55% less energy than model building code www.docksidegreen.com
146. Pearl River Tower Guangzhou, China
149. Heat Exchange A heat exchange floor being laid Air-source Ground-source Water-source Sewer-source Ice-Source
152. Geothermal Radial Drilling European geo-drilling technique http://geothermic.tracto-technik.com
156. Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany Sorce: Solvis
157. Solar thermal + Solar PV + Skylights
158. Wood Pellets Stove
159. = wood pellet plants
160. London Use of infrared heat leakage mapping to identify priorities for energy retrofitting.
162. The Road to Success
165. Gussing Population 8,000 Small, isolated, forested. 1988, one of the poorest regions in Austria Few local jobs. 70% of local people worked in Vienna (160 km) or Graz (90 km) $8 million annual bill for fuel and energy Early 1990s, policy proposal calling for the complete abandonment of all fossil-fuel-based energy
166. Gussing Since 1995, they have achieved a 93% transition off fossil fuels. = 93% reduction in their carbon footprint.
167. Heat, electricity and fuel from forest biomass, corn, waste cooking oil, & solar. Continuous biomass gasification of wood
168. Solar-biomass plant
169. Biomass electrical power plant 4500 kW long distance heat and 2000 kW electricity from 1760 kg of wood per hour.
170. Biodiesel from canola, sunflowers, waste cooking oils, and fats
171. Gussing School 100 m 2 solar thermal plant saves 15,000 kWh/year. 10 kW Solar PV plant generates 9,000 kWh/year. Annual income = approx. Euros 5 ,400.
172. Long distance heat plant Burns sawdust and chopped forest timber Drying kiln for timber, heat for 200 homes + 40 large buildings
173. 594 kW solar and biomass plant 39 customers 2.5 kilometres heat network 850,000 kWh heat per year
175. Since 1995 27 new decentralized power plants 60 new companies, 1,200 new jobs Ecotourism brought 30,000 visitors in 2007 Biomass heat and power facility
177. <ul><li>Gussing’s organizational centre: </li></ul><ul><li>European Centre for Renewable Energy </li></ul><ul><li>5 Corporate Divisions: </li></ul><ul><li>Education, Solar School </li></ul><ul><li>Installation </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Self-Sufficient Region </li></ul><ul><li>Zero Emission Power Plants </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Efficiency </li></ul>
178. EAR - Energy Autarkic Region EAR is a proven concept which not only conserves valuable energy, but also re-injects a high proportion of investment into the local economy. It keeps money in the local area, creates new jobs, and greatly reduces emissions.
183. <ul><li>What’s needed to accelerate progress? </li></ul><ul><li>A Compelling Vision </li></ul><ul><li>Convey what Sault will look and feel like in the future. </li></ul><ul><li>Alternative Energy Capital, climate action, clean tech, peak oil resilience, and the transition to a sustainable future all come together in a shared vision. </li></ul><ul><li>Use the arts, prose, performance. </li></ul>
184. <ul><li>What’s needed to accelerate progress? </li></ul><ul><li>2. A Strategic Plan </li></ul><ul><li>A coordinated strategy for the City, businesses and community entities, to get everyone aligned. </li></ul><ul><li>Ontario’s Green Energy Act creates ideal foundation </li></ul><ul><li>Need to lobby Ottawa to keep ecoEnergy </li></ul><ul><li>Host of frustrating barriers to overcome </li></ul><ul><li>10 Sectoral working groups, to work on all the core dimensions - Chicago, Whistler. </li></ul><ul><li>Full time Director of Sustainability. </li></ul>
185. <ul><li>What’s needed to accelerate progress? </li></ul><ul><li>3. Community engagement </li></ul><ul><li>Households, schools, businesses, service clubs. </li></ul><ul><li>Annual awards and celebrations for the “greenest home”, “greenest business”, “greenest block”, “greenest school”. </li></ul>
186. This is a great opportunity
187. to build a sustainable future
188. Solutions for Individuals Champions Communities Businesses Farmers Transport Energy Companies Governments Developing Nations Global
189. You are the midwives of the Solar Revolution
190. Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com www.theclimatechallenge.ca