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Crops Day - Moe Agostino, 2014 Grain Outlook – Is $4.00 Corn the New Normal?
 

Crops Day - Moe Agostino, 2014 Grain Outlook – Is $4.00 Corn the New Normal?

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Maurizio (Moe) Agostino, Managing Commodity Strategist, Farms.com Risk Management ...

Maurizio (Moe) Agostino, Managing Commodity Strategist, Farms.com Risk Management

2014 Review of Grain Supply and Demand Fundamentals, Key Global Macro Issues, Chart Analysis, Weather and basis update and grain price target outlooks. Where will the marketing opportunities appear in a lower priced grain environment.

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  • Show the image of the U.S. Drought Monitor Map. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> The 2012 U.S. drought started in January and peaked in September of that year. <br />
  • Show the image of a corn cob. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> The 2012 U.S. drought dropped U.S. average corn yields to 122.8 bpa. <br />
  • Show the image of corn. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> The 2012 U.S. drought worst since 1956. <br />
  • Show the image of corn. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> The 2012 U.S. drought worst since 1956. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of the 1988 December daily corn futures chart. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the chart of managed money crowd <br />
  • Show the image of the 1988 December daily corn futures chart. <br />
  • Show the chart of managed money crowd <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />
  • Show the image of U.S. corn yield chart. <br /> In point form show the following; <br /> 2012 U.S. corn yields dropped from a record 164.7 in 2009 to 122.8 a drop of 41.9 bushels/acre. <br />

Crops Day - Moe Agostino, 2014 Grain Outlook – Is $4.00 Corn the New Normal? Crops Day - Moe Agostino, 2014 Grain Outlook – Is $4.00 Corn the New Normal? Presentation Transcript

  • 2014 28th ANNUAL GREY BRUCE FARMERS WEEK – 2014 GRAIN MARKET OUTLOOK - IS $4.00 CORN NEW NORMAL? 1
  • 2012 GRAIN OUTLOOK: IS $7.00 CORN THE NEW NORMAL? 2
  • 2011 PRICE TARGETS (GAME PLAN) CROP PRICE FORECAST CORN SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $6.74 - $7.00 LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS $7.00 - $7.50 SOYBEANS SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $12.50 - $13.00 LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS) $13.50 $14.00 CANOLA SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $545 LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS) $575 - $600 CHICAGO WHEAT SHORT-TERM (30-60 DAYS) $7.27 LONG-TERM (60 – 210 DAYS) $8.00 - $8.25 3
  • 2012 PRICE TARGETS (GAME PLAN) CROP PRICE FORECAST CORN DECEMBER FUTURES US $7.00 – $8.00 SOYBEANS NOVEMBER FUTURES US $14.00 - $15.00 CANOLA NOVEMBER FUTURES $600 - $630/MT CHICAGO WHEAT SEPTEMBER FUTURES $8.00 - $8.50 4
  • AGENDA Review of 2011 & 2012 U.S. DROUGHT 2013 similar to 1988 as a “SHORT CROP, LONG TAIL” year. 2014 Grain Supply & Demand (Fundamental) Outlook 14 Macro Economic Outlook (outside markets) & Global Trends 2014 Chart/Technical Outlook 2014 Ontario Basis Outlook 2014 Weather Outlook 2014 Bottom-line & Game Plan 2014 Price Outlook & Targets 5
  • MONTHLY LONG-TERM CORN CHART 6
  • U.S. DROUGHT PEAKED IN SEPTEMBER OF 2012 7
  • 2012 U.S. HEAT & DROUGHT DESTROYED U.S. CORN YIELDS 122.8 BPA 8
  • U.S. DROUGHT WORST IN 91 YEARS, JULY 16, 2012 9
  • WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES JULY 2013 10
  • U.S. CORN YIELDS DATING BACK TO 1866 RARE & VERY UNUSUAL 11
  • 2012 QUALIFIES AS A “SHORT CROP, LONG TAIL YEAR” LIKE 1988 SHORT CROP LONG TAIL 12
  • 2012 “SHORT CROP, LONG TAIL” 13
  • MANAGED MONEY CROWD WERE RECORD LONG COMMODITY LONG OR SHORT (05/31/11) LONG OR SHORT (11/22/11) LONG OR SHORT (07/10/12) LONG OR SHORT (08/14/12) CORN LONG 328,112 LONG 149,084 LONG 201,956 LONG 303,178 SOYBEANS LONG 117,551 SHORT (8,622) LONG 250,792 LONG 230,545 WHEAT LONG 83,241 SHORT (50,582) LONG 62,468 LONG 77,104
  • 2013’S LONG TAIL GOT LONGER NEEDED TO SELL A YEAR IN ADVANCE 15
  • 2014 GRAIN OUTLOOK
  • 2014 JANUARY USDA WASDE REPORT BULLISH CORN, NEUTRAL SOYS & BEARISH WHEAT! 17
  • 2014 MARCH WEEKLY CORN FUTURES CONTRACT 18
  • PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. CORN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 19
  • PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. CORN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 20
  • POST 2014 JANUARY USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. CORN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 21
  • POST 2014 JANUARY USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 U.S. CORN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 22
  • PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. SOYBEAN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 23
  • PRE 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. SOYBEAN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 24
  • POST 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. SOYBEAN SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 25
  • POST 2014 JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 U.S. SOYBEAN DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 26
  • PRE 2014 USDA JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. ALL WHEAT SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 27
  • PRE 2014 USDA JANUARY WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. ALL WHEAT DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 28
  • POST 2014 USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 & 2015 U.S. ALL WHEAT SUPLLY & DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 29
  • POST 2014 USDA WASDE REPORT - 2014 U.S. ALL WHEAT DEMAND PROJECTIONS & OUTLOOK 30
  • LONG-TERM WEEKLY CHART ON CHICAGO WHEAT FUTURES SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM 31
  • 2014 USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM 32
  • 2014 USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM 2013 PROJECTIONS 33
  • 2013/14 GLOBAL TRENDS 34
  • #1 LARGEST ECONOMY U.S. LOOKING BETTER GROWING AT 3.6% IN 13, +2.5% IN 2014 35
  • STOCK MARKETS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THE WALL OF WORRY TO NEW ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS, NEGATIVE FOR COMMODITIES BUT…. 2014 DJIA MARCH WEEKLY FUTURES CHART SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM
  • #2 LARGERST ECONOMY CHINA EXPECTED TO GROW AT +7.70+ IN 2013, +8.2% IN 2014 37
  • OPEC PROJECTING $100 – $110 ON INCREASED DEMAND, SUPPLY WILL WEIGH 2014 FEBRUARY WEEKLY CRUDE OIL FUTURES CHART SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM 38
  • HEATING OIL FUTURES HIGHER = HIGHER DIESEL FUEL PRICES 2014 FEBRUARY WEEKLY HEATING OIL FUTURES CHART SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM 39
  • STRONGER EUROPE, GROWTH IN 14 = HIGHER EURO $ 2014 MARCH WEEKLY EURO $ FUTURES CHART SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM 40
  • U.S. $ INDEX TRENDING LOWER, SUPPORT AT $80 2014 MARCH U.S. $ INDEX FUTURES CHART SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM 41
  • CDN $ TRENDING LOWER, SUPPORT AT $0.93 A $ YEAR LOW 2014 MARCH CANADIAN $ WEEKLY FUTURES CHART SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM 42
  • US TAPER WILL SLOW DOWN, BUT LABOR MARKET WEAK??? 43
  • RASING OF DEBT CEILING RISK OFF THE TABLE IN 2014, NO RECESSION FOR 12 – 24 MONTHS SOURCE: WWW.QTPLUS.COM 44
  • 2014 TECHNICAL CHART OUTLOOK 45
  • 2014 JULY CORN DAILY FUTURES CHART 46
  • 2014 DECEMBER CORN DAILY FUTURES CHART 47
  • 2014 JULY SOYBEAN DAILY FUTURES CHART 48
  • 2014 NOVEMBER SOYBEAN DAILY FUTURES CHART 49
  • 2014 JULY CHICAGO WHEAT DAILY FUTURES CHART 50
  • 2014 ONTARIO BASIS WATCH 51
  • 2013 & 2014 ONTARIO CORN BASIS 52
  • 2013 & 2014 ONTARIO SOYBEAN WATCH 53
  • 2013 & 2014 ONTARIO CHICAGO WHEAT (SRW) BASIS 54
  • 2013 WEATHER & CROP PROGRESS UPDATE 55
  • U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP – U.S. AT 54% VS. 12 AT 74%
  • U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP – U.S. MIDWEST AT 33% (BETTER BY 9% IN 1 MONTH) ABNORMALLY DRY VS. 12 AT 72%
  • BUT SOIL MOISTURE LOOKING GOOD
  • U.S. WINTER TO PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
  • U.S. MIDWEST SUMMER 2014 HOT & WET
  • U.S. TEMPS % PRECIPITATION NOVEMBER 2013 – OCTOBER 2014
  • BOTTOM-LINE 62
  • 2014 TRENDS TO WATCH 63
  • WATCH SPECULATORS REMAIN SHORT CORN & WHEAT, SOYS HAVE MOST TO LOSE AS FUNDS REMAIN LONG COMMODITY LONG LONG OR LONG OR LONG OR SHORT OR SHORT SHORT SHORT (06/18/12) (08/14/12) (03/05/13) (05/31/11) CORN LONG 328,112 LONG 43,024 LONG 303,178 LONG 62,864 LONG 82,517 SHORT 891,451 SOYBEANS LONG 117,551 SHORT 212,956 LONG 230,545 LONG 128,296 LONG 153,615 LONG 107,658 CHICAGO WHEAT LONG 83,241 SHORT (6,367) LONG 77, 104 SHORT 46,286 SHORT 16,697 SHORT 73,088 LONG OR LONG OR SHORT SHORT (06/11/13) (01/07/13)
  • WATCH CHINESE DEMAND (UP 5 FOLD IN 5 YEARS)
  • WATCH WEATHER NEEDS TO BE DRY EARLY FOR FUTURES TO RALLY
  • LOOK FOR A LOWR CDN $ FOR BASIS OPPORTUNITIES
  • 2013/14 OLD CROP BASIS TARGETS COMMODITY 01-09-14 BASIS/BU BASIS TARGET LEVEL/BU TO BOOK CORN -0.20 0.00 - +0.10 SOYBEANS +0.70 +1.00 - +1.20 CHICAGO WHEAT (SRW) -0.15 0.10 - +0.30
  • 2014/15 NEW CROP BASIS TARGETS COMMODITY 12/09/13 BASIS LEVEL/BU BASIS TARGET LEVEL/BU TO BOOK CORN -0.25 0.00 - +0.10 SOYBEANS +0.20 +40 - +0.60 CHICAGO WHEAT (SRW) -0.30 0.00 - +0.20
  • 2014 MARKETING GAME PLAN
  • 2013/14 OLD CROP FUTURES TARGETS COMMODITY FUTURES MONTH FUTURES TARGET PRICE UPDATE CORN JULY 2014 $5.00 - $5.50 SOYBEANS JULY 2014 $12.60 - $12.80 CHICAGO WHEAT JULY 2014 $7.00 - $7.25
  • 2014/15 NEW CROP FUTURES TARGETS COMMODITY FUTURES MONTH FUTURES TARGET PRICE UPDATE CORN DECEMBER 2014 $5.09 - $5.29 SOYBEANS NOVEMBER 2014 $12.03 - $12.28 CHICAGO WHEAT JULY 2014 $7.00 - $7.25
  • 2015/16 NEW CROP FUTURES TARGETS COMMODITY FUTURES MONTH FUTURES TARGET PRICE UPDATE CORN DECEMBER 2014 $5.12 - $5.29 SOYBEANS NOVEMBER 2014 $11.84 - $12.07 CHICAGO WHEAT JULY 2014 $7.04 - $7.27
  • THANK YOU QUESTIONS & DISCUSSION Please e-mail or call me at Maurizio (Moe) Agostino Farms.com Risk Management Managing Commodity Strategist 1-877-438-5729 Ext. 5040 Cell: 1-519-871-2134 E-mail: moe.agostino@farms.com 74
  • COMMODITY MARKETING THAT MAKES CENT$ 75