Foundations for a Future Orientation

Slide 1: Dr. Gregory Waddell

Slide 2: Overview Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 6: “Acting while there is still a choice.” –Bertrand de Jouvenal Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 7: “Planning from the future back to the present” –Marsh, McAllum & Purcell Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 8: “Internal and external factors or trends that will impact the institution.” –McFarland & Moore, 2003 Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 9: Identifying Driving Forces S ocial T echnological E nvironmental E conomic P olitical Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 10: Scenario: “The description of a possible future and the corresponding path to it.” ‒ Michel Godet Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 11: Get them to question their Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 12: Our Assumptions Encase us … in the Past. Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 13: Assumption #1: It’s impossible.

Slide 14: I’m too busy.

Slide 15: Assumption # 3: It’s irrelevant. Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 16: Is it like a Hollywood movie? Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 17: Or more like an interactive video game? Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 18: Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 19: “Has God put us here as contrarians, to languish in discontent until the world ends? Or has God placed us at the very heart and soul of civilization to bring forth an entirely different future, one that has never before been possible, through the power of Christ's Cross and Resurrection?” –Christian Futurist, Jay Gary, 2003

Slide 20: “The constructive forces that can keep afloat in the turbulent waters of globalization are those whose gaze is fixed firmly on the future rather than the past; those forces, in other words, that regard opening themselves up to the future as a core element in their identity and not as a threat.” –Athanasios N. Papathanasiou, 2004

Slide 21: “The only useful knowledge we have relates to the future.” – Bertrand de Jouvenel Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 22: The choices we make and the attitudes with which we approach life affect the path.

Slide 23: • Not predictions • Qualitative research • No more than 4 • Used to multiply options Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 26: A tool that projects cause and effect relationships between a driving force and the changes that could ripple out from it. Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 27: Participants discuss with their group the driving forces listed in a “Driving Forces” handout. After reading each description, they choose one driving force that their group wants to explore. Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 28: Participants draw a circle in the middle of their poster. The wheel begins with this circle where they write their group's selected driving force. Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 29: Participants are encouraged to think about the consequences that might flow from that driving force. What will likely be the effects of this driving force? Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 30: Participants select one first- order effect for brainstorming. What is likely to happen as a result? Continue this process until all three first-order effects have two second-order effects. Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 31: Repeat the procedure to get two third-order effects for each second-order effect. When the participants are done, their diagram should have 22 circles. Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 34: Participants are encouraged to discuss with their group any conclusions or overall lessons learned. They should jot these down so they can share them with the larger group. Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 35: • Organize and synthesize • Uncover the layers of change • Explore consequences • Generate creative ideas • Anticipate unforeseen consequences • Test ideas before implementation • Create scenarios everyone can understand Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 36: “Would that they were wise, that they understood this, that they would discern their future!” – Deuteronomy 32:29 Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Slide 38: Dr. Gregory S. Waddell How to Do greg@envoycm.org Second a Futures Wheel Go 10, www.SpiritOfOrganization.com 20, or 30 Order years out Effects Third Order Effects Use colored First markers to indicate Order serious threats and Effects promising opportunities Include some WAR DISASTERS wild cards COUPS MEDICAL DISCOVERIES OTHER FORECASTING TOOLS • Environmental scanning • Modeling • Scenario analysis • QUEST • Cross-impact matrices • Simulation • Delphic surveys • Brainstorming • Strategic Planning • Historical analogy Adapted from Coates, J. (2004). How to do a futures study. Washington, DC: Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc.

Slide 39: Works Cited Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter (Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM (Vol. 1,). Queensland, Australia: Foresight International. de Jouvenel, B. (1972). “On the nature of the future.” In A. Toffler (Ed.), The Futurists (pp. 277-83). NY: Random House. Marsh, N., McAllum, M., & Purcell, D. (2002). “Why Strategic Foresight?” In The Power of Standing in the Future. Victoria, Australia: Crown Content. McFarland, D., & Moore, J. (2003). Stakeholder's Conference on Strategic Planning. Arkansas State University. Accessed October 16, 2005 from http://asunews.astate.edu/Oct%2020%202003%20Stakeholders%20Conf.htm Michel Godet Cited in Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter (Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM (Vol. 1,). Queensland, Australia: Foresight International. Papathanasiou, A. N. (2004). “Anchored in the future, Globalization and church consciousness: An orthodox perspective.” The Ecumenical Review, 56(2), 226-233. Foundations for Strategic Foresight

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