Dr. Gregory Waddell

Overview
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Overview
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Overview
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Overview
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

“Acting while there is still a choice.”
–Bertrand de Jouvenal
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

“Planning from the future back to the present”
–Marsh, McAllum & Purcell
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

“Internal and external factors or trends that
will impact the institution.”
–McFarland & Moore, 2003
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Identifying Driving Forces
S ocial
T echnological
E nvironmental
E conomic
P olitical
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Scenario:
“The description of a possible future and the
corresponding path to it.”
‒ Michel Godet
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Get them to question their
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Our Assumptions Encase us …
in the Past.
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Assumption #1:
It’s impossible.

I’m too busy.

Assumption # 3:
It’s irrelevant.
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Is it like a Hollywood movie?
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Or more like an
interactive
video game?
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

“Has God put us here as contrarians, to
languish in discontent until the world ends?
Or has God placed us at the very heart and
soul of civilization to bring forth an entirely
different future, one that has never before
been possible, through the power of Christ's
Cross and Resurrection?”
–Christian Futurist, Jay Gary, 2003

“The constructive forces that can keep afloat in
the turbulent waters of globalization are those
whose gaze is fixed firmly on the future rather
than the past; those forces, in
other words, that regard opening
themselves up to the future as a
core element in their identity and
not as a threat.”
–Athanasios N. Papathanasiou, 2004

“The only useful knowledge we have
relates to the future.”
– Bertrand de Jouvenel
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

The choices we make and the
attitudes with which we approach life
affect the path.

• Not predictions
• Qualitative research
• No more than 4
• Used to multiply options
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

A tool that projects cause and effect
relationships between a driving force and
the changes that could ripple out from it.
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Participants discuss with their group the driving
forces listed in a “Driving Forces” handout.
After reading each description, they choose one
driving force that their group wants to explore.
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Participants draw a circle in the middle of their
poster. The wheel begins with this circle where
they write their group's selected driving force.
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Participants are
encouraged to think about
the consequences that
might flow from that
driving force. What will
likely be the effects of this
driving force?
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Participants select one first-
order effect for
brainstorming. What is likely
to happen as a result?
Continue this process until all
three first-order effects have
two second-order effects.
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Repeat the procedure to get two third-order
effects for each second-order effect. When the
participants are done, their diagram should have
22 circles.
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Participants are
encouraged to discuss
with their group any
conclusions or overall
lessons learned. They
should jot these down
so they can share
them with the larger
group.
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

• Organize and synthesize
• Uncover the layers of change
• Explore consequences
• Generate creative ideas
• Anticipate unforeseen consequences
• Test ideas before implementation
• Create scenarios everyone can understand
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

“Would that they were wise, that they
understood this, that they would discern their
future!” – Deuteronomy 32:29
Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Dr. Gregory S. Waddell How to Do
greg@envoycm.org
Second
a Futures Wheel Go 10,
www.SpiritOfOrganization.com 20, or 30
Order years out
Effects
Third
Order
Effects
Use colored
First markers to indicate
Order serious threats and
Effects promising
opportunities
Include some
WAR
DISASTERS wild cards
COUPS
MEDICAL
DISCOVERIES
OTHER FORECASTING TOOLS
• Environmental scanning • Modeling
• Scenario analysis • QUEST
• Cross-impact matrices • Simulation
• Delphic surveys • Brainstorming
• Strategic Planning • Historical analogy
Adapted from Coates, J. (2004). How to do a futures study. Washington, DC: Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc.

Works Cited
Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter
(Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM (Vol. 1,). Queensland,
Australia: Foresight International.
de Jouvenel, B. (1972). “On the nature of the future.” In A. Toffler (Ed.), The Futurists
(pp. 277-83). NY: Random House.
Marsh, N., McAllum, M., & Purcell, D. (2002). “Why Strategic Foresight?” In The
Power of Standing in the Future. Victoria, Australia: Crown Content.
McFarland, D., & Moore, J. (2003). Stakeholder's Conference on Strategic Planning.
Arkansas State University. Accessed October 16, 2005 from
http://asunews.astate.edu/Oct%2020%202003%20Stakeholders%20Conf.htm
Michel Godet Cited in Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures
Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter (Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM
(Vol. 1,). Queensland, Australia: Foresight International.
Papathanasiou, A. N. (2004). “Anchored in the future, Globalization and church
consciousness: An orthodox perspective.” The Ecumenical Review, 56(2), 226-233.
Foundations for Strategic Foresight