This is the first lecture in case study 2 ‘responses to climate change’ This is the first lecture which outlines overall policy progression from an international dimension. This is followed by lectures on scientific evidence and then renewable energy. There is a fieldtrip and an assessment. The assessment will be associated with the lectures by Paul Connor so they don't need to worry about it at this stage.
This lecture will proceed in the following format. Firstly some very brief outline of the basic science of climate change causes and impacts but emphasise sing the complex and non linear nature of the concept (so this is 1 and 2). Then move on to the political and policy evolution of the concept which will be the bulk of the lecture. The concluding remarks will emphasise that this lecture puts this case study in perspective and the rest of the case study will explore more local issues relating to policy, people and participations
Basic background on climate change and some of the science and factors. Talk through the diagram a little bit
Brief overview of the greenhouse effect relating to the previous slide
Quick overview of the main sources of emissions
The impacts – talk through the themes as the forecasted temperature increases
Emphasise the wicked nature of climate change what makes it different from today, uncertain and complex etc as outlined in the slide
The article for this quote is on moodle
Using the climate gate affair in 2009 to emphasise the contested nature of the and complex power dynamics that relate to climate change. So not only the science but who stands to win or lose. The vat reshuffling of resources that are occurring as a result of governmental and institutional responses to climate change
This slide designed to emphasise the role of knowledge in society and its relationship to climate change. The
Move on to discuss the policy arena – this is the format for the issues to be discussed.
A number of key issues in relation to the evolution of climate change policy – no need to read through all of these, just to emphasise that there is a progression with some major events
Again this is a time line of the main COP meetings
Kyoto protocol. Can go through the slide. Its very basic and emphaise that the KP is the central element of climate chagne policy but that it is now coming to an end and a new commitment is needed post 2012
Participants and the definition of annex I and annex II counctries
Graph showing national comitments
Outlines the Bali Road map
Outputs of Copenhagen
Cancun main agreements
Talk around this diagram which nicely outlines some of the positions of the various countries as well as associated stakeholders including aviation etc. This will be important to illustrate that this is going to happen whilst they are doing this module so it will be important for them to pay attention to these debates and think about the contrasts between the global and local issues etc
There are some normative assumptions associated with climate change policy. Here i outline 5 of them along with the the ‘reality’ of the situationThis is designed really to conclude the overview
Emphasise that this lecture has focused very much on the international evolution of climate change policy as well as illustrating the complexity of the debates involved. This will put the rest of the module in context as it explores local issues.
Im still working on this but will have it sorted for tomorrow
Latest debates in climate change
SD3003Climate Change Policy, Science, International Dimensions Dr Gregory Borne
Responses to Climate Change Case Study21. Overview of Climate change Policy, International Dimensions2. Scientific Evidence for Climate Change (Dr William Austin; Dr Rob Wilson)3. Renewable Energy (Dr Paul Connor) (Assessment Noon Friday 28th October)Fieldtrip Whitelee: 20th October
Introduction1. The Basics - What is climate change, causes, impacts2. Climate Science a paradigm shift, complexity and uncertainty3 Political Evolution
Greenhouse EffectEmissions from human activities are increasing the concentration of atmospheric GHGsEnhanced greenhouse effect occurs due to atmospheric buildup of GHGs that are released by human activitiesThe main sources of GHG emissions are: – Burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) – Mining activities – Industrial activities – Food production activities – Burning and exploiting forests – Land use change – Waste management
IMPACTS Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0C 1C 2C 3C 4C 5CFood Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Possible rising yields in some Falling yields in many high latitude regions developed regionsWater Significant decreases in water Small mountain glaciers Sea level rise threatens availability in many areas, including disappear – water Mediterranean and Southern Africa major cities supplies threatened in several areasEcosystems Extensive Damage to Rising number of species face extinction Coral ReefsExtremeWeather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat wavesRisk of Abrupt and Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt,Major Irreversible large-scale shifts in the climate systemChanges
What is Climate Change Wicked Problem• According to Lord Stern (Stern Report)• Climate change is an externality with a difference: – Global – Long-term – Uncertain – Potentially large and irreversible – “Climate change is the biggest market failure the world has ever seen” – This is what makes the development of effective and coordinated policies based on the same system a challenge – Similarities between the discourses of climate change and sustainable development
CLIMATE SCIENCE“Climate change science necessitates the ability to deal with uncertainty on several levels – not only uncertainty about the workings of the complex physical climate system, but also uncertainty with respect to social and cultural processes that mediate human response to changes within the system”- Rebich and Gautier (2005, p. 355 )
Uncertainty & Complexity in Climate Change Science• Climate change is a ‘big’ issue • Understanding • Predicting • Acting• The climate system is complex – ordered forcing + chaos• Understanding of individual components may be fairly good but composite effect is uncertain• Models can be constructed but have limitations• Complexity Uncertainty(See Hulme 2009)
Climate- Gate • Advocates and Sceptics • Results from uncertainty and complexity of climate science, YES? BUT ALSO • Results from vested interests and power dynamics in society- who stands to win and who stands to lose? • Funding of climate science? • 19th November 2009 UEA Russell Report - http://www.cce- review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT. pdf
Three way revolution in Science towards Climate ChangeDemands that are placed on scientific knowledge claims as they apply to investigations such as climate change:• To be warranted, knowledge must emerge from a respectful process in which sciences own internal social norms and practices are adhered to• To be validated, knowledge must also be subject to the scrutiny of an extended community of citizens who have legitimate stakes in the significance of what is being claimed• And to be empowered for use in public deliberation and policy- making, knowledge must be fully exposed to the proliferating new communication media by which such extended peer scrutiny takes place. (Hulme and Ravetz)(Source: BBC- Show Your Working What Climate Change Means http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/1 /hi/sci/tech/8388485.stm?ad=1)
3. Policy Evolution• Evolution of Climate Change Policy• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change• COP/MOP• Kyoto Protocol• Bali Road Map• Copenhagen
The COP/MOP negotiationsBrundtland Report United nations European DirectiveConcept of sustainable framework convention for an emission tradingDevelopment on climate change (UNFCCC) scheme (ETS) Phase 1 EU-ETS Phase 2 EU-ETS 1987 1988 1992 1997 2003 2005 2007 2008 2012 Toronto conference Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol First commitment Creation of IPCC Agreement entered into force of the Kyoto Protocol
Evolution of Climate Change Policy• 1988: UN sets up a scientific authority to vet the evidence on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).• 1990: First IPCC report says levels of man-made greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere and predicts these will cause global warming.• 1992: Rio Summit agrees to set up the UNFCCC, a vehicle for addressing climate change. The UNFCCC today has 194 parties.• 1997: UNFCCC members sign the Kyoto Protocol. Under its first commitment period, industrialised countries must cut emissions of six greenhouse gases so they are 5.2 percent lower than 1990 levels by the end of 2012.• 2001: The Kyoto Protocol, still in framework form, is abandoned by the United States, then the worlds biggest carbon emitter. The pact is saved by the European Union (EU), which pilots an agreement on its rulebook and mechanisms, opening the way to ratification.• 2005: Kyoto Protocol takes effect on February 16.• 2006: China overtakes the United States as the worlds No. 1 carbon emitter.• 2007: 4th Assessment Report by the IPCC says evidence for global warming is "unequivocal" and forecasts warming of 1.8-4.0 degrees C (3.2-7.2 degrees F) by 2100 and an unquantifiable rise in sea levels. Nobel Peace Prize is awarded jointly to IPCC and former US vice president Al Gore UNFCCC parties agree a "Bali Road Map" for negotiating a post- 2012 climate treaty.• 2009: Copenhagen summit, intended to seal a post-2012 deal, nearly ends in disaster. To save face, a small group of leaders sets a broad goal of limiting warming to 2 C (3.6 F) and sketches financial provisions for poor countries. But it identifies no staging posts for reaching the target, nor requires emissions curbs to be binding.• 2010: Climate change retreats as a political priority after the trauma of Copenhagen, economic problems in rich countries and attacks on the IPCC over flaws in the 4th Assessment Report.• Nov 29-Dec 10: Annual conference of the UNFCCC in Cancun sets sights on incremental approach, with progress on climate finance, technology transfer and deforestation.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC• Created as a result of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit 1992)• Aim -Stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system• Not Legally Binding• Calls for the creation of protocols• Established the Kyoto Protocol• Parties to the Conference (COP) have met annually since 1995
Conference of the Parties (COP) Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP)1995 – COP 1, The Berlin Mandate1996 – COP 2, Geneva, Switzerland1997 – COP 3, The Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change1998 – COP 4, Buenos Aires, Argentina1999 – COP 5, Bonn, Germany2000 – COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands2001 – COP 6 Bonn, Germany2001 – COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco2002 – COP 8, New Delhi, India2003 – COP 9, Milan, Italy2004 – COP 10, Buenos Aires, Argentina2005 – COP 11/MOP 1, Montreal, Canada2006 – COP 12/MOP 2, Nairobi, Kenya2007 – COP 13/MOP 3, Bali, Indonesia2008 – COP 14/MOP 4, Poznao, Poland2009 – COP 15/MOP 5, Copenhagen, Denmark2010 – COP 16/MOP 6, Cancún, Mexico2011 – COP 17/MOP 7, Durban, South Africa2012 – COP 18/MOP 8
Kyoto Protocol (COP3)The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions .These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.The Kyoto mechanismsUnder the Treaty, countries must meet their targets primarily through national measures. However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an additional means of meeting their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms.• The Kyoto mechanisms are:• Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market"• Clean development mechanism (CDM)• Joint implementation (JI).
Participation in the Kyoto Protocol December 2010 Green = Countries that have signed and ratified the treaty (Annex I & II countries in dark green) Grey = Countries that have not yet decided Brown = No intention to ratify at this stage Annex I = Industrialised Countries and Countries in Transition Annex II = Developing Countries
Bali Road Map (2007-COP 13)At the 13th session of the United Nations Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) in Bali in December 2007,developed and developing country governments from around the world adopted the “Bali Road Map” consisting of several decisions that reflected various tracks essential to reaching a secure climate future. The UNFCCC negotiation process was assigned to a new subsidiary body – the AWG-LCA - which focused on five building blocks:• Shared vision• Adaptation• Mitigation• Technology transfer• Financing• Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) was also added to the negotiation agendaA similar subsidiary body had been established in 2005 upon the Kyoto Protocol’s entry into force - the AWG-KP - to negotiate binding post-2012
Copenhagen (COP15/MOP5) OUTPUT – The Copenhagen Accord• Global warming: The Accord agrees that global temperature rise should stay below 2C (3.6F). A tangible achievement but less ambitious than some would have hoped.• Reducing greenhouse gases: China and the United states Pledge to reduce carbon emissions. BUT he treaty did not include any numerical targets for cutting pollution.• Measuring emissions reductions: China refused to accept international monitoring but agreed countries must measure their own emissions and report to the outside world.• Finance to help developing nations adapt: Rich nations will provide 30bn dollars in total by 2012 and 100bn per annum by 2020 to help poor countries adapt to climate change but there is no detail on where this money will come from.• Forests: The Accord will set up a new fund that pays poor nations not to chop down trees, but there is no timetable and little money in place.• Technology transfer: The world agreed to share information on new technology that will help countries adapt to climate change and generate clean energy but again it is not clear when this will happen.• Carbon markets: Markets are mentioned as a "cost effective way" to cut emissions, but companies will need much more concrete moves before they are confident to invest in trading carbon.Controversial – Debates of the overall outputs of the meeting draws into the focus climate change policy based on the Kyoto Protocol
Cancun (COP16/MOP6)The Cancún Agreements• The package of decisions is seen by the UN as setting all governments more firmly on the path towards a low-emissions future and supporting enhanced action on climate change. Highlights of the agreements include:• Objective: agreement to peak emissions and overall 2 degree target to limit temperature rise;• Emissions: bringing details of what developed and developing countries are doing to tackle climate change, promised in Copenhagen, into the UN system so they can be assessed;• Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable (MRV): agreement on a system so we know how countries are living up to their promises to take action on emissions;• Long-term finance: establishment of Green Climate Fund to help developing countries go low carbon and adapt to climate impacts;• Deforestation: agreement on REDD+ framework to slow, halt and reverse destruction of trees and agree the rules for delivering it and for monitoring progress;• Technology / Adaptation: set up the mechanisms to help developing countries access low carbon technology, and adapt to climate change.
Durban (COP 17/MOP7)28th November -9th December •Global and local connections •Occurring whilst you are taking this module •Follow the debates •Who are the main stakeholders? •What are the main controversies? •What are the outcomes?
Questioning Established Norms Climate policy1. Essentially a problem of sharing costs – Actually about decisions on policy, investment, risks and returns driven more by politics than by economics2. Led by the industrialised world with others following – Actually fractured action with emerging economies accelerating3. Energy efficiency is an easy ‘free lunch’ – Good for the economy but not simple4. Carbon pricing to drive low carbon investment – Actually has a much more complex role5. Technology will save us! – Innovation is a result of good policy, hard to force efficiently and slow to emerge
Global and Local Connections A human Issue Environmental/Social Justice Local Engagement Equality Power Module will Explore National and Local Responses Renewable Energy –Whitelee Wind farm Local Communities- Buckhaven(Climate change protest outside the United States embassy inJakarta in December 2009)
Questions to Think About• Why is climate change such a complex phenomena?• What is difference between climate science and traditional science?• Why is climate change so controversial?• Climate change policy fundamentally exposes the complex nature of knowledge in society. HOW?• What are the connections between global policy and local issues?
Conclusion• Climate Policy is Complex and Fractured• Many competing interests• Trade offs between, environmental, social and economic imperatives• Exposes the flaws in the production of knowledge and its multiple and contested uses in society• Embodies the complexities of sustainable development
Readings/ResourcesBorne, G., (2010) A Framework for Sustainable Global Development and Effective Governance of risk, New York, Edward Mellen PressHulme, M. (2009) Why we disagree about climate change , Understanding, Controversy, Inaction and opportunity, Cambridge, Cambridge University PressStern, N. (2006). "Stern Review on The Economics of Climate Change (pre-publication edition). Executive Summary". HM Treasury, London. http://www.webcitation.org/5nCeyEYJr Accessed 10/10/08Foresight, International Dimensions of Climate Change (2011) Final Project Report., The Government Office for Science, London. www.bis.gov.uk/.../foresight/.../international-dimensions/11-1042-international-dimensions-of-climate-change accessed 10/06/11Rebich, S., Gautier, C. 2005. Concept mapping to reveal prior knowledge and conceptual change in a mock summit course on global climate change. Journal of Geoscience Education. 53(4). 355-365 (on moodle)Climate Change Policy Time Line http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/carbonwatch/2010/05/timeline-the-road-to-climate- change-policy.htmlInternational Law and Climate change Policy -http://untreaty.un.org/cod/avl/ha/ccc/ccc.htmlBBC- Show Your Working What Climate Change Means http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/mpapps/pagetools/print/news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8388485.stm?ad=1)Copenhagen Accord - http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_15/copenhagen_accord/items/5262.phpKyoto Protocol - http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.phpClimate Change a Summary of Science http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2010/4294972962.pdfRussell Report - The Independent Emails Review Climate Change Email http://www.cce-review.org/pdf/FINAL%20REPORT.pdf accessed 04/02/11