The Demography of Texas: Population Characteristics and Trends Nonprofits Need to Know<br />Texas Nonprofit Summit<br />Se...
Growing States, 2000-2010<br />2<br />15.7% of numerical change in U.S. <br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Ce...
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009<br />3<br />
Texas Business-Cycle Index<br />4<br />
Texas Total Nonfarm EmploymentQuarterly Growth<br />5<br />
Texas Residential Permits and Mortgage Rate<br />6<br />
Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009<br />Source:	U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates<br />7<br />
Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity<br />8<br />52% of all migrants were internationa...
Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population<br />Source: Population Division, U....
Estimated internationalmigration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population<br />Source: Population Division...
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, <br />2000 and 2010<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count 					...
Total Population by County, 2010<br />12<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts<br />
Change of the Total Population by County, 2000-2010<br />13<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000  and  2010 Census Counts<...
Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010<br />14<br />Population increase for <br />Texas was 20.6%...
Numeric change in Hispanic population, by county, 2000-2010<br />15<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census ...
Numeric change in Asian population, by county, 2000-2010<br />16<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Cou...
17<br />Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010<br />Source: Texas State Data Center Population Project...
18<br />Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010<br />Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projec...
19<br />Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2009 Estimated<br />Percent 65 Years and Older <br />Population 65 Y...
Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older <br />by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected<br />2000 Count<br />2040 Proje...
Projected Population Among Older Texans<br />21<br />Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-20...
Projection of Ethnicity of Texas PopulationAged 65 Years and Older, 2000 to 2040<br />22<br />Source: Texas State Data Cen...
Percent of population that is foreign born, 2005-2009<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year S...
Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009<br />Source...
Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 200...
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040<br />Year<br />Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections...
Projected Population for Texas Counties, 2040<br />Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 population projections. Migration...
Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040<br />
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario<br />29<br />Projected Racial a...
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than very well by state, 2009<br />Source: American Community ...
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2009<br />Source: American Community Survey, 2009<br />
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2006-2009<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Commun...
Percent of population aged 25 years and older with high school or equivalent degree or higher, 2005-2009<br />Source: U.S....
Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009<br />34<br />Source: American Community Surve...
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040<br />Source: Texas State Data Center. 2...
Percent of Texans Reporting a Self-Care<br />Limitation or Any Limitation by Age, 2007<br />Source:  Texas State Data Cent...
Projected Growth of the 65 Year Old and Over Population Reporting a Self-Care Limitation for Texas, 2000-2040(Assuming Con...
Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008<br />38<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Popu...
Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010<br />39<br />Physician Rate Change, <br />2000-2010  <br />Physician Rate<br />Sourc...
Physicians per 100,000 by<br />Metro & Border Status of Counties, 2009<br />Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates.De...
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040<br />41<br />Source: Office of the State Demographer pro...
Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity in Texas by County, 2008<br />42<br />Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: ...
Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040<br />43<br />Source: Office of the State ...
Demographics and Destiny<br />44<br />
Contact <br />Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530<br />Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us<br />Internet: http://osd....
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Demography of Texas with Dr. Lloyd Potter

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  • Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010.
  • The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.
  • Migration into Texas has made very significant contributions to our population growth for the past few decades. International migration is estimated to have made significant contributions this decade. Generally, international migration is regulated and tends not to vary substantially from year to year. Internal (state-to-state) migration is estimated to have increased significantly in the middle of this decade and has remained relatively high. However, with the economic downturn, internal migration into Texas is likely slowed. Internal migration is not regulated by the government and is largely driven by the presence or absence of jobs and economic opportunity. Therefore, internal migration tends to be variable and dependent upon economic fluctuations.
  • This map demonstrates DOMESTIC, or internal, migration made up largely of persons who are citizens or legal residents of the United States. International migrants are not included on this map. Generally, western counties had U.S. residents and citizens moving out and the areas around urban cores had U.S. residents and citizens moving in. Note that Dallas and Harris county have net out domestic migration indicating that persons from these counties may be moving to more suburban adjacent counties.
  • This map demonstrates in migration of international migrants. Domestic migrants are not included on this map. It is estimated that international migrants made significant contributions to population growth in large urban counties and along the border. Note that Dallas and Harris counties experienced substantial international migration resulting in a positive net in-migration to those counties.
  • As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other. In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent).
  • The counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated.
  • 175 counties gained population while 79 lost population over the decade.
  • This map demonstrates the percent change in population over a ten year period. Percent change is one indicator of the speed of population change but is not always an indicator of the absolute change in numbers. For example, county A with 100 people added 100 people, and has a 100% increase. Meanwhile county B with 1,000 people added 100 people and has a 10% increase. County A is growing at a more rapid rate than county B, but in terms of total numbers, they grew by the same amount. The State of Texas grew by 20.6% between 2000 and 2010.
  • This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic Anglo is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population.
  • This Texas population pyramid indicates that the portion of the population that is non-Hispanic Anglo is generally older than the other racial/ethnic groups. The portion of the population that is of Hispanic descent is comparatively young. This is also true for the African American portion of the population.
  • Texas is also aging. The age structure of many of the more rural counties are becoming older compared to more urban counties. While many of the urban counties have smaller percentages of their population in the older ages, the actual numbers of people aged 65+ are increasingly concentrated in urban counties and the south border.
  • The Texas State Data Center population projections indicate significant growth in the number of persons aged 65-74, with slightly less growth for the population aged 75-84 and relevant, but less growth for the 85 plus population.
  • This graph represents variable population projections for the State under different migration scenarios. The base (brown dashed line) is the assumption of no migration. Under this scenario, the State will grow as a function of natural increase (births-deaths). The ½ 1990-2000 scenario (the red split line) is the most conservative. The 2000-2004 and 2000-2007 scenarios reflect estimates of migration for those two periods and suggest more rapid population growth.Under any scenario, even no migration, Texas will continue to grow.
  • Texas State Data Center projections indicate that the most significant growth will continue to occur in the major metropolitan areas and along the southern border area.
  • The Texas State Data Center population projections indicate the trends in population growth and decline will continue. Major metropolitan areas will continue to increase as will the southern border region. More rural, less populated counties will continue to lose population.
  • The 2000-2007 migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015.
  • Applying rates of self-care limitations to the projected population aged 65 years and older indicates a growing number of persons with self-care limitations in the future.
  • Data on this map about physicians licensed to practice in Texas are from the Texas Medical Board. Some rural counties do not have any practicing physicians. The more urban counties appear to have relatively high ratios of physicians to population aged 65+.
  • The map on the right demonstrates changes in the number of physicians per 1,000 population over the decade. Green counties experienced fewer physicians per population over the decade (about 90 counties). Blue counties are those that experienced an increase in the number of physicians per 1,000 population over the decade (144). There were 20 counties that did not change in the number of physicians per population over the decade. These were counties that did not have any physicians.
  • Estimates of physicians per 100,000 by metropolitan and border status indicate the availability of physicians is greatest in non-border metropolitan areas and least in non-metropolitan border counties.
  • Texas is growing – with more people being added than in any other state we will add 3 if not 4 additional seats to our representation in the U.S. Congress.Texas is becoming more urban. Many rural counties are losing population. Urbanized metropolitan areas have been growing dramatically over the decade.Texas is becoming more diverse – much of our growth is attributable to growth of the Hispanic population.
  • The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.
  • Demography of Texas with Dr. Lloyd Potter

    1. 1. The Demography of Texas: Population Characteristics and Trends Nonprofits Need to Know<br />Texas Nonprofit Summit<br />September 8, 2011<br />Austin, TX<br />
    2. 2. Growing States, 2000-2010<br />2<br />15.7% of numerical change in U.S. <br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count. <br />
    3. 3. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009<br />3<br />
    4. 4. Texas Business-Cycle Index<br />4<br />
    5. 5. Texas Total Nonfarm EmploymentQuarterly Growth<br />5<br />
    6. 6. Texas Residential Permits and Mortgage Rate<br />6<br />
    7. 7. Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009<br />Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates<br />7<br />
    8. 8. Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity<br />8<br />52% of all migrants were international<br />(933,083 migrants) <br />(848,702 migrants )<br />Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau<br />
    9. 9. Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population<br />Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center <br />9<br />
    10. 10. Estimated internationalmigration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population<br />Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center <br />10<br />
    11. 11. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, <br />2000 and 2010<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count <br />
    12. 12. Total Population by County, 2010<br />12<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts<br />
    13. 13. Change of the Total Population by County, 2000-2010<br />13<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts<br />
    14. 14. Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010<br />14<br />Population increase for <br />Texas was 20.6%<br /> during this period<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts <br />
    15. 15. Numeric change in Hispanic population, by county, 2000-2010<br />15<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts <br />
    16. 16. Numeric change in Asian population, by county, 2000-2010<br />16<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts <br />
    17. 17. 17<br />Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010<br />Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009<br />
    18. 18. 18<br />Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010<br />Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009<br />
    19. 19. 19<br />Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2009 Estimated<br />Percent 65 Years and Older <br />Population 65 Years and Older <br />Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Estimates.<br />Mapsproduced by the Texas State Data Center.<br />
    20. 20. Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older <br />by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected<br />2000 Count<br />2040 Projection<br /><11.9<br />12.0 – 14.9<br />15.0 – 19.9<br />20.0 or more<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count.Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.<br />Mapsproduced by the Texas State Data Center.<br />20<br />
    21. 21. Projected Population Among Older Texans<br />21<br />Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.<br />
    22. 22. Projection of Ethnicity of Texas PopulationAged 65 Years and Older, 2000 to 2040<br />22<br />Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.<br />
    23. 23. Percent of population that is foreign born, 2005-2009<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009<br />
    24. 24. Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009<br />
    25. 25. Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009<br />
    26. 26. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040<br />Year<br />Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections <br />26<br />
    27. 27. Projected Population for Texas Counties, 2040<br />Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 population projections. Migration scenario 2 (2000-2007). <br />
    28. 28. Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040<br />
    29. 29. Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario<br />29<br />Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040<br />
    30. 30. Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than very well by state, 2009<br />Source: American Community Survey, 2009<br />
    31. 31. Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2009<br />Source: American Community Survey, 2009<br />
    32. 32. Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2006-2009<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2006-2009<br />
    33. 33. Percent of population aged 25 years and older with high school or equivalent degree or higher, 2005-2009<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009<br />
    34. 34. Educational attainment of persons 25+ years of age by ethnicity, Texas, 2009<br />34<br />Source: American Community Survey, 2009<br />
    35. 35. Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040<br />Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.<br />
    36. 36. Percent of Texans Reporting a Self-Care<br />Limitation or Any Limitation by Age, 2007<br />Source: Texas State Data Center tabulation of U.S. Bureau of the Census American Community Survey, 2007.<br />
    37. 37. Projected Growth of the 65 Year Old and Over Population Reporting a Self-Care Limitation for Texas, 2000-2040(Assuming Constant Age/Sex/Race/Ethnic Rates of Disability)<br />37<br />Source: Office of the State Demographer. 2000-2004 Projection Scenario.<br />
    38. 38. Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008<br />38<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates. <br /> Texas Medical Board.<br />Mapproduced by the Texas State Data Center.<br />
    39. 39. Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010<br />39<br />Physician Rate Change, <br />2000-2010 <br />Physician Rate<br />Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Texas Medical Board. <br />Mapsproduced by the Texas State Data Center.<br />
    40. 40. Physicians per 100,000 by<br />Metro & Border Status of Counties, 2009<br />Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates.Department of State Health Services. Health Professions Resource Center Database.<br />40<br />
    41. 41. Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040<br />41<br />Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections <br />
    42. 42. Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity in Texas by County, 2008<br />42<br />Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: National Diabetes Surveillance System. Available online at: http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/DDTSTRS/default.aspx. <br />
    43. 43. Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040<br />43<br />Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2010<br />
    44. 44. Demographics and Destiny<br />44<br />
    45. 45. Contact <br />Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530<br />Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us<br />Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us<br />Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.<br />45<br />
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