Top 10 green building megatrends

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Top 10 green building megatrends

  1. 1. Green Building MegaTrends What You Need to Know To Succeed in 2012 ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  2. 2. Green Building MegaTrendsUS Trends Global Trends • Green building growth to • Global green building rebound movement continues to grow • Federal momentum slowed • LEED system in 161 countries • Action switches to state/local level • Green rating systems converge • LEED-EBOM will gain further • Performance disclosure momentum • Global carbon ratings • Water issues will continue to • Solar power stalls • Incentives reduced grow in importance • Zero-net-energy buildings • Building management goes into The Cloud ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  3. 3. Green Building Growth Rebounds• Overall growth only +3% in 2011 • 10,000 projects certified; 30,000 registered• 2010: Annual LEED-EBOM certified area exceeds LEED– NC for the first time • 1284 certified EBOM projects (but typical area is 300+ KSF) • 44% of US market (by floor area) • 42% Gold and Platinum• 2011: LEED-EBOM project registrations up 18%• 2011: Total LEED-EBOM certified project area exceeds cumulative LEED-NC area for 1st time • 675 million SF certified in EBOM (vs. 649 million in NC)• Source: Green Building and Market Impact Report, 2011, by Rob Watson, http://www.greenbiz .com/research/report/2011/11/07/green-building-market-and-impact-report-2011 ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  4. 4. LEED-EBOM vs. LEED-NC• 2010: Annual LEED-EBOM certified area exceeds LEED– NC for the first time • 1284 certified EBOM projects (but typical area is 300 KSF) • 44% of US market (by floor area) • 42% Gold and Platinum• 2011: LEED-EBOM project registrations up 18%• 2011: Total LEED-EBOM certified project area exceeds cumulative LEED-NC area for 1st time • 675 million SF certified in EBOM (vs. 649 million in NC) • Non-US growth is greater than US growth in 2011 • Global movement in the property sector toward certification ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  5. 5. Federal Momentum Slows• 2012 DoD authorization: No money for LEED• Federal government is broke!• GSA Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPC) spending continues • http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/financing/espcs.html• Solar scandals hurt support for other initiatives• State/local level spending, policy initiatives continue ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  6. 6. LEED-EBOM Is Dominant• LEED EBOM surpasses LEED NC annually in 2010• LEED EBOM cumulatively greater than NC in 2011• Green rebranding may move to other sectors • Retail • Hotels • Healthcare• Clinton/Obama Better Buildings Initiative • $4 billion investment deal announced December • http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/44/post/president-obama-calls-on-bill-clinton -to-help-unveil-energy-efficiency-program-for-office-buildings/2011/12/01/gIQAzF17IO_blog.html ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  7. 7. Water Gains Importance• Continued droughts along southern tier of US • CA: 20% less by 2020 (vs.2008)• LEED requires minimum 20% savings vs. code• Rainwater capture meets multiple goals• Graywater gets into the code• Blackwater treatment advances ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  8. 8. Zero Net Energy Buildings• NREL building has huge impact• HOK/Weidt Group demonstrates cost-effectiveness • http://netzerocourt.com/• Needs low EUI first (30 to 35kBTU/sq.ft./year)• Best for 2-4 story buildings• Business case is solid • 2011 BD&C Magazine: • http://www.bdcnetwork.com/2011-white-paper-zero-and-net-zero-energy-buildings-homes• Bullitt Foundation, Seattle • http://bullitt.org/news/the-bullitt-foundation-announces-plans-for-the-cascadia-center-for-sustainable-design-and-construction ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  9. 9. Global Green Building Movement• >90 national Green Building Councils• LEED projects registered in 161 countries • 44% of total registrations outside US in 2011 • 700 projects certified• Convergence toward common carbon metrics and common rating system concerns among “Big 3” • LEED • BREEAM • Green Star ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  10. 10. Performance Disclosure• European Union Energy Performance in Buildings Directive (EPBD) and Display Energy Certificates (DECs) already in place• Australia requires all commercial buildings >20,000 sf to disclose energy use• Seattle requires disclosure • >10,000 sq.ft. (commercial/multi-family) • April 1, 2012 effective date • http://www.seattle.gov/dpd/GreenBuilding/OurProgram/EnergyBenchmarkingDisclosure/Overview/• Global movement • Politically easy move for cities to take • Spurs owners to take action on carbon emissions ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  11. 11. Global Carbon Ratings• Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark (GRESB) • www.nilskok.com• Global property management companies• Responsible property investing• Australia most advanced ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  12. 12. Solar Power Stalls• Solar costs coming down, BUT • May be hard to crack $3000/KW ($3/watt) installed in commercial sector • Argues for more focus on large-scale solar• Government incentives reduced • Feed-in tariffs were most effective above $0.25/kWh• Focus shifting back to energy efficiency• Other side: Renewables goals, solar power stations ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  13. 13. Building Management in the Cloud• Global companies invest in building management software • E.g., IBM, Siemens, JCI, etc.• Tied in with wireless sensors and controls• Shortage of trained operators drives change• ‘Intelligent building management’ no longer an oxymoron ©2012 Yudelson Associates
  14. 14. Discussion? For further information: See Jerry’s website www.greenbuildconsult.comOr follow Twitter: @jerryyudelson ©2012 Yudelson Associates

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