What happened in Durban? 28th of November – 11th of December 2011 Green Drinks Hangzhou 9th of January 2012 By Lara Esser
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-‐moon: • future of our planet is at stake and the survival of some naAons • second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol important, so no gap in climate policy
Who aDended? • RepresentaAves of the worlds governments, internaAonal organizaAons and civil society • 12,400 parAcipants • 5,400 government oﬃcials • 5,800 UN body representaAves, internaAonal governmental and civil society organizaAons • 1,200 members of media And why?
Conference Sessions • The 17th Conference of the ParAes (COP) of UNFCCC • The 7th Conference of the ParAes serving as the MeeAng of the ParAes to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP) – The 35th session of the Subsidiary Body for ImplementaAon (SBI), – The 35th session of the Subsidiary Body for ScienAﬁc and Technological Advice (SBSTA), – The Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I ParAes under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-‐ KP) – The Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-‐term CooperaAve AcAon under the ConvenAon (AWG-‐LCA.) • The Conference was hosted by the Government of South Africa and took place at the InternaAonal ConvenAon Centre (ICC) & Durban ExhibiAon Centre (DEC). Just joking!
Let’s start from the beginning… Part A • Status of our planet • Climate change, and why we should we care? • Concept of Sustainable Development Part B • History of UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol • Clean Development Mechanism • Durban results
Future of our Planet More land More water Coal, gas, Hydropower nuclear? Renewable More energy Wind, solar energy Energy eﬃciency Biomass More land More ﬁnancial PopulaAon More water support growth More food More intensive land use More clean water More need for Less free Less natural natural ecosystem environment resources services
Issues + Climate Change Water Least Developed Countries Food Pop Energy Emerging countries Money Developed countries Developing countries Land Principle: Common but diﬀerenVated responsibility Principle: Polluter pays
Least Good to know… Developed Countries • G77 (previously), now: Emerging Developed • Africa group, or Southern countries Money countries Africa Development Community, Economic Community of Central Africa States … Developing countries • BASIC = Brazil, South Africa, India, China ALBA = Bolivarian Alliance for • LDC Group = Least the Peoples of Our America Developed Countries EIG = Environmental Integrity • AOSIS = Alliance of Small Group Islands States CoaliVon of Rainforest NaVons
Concept of Sustainable Development Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future genera8ons to meet their own needs.
Climate Change • Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth” (ﬁlm) • “Global warming” OR “climate change” • Globally, 14 of the past 15 years have been the warmest on record. • Global average temperature rise puts approximately 20-‐30% of plant and animal species at increased risk of exAncAon • 1000 of 1100 glaciers researched are receding • Floods and droughts will become more common • Rainfall in Ethiopia, where droughts are already common, could decline by 10% over the next 50 years • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that by 2020, 75-‐250 million people in Africa will be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change. • ANIMAL AND PLANT EXTINCTION RISKS, INCREASED SEA LEVEL • MORE EXTREME EVENTS (ﬂoods and droughts)
Climate and Forests Tropical forest destrucAon is responsible for up to 1/5 of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – more than emissions from all the world’s cars, planes and trains put together. Stop forest destrucVon! Forests are “carbon sinks”
India: Sea Level Rise and People in Sundarbans. "Over the past twenty years, I have lost my house about seven to eight Vmes".
Climate change means more extreme events : e.g. higher precipitaVon, i.e. rain which can lead to ﬂooding See: Thailand 2011 And you’re not here…
Climate Change and Economy • Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, causing a sharp upswing in damages. • In 2005, natural catastrophes caused USD 220 billion worth of damage worldwide. • The German InsAtute for Economic Research esAmates that if nothing is done to curb greenhouse gas emissions, annual economic damages could reach USD 20 trillion by 2100. • If climate protecAon policies were to be implemented NOW, this could limit the temperature increase to 2°C and eliminate more than half of the damages; by 2100 this would avoid USD 12 trillion in annual damages by spending USD 3 trillion per year on climate protecAon.
Part B • History of UNFCCC • Kyoto Protocol • Clean Development Mechanism • Durban results
History 1992 – 2012 20 years! • 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – “global warming” due to human acAviAes – United NaAons Framework ConvenAon for Climate Change (UNFCCC) – Framework for acAon to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate system – Non-‐binding commitment by industrialized countries (Annex I of UNFCCC) to reduce emissions of GHG to 1990 levels by 2000. • 1994 UNFCCC into force
• 1995 1st Conference of ParAes (COP) – annual meeAng of the countries who raAﬁed UNFCCC – NegoAaAon of a Protocol to set Aghter legally binding targets for reducing GHG emission • 1997 3rd COP in Kyoto – Industrialized Annex B countries reduce emissions by on average 5.2% below 1990 levels over ﬁrst commitment period 2008-‐2012, with speciﬁc targets for each country – 3 ﬂexible market-‐based mechanisms were designed: • InternaAonal Emissions Trading (ET) • Joint ImplementaAon (JI) • Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) • 2001 Marrakech Accords operaAonalized CDM – Established ExecuAve Board to oversee CDM and “project cycle” • 2005 Kyoto Protocol entered into force – raAﬁed by all Annex B countries except the US
Flexible Market Mechanism -‐ CDM – Idea: a country can purchase UN-‐accredited carbon credits from other countries to reduce GHG emissions in their own territory – Carbon credits = “CerVﬁed Emission ReducVons”, CERs) come from emission reducAon or sequestraAon projects in developing countries without emission targets. – Win-‐win situaVon • developing countries can aDract investment + technology • industrialized countries can reduce GHG cheaper
CDM Projects • Developed countries that are part of the Kyoto Protocol are legally bound to reduce their GHG emissions • They can pay for carbon credits from projects in developing countries (“CDM projects”) that will reduce GHG emissions • I.e. GHG emissions are reduced/saved in a developed country but count towards reaching the target in a developing country • To be registered under the CDM, a project has to be ‘addi8onal’ and sustainable development Sewage / Bio-‐fuels Heavy Industry wastewater Forestry
No more binding Rio 1992 – Earth emission Summit -‐ reducAon UNFCCC targets 31.12.2012 End Kyoto 1995 ? of Kyoto COP1 Protocol 20 years on June 2012 Rio20+ Durban 2011 CLIMATE CHANGE 2005 Kyoto conAnues Protocol into COP17 force unAl 2012 Copenhagen Bali 2007 AcAon 2009 Plan towards COP15 Copenhagen
MeeVngs • 2007 Bali, COP13, CMP3 – Bali AcAon Plan – Focus on key elements of long-‐term cooperaAon: miAgaAon, adaptaAon, ﬁnance, technology, shared vision – Roadmap in Bali set a deadline for concluding negoAaAons in December 2009 in Copenhagen • 2008 Poznan, Poland
Copenhagen, Denmark • December 2009 • High expectaAons, great disappointment, hoping to achieve ambiAous legally binding targets for countries • Disputes over transparency and process, e.g. informal discussions, e.g. including China but excluding US Adverts with heads of state placed all over Copenhagen Airport by the global coaliAon, tcktcktck.org & Greenpeace calling on world leaders to secure a fair, ambiAous and binding deal at the Copenhagen Climate Summit.
Copenhagen 2009 ProjecAon on the Danish Parliament building where more than 100 heads of state were due to dine with the Danish Queen during the Copenhagen climate summit. Greenpeace China projects a message onto Yong Ding Gate
Cancun, Mexico 2010 • Cancun Agreements • Along both UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol tracks • Under convenAon track: – deep cuts in global emissions to limit average temp. rise to 2C – took note of targets and naAonally appropriate miAgaAon acAons (NAMAs), decisions addressed deforestaAon,… – Technology Mechanism – Green Climate Fund (GCF), jointly mobilize US$100 billion per year by 2020 – Recognized commitment to provide US$ 30 billion ﬁnance 2010-‐2012 by developed countries • Under Protocol track: – ensure no gap between 1st/2nd Kyoto commitment period
ExpectaVons by NGOs • Ensure a peak in GHG emissions by 2015 • Ensure that the Kyoto Protocol conVnues & provide a mandate for a comprehensive legally binding deal (KP2) • AdopAon of a roadmap towards a wider global climate change regime • Deliver the necessary ﬁnance to tackle climate change, e.g. the Green Climate Fund as agreed in Cancun – Fund will receive money from rich countries and channel it to adaptaAon acAons and clean technology in developing countries • Set up a framework for protecVng forests in developing countries • Ensure global cooperaVon on technology and energy ﬁnance • Ensure internaAonal transparency in assessing and monitoring country commitments and acAons
Kyoto Protocol – With or without you…? Kyotos ﬁrst round of emissions pledges expires awer 2012. The promises apply only to rich countries, not to developing ones, nor do they concern the United States, which boycoxed Kyoto in 2001. No Kyoto, then UNFCCC with only have a voluntary approach for taming carbon emissions. Kyoto seen by developing countries as a treaty that represents solidarity between rich and poor Discussion: “Rich” Kyoto countries are refusing to sign on for fresh commitments, saying this would be unfair if far bigger emiDers, accounVng for more than half of all carbon polluVon, get oﬀ the hook. Chances of a deal lie in a proposal made by the European Union, which has oﬀered to sign up for a second round of commitments in return for a "roadmap" to a new, legally binding pact encompassing the big carbon polluters, notably China and the United States.
Durban, South Africa 2011 • 3 UNFCCC meeAngs beforehand – Bangkok, Bonn and Panama City • 28.11.-‐11.12.2011 • COP 17 and CMP7 • Comments: – “signiﬁcant poliAcal breakthrough” – “marathon sessions” – Results disappoinAng, lixle progress made on countries emission targets – Reaching consensus on a more inclusive agreement that incorporates obligaAons not only for industrialized but developing countries too ambiAous
What was decided? • 19 COP decisions • 17 CMP decisions and approval of a number of conclusions by subsidiary bodies – 2nd commitment period under Kyoto Protocol – Decision on long-‐term cooperaVve acVon under the ConvenVon (UNFCCC) – Launch of new process towards an agreed outcome with legal force applicable to all parVes of the ConvenVon – OperaVonalizaVon of the Green Climate Fund (will distribute US$100bn per yr by 2020 from public and private funds for miVgaVon acVons)
Decisions were made… COP 17 Decisions CMP7 Decisions • Establishment of an Ad Hoc Working Group • Outcome of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the • A report of an Ad Hoc Working Group Further Commitments for Annex I ParAes • Launching of the Green Climate Fund under KP • Technology ExecuAve Commixee • Land use, land-‐use change and forestry • NaAonal adaptaAon plans • Emissions trading and project based • Work programme on mechanisms – impacts, vulnerability and adaptaAon to climate • GHG , sectors and source categories, and change methodological issues – Loss and damage • InformaAon on potenAal env., economic and • Forum on response measures social consequences of tools, policies, • Financial mechanism for LDCs measures & methodologies • Amendment to Annex I • Report of AdaptaAon Fund & Review • Report by GEF (Global Environmental Facility) • Guidance on CDM (+CCS), JI, • REDD+ • Capacity building under the Kyoto Protocol for • Capacity building for developing countries developing countries
“important yes, but not today” • Adopt a legal agreement on climate change no later than 2015! (which will come into force latest in 2020) • “ﬁrst” Ame world’s governments have agreed emerging economies enter legal arrangements • Not another mulAlateral collapse • Deal despite adverse economic climate that includes China, India and US!
It can be done… Canada Costa Rica • RaAﬁed Annex I / K. Protocoll • AnAcipates to produce 95% of • Target: 6% below 1990 levels by its electricity from renewable 2012 energy sources by 2014 • Reality: far away, now at 30% above 1990 levels • Decision: opt out of Kyoto Maldives Protocol in order not to pay • Able to demonstrate plans to ﬁnes… meet their goal of carbon neutrality by 2020 Developed countries • Resources for 2010-‐2012 are being disbursed so slowly that on current rates, the ﬁnance in quesAon would sAll be being disbursed in 2029.
Durban Outcome InterpretaVon • Establishment of a new body to negoAate a global agreement (Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Plaoorm for Enhanced AcVon) by 2015 represents a major step forward. • However, with the the current reducVon proposals on the table, we are aiming to reach about 3.5°C by 2100 and not 2C. • A warming over 3°C could bring the world close to several potenAal global-‐scale Apping points, such as: – Possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest, corals dying – Irreversible loss of the Greenland ice sheets of many centuries to thousands of years – Risk of release of methane hydrates in ocean ﬂoor sediments further adding to the warming – Permafrost thawing due to fast rising arcAc temperatures
Don’t’ forget the target is 1.5C or 2C!! Example wording of a CMP Decision: In the decision (FCCC/KP/2011/L.9), the CMP agreed to include this item on the provisional agenda session in order to conAnue its consideraAon of this proposal. “ So see you at Doha, Quatar (COP18) 26 Nov. to 7 Dec. 2012 Q: Who will contribute how much to the Green Climate Fund?
• “At Durban the door has been reopened to a legally binding global agreement which had been shut in Copenhagen in 2009.” • “nothing is agreed unVl everything is agreed”. The main elements of the negoVaVons are all Ved, with divisions of areas such as ﬁnance and adaptaVon spilling across and inﬂuencing consensus elsewhere. -‐ There is hope! QuesVons?
Want to know more? • United NaAons – hxp://www.africapavilionatcop17.org – UNEP Bridging the Emissions Gap • NGOs: BankTrack, Greenpeace, IUCN, 350, WWF, … – Climate Development Knowledge Network CDKN – Guide: www.climateplanning.org – hxp://climateacAontracker.org/countries/developing/china.html – www.climatepolicytracker.eu – www.nama-‐database.org/ • Film: – An Inconvenient Truth (Al Gore) • Discussion – hxp://www.weforum.org/reports/water-‐security-‐water-‐energy-‐food-‐climate-‐nexus – hxp://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?Ad=90&pid=44&aid=8 – Stern Report