What happened in Durban (Climate Change Conference)?


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What happened in Durban (Climate Change Conference)?

  1. 1. What  happened  in  Durban?  28th  of  November  –  11th  of  December  2011   Green  Drinks  Hangzhou   9th  of  January  2012   By  Lara   Esser  
  2. 2. UN  Secretary  General  Ban  Ki-­‐moon:  •  future  of  our  planet  is  at  stake  and  the  survival  of  some   naAons  •  second  commitment  period  under  the  Kyoto  Protocol   important,  so  no  gap  in  climate  policy      
  3. 3. Who  aDended?  •  RepresentaAves  of  the  worlds  governments,   internaAonal  organizaAons  and  civil  society  •  12,400  parAcipants  •  5,400  government  officials  •  5,800  UN  body  representaAves,  internaAonal   governmental  and  civil  society  organizaAons  •  1,200  members  of  media     And  why?  
  4. 4. Conference  Sessions  •  The  17th  Conference  of  the  ParAes  (COP)  of  UNFCCC  •  The  7th  Conference  of  the  ParAes  serving  as  the  MeeAng  of  the  ParAes  to   the  Kyoto  Protocol  (CMP)   –  The  35th  session  of  the  Subsidiary  Body  for  ImplementaAon  (SBI),   –  The  35th  session  of  the  Subsidiary  Body  for  ScienAfic  and  Technological   Advice  (SBSTA),   –   The  Ad  Hoc  Working  Group  on  Further  Commitments  for  Annex  I  ParAes   under  the  Kyoto  Protocol  (AWG-­‐  KP)   –  The  Ad  Hoc  Working  Group  on  Long-­‐term  CooperaAve  AcAon  under  the   ConvenAon  (AWG-­‐LCA.)  •  The  Conference  was  hosted  by  the  Government  of  South  Africa  and  took   place  at  the  InternaAonal  ConvenAon  Centre  (ICC)  &  Durban  ExhibiAon   Centre  (DEC).   Just  joking!  
  5. 5. Let’s  start  from  the    beginning…  Part  A  •  Status  of  our  planet  •  Climate  change,  and  why  we  should  we  care?  •  Concept  of  Sustainable  Development    Part  B  •  History  of  UNFCCC,  Kyoto  Protocol  •  Clean  Development  Mechanism  •  Durban  results    
  6. 6. Future  of  our  Planet   More  land     More  water   Coal,  gas,   Hydropower   nuclear?   Renewable   More  energy   Wind,  solar   energy   Energy  efficiency   Biomass   More  land     More  financial   PopulaAon   More  water   support   growth   More  food   More  intensive   land  use   More  clean   water   More  need  for   Less  free   Less  natural   natural   ecosystem   environment   resources   services  
  7. 7. Climate  Change  below  2C?  
  8. 8. Issues  +  Climate  Change   Water   Least   Developed   Countries  Food   Pop   Energy   Emerging   countries   Money   Developed   countries   Developing   countries   Land   Principle:  Common  but  differenVated  responsibility   Principle:  Polluter  pays  
  9. 9. Least  Good  to  know…     Developed   Countries  •  G77  (previously),  now:   Emerging   Developed   •  Africa  group,  or  Southern   countries   Money   countries   Africa  Development   Community,  Economic   Community  of  Central  Africa   States  …   Developing   countries  •  BASIC  =  Brazil,  South  Africa,   India,  China   ALBA  =  Bolivarian  Alliance  for  •  LDC  Group  =  Least   the  Peoples  of  Our  America   Developed  Countries     EIG  =  Environmental  Integrity  •  AOSIS  =  Alliance  of  Small   Group       Islands  States   CoaliVon  of  Rainforest  NaVons  
  10. 10. Concept  of  Sustainable  Development  Sustainable  development  is  development  that  meets  the  needs  of  the  present  without  compromising  the  ability  of  future  genera8ons  to  meet  their  own  needs.    
  11. 11. Climate  Change  •  Al  Gore’s  “An  Inconvenient  Truth”  (film)  •  “Global  warming”  OR  “climate  change”  •  Globally,  14  of  the  past  15  years  have  been  the  warmest  on  record.  •  Global  average  temperature  rise  puts  approximately  20-­‐30%  of  plant  and   animal  species  at  increased  risk  of  exAncAon  •  1000  of  1100  glaciers  researched  are  receding    •  Floods  and  droughts  will  become  more  common  •  Rainfall  in  Ethiopia,  where  droughts  are  already  common,  could  decline   by  10%  over  the  next  50  years  •  The  Intergovernmental  Panel  on  Climate  Change  (IPCC)  predicts  that  by   2020,  75-­‐250  million  people  in  Africa  will  be  exposed  to  increased  water   stress  due  to  climate  change.  •  ANIMAL  AND  PLANT  EXTINCTION  RISKS,  INCREASED  SEA  LEVEL  •  MORE  EXTREME  EVENTS  (floods  and  droughts)  
  12. 12. Climate  and  Forests       Tropical  forest  destrucAon  is   responsible  for  up  to  1/5  of   global  greenhouse  gas  (GHG)   emissions  –  more  than  emissions   from  all  the  world’s  cars,  planes   and  trains  put  together.   Stop  forest  destrucVon!     Forests  are  “carbon  sinks”  
  13. 13. Lucky  that’s  not  you…  
  14. 14. And  that’s  not  you…  
  15. 15. India:  Sea  Level  Rise  and  People  in  Sundarbans.  "Over  the  past  twenty  years,  I  have  lost  my  house  about  seven  to  eight  Vmes".    
  16. 16. Climate  change  means  more   extreme  events  :  e.g.  higher   precipitaVon,  i.e.  rain  which   can  lead  to  flooding   See:  Thailand  2011  And  you’re  not  here…  
  17. 17. Climate  Change  and  Economy  •  Climate  change  is  increasing  the  frequency  and  intensity  of   extreme  weather,  causing  a  sharp  upswing  in  damages.    •  In  2005,  natural  catastrophes  caused  USD  220  billion  worth   of  damage  worldwide.  •  The  German  InsAtute  for  Economic  Research  esAmates  that   if  nothing  is  done  to  curb  greenhouse  gas  emissions,  annual   economic  damages  could  reach            USD  20  trillion  by  2100.  •  If  climate  protecAon  policies  were  to  be  implemented  NOW,   this    could  limit  the  temperature  increase  to  2°C  and   eliminate  more  than  half  of  the  damages;  by  2100  this   would  avoid  USD  12  trillion  in  annual  damages  by  spending   USD  3  trillion  per  year  on  climate  protecAon.  
  18. 18. Part  B  •  History  of  UNFCCC  •  Kyoto  Protocol  •  Clean  Development  Mechanism  •  Durban  results    
  19. 19. History  1992  –  2012      20  years!  •  1992  Earth  Summit  in  Rio  de  Janeiro,  Brazil   – “global  warming”  due  to  human  acAviAes   – United  NaAons  Framework  ConvenAon  for  Climate  Change   (UNFCCC)   – Framework  for  acAon  to  stabilize  greenhouse  gas  emissions   in  the  atmosphere  to  avoid  “dangerous  anthropogenic   interference”  with  the  climate  system   – Non-­‐binding  commitment  by  industrialized  countries   (Annex  I  of  UNFCCC)  to  reduce  emissions  of  GHG  to  1990   levels  by  2000.    •  1994  UNFCCC  into  force  
  20. 20. •  1995  1st  Conference  of  ParAes  (COP)   –  annual  meeAng  of  the  countries  who  raAfied  UNFCCC   –  NegoAaAon  of  a  Protocol  to  set  Aghter  legally  binding  targets  for  reducing   GHG  emission  •  1997  3rd  COP  in  Kyoto   –  Industrialized  Annex  B  countries  reduce  emissions  by  on  average  5.2%   below  1990  levels  over  first  commitment  period  2008-­‐2012,  with  specific   targets  for  each  country   –  3  flexible  market-­‐based  mechanisms  were  designed:     •  InternaAonal  Emissions  Trading  (ET)   •  Joint  ImplementaAon  (JI)     •  Clean  Development  Mechanism  (CDM)  •  2001  Marrakech  Accords  operaAonalized  CDM     –  Established  ExecuAve  Board  to  oversee  CDM  and  “project  cycle”  •  2005  Kyoto  Protocol  entered  into  force     –  raAfied  by  all  Annex  B  countries  except  the  US  
  21. 21. Flexible  Market  Mechanism  -­‐  CDM  – Idea:  a  country  can  purchase  UN-­‐accredited  carbon  credits   from  other  countries  to  reduce  GHG  emissions  in  their   own  territory    – Carbon  credits  =  “CerVfied  Emission  ReducVons”,  CERs)   come  from  emission  reducAon  or  sequestraAon  projects  in   developing  countries  without  emission  targets.    – Win-­‐win  situaVon   •  developing  countries  can  aDract  investment  +  technology   •  industrialized  countries  can  reduce  GHG  cheaper  
  22. 22. CDM  Projects  •  Developed  countries  that  are  part  of  the  Kyoto  Protocol  are  legally  bound  to  reduce   their  GHG  emissions  •  They  can  pay  for  carbon  credits  from  projects  in  developing  countries  (“CDM  projects”)   that  will  reduce  GHG  emissions  •  I.e.  GHG  emissions  are  reduced/saved  in  a  developed  country  but  count  towards   reaching  the  target  in  a  developing  country  •  To  be  registered  under  the  CDM,  a  project  has  to  be  ‘addi8onal’  and  sustainable   development     Sewage  /   Bio-­‐fuels  Heavy  Industry   wastewater   Forestry  
  23. 23. No  more  binding   Rio  1992  –  Earth  emission   Summit  -­‐  reducAon   UNFCCC  targets   31.12.2012  End   Kyoto  1995   ?   of  Kyoto   COP1     Protocol   20  years  on     June  2012     Rio20+   Durban  2011   CLIMATE  CHANGE   2005  Kyoto   conAnues   Protocol  into   COP17   force  unAl  2012   Copenhagen   Bali  2007  AcAon   2009   Plan  towards   COP15   Copenhagen  
  24. 24. MeeVngs    •  2007  Bali,  COP13,  CMP3  –  Bali  AcAon  Plan   – Focus  on  key  elements  of  long-­‐term  cooperaAon:   miAgaAon,  adaptaAon,  finance,  technology,  shared   vision   – Roadmap  in  Bali  set  a  deadline  for  concluding   negoAaAons  in  December  2009  in  Copenhagen  •  2008  Poznan,  Poland  
  25. 25. Pre-­‐MeeVngs  •  Bangkok  Sept/Oct.  2009  UNFCCC  MeeAng  •  Barcelona  Nov.  2009  UNFCCC  MeeAng  
  26. 26. Copenhagen,  Denmark   •  December  2009   •  High  expectaAons,  great  disappointment,  hoping   to  achieve  ambiAous  legally  binding  targets  for   countries   •   Disputes  over  transparency  and  process,  e.g.   informal  discussions,  e.g.  including  China  but   excluding  US  Adverts  with  heads  of  state  placed  all  over  Copenhagen  Airport  by  the  global  coaliAon,  tcktcktck.org  &  Greenpeace  calling  on  world  leaders  to  secure  a  fair,  ambiAous  and  binding  deal  at  the  Copenhagen  Climate  Summit.  
  27. 27. Head’s  of  State  –  Copenhagen  Int’l  Airport  
  28. 28. Copenhagen  2009  ProjecAon  on  the  Danish  Parliament  building  where  more  than  100  heads  of  state  were  due  to  dine  with  the  Danish  Queen  during  the  Copenhagen  climate  summit.   Greenpeace  China  projects   a  message  onto  Yong  Ding   Gate  
  29. 29. Cancun,  Mexico  2010  •  Cancun  Agreements  •  Along  both  UNFCCC/Kyoto  Protocol  tracks  •  Under  convenAon  track:     –  deep  cuts  in  global  emissions  to  limit  average  temp.  rise  to  2C   –  took  note  of  targets  and  naAonally  appropriate  miAgaAon   acAons  (NAMAs),  decisions  addressed  deforestaAon,…     –  Technology  Mechanism   –  Green  Climate  Fund  (GCF),  jointly  mobilize  US$100  billion  per   year  by  2020   –  Recognized  commitment  to  provide  US$  30  billion  finance   2010-­‐2012  by  developed  countries  •  Under  Protocol  track:     –  ensure  no  gap  between  1st/2nd  Kyoto  commitment  period  
  30. 30. PoliVcians     2011  
  31. 31. ExpectaVons  by  NGOs  •  Ensure  a  peak  in  GHG  emissions  by  2015  •  Ensure  that  the  Kyoto  Protocol  conVnues  &  provide  a  mandate  for  a   comprehensive  legally  binding  deal  (KP2)  •  AdopAon  of  a  roadmap  towards  a  wider  global  climate  change  regime  •  Deliver  the  necessary  finance  to  tackle  climate  change,  e.g.  the  Green   Climate  Fund  as  agreed  in  Cancun   –  Fund  will  receive  money  from  rich  countries  and  channel  it  to  adaptaAon   acAons  and  clean  technology  in  developing  countries  •  Set  up  a  framework  for  protecVng  forests  in  developing  countries    •  Ensure  global  cooperaVon  on  technology  and  energy  finance  •  Ensure  internaAonal  transparency  in  assessing  and  monitoring  country   commitments  and  acAons  
  32. 32. Kyoto  Protocol  –    With  or  without  you…?           Kyotos  first  round  of  emissions  pledges  expires  awer  2012.  The  promises  apply  only  to   rich  countries,  not  to  developing  ones,  nor  do  they  concern  the  United  States,  which   boycoxed  Kyoto  in  2001.         No  Kyoto,  then  UNFCCC  with  only  have  a  voluntary  approach  for  taming  carbon  emissions.         Kyoto  seen  by  developing  countries  as  a  treaty  that  represents  solidarity  between  rich   and  poor     Discussion:  “Rich”  Kyoto  countries  are  refusing  to  sign  on  for  fresh  commitments,   saying  this  would  be  unfair  if  far  bigger  emiDers,  accounVng  for  more  than  half  of  all   carbon  polluVon,  get  off  the  hook.         Chances  of  a  deal  lie  in  a  proposal  made  by  the  European  Union,  which  has  offered  to   sign  up  for  a  second  round  of  commitments  in  return  for  a  "roadmap"  to  a  new,  legally   binding  pact  encompassing  the  big  carbon  polluters,  notably  China  and  the  United  States.  
  33. 33. Durban,  South  Africa  2011  •  3  UNFCCC  meeAngs  beforehand   –  Bangkok,  Bonn  and  Panama  City    •  28.11.-­‐11.12.2011    •  COP  17  and  CMP7  •  Comments:     –  “significant  poliAcal  breakthrough”   –  “marathon  sessions”   –  Results  disappoinAng,  lixle  progress  made  on  countries   emission  targets   –  Reaching  consensus  on  a  more  inclusive  agreement  that   incorporates  obligaAons  not  only  for  industrialized  but   developing  countries  too  ambiAous    
  34. 34. What  was  decided?  •  19  COP  decisions  •  17  CMP  decisions  and  approval  of  a  number  of   conclusions  by  subsidiary  bodies   – 2nd  commitment  period  under  Kyoto  Protocol   – Decision  on  long-­‐term  cooperaVve  acVon  under  the   ConvenVon  (UNFCCC)   – Launch  of  new  process  towards  an  agreed  outcome  with   legal  force  applicable  to  all  parVes  of  the  ConvenVon   – OperaVonalizaVon  of  the  Green  Climate  Fund  (will   distribute  US$100bn  per  yr  by  2020  from  public  and   private  funds  for  miVgaVon  acVons)  
  35. 35. Decisions  were  made…   COP  17  Decisions   CMP7  Decisions    •  Establishment  of  an  Ad  Hoc  Working  Group   •  Outcome  of  the  Ad  Hoc  Working  Group  on  the  •  A  report  of  an  Ad  Hoc  Working  Group   Further  Commitments  for  Annex  I  ParAes  •  Launching  of  the  Green  Climate  Fund   under  KP  •  Technology  ExecuAve  Commixee   •  Land  use,  land-­‐use  change  and  forestry  •  NaAonal  adaptaAon  plans   •  Emissions  trading  and  project  based  •  Work  programme  on   mechanisms   –  impacts,  vulnerability  and  adaptaAon  to  climate   •  GHG  ,  sectors  and  source  categories,  and   change   methodological  issues     –  Loss  and  damage   •  InformaAon  on  potenAal  env.,  economic  and  •  Forum  on  response  measures   social  consequences  of  tools,  policies,  •  Financial  mechanism  for  LDCs   measures  &  methodologies  •  Amendment  to  Annex  I   •  Report  of  AdaptaAon  Fund  &  Review  •  Report  by  GEF  (Global  Environmental  Facility)   •  Guidance  on  CDM  (+CCS),  JI,    •  REDD+     •  Capacity  building  under  the  Kyoto  Protocol  for  •  Capacity  building  for  developing  countries   developing  countries  
  36. 36. “important  yes,  but  not  today”  •  Adopt  a  legal  agreement  on  climate  change  no   later  than  2015!  (which  will  come  into  force  latest   in  2020)  •  “first”  Ame  world’s  governments  have  agreed   emerging  economies  enter  legal  arrangements  •  Not  another  mulAlateral  collapse  •  Deal  despite  adverse  economic  climate  that   includes  China,  India  and  US!  
  37. 37. It  can  be  done…  Canada   Costa  Rica  •  RaAfied  Annex  I  /  K.  Protocoll     •  AnAcipates  to  produce  95%  of  •  Target:  6%  below  1990  levels  by   its  electricity  from  renewable   2012   energy  sources  by  2014  •  Reality:  far  away,  now  at  30%   above  1990  levels  •  Decision:  opt  out  of  Kyoto   Maldives   Protocol  in  order  not  to  pay   •  Able  to  demonstrate  plans  to   fines…   meet  their  goal  of  carbon   neutrality  by  2020  Developed  countries  •  Resources  for  2010-­‐2012  are  being  disbursed  so  slowly  that  on  current   rates,  the  finance  in  quesAon  would  sAll  be  being  disbursed  in  2029.    
  38. 38. Durban  Outcome  InterpretaVon  •  Establishment  of  a  new  body  to  negoAate  a  global  agreement  (Ad  Hoc   Working  Group  on  the  Durban  Plaoorm  for  Enhanced  AcVon)  by  2015   represents  a  major  step  forward.    •  However,  with  the  the  current  reducVon  proposals  on  the  table,  we  are   aiming  to  reach  about  3.5°C  by  2100  and  not  2C.    •  A  warming  over  3°C  could  bring  the  world  close  to  several  potenAal   global-­‐scale  Apping  points,  such  as:   –  Possible  dieback  of  the  Amazon  rainforest,  corals  dying   –  Irreversible  loss  of  the  Greenland  ice  sheets  of  many  centuries  to  thousands   of  years   –  Risk  of  release  of  methane  hydrates  in  ocean  floor  sediments  further  adding   to  the  warming   –  Permafrost  thawing  due  to  fast  rising  arcAc  temperatures  
  39. 39. Don’t’  forget  the  target  is  1.5C  or  2C!!   Example  wording  of  a  CMP  Decision:     In  the  decision  (FCCC/KP/2011/L.9),  the  CMP   agreed  to  include  this  item  on  the  provisional   agenda  session  in  order  to  conAnue  its   consideraAon  of  this  proposal.  “   So  see  you  at  Doha,  Quatar   (COP18)   26  Nov.  to  7  Dec.  2012     Q:  Who  will  contribute  how   much  to  the  Green  Climate   Fund?  
  40. 40. •  “At  Durban  the  door  has  been  reopened  to  a  legally   binding  global  agreement  which  had  been  shut  in   Copenhagen  in  2009.”  •  “nothing  is  agreed  unVl  everything  is  agreed”.  The   main  elements  of  the  negoVaVons  are  all  Ved,  with   divisions  of  areas  such  as  finance  and  adaptaVon   spilling  across  and  influencing  consensus  elsewhere.     -­‐  There  is  hope!     QuesVons?    
  41. 41. Want  to  know  more?    •  United  NaAons   –  hxp://www.africapavilionatcop17.org   –  UNEP  Bridging  the  Emissions  Gap  •  NGOs:  BankTrack,  Greenpeace,  IUCN,  350,  WWF,  …   –  Climate  Development  Knowledge  Network  CDKN     –  Guide:  www.climateplanning.org   –  hxp://climateacAontracker.org/countries/developing/china.html   –  www.climatepolicytracker.eu   –  www.nama-­‐database.org/  •  Film:     –  An  Inconvenient  Truth  (Al  Gore)    •  Discussion   –  hxp://www.weforum.org/reports/water-­‐security-­‐water-­‐energy-­‐food-­‐climate-­‐nexus   –  hxp://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?Ad=90&pid=44&aid=8   –  Stern  Report