GTP Presentation: Introduction and Contextualisation: Imagining the Future

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On 2 and 3 October 2013, the GTP hosted a series of seminars and scenario planning workshops to capture ideas. In attendance at the "Imagine the Future" Seminar was a cross-sector mix of people including councillors, City and Provincial government officials, planners and urban designers, researchers, NGOS, built environment professionals, and members of the media.

This presentation by the Programme Management Executive of the GTP sets out the context of global development forces shaping the way cities function. Development drivers, the initial spatial argument and other core aspects are identified for the Voortrekker Road corridor for 2020, 2030 and 2040, seen here as the second metropolitan core of Cape Town.

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GTP Presentation: Introduction and Contextualisation: Imagining the Future

  1. 1. Introduction and Context Shahid Solomon Programme Executive, GTP IMAGINING THE FUTURE: CAPE TOWN’S SECOND METROPOLITAN NODE
  2. 2. The Focus Area
  3. 3. 1.Feeling the Temperature 2.Imagining the Future 3.Exploring the Possibilities 4.Integrating and Aligning 5.International Design Competition
  4. 4. African City Scenarios Corridor Structure and Place Making Knowledge and Innovation Hub Network Society Integrated Transport Corridor Corridor Model Mark I Mark II Mark III
  5. 5. A WORLD IN TRANSITION
  6. 6. 1771 Industrial Revolution 1829 Start of Age of Steam and Railways 1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering 1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production 1971 Age of Information & Telecommunications 2013 Midpoint of Age of Information & Telecommunications 2020 Era of Turbulence 2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy? MID CENTURY Midpoint of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy?
  7. 7. THE ROAD TO MID CENTURY  Four Hard Riders  Five Easy Riders  Two Zebras  Seven Human Generations
  8. 8. Four Hard Riders
  9. 9. • CO2 : Climate change • Ocean acidification • Global nitrogen cycle (N) cycle • Global freshwater use • Land system change & soil loss • Biological diversity loss • Chemical pollution 1. ON THE PLANET BOUNDARY
  10. 10. IPCC Report 27 Sep 2013  Carbon dioxide is at an "unprecedented" level not seen for at least the last 800,000 years.  Sea level is set to continue to rise at a faster rate than over the past 40 years.  Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been melting, glaciers and Arctic sea ice have continued to shrink.  changes seen in climate since the 1950s are "unprecedented over decades to millennia."
  11. 11. 2. A WORLD RUN BY POWERFUL, AGEING 20TH CENTURY NATION STATES
  12. 12. 3. GLOBAL INSTITUTIONS More Rounds & Rounds of talking OR Executive Global Government ?
  13. 13. 4. GLOBAL FINANCE Global Casino of Financialisation OR Recapitalise Re- novation of Global Infrastructure ?
  14. 14. FIVE Easy Riders
  15. 15. 1. LIFE HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER! FOR MORE PEOPLE FASTER THAN EVER BEFORE AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DO SO Population Growth Rates Declining Better Quality of Life  Famine has become rare  People are Living 25% longer than 40 years ago  Greater choice & opportunity than ever before  Huge reductions in Poverty  Better health: lifestyle diseases now key issue Higher Standards of Living  GDP per person has doubled since 1970  Cost of Communication has been slashed  Price of metals & commodities reducing  More holidays, media choice, information
  16. 16. • The Green Wave • algal aircraft fuel • super efficient solar • composting toilets • Internet Everywhere • Network-linked chips in everything : 1 trillion by 2025 • Talking video smartphones for all • Augmented Reality • Personal Computing Device • Biotechnology: • Biology + Nanoscience + Information Science • Redesign of the human being: Genetic Engineering & Transhumanism • Redesign of materials 2. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION: A MATTER OF TIME & MARKET
  17. 17. 3. Other Global trends  Dematerialisation  3D Printing  Hydrogen Fuel Cells  Bio feedstock & fuels  Membrane Technology  Mass Customisation  Localisation of Production
  18. 18. 4. Fast Rail Linked to Air Transport = Aerotropolis
  19. 19. ELECTRIC NETWORKED-VEHICLE (EN-V)  Drives automatically and comes when you call it via iPhone  GPS, distance-sensing technology and vehicle-to-vehicle communication systems would ease congestion and reduce the risk of accidents.  At one-sixth the size of a regular car, the pods are made of lightweight materials like carbon fiber and weigh just 1,000 pounds.  You can fit five of them into one parking spot.
  20. 20. SMART TRANSPORT  Smart car pooling companies.  Door-to- door taxi service  Congestion Pricing  Dynamic ride sharing  Real-time transportation and driving services will be able to adjust automatically according to weather, schedule infractions and congestion
  21. 21. FULLY AUTOMATED VEHICLES  Users can “punch in” or “speak” the place they want to go to and the vehicle will automatically take them there.  will set the stage for fully automated navigation systems for FLYING VEHICLES
  22. 22. More transport options towards 2030  electric automobiles and hybrids dominate  Self-illuminating highways – highways that glow in the dark“Glow Roads”
  23. 23. And by 2050…  Bcause of friction-free technologies and advances in material science, the average passenger vehicle will weigh less than 90 kg  because of automation, far fewer pieces, and greatly reduced complexity the average manufacturing time for a vehicle will be less than one hour  the cost of the average vehicle will be under R 50 000  because of the use of automated navigation systems, traffic courts will be a distant memory.
  24. 24. AFRICA IN TRANSITION
  25. 25. SOUTH AFRICA IN TRANSITION EASY RIDERS
  26. 26. Solid Financial System Macro Economic Stability White Middle Class Black Middle Class Tax Base Corporate Competitiv eness SOLID CORPORATE CORE
  27. 27. EMERGING MARKET LEADER : Faster GDP growth than Indonesia, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey
  28. 28. A SMALL AFRICAN COUNTRY • Population Stable & Ageing • Gets dwarfed in the African context to MID CENTURY Country Population (millions)* 2012 2030 MID CENTURY GAIN 2012 -MID CENTURY SOUTH AFRICA 50 54 56 +6 TANZANIA 47 81 138 +91 NIGERIA 166 257 389 +223 * UN Projections 2012
  29. 29. PROSPEROUS • Huge Potential of Africa • SA High Economic Competitiveness • Most sophisticated economy in Africa • Relatively declining importance of mineral wealth
  30. 30. DYNAMIC  Economic Nucleus of 250m in Southern Africa
  31. 31. HARD RIDERS : A TURBULENT MEDIUM TERM FUTURE
  32. 32. Motor Car based Cities Apartheid Cities Low Productivity Huge Carbon Footprint FRACTURED CITIES
  33. 33. Gauteng Megalopolis
  34. 34. Townships Poverty Apartheid legacy Poor Education & Health Social Fragmentat ion THE TOWNSHIP THAT STAYED FOR DINNER
  35. 35. High Unemploym ent Poor Labour Relations Grant Relieved Poverty Low Skills Growth Ceiling FRACTURED WORKFORCE
  36. 36. Cheap Coal Electricity Cheap Labour Minerals Export Resource curse Huge Carbon Footprint VULNERABLE MINERALS ENERGY COMPLEX
  37. 37. Big Government Big Business Big Trade Unions Stifled Small Business STIFLING MONOPOLIES
  38. 38. YEAR GLOBAL TRANSITION YEAR SOUTH AFRICA TRANSITION 1771 Industrial Revolution 1829 Start of Age of Steam & Rail 1875 Start of Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering 1908 Start of Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production 1905 Mining Economy + Union of South Africa 1930 Resource Based Manufacturing 1960 Republic of South Africa 1971 Age of Information & Telecommunications 1971 Resource Based Services Economy 2013 Midpoint of Age of Information & Telecomms 1994 Democratic Elections 2020 Era of Turbulence 2020 A Perfect Storm ? 2030 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy? 2030 An African Knowledge & Finance Capital ? MID CENTURY Midpoint of Age of Biotech 2050 A Wealthy African Region ?
  39. 39. A CORRIDOR IN TRANSITION
  40. 40. Corridor Transition Period World Transition Transport Driver Urban Response 1. Birth 1680 – 1840 Regional Wagon Route Outspan at Hardekraaltjie 2. Urbanisation 1860 - 1940 Age of Steel, Electricity & Heavy Engineering Hard Road & Railway Line Country Villages & High Streets 3. City Integration 1940 – 1980 Age of Oil, Automobiles & Mass Production Commuter Rail / Bus Corridor Industrialisation Satellite Towns & Corridor Emergence 4. Metro Sprawl 1980 – 2020 Age of Information & Telecommunications N1 Regional Motor Corridor, Mini Bus Taxi Corridor Decline 5. Metro Compaction 2020 – 2030 Era of Turbulence Bus Rapid Transit, New Trains, Smart Transport Systems Corridor Regeneration 6. Africanisation 2030 - 2040 Start of Age of Biotechnology and Renewable Energy? Fast Rail, Smart Vehicles Off Grid Satellite Towns 7. Regionalism 2040 + Midpoint of Age of Biotech and Renewable Energy? Walking & Cycling Urban Villages
  41. 41. CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
  42. 42. BELLVILLE AT CORE OF 21ST CENTURY REGIONAL COMPLEX  Bio Silicon Valley of Africa  Regional Tourism & Services  Fast Rail connecting Airport, Western Cape, Eastern Cape and Gauteng  Aerotropolis link to airport
  43. 43. BI – NODAL STRUCTURE OF CAPE TOWN’S URBAN CORE Second Node Balancing Historic City Centre
  44. 44. CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE SUSTAINABILITY PERSPECTIVE  Worst Case Scenario: Doubling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2040 will place massive carbon tax burden on growth  Urban Core is energy efficient, carbon efficient, adaptable, inclusive & sustainable alternative
  45. 45. INTEGRATING THE CAPE FLATS Corridor anchors North South grid integration of Cape Flats Second Node is connecting Hub for Symphony Way Corridor that links Khayelitsha to the Urban Core CAPE TOWN SECOND CITY STRUCTURE PERSPECTIVE
  46. 46. Integrated Rapid Transit (2016) Modern Rail Fleet (2025)
  47. 47. CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE INNOVATION PERSPECTIVE
  48. 48. CAPE TOWN SECOND NODE URBAN DESIGN PERSPECTIVE
  49. 49. Bellville’s Star Shape Stretches Growth Cape Town has Adaptable Grid to enable Cohesive Growth
  50. 50. STRADDLING RAILWAY LINE IS CRITICAL COMPACT COHESIVE CITY CORE
  51. 51. WELL NETWORKED AND CONNECTED URBAN CAMPUS
  52. 52. CORRIDOR OPTIONS AND TYPOLOGIES
  53. 53. A step path into the future
  54. 54. CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040
  55. 55. URBAN ORGANISER CID Operations Integrated Transport Operations Security Agency Capacity Building CCTV Safe Transport & Parking Constructive Parks & Public Spaces Problem Buildings
  56. 56. Clean & Safe CIDs Great Events Ubuntu Market FROM AMBITION TO ACTION: TURNING POTENTIAL INTO PROSPERITY
  57. 57. CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040 URBAN ACUPUNTURE : 2013 - 2016
  58. 58. Urban Acupunture  Strategic Locations  Key Intersections  Well Located Public land  Stations & Transport Interchanges  Catalytic Effect on Systems & Perceptions  Do-able within 18 months – 2 years
  59. 59. CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040 CATALYTIC PPP REVELOPMENT & UPGRADING: 2013 - 2016 LARGE SCALE REPACKAGING 2014 -2025
  60. 60. Nodal Precincts Nodal Precinct Ha Avail. Units People Value Wingfield + Transnet 321 200 40 000 160 000 R 12 Billion Belcon 340 233 46 600 186 400 R 14 Billion Stikland Hospital 140 140 28 000 112 000 R 8.4 Billion Tygerberg Hospital 75 75 15 000 60 000 R 4.5 Billion 876 648 129 600 518 400 R 38.8 Billion
  61. 61. CLEAN & SAFE STREETS & HOUSING & EVENTS & NETWORKS 2013 – 2040 URBAN ACUPUNTUTE : 2013 - 2016 LARGE SCALE REPACKAGING: 2013 – 2020 CORRIDOR INTEGRATION 2016 -2040 NEW METRO NODE 2016 -2040
  62. 62. THANK YOU

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