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Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium and Reception; January 10, 2014
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Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium and Reception; January 10, 2014

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This non-partisan open forum presents an opportunity for our state’s representatives to connect just prior to the session’s beginning, which will run until June. We aim to speak theoretically, beyond …

This non-partisan open forum presents an opportunity for our state’s representatives to connect just prior to the session’s beginning, which will run until June. We aim to speak theoretically, beyond specific bills and votes, as well as to educate them on topics that will directly affect our business community.

We approach the issues through the lens of the business community’s needs over the next 10 years, and break down the trends to see where we are compared to where we need to be.

Topics and Speakers:

Overview of Medicaid Expansion in NH
Mr. Steve Norton, Executive Director of the NH Center for Public Policy
Mr. Tom Wilhelmsen, Jr., CEO of Southern NH Health Systems*
Mr. Charlie Arlinghaus, President of The Josiah Bartlett Center

Is It Time for a Gas Tax in NH?
Commissioner Chris Clement, NH Dept. Of Transportation
Representative David Campbell (D-Nashua)
Mr. Charlie Arlinghaus, President of The Josiah Bartlett Center

Why Divestiture of PSNH Assets Matters to Southern NH
Mr. William J. Quinlan, President/Chief Operating Officer of PSNH
Mr. Daniel Allegretti, Vice President of State Government Affairs with Constellation Energy*

*Note: Mr. Tom Wilhelmsen, Jr. and Mr. Daniel Allegretti did not use PowerPoint slides during their presentations.

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  • NH does not have a plan to finance it’s number one transportation priority – I-93, the backbone of NH’s economy. It is particularly frustrating not to be able to forge ahead with completion of I-93 at a time when bids are very favorable – contractors are looking for work – and it would provide much needed jobs. The federal government requires documentation that the NH Legislature is “committed to completely funding the project.” (Letter dated August 23, 2011)
  • Add % or actual price increases for salt, etc.
  • In addition to shrinking revenues from less miles traveled due to the recession, revenues are decreasing due to more fuel efficient vehicles.
  • (Need amounts for Operations and Capital; check amount for aero/rail/transit)

Transcript

  • 1. Welcome to the Legislative Symposium January 10, 2014
  • 2. Seminar 1: Overview of Medicaid Expansion in NH Time: 1:00-2:15pm Mr. Steve Norton Mr. Tom Wilhelmsen, Jr., Mr. Charlie Arlinghaus Executive Director of the NH Center for Public Policy CEO of Southern NH Health Systems President of The Josiah Bartlett Center Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 2
  • 3. Overview of Medicaid Expansion in NH Executive Director of the NH Center for Public Policy MR. STEVE NORTON Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 3
  • 4. New Hampshire Medicaid Expansion Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Dianne Mercier Richard Ober James Putnam January 10, 2014 Nashua Chamber of Commerce Panel Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Michael Whitney Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Todd I. Selig Kimon S. Zachos Directors Emeritus Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 4
  • 5. ACA and coverage? • Affordable Care Act i. ii. iii. Expand publicly subsidized coverage for those up to 400% of the federal poverty level. As originally conceptualized, cover 0-138% of the federal poverty level via the Medicaid program. Supreme court decided that while the ACA was constitutional, state’s could opt in or opt out of the expansion of Medicaid coverage. • Effective October 1st, all those above 100% of the federal poverty level are eligible for subsidized insurance coverage via the federal health insurance exchange (marketplace). • States have the option of expanding coverage up to 138%. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 5
  • 6. New Public Coverage 138% of the Federal Poverty Level $15,856 in annual income 40% of the Poverty Level $4,596 in annual income Medicaid Expansion Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce $45,960 in annual income $11,490 in annual income 400% of the Federal Poverty Level 100% of the Poverty Level Subsidized Private Insurance 6
  • 7. Who are the Uninsured? NH's Uninsured Adults with Incomes Less than 138% of FPL, 2101 Percent of Uninsured Adults Name Belknap Carroll Cheshire Coos County Grafton Hillsborough Merrimack Rockingham Strafford Sullivan Uninsured Adults 19-64 2,063 1,951 2,641 1,497 2,910 10,922 4,192 6,603 4,538 1,496 Male 52.2% 55.5% 55.0% 56.5% 56.2% 53.3% 55.8% 52.4% 54.5% 53.5% Age 18 to 40 51.1% 42.1% 57.1% 46.8% 52.7% 59.5% 53.1% 48.9% 63.0% 52.2% Age 41 to 50 24.0% 27.4% 21.8% 25.4% 21.7% 20.8% 24.8% 25.0% 19.4% 23.2% Age 51 to 64 24.9% 30.4% 21.2% 27.8% 25.6% 19.7% 22.1% 26.1% 17.7% 24.6% Source:NHCPPS calculations using Small Area Health Insurace Estimates Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 7
  • 8. Impact on the State? Costs and Coverage i. ii. $85,488,000 for the state $2,510,922,000 for the federal government. $55,000 $47,046 $45,000 $35,000 in 1,000 • How much would a Medicaid expansion decrease the number of uninsured? ~25,000 • This would reduce out of pocket costs for those individuals to zero. • How much would that expansion cost the state in 2014-2015 biennium? Approximately $8 million • What about over the 20142020 period? Additional State Expenditures (Lewin Repor: Baseline Medicaid Expansion to 138%) $25,000 $17,371 $13,141 $15,000 $9,143 $5,000 $3,603 $4,322 ($5,000) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ($9,138) ($15,000) Other offsets to state expenditures are possible, but it is difficult to assess the likelihood and timing 8 Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 8
  • 9. Major Policy Debates • Coverage – Estimates from Lewin - An estimated 23,000 individuals who would not otherwise have coverage. i. An estimated 32,000 would shift from employer and individual coverage to Medicaid. • Cost to the state – i. Aside from limited administrative costs ii. 100% federal participation, to be phased down to 90% in 2017 (with an estimated cost of ~$30 million in out year • Financial boon to hospitals, mental health centers, community health centers. • Does it materially impact the health and well-being of New Hampshire Residents? • If we were going to do this, can we maximize private coverage? Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 9
  • 10. Current Status - Areas of agreement • Expand health insurance coverage for low income individuals with incomes less than 133% of the federal poverty level who are not already covered by Medicaid for other reasons (such as disability). • Maximize the use of the private insurance through the use of the state’s Health Insurance Payment Program • Maximize the use of the private insurance market through an individual premium assistance plan where federal dollars are used to purchase private insurance coverage on the exchange. • The program will end in the event of a change in federal financial participation. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 10
  • 11. Areas of Disagreement • Which populations? 0-138% or 100 to 138%? • When will this be effective? January 1st 2015? If the state is unable to develop a waiver, the Senate plan goes away. Timing is important. i. Senate bill (less time) ii. House bill (more time for market, systems and waivers to adjust) • Who will manage (health commission versus DHHS and DOI) Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 11
  • 12. Want to learn more? Online: nhpolicy.org Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy Our blog: policyblognh.org (603) 226-2500 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 12
  • 13. Overview of Medicaid Expansion in NH CEO of Southern NH Health Systems MR. TOM WILHELMSEN, JR. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 13
  • 14. Overview of Medicaid Expansion in NH President of The Josiah Bartlett Center MR. CHARLIE ARLINGHAUS MEDICAID EXPANSION CONCERNS AND COMPROMISE Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 14
  • 15. Uninsured in Maine and NH (and Arizona and New Mexico) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Maine 2007 NH 2008 2009 NM AZ 2010 2011 2012
  • 16. Expansion Didn’t Affect Charity Care NH was 60% higher, now only 11% Hospital Charity Care 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 2004 2005 2006 2007 Maine 2008 2009 New Hampshire 2010 2011
  • 17. Uncompensated Care is 2.3% of Total Spending 2011 National Health Spending (billions) $62 $2,638 Other expenditures Uncompensated care
  • 18. Seminar 2: Is It Time for a Gas Tax in NH? Time: 2:30-3:45pm Commissioner Chris Clement Representative David Campbell Mr. Charlie Arlinghaus NH Department Of Transportation (D – Nashua) President of The Josiah Bartlett Center Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 18
  • 19. Is It Time for a Gas Tax in NH? NH Department Of Transportation COMMISSIONER CHRIS CLEMENT Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 19
  • 20. The Roads to New Hampshire’s Future Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 20
  • 21. Mission Transportation excellence enhancing the quality of life in New Hampshire Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 21
  • 22. Strategic Direction – 4 Step Approach • Preserve Existing Infrastructure – bridges, roads • Maintain Mobility • Improve Safety • Support the Economy Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 22
  • 23. Transportation Factoids • Roads in need of repair cost each NH motorist an average of $330 annually in extra vehicle operating costs - $300 million statewide. • China invested last year; $108B or 9% of GDP into Transportation Infrastructure, vs. USA will spend 1.7% GDP, with Canada 4%. GDP • – Message is USA continues to lag behind competing countries. • NH “Highway Fund” includes gas tax “road toll”, registrations and court fines: • NH “Turnpike Fund is a separate fund (Enterprise Account) Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 23
  • 24. Key Facts About DOT • • • • • • 1,650 permanent employees (FY14) – 20% steady decrease since 1992 Responsible for: 2,143 State Bridges • State Red List – 145 (8%) • State Near Red List – 261 1,685 Municipal Bridges • Municipal Red List – 353 (21%) • All bridges are inspected at least once every two years • State red list bridges are inspected twice every year • Municipal red list bridges are inspected once every year 4,559 centerline miles of roadway maintained (additional 290 town maintained) 8,868 lane-miles of roadway maintained • Annual paving totals 200-300 miles per year (40,000 tons asphalt) • Maintain 100,000 highway signs Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 24
  • 25. 2015 - 2024 Ten Year Transportation Plan Governors Advisory Commission on Intermodal Transportation (GACIT) Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 25
  • 26. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 26
  • 27. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 27
  • 28. GACIT Process i. DRAFT Plan, Financially Constrained • Work in progress ii. Public Hearing Input • Regional priorities and needs iii. GACIT Recommendation to Governor – December 2013 iv. Governor Recommendation to Legislature – January 2014 v. Legislative approval – June 2014 Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 28
  • 29. I-93 Funding NH’s #1 Priority No Current Financing Plan • $250 M Unfunded Remaining Needs Not in Ten Year Plan – Capacity Improvements Exit 3 NB to I-293 split (excl. Exit 5) • Financial plan delivered to FHWA – remaining I-93 project in without statement of legislative intent to fully fund project • Environmental Permits lapse in 2020 • Exit 4A – not funded • Continuing Negative Impact on Ten Year Plan – 2030 Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce jeopardy 29
  • 30. Prioritizing Resources NH Road System (4,559 mi) 1. 2. 3. National Highway System (NHS)(790 mi-18%) • Turnpikes • Interstates • Select US Routes • Select State Numbered Routes US Routes and State Numbered Routes (2,799 mi – 61%) Unnumbered State Roads (970 mi-21%) Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 30
  • 31. New Hampshire Pavement Conditions: 1996-2016 ADDITIONAL $12M PER YEAR NEEDED Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 31
  • 32. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 32
  • 33. Average Price of Asphalt Cement 1992 to 2012 • The cost of asphalt cement increased 460% over this period • Diesel, gasoline, road salt increases….. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 33
  • 34. Statewide Pavement Condition (4,559 total centerline miles 299 unrated) • • • • • • 19 % good condition - 828 miles 44 % fair condition - 1,867 miles 37 % poor condition - 1,565 miles $615 million would be needed to bring all poor condition pavements to good condition (not including drainage, guard rail & bridges) $3.7 billion is the estimated total value of the state-owned pavements Pavements are the State’s most valuable asset other than land and bridges Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 34
  • 35. • 4,559 Miles The DOT Maintained road network would stretch from Concord, NH to Anchorage, AK Anchorage, AK Concord, NH A VERY LONG DRIVE! Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 35
  • 36. Poor Road Conditions Lake Watson, Yukon Anchorage, AK Concord, NH Fargo, ND Would your car survive? 4
  • 37. NH Bridge Condition Red List – Bridges where one or more major structural element is rated as poor condition or worse, or require weight limit posting. Near Red List – Bridges where one or more major structural element is rated as fair condition. Good – Bridges where no major structural element is rated as fair or poor.
  • 38. New Hampshire Red List Bridges • • Total Number of State owned bridges in 2011 = 2,143 Additional Investment of $15m per year would repair as many as 10 bridges depending on size and conditions
  • 39. 2012: 11 Municipal Bridges Closed Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 39
  • 40. Status and Estimated Costs – State Red List • Ten Year Plan rehab/replace 98 of the 140 State Red List bridges. • $680 M (2012 dollars) to rehabilitate or replace the current State Red List bridges. • 100 State bridges were replaced last 10 yrs. • Current 10-Year Plan, 98 State bridges to be replaced =10/yr. • +200 years to replace all 2,143 State bridges. • $7.82 Billion is the estimated total value of the stateowned bridges Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 40
  • 41. Turnpike System Overview • • • • • 3 Turnpike Segments 89 Miles Long 170 Bridges 10 Toll Facilities Enterprise Fund – All Turnpike revenue must be used on the System • Turnpike Revenue pays for: – Operating & Maintenance Costs – Debt Service – R&R Work – Capital Improvements • FY12 $108.7M transactions and $116.6M toll revenue Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 41
  • 42. Proposed Turnpike Expanded Capital Program Unfunded Projects in Current Capital Program form HB 391 – Session 2009 Authorization: • Bedford ORT - $18M (FY15 Adv) • Dover End of N-D Project - $80M (FY14 Adv) Proposed Expanded Capital Program • Bow-Concord: I-93 Widening (I-89 to I-393) - $195M (FY18 Adv) • Nashua-Bedford: FEET Widening (Exit 8 to I-293) - $70M (FY17 Adv) • Manchester: Reconstruction of Exit 6 & FEET Widening - $88M (FY17 Adv) • Manchester: New Interchange at Exit 7 - $54M (FY 18 Adv) • Spaulding Turnpike Toll Facilities (ORT or AET) - $15M (FY16 Adv) • Spaulding Turnpike Maintenance Facilities - $8M (FY14 Adv) • Turnpike Administration Building - $7M (FY15 Adv) • Nashua-Bedford ITS Infrastructure - $4M (FY15 Adv) Potential to create 14,000 jobs* over a ten year period • Merrimack Exit 12 Toll Plaza Removal - $2M (FY15 Adv) • Sarah Mildred Long Bridge ($2M Annual Capital Contribution) - $18M (FY14 Start) • TYP 2013-2022 includes PE & ROW for Bow-Concord ($13.0M) and for Manchester Exit 6 & 7 ($14.0M) *Reference: Transportation Infrastructure Report 2011 – Building America’s Future: Falling Apart & Falling Behind Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 42
  • 43. FUNDING OUTLOOK Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 43
  • 44. Challenges Ahead • Federal Reauthorization MAP-21 expires September 2014 • Shrinking revenue from fuel efficient vehicles and less miles traveled due to recession • One-time solutions–Not Sustainable Funding • Rising Costs - Petroleum based business Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 44
  • 45. Increased Fuel Efficiency = Less HWY Revenue Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 45
  • 46. DOT FUNDING SOURCES • Highway Fund (road toll tax a.k.a. gas tax, motor vehicle fees, court fees, misc.) $260 m/ year) • -$48 m deficit FY16, -$105 m FY17 Operating Budget • Federal Aid ($143 m/year) – Capital Budget • General Funds: Aeronautics, Rail, Transit ($900,000/year) • Turnpike Fund: Turnpikes only (subject to to bondholders): $117m/year tolls Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce covenants 46
  • 47. One-time Non-Sustainable Operating Funding • FY 06-07 Surplus from Highway Fund • FY 08-09 Bonding $60m • FY 10-11 Registration Surcharge $90m I-95 Transfer $50m • FY 12-13 I-95 Transfer $52m • FY 14 -15 I-95 Transfer $ 30m • FY 16 -17 Deficit -$48m & - $105m Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 47
  • 48. Summary • $22m / yr. : Complete I-93 widening project $250m • $15m / yr. : Red List Bridge additional funding • $12m /yr. : Road Paving to repair poor roads • $35m / yr. : Maintenance & Operations of entire transportation system • $20 / yr. : Municipal Road & Bridge Repair Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 48
  • 49. In light of the recent Global Competitiveness Report rankings from the World Economic Forum on infrastructure quality which has listed the United States at 25th place—down from 9th place in 2009—such a major disruption to federal transportation investment will produce serious losses that threaten the gradual macroeconomic recovery seen in the last few years. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 49
  • 50. The Roads to New Hampshire’s Future Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 50
  • 51. Transportation Briefing Rep. David B. Campbell (D – Nashua) Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 51
  • 52. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 52
  • 53. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 53
  • 54. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 54
  • 55. Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 55
  • 56. 2013 Red List Bridges 145 State Owned Bridges Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 353 Municipal & Other Owned Bridges 56
  • 57. Pavement Conditions 2000 2010 Red = Poor Condition Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 57
  • 58. Investments in Transportation Legend GT = Gas Tax DT = Diesel Tax GT= 19.6 cents DT= 19.6 cents GT= 31.5 cents DT= 32.7 cents GT= 32.3 cents DT= 31.0 cents GT= 26.5 cents DT= 26.5 cents GT=49.3 cents DT=54.9 cents Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce GT= 33.0 cents DT= 33.0 cents 58
  • 59. Is It Time for a Gas Tax in NH? President of The Josiah Bartlett Center MR. CHARLIE ARLINGHAUS NEW HAMPSHIRE TRANSPORTATION FUNDING Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 59
  • 60. Spending Tracks With Inflation DOT Spending and Inflation 600.00 550.00 500.00 450.00 DOT Spending Inflation 400.00 350.00 300.00 Linear (DOT Spending)
  • 61. 250.00 Gas Tax and Other Revenue 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Other Highway Fund Revenue 2009 2010 Gas Tax 2011 2012 Inflation 2013
  • 62. 230.00 The Last Decade 210.00 190.00 170.00 150.00 130.00 110.00 90.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Other Highway Fund Revenue 2009 2010 Gas Tax 2011 Inflation 2012 2013
  • 63. 2012-13 Highway Fund Revenue $600.00 Other $44.8 $500.00 $400.00 Tpk Robbery $52 Vehicle Fees: $225.7 $300.00 Other Turnpike Robbery Registration Gas Tax $200.00 $100.00 Gas Tax: $246.5 $0.00 2012-13
  • 64. Seminar 3: Why Divestiture of PSNH Assets Matters to Southern NH Time: 4:00-5:00pm Mr. William J. Quinlan Mr. Daniel Allegretti President/Chief Operating Officer of PSNH Vice President of State Government Affairs with Exelon Corporation Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 64
  • 65. Why Divestiture of PSNH Assets Matters to Southern NH President/Chief Operating Officer of PSNH MR. WILLIAM J. QUINLAN Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 65
  • 66. 2014 Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium Bill Quinlan, President & COO PSNH January 10, 2014
  • 67. New England’s Growing Over-Reliance on Natural Gas 2000 New England Generation Mix (MWH) Nuclear 31.7% Natural Gas 18.3% Oil 22.3% Biomass 7.6% Hydro Nuclear 31.2% 52.8% Natural Gas 14.9% Coal 2012 5.1% Coal Oil 3.2% 0.2% Biomass 5.4% Hydro 5.8% Other 0.0% Other 0.3% Wind 0.0% Wind 1.0% Source: ISO-NE, Net Energy by Source 67
  • 68. New England Natural Gas Delivery Prices are Increasing Significantly Compared to New York Natural Gas Delivery Costs • Historical prices => daily settlement average, 2013-14W => ICE Forward Financial Basis 68
  • 69. A Significant Amount of Generation Assets are at Risk of Retiring • ISO-NE projects 8000 MW of generation are at risk of retiring by 2020 • More than 3000 MW of generation has already announced plans to retire • Vermont Yankee – 604 MW • Norwalk Harbor – 342 MW • Salem Harbor – 749 MW • Brayton Point – 1535 MW • ISO-NE has cited the region’s over-reliance on natural gas as one of the most significant challenges to grid reliability 69
  • 70. What’s Being Proposed for New Generation? More Natural Gas and Wind Proposed New Generation Natural gas and wind make up vast majority of new proposed generation Source: ISO-NE Energy by Fuel Type 2012 & Generator Interconnection Queue January 2014 70
  • 71. What’s Being Done… • New England Governor’s Regional Energy Agreement • PSNH’s Generation Fleet – reliable, diverse & serving NH customers • Merrimack Station (coal) – 434 MW • Newington Station (oil and gas) – 400 MW • Schiller Station (coal and biomass) – 150 MW • 9 Hydro Stations – 67 MW • Total: 1050 MW The Northern Pass Project – 1200 megawatts of hydroelectric power • 71
  • 72. Is It Time for a Gas Tax in NH? Vice President of State Government Affairs of Constellation Energy MR. DANIEL ALLEGRETTI Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce 72
  • 73. Our Upcoming Events Economic Outlook Luncheon Giggles & Nibbles Comedy Night Date: Wednesday, January 15, 2014 Time: 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM Location: Holiday Inn, Nashua Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Date: Friday, February 28, 2014 Time: 6:30 – 9:30 PM Location: Crowne Plaza, Nashua The 11th Annual Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Eminence Awards Date: Friday, March 7, 2014 Time: 5:30-7:30 PM Location: Sky Meadow Country Club, Nashua 73