The Halifax IndexAn economic gut check with insights for actionMay 22nd, 2013Fred MorleyExecutive Vice-President and Chief...
The Halifax Index• A gut check on our performance• Share timely and relevant information in narrative form• Create a dialo...
The Halifax Index Approach• Broadening the definition of economic progress;• Working with research capable organizations t...
EconomicProgressQuality of LifeEconomicGrowthSustainabilityPeople
People
PeoplePopulationEducation Labour ForceWorkforceStability
PopulationPopulation EstimatesMigration, Halifax
2011-12 Migration, Benchmarks328814733250 328649701913-2000-1000010002000300040005000InternationalInterprovincialIntraprov...
EducationUniversity EnrolmentCommunity College Enrolment
Labour ForceLabour Force SizeEmployment
Labour ForceParticipation RatesUnemployment Rates
Workforce Stability10.2 10.49.68.210.011.1Halifax St.JohnsQuebecCityLondon Regina Victoria2010 2011Absence rates of full-t...
Economy
EconomyGrossDomesticProductSectorsConsumerBehaviourConstructionCommercialSpaceGatewayMovementBusinessConfidence
GDPReal GDP, Winter Publication ($2002)Per capita real GDP ($2002)
GDP Forecast – Conference Board
Sectors
Which city is Halifax’s diverse sectormix closest to?
Answer: Toronto
Consumer BehaviourRetail sales - $ millionsHousing Starts and Sales
ConstructionBuilding permitsNon-residential construction
Commercial SpaceCommercial inventory and vacancy rates
Gateway3,594,164243,5773,605,701252,847Air Passengers (En/Deplaned) Cruise Passengers2011 2012410,64929,263416,57229,569TE...
Business Confidence
Business Confidence15%64%16%5%19%59%18%4%Above Average Just Average Below Average Dont Know/NoAnswerSpring 2012 Spring 201...
Quality of Place
Quality ofPlaceSafetyAffordabilityHealthCommunityArts, Culture,andRecreation
SafetyTotal and violent crime indices
Safety15%76%2% 4% 2%19%65%2%7%1%CompletelySatisfiedMostlySatisfiedNeitherSatisfied norDissatisfiedMostlyDissatisfiedComple...
AffordabilityPersonal income per capitaMarket basket measure threshhold
AffordabilityPersons in low income – below market basket measure
HealthPerceived health – good or excellentPerceived mental health – good or excellent
CommunitySense of belonging to local communitySomewhat or very strongLife satisfactionSatisfied or very satisfied
Arts, Culture and RecreationHRM registrations in library andRecreation programs
Sustainability
SustainabilityDensityTransportation EnvironmentMunicipal FiscalSustainability
DensityPersons per km2 , urban areas# of permits and value, Regional CentreAnd rest of HRM, 2012-13Regional Centre Residua...
Transportation% of riders satisfied with transitTotal riders and hours of service
EnvironmentNovaScotiaNewfoundlandQuebecOntarioSaskatchewanBritishColumbiaDrinking water qualityA- B B-AB-C+
EnvironmentWaste per capita (tonnes) and diversion rate
Municipal Fiscal SustainabilityResidential/Commercial Tax Split, MunicipalRevenues by Source, HRM
Commercial Tax Base$5,739,143,000$6,101,700,400$6,507,667,2002010 2011 2012
Special AnalysisIs Halifax’s labour market sustainable?David Fleming – Economist
Labour Force Analysis• An expanded labour force analysis against 12 other Canadiancities• Outcomes by – gender and age• In...
Overall – Labour Force & EmploymentChange – 2006 to 2012-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebe...
Participation/Unemployment Rates20120.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityM...
Gender
Population 2012 – 000’s0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000HalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaE...
Labour Force – 000’s0 500 1000 1500 2000HalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgar...
Employment - 000’s0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800HalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipeg...
Unemployment/Participation Rates0.0% 50.0% 100.0%HalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmon...
Unemployment/ParticipationOverall Halifax 2012 Participation Rates:Male: 72.5% - 7thFemale: 67.5% - 6thOverall Halifax 201...
Why are women doing comparatively better in Halifax?One possible reason – alignment of education and growth sectorsProgram...
Age
15-24 – Labour Force and EmploymentChange 2006-2012-20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%CanadaHalif...
15-24 Unemployment/Participation Rates20120.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec...
25-44 – Labour Force and EmploymentChange 2006-2012Halifax GrowthLabour Force0.9%- 11thEmployment-1.2%- 12th-5.0% 0.0% 5.0...
25-44 Unemployment/Participation Rates2012HalifaxParticipation88.7% - 5thUnemployment6.2% - 8thHalifax had 2ndhighest incr...
45+ – Labour Force and EmploymentChange 2006-2012Halifax GrowthLabour Force30.1% - 1stEmployment30.3% - 1stHalifax alsoran...
45+ Unemployment/Participation Rates2012HalifaxParticipation57.9% - 5thUnemployment3.5% - 4thHalifax had 2ndhighest spread...
Halifax Labour Force and Employment2006-201215-24 25-44 45+Labour Force – Actual (000’s) -0.1 0.9 23.1Employment – Actual ...
Steps towards ensuring a sustainableworkforce• Labour market education for youth• Flexible work strategies to maximize pro...
Special AnalysisA Halifax Innovation Agenda
Canada’s InnovationProblemConference Board of Canada’s annual How Canada PerformsPublicationCanada particularly struggles ...
Why does innovation matter?“Innovation is essential to a high-performing economy. Overall, countries that aremore innovati...
Nova Scotia’s R & D Investment DeficitPer capita investment in R & D -2009$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600Federal Governme...
Business Intentions - Halifax
R & D – Relationship to other outcomes
Developing a Halifax Innovation Agenda• Develop more industry-driven university and collegepartnerships aimed at commercia...
Halifax Index Presentation 2013
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Halifax Index Presentation 2013

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The Halifax Index is a definitive look at Halifax's economic and community progress. It tells our city’s story – the strength of our economy, the health of our community, and the sustainability of our environment – and provides insights for actions that will strengthen and grow our city.

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Halifax Index Presentation 2013

  1. 1. The Halifax IndexAn economic gut check with insights for actionMay 22nd, 2013Fred MorleyExecutive Vice-President and Chief Economist
  2. 2. The Halifax Index• A gut check on our performance• Share timely and relevant information in narrative form• Create a dialogue that allows us to ask the right questions• Affirm actions and suggest course corrections to ourEconomic Strategy
  3. 3. The Halifax Index Approach• Broadening the definition of economic progress;• Working with research capable organizations to find the mostaccurate measures of success;• Benchmarking our progress against others;• Don’t point fingers, build partnerships.
  4. 4. EconomicProgressQuality of LifeEconomicGrowthSustainabilityPeople
  5. 5. People
  6. 6. PeoplePopulationEducation Labour ForceWorkforceStability
  7. 7. PopulationPopulation EstimatesMigration, Halifax
  8. 8. 2011-12 Migration, Benchmarks328814733250 328649701913-2000-1000010002000300040005000InternationalInterprovincialIntraprovincialInternationalInterprovincialIntraprovincialInternationalInterprovincialIntraprovincialInternationalInterprovincialIntraprovincialInternationalInterprovincialIntraprovincialInternationalInterprovincialIntraprovincialHalifax St. Johns Quebec City London Regina Victoria
  9. 9. EducationUniversity EnrolmentCommunity College Enrolment
  10. 10. Labour ForceLabour Force SizeEmployment
  11. 11. Labour ForceParticipation RatesUnemployment Rates
  12. 12. Workforce Stability10.2 10.49.68.210.011.1Halifax St.JohnsQuebecCityLondon Regina Victoria2010 2011Absence rates of full-time employees – illness,Disability, personal or family responsibility0.0210.0070.0270.0100.0000.034NovaScotiaNewfoundlandQuebecOntarioSaskatchewanBritishColumbia2011 2012Per capita days lost due to strike
  13. 13. Economy
  14. 14. EconomyGrossDomesticProductSectorsConsumerBehaviourConstructionCommercialSpaceGatewayMovementBusinessConfidence
  15. 15. GDPReal GDP, Winter Publication ($2002)Per capita real GDP ($2002)
  16. 16. GDP Forecast – Conference Board
  17. 17. Sectors
  18. 18. Which city is Halifax’s diverse sectormix closest to?
  19. 19. Answer: Toronto
  20. 20. Consumer BehaviourRetail sales - $ millionsHousing Starts and Sales
  21. 21. ConstructionBuilding permitsNon-residential construction
  22. 22. Commercial SpaceCommercial inventory and vacancy rates
  23. 23. Gateway3,594,164243,5773,605,701252,847Air Passengers (En/Deplaned) Cruise Passengers2011 2012410,64929,263416,57229,569TEUs Air Cargo2011 2012Air and cruise passengersAir cargo and twenty-foot equivalents
  24. 24. Business Confidence
  25. 25. Business Confidence15%64%16%5%19%59%18%4%Above Average Just Average Below Average Dont Know/NoAnswerSpring 2012 Spring 2013Rating of Halifax as a place to do business12%74%10%2% 2%10%77%11%1% 1%ExtremelyOptimisticModeratelyOptimisticNot VeryOptimisticNot at allOptimisticDontKnow/NoAnswerSpring 2012 Spring 2013Optimism of current economic prospects in Halifax
  26. 26. Quality of Place
  27. 27. Quality ofPlaceSafetyAffordabilityHealthCommunityArts, Culture,andRecreation
  28. 28. SafetyTotal and violent crime indices
  29. 29. Safety15%76%2% 4% 2%19%65%2%7%1%CompletelySatisfiedMostlySatisfiedNeitherSatisfied norDissatisfiedMostlyDissatisfiedCompletelyDissatisfiedSpring 2012 Spring 2013Business satisfaction with police services
  30. 30. AffordabilityPersonal income per capitaMarket basket measure threshhold
  31. 31. AffordabilityPersons in low income – below market basket measure
  32. 32. HealthPerceived health – good or excellentPerceived mental health – good or excellent
  33. 33. CommunitySense of belonging to local communitySomewhat or very strongLife satisfactionSatisfied or very satisfied
  34. 34. Arts, Culture and RecreationHRM registrations in library andRecreation programs
  35. 35. Sustainability
  36. 36. SustainabilityDensityTransportation EnvironmentMunicipal FiscalSustainability
  37. 37. DensityPersons per km2 , urban areas# of permits and value, Regional CentreAnd rest of HRM, 2012-13Regional Centre Residual HRMTotal Value Permits Total Value Permits2011 $112,138,880 313 $366,145,609 4952012 $274,183,327 321 $334,241,514 360% of Value in RC- 201123.40%% of Value in RC- 201245.10%
  38. 38. Transportation% of riders satisfied with transitTotal riders and hours of service
  39. 39. EnvironmentNovaScotiaNewfoundlandQuebecOntarioSaskatchewanBritishColumbiaDrinking water qualityA- B B-AB-C+
  40. 40. EnvironmentWaste per capita (tonnes) and diversion rate
  41. 41. Municipal Fiscal SustainabilityResidential/Commercial Tax Split, MunicipalRevenues by Source, HRM
  42. 42. Commercial Tax Base$5,739,143,000$6,101,700,400$6,507,667,2002010 2011 2012
  43. 43. Special AnalysisIs Halifax’s labour market sustainable?David Fleming – Economist
  44. 44. Labour Force Analysis• An expanded labour force analysis against 12 other Canadiancities• Outcomes by – gender and age• In 2014 – ethnicity and immigration outcomes (with NHSrelease)
  45. 45. Overall – Labour Force & EmploymentChange – 2006 to 2012-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaHalifax GrowthLabour Force11.1% - 9thEmployment9.8% - 8th
  46. 46. Participation/Unemployment Rates20120.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaHalifaxParticipation69.8% - 7thUnemployment6.1% - 7th
  47. 47. Gender
  48. 48. Population 2012 – 000’s0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000HalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaMale FemaleHalifaxGrowth 2006-2012Female: 9.4% - 7thMale: 10% - 8th
  49. 49. Labour Force – 000’s0 500 1000 1500 2000HalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaMale FemaleTwo cities with morewomen than men inlabour force (Halifax andVictoria)HalifaxGrowth 2006-2012Female: 13.7% - 4thMale: 8.5% - 10th
  50. 50. Employment - 000’s0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800HalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaFemale MaleTwo cities with morewomen than men withJobs (Halifax andVictoria)HalifaxGrowth 2006-2012Female: 13.7% - 4thMale: 8.5% - 10th
  51. 51. Unemployment/Participation Rates0.0% 50.0% 100.0%HalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaFemale MaleParticipation, 20120.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%HalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaFemale MaleUnemployment, 2012
  52. 52. Unemployment/ParticipationOverall Halifax 2012 Participation Rates:Male: 72.5% - 7thFemale: 67.5% - 6thOverall Halifax 2012 Unemployment Rates:Male: 6.8% - 7thFemale: 5.5% - 5thSpread between male/female participation rate in Halifax lowestamong cities; highest spread between unemployment rates
  53. 53. Why are women doing comparatively better in Halifax?One possible reason – alignment of education and growth sectorsProgram % of enrolled who arefemale in MaritimeuniversitiesHealth care, socialassistance and educationmade up over 50% of newjobs since 2006Health professionsSocial sciencesEducation81%62%71%
  54. 54. Age
  55. 55. 15-24 – Labour Force and EmploymentChange 2006-2012-20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaEmployment Labour ForceHalifax GrowthLabour Force-0.3%- 6thEmployment-3.4%- 6th
  56. 56. 15-24 Unemployment/Participation Rates20120.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaUnemployment Rate Participation RateHalifaxParticipation67.8% - 6thUnemployment12.3% - 6th6th highest spreadBetween UE of 15+and UE of 15-24
  57. 57. 25-44 – Labour Force and EmploymentChange 2006-2012Halifax GrowthLabour Force0.9%- 11thEmployment-1.2%- 12th-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaEmployment Labour Force
  58. 58. 25-44 Unemployment/Participation Rates2012HalifaxParticipation88.7% - 5thUnemployment6.2% - 8thHalifax had 2ndhighest increasein UE since 2006 –4.2% to 6.2%0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaUnemployment Rate Participation Rate
  59. 59. 45+ – Labour Force and EmploymentChange 2006-2012Halifax GrowthLabour Force30.1% - 1stEmployment30.3% - 1stHalifax alsoranks 1st in 55+and 65+ LFgrowth0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaWinnipegReginaEdmontonCalgaryVancouverVictoriaEmployment Labour Force
  60. 60. 45+ Unemployment/Participation Rates2012HalifaxParticipation57.9% - 5thUnemployment3.5% - 4thHalifax had 2ndhighest spreadBetween 45+ UE and15+ UE – 2.6%0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%CanadaHalifaxSt. JohnsQuebec CityMontrealLondonTorontoOttawaReginaCalgaryVancouverVictoriaUnemployment Rate Participation Rate
  61. 61. Halifax Labour Force and Employment2006-201215-24 25-44 45+Labour Force – Actual (000’s) -0.1 0.9 23.1Employment – Actual (000’s) -1.2 -1.1 22.4Labour Force - % of Total -0.4% 3.8% 96.7%Employment - % of Total -6.0% -5.5% 111.4%
  62. 62. Steps towards ensuring a sustainableworkforce• Labour market education for youth• Flexible work strategies to maximize productivity• Workforce development through partnership• Young and foreign student entrepreneurship
  63. 63. Special AnalysisA Halifax Innovation Agenda
  64. 64. Canada’s InnovationProblemConference Board of Canada’s annual How Canada PerformsPublicationCanada particularly struggles in: exports, venture capital,patents, ICT investment and connectivity, business R & DSpendingScientific research and creation of new business is high,however they lack the follow through towards commercialproducts and services
  65. 65. Why does innovation matter?“Innovation is essential to a high-performing economy. Overall, countries that aremore innovative are passing Canada on measures such as income per capita,productivity, and the quality of social programs.It is also critical to environmental protection, a high-performing education system,a well-functioning system of health promotion and health care, and an inclusivesociety. Without innovation, all these systems stagnate and Canada’s performancedeteriorates relative to that of its peers.” – CBOC• These critical systems are at the heart of our broader definition of economic andcommunity progress – and why the Halifax Index was developed.
  66. 66. Nova Scotia’s R & D Investment DeficitPer capita investment in R & D -2009$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600Federal GovernmentProvincial GovernmentBusiness EnterpriseHigher EducationPrivate Non-ProfitForeignBritish ColumbiaOntarioQuebecNewfoundlandNova ScotiaCanadaCompared to nationalaverage:• Foreign: 15%• Business: 23%• Provincial: 29%
  67. 67. Business Intentions - Halifax
  68. 68. R & D – Relationship to other outcomes
  69. 69. Developing a Halifax Innovation Agenda• Develop more industry-driven university and collegepartnerships aimed at commercialization• Mitigate the risk of new entrepreneurship through support forcluster incubation and acceleration• Foster the development of private-sector led regionalbusiness clusters around industries that are alreadysucceeding• Adjust our culture from risk-adverse to one with anabundance of support for new ideas, opportunities andpartnerships - making winning bets
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