Byron Capital Markets: The Growht of the Lithium-ion Battery Market

Jonathan Lee, Byron Capital MarketsThe Growth of the Lithium-ion Battery Market December 2011

Graphite Demand Distribution Refractories 21% Expanded Graphite & 30% Carbon Products Crucibles and Lubricants 14% Gaskets and Packing Pencils 14% 14% Other Iron and Steel 7% Source: Roskill (2009) December 2011

Two-Dimensional Growth Nickel-metal hydride battery was the pre-cursor  Uses a metal hydride as anode (typically rare earth – lanthanum)  Or Cadmium in nickel-cadmium batteries Graphite used as the anode in the lithium-ion market Growth in graphite with switch to lithium-ion market from NiMH We previously looked at the growth of batteries and electric vehicles Growth area for graphite - synthetic and natural December 2011

More than Lithium According to Argonne National Laboratory Study (2009)  Estimated Graphite:Lithium (kg/kg) ratio  NCA (lithium nickel/cobalt/aluminum): 8  LFP (lithium iron phosphate): 13  LMO (lithium manganese oxide): 15  In LTO (lithium-titanate); anode:lithium (kg/kg) ratio: 8  No graphite used in this type of Li-ion battery December 2011

Future Graphite Demand 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Surplus/Deficit 1,000,000 Total Graphite Demand 500,000 Total New Graphite - Demand 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (500,000) (1,000,000) December 2011

Possible Substitutions for graphite Synthetic Graphite Li4Ti5O12 – Lithium titanate Tin based anodes: Cu6Sn5 (Copper-Tin), FeSn5 (Iron-Tin), Carbon-Tin Al-based anodes Silicon based anodes December 2011

Anode Types and CapacityMetal Li Si Al Sn Al GraphiteLithiated Compound Li Li22Si5 Al4Li9 Li22Sn5 AlLi LiC6Theoretical Capacity (mAh/g) >3,800 >3,000 2,234 994 993 372 DendriticVolume Change (%) 323 - 300 97 9 Growth Source: Kamali and Fray December 2011

Anode Costs Just for the raw material costs:  Lithium Titanate - $23k/tonne  Copper-Tin: $16k/tonne  Iron-Tin: $19k/tonne  Co3O4-Al: $23k/tonne Does not include costs for producing anode Titanium and Tin expensive metals – Key drivers in costs Natural graphite anodes – we estimate $10k/tonne cost December 2011

Synthetic Graphite Low capacity – theoretical capacity of 372 mAh/g Good power Less energy density Better control of properties during manufacturing Expensive – Petroleum coke graphitised at 2,800 C December 2011

Lithium Titanate Long cycle life High rate capability Capacity of only 175 mAh/g Lower voltage and energy density (See right) Faster charging time – 10 minutes compared to 8 hours Recharge rates of 98% Source: Jim McDowall December 2011

Tin Based Anodes High capacity (990mAh/g) Constructed under heat and argon atmosphere for 12 hours – Makes even more expensive Limited cycle life - Deconstruction of CuSn after lithiation. Volumetric changes as well Found that volume change could be reduced by using nano-sized tin particles (Kamali and Fray, 2010) Graphite-tin were more complicated to produce using carbon nanotubes or tin-filled carbon nanofibres  May have difficulties in commercial applications  Would still use graphite in production anyhow December 2011

Aluminum based anodes Co3O4-Al  High theoretical capacity (over 900mAh/g)  However, low capacity retention due to volume change  Work performed at University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (2011)  Changed particle sizes to increase capacity retention  Range of only 60-70%  Retention after first charge – Very Low Source: Lei, Ma, Sun December 2011

Silicon Based anodes Much higher capacity (3,000 mAh/g vs. 350 mAh/g) Silicon is a crystalline structure – inflexible Expansion occurs when absorbing lithium – causes stress on crystalline structure PNNL recently had success with Si-based electrodes  Porous Si was used to allow expansion, still a crystalline structure  Carbon coated and KB carbon added  Over 3,000 mAh/g in initial capacity  1,600 mAh/g after 30 cycles – Most losses during December 2011

Conclusion Natural Graphite demand will continue to grow two fold:  Conversion to lithium-ion batteries from NiMH  Growth sector of lithium-ion batteries in vehicles Alternative anode materials far more expensive and less developed  Especially for automotive, very long lead time to get materials and parts approved before into mass production  Titanium, cobalt, and tin make other anodes expensive  Volumetric changes in batteries make other anodes unworkable, to date  Early stage in Silicon based anodes  Synthetic graphite has a tremendous energy input with graphite having a high melting point  Growth of EV’s will coincide with rising energy prices December 2011

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