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Euro Area Lending Update
Much has beenmade recentlyaboutthe “rebound”inEuroArea lendingbalancesasloanbalanceshave turned
positive onay/ybasisfor the firsttime since 2012:
p
While thisisunquestionablyapositive development, the source of the lendinggrowthisfromthe smallestsectors
(financial corporatesexcludingpensionandinsurance andloanstopensionfundsandinsurance companies) while
lendinggrowthtothe largestsegments,householdsandnon-financial corporates,remainsveryslow andlevels
remainstagnant.
To beginwith, we see below thatloanstohouseholds(blue line) andnon-financial corporations(redline)make up
mostof the loanbalances:
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Sep-98
May-99
Jan-00
Sep-00
May-01
Jan-02
Sep-02
May-03
Jan-04
Sep-04
May-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Euro Area Lending to Households, Non-Financial
Corporations, Financial Corporations and
Insurance Companies and Pension Funds, Y/Y
Euro Area Lending to Households, Non-Financial Corporations, Financial Corporations and
Insurance Companies and Pension Funds, Y/Y
1. To Households
Loans to households,the largestsector,remainnegative y/y:
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0% Sep-97
May-98
Jan-99
Sep-99
May-00
Jan-01
Sep-01
May-02
Jan-03
Sep-03
May-04
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Euro Area Lending to Each Sector, By Percentage
To Households
To Non-Financial Corporates
To Financial Corporates, Excluding Insurance and Pension
To Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds
From a level perspective,loanstothe householdsectorhave beenflattishforalongtime because,aswe will see
later,growthGermanyhouseholdlendingisoffsettingcontinuedcontractioninthe periphery:
2. To Non-Financial Corporations
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0% Sep-98
May-99
Jan-00
Sep-00
May-01
Jan-02
Sep-02
May-03
Jan-04
Sep-04
May-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Euro Area Lending to Households, Y/Y
Euro Area Lending to Households, Y/Y
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500000
Sep-97
Jun-98
Mar-99
Dec-99
Sep-00
Jun-01
Mar-02
Dec-02
Sep-03
Jun-04
Mar-05
Dec-05
Sep-06
Jun-07
Mar-08
Dec-08
Sep-09
Jun-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Sep-12
Jun-13
Mar-14
Dec-14
Euro Area Lending to Households, Level Data
Lending to Households, Level Data
Loans to non-financial corporationsare still declining:
From a level perspective,balanceshave stabilizedattheirlow levels:
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Sep-98
Apr-99
Nov-99
Jun-00
Jan-01
Aug-01
Mar-02
Oct-02
May-03
Dec-03
Jul-04
Feb-05
Sep-05
Apr-06
Nov-06
Jun-07
Jan-08
Aug-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
May-10
Dec-10
Jul-11
Feb-12
Sep-12
Apr-13
Nov-13
Jun-14
Jan-15
Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations,
Y/Y
Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Y/Y
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500000
Sep-97
May-98
Jan-99
Sep-99
May-00
Jan-01
Sep-01
May-02
Jan-03
Sep-03
May-04
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations,
Level Data
Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data
3. To Financial CorporationsExcluding Insurance Companiesand PensionFunds
Loans to financial corporationsexcluding insurance companiesandpensionfundshave surgedrecently,perhapsin
response toQE:
4. To Insurance Companiesand PensionFunds
Loans to insurance companiesandpensionfundshave surgedevenmore,perhapsinresponsetoQE:
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
Sep-97
Jun-98
Mar-99
Dec-99
Sep-00
Jun-01
Mar-02
Dec-02
Sep-03
Jun-04
Mar-05
Dec-05
Sep-06
Jun-07
Mar-08
Dec-08
Sep-09
Jun-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Sep-12
Jun-13
Mar-14
Dec-14
Euro Area Lending to Financial Corporations
Excluding Insurance and Pension Funds, Level
Data
Euro Area Lending to Financial Corporations Excluding Insurance and Pension Funds, Level
Data
From a country specificperspective,we see that loansto the householdsector continue to contract in Spain and
Ireland,while Italy is seeingmodestgrowth and Germanyis seeinga surge:
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Sep-97
May-98
Jan-99
Sep-99
May-00
Jan-01
Sep-01
May-02
Jan-03
Sep-03
May-04
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Euro Area Lending to Insurance Companies and
Pension Funds, Level Data
Euro Area Lending to Insurance Companies and Pension Funds, Level Data
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
Jan-03
Aug-03
Mar-04
Oct-04
May-05
Dec-05
Jul-06
Feb-07
Sep-07
Apr-08
Nov-08
Jun-09
Jan-10
Aug-10
Mar-11
Oct-11
May-12
Dec-12
Jul-13
Feb-14
Sep-14
Apr-15
Spain: Lending to Households, Level Data
Spain: Lending to Households, Level Data
50000
70000
90000
110000
130000
150000
170000
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Ireland: Lending to Households, Level Data
Ireland: Lending to Households, Level Data
In the non-financial corporate sector we see continuedcontraction across all these countries
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
550000
600000
650000
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Italy: Lending to Households, Level Data
Italy: Lending to Households, Level Data
1400000
1410000
1420000
1430000
1440000
1450000
1460000
1470000
1480000
1490000
1500000
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Germany: Lending to Households, Level Data
Germany: Lending to Households, Level Data
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Spain: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations,
Level Data
Spain: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data
50000
70000
90000
110000
130000
150000
170000
190000
210000
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Ireland: Lending to Non-Financial
Corporations, Level Data
Ireland: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data
450000
550000
650000
750000
850000
950000
1050000
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Italy: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations,
Level Data
Italy: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data
750000
800000
850000
900000
950000
1000000
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Germany: Lending to Non-Financial
Corporations, Level Data
Germany: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data

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Euro Area Lending Update (Grant Toch 5 30 2015)

  • 1. Euro Area Lending Update Much has beenmade recentlyaboutthe “rebound”inEuroArea lendingbalancesasloanbalanceshave turned positive onay/ybasisfor the firsttime since 2012: p While thisisunquestionablyapositive development, the source of the lendinggrowthisfromthe smallestsectors (financial corporatesexcludingpensionandinsurance andloanstopensionfundsandinsurance companies) while lendinggrowthtothe largestsegments,householdsandnon-financial corporates,remainsveryslow andlevels remainstagnant. To beginwith, we see below thatloanstohouseholds(blue line) andnon-financial corporations(redline)make up mostof the loanbalances: -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 Euro Area Lending to Households, Non-Financial Corporations, Financial Corporations and Insurance Companies and Pension Funds, Y/Y Euro Area Lending to Households, Non-Financial Corporations, Financial Corporations and Insurance Companies and Pension Funds, Y/Y
  • 2. 1. To Households Loans to households,the largestsector,remainnegative y/y: 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Sep-97 May-98 Jan-99 Sep-99 May-00 Jan-01 Sep-01 May-02 Jan-03 Sep-03 May-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Euro Area Lending to Each Sector, By Percentage To Households To Non-Financial Corporates To Financial Corporates, Excluding Insurance and Pension To Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds
  • 3. From a level perspective,loanstothe householdsectorhave beenflattishforalongtime because,aswe will see later,growthGermanyhouseholdlendingisoffsettingcontinuedcontractioninthe periphery: 2. To Non-Financial Corporations -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 Euro Area Lending to Households, Y/Y Euro Area Lending to Households, Y/Y 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000 5000000 5500000 Sep-97 Jun-98 Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Sep-03 Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 Euro Area Lending to Households, Level Data Lending to Households, Level Data
  • 4. Loans to non-financial corporationsare still declining: From a level perspective,balanceshave stabilizedattheirlow levels: -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Sep-98 Apr-99 Nov-99 Jun-00 Jan-01 Aug-01 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Y/Y Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Y/Y 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000 5000000 5500000 Sep-97 May-98 Jan-99 Sep-99 May-00 Jan-01 Sep-01 May-02 Jan-03 Sep-03 May-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data
  • 5. 3. To Financial CorporationsExcluding Insurance Companiesand PensionFunds Loans to financial corporationsexcluding insurance companiesandpensionfundshave surgedrecently,perhapsin response toQE: 4. To Insurance Companiesand PensionFunds Loans to insurance companiesandpensionfundshave surgedevenmore,perhapsinresponsetoQE: 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 Sep-97 Jun-98 Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Sep-03 Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 Euro Area Lending to Financial Corporations Excluding Insurance and Pension Funds, Level Data Euro Area Lending to Financial Corporations Excluding Insurance and Pension Funds, Level Data
  • 6. From a country specificperspective,we see that loansto the householdsector continue to contract in Spain and Ireland,while Italy is seeingmodestgrowth and Germanyis seeinga surge: 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 Sep-97 May-98 Jan-99 Sep-99 May-00 Jan-01 Sep-01 May-02 Jan-03 Sep-03 May-04 Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Euro Area Lending to Insurance Companies and Pension Funds, Level Data Euro Area Lending to Insurance Companies and Pension Funds, Level Data
  • 7. 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000 Jan-03 Aug-03 Mar-04 Oct-04 May-05 Dec-05 Jul-06 Feb-07 Sep-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Sep-14 Apr-15 Spain: Lending to Households, Level Data Spain: Lending to Households, Level Data 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 170000 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Ireland: Lending to Households, Level Data Ireland: Lending to Households, Level Data
  • 8. In the non-financial corporate sector we see continuedcontraction across all these countries 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 550000 600000 650000 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Italy: Lending to Households, Level Data Italy: Lending to Households, Level Data 1400000 1410000 1420000 1430000 1440000 1450000 1460000 1470000 1480000 1490000 1500000 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Germany: Lending to Households, Level Data Germany: Lending to Households, Level Data
  • 9. 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Spain: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data Spain: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 170000 190000 210000 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Ireland: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data Ireland: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data
  • 10. 450000 550000 650000 750000 850000 950000 1050000 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Italy: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data Italy: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data 750000 800000 850000 900000 950000 1000000 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Germany: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data Germany: Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data