While Euro Area lending balances have turned positive year-over-year for the first time since 2012, this growth comes from the smallest sectors like loans to financial corporations and insurance/pension funds. Lending to the largest sectors, households and non-financial corporations, remains slow with levels stagnant or declining. Specifically, loans to households are still negative in Spain and Ireland while growing modestly in Italy, and loans to non-financial corporations continue to contract across Spain, Ireland, Italy and Germany.
1. Euro Area Lending Update
Much has beenmade recentlyaboutthe “rebound”inEuroArea lendingbalancesasloanbalanceshave turned
positive onay/ybasisfor the firsttime since 2012:
p
While thisisunquestionablyapositive development, the source of the lendinggrowthisfromthe smallestsectors
(financial corporatesexcludingpensionandinsurance andloanstopensionfundsandinsurance companies) while
lendinggrowthtothe largestsegments,householdsandnon-financial corporates,remainsveryslow andlevels
remainstagnant.
To beginwith, we see below thatloanstohouseholds(blue line) andnon-financial corporations(redline)make up
mostof the loanbalances:
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Sep-98
May-99
Jan-00
Sep-00
May-01
Jan-02
Sep-02
May-03
Jan-04
Sep-04
May-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Euro Area Lending to Households, Non-Financial
Corporations, Financial Corporations and
Insurance Companies and Pension Funds, Y/Y
Euro Area Lending to Households, Non-Financial Corporations, Financial Corporations and
Insurance Companies and Pension Funds, Y/Y
2. 1. To Households
Loans to households,the largestsector,remainnegative y/y:
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0% Sep-97
May-98
Jan-99
Sep-99
May-00
Jan-01
Sep-01
May-02
Jan-03
Sep-03
May-04
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Euro Area Lending to Each Sector, By Percentage
To Households
To Non-Financial Corporates
To Financial Corporates, Excluding Insurance and Pension
To Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds
3. From a level perspective,loanstothe householdsectorhave beenflattishforalongtime because,aswe will see
later,growthGermanyhouseholdlendingisoffsettingcontinuedcontractioninthe periphery:
2. To Non-Financial Corporations
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0% Sep-98
May-99
Jan-00
Sep-00
May-01
Jan-02
Sep-02
May-03
Jan-04
Sep-04
May-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Euro Area Lending to Households, Y/Y
Euro Area Lending to Households, Y/Y
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500000
Sep-97
Jun-98
Mar-99
Dec-99
Sep-00
Jun-01
Mar-02
Dec-02
Sep-03
Jun-04
Mar-05
Dec-05
Sep-06
Jun-07
Mar-08
Dec-08
Sep-09
Jun-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Sep-12
Jun-13
Mar-14
Dec-14
Euro Area Lending to Households, Level Data
Lending to Households, Level Data
4. Loans to non-financial corporationsare still declining:
From a level perspective,balanceshave stabilizedattheirlow levels:
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Sep-98
Apr-99
Nov-99
Jun-00
Jan-01
Aug-01
Mar-02
Oct-02
May-03
Dec-03
Jul-04
Feb-05
Sep-05
Apr-06
Nov-06
Jun-07
Jan-08
Aug-08
Mar-09
Oct-09
May-10
Dec-10
Jul-11
Feb-12
Sep-12
Apr-13
Nov-13
Jun-14
Jan-15
Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations,
Y/Y
Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Y/Y
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500000
Sep-97
May-98
Jan-99
Sep-99
May-00
Jan-01
Sep-01
May-02
Jan-03
Sep-03
May-04
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations,
Level Data
Euro Area Lending to Non-Financial Corporations, Level Data
5. 3. To Financial CorporationsExcluding Insurance Companiesand PensionFunds
Loans to financial corporationsexcluding insurance companiesandpensionfundshave surgedrecently,perhapsin
response toQE:
4. To Insurance Companiesand PensionFunds
Loans to insurance companiesandpensionfundshave surgedevenmore,perhapsinresponsetoQE:
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
Sep-97
Jun-98
Mar-99
Dec-99
Sep-00
Jun-01
Mar-02
Dec-02
Sep-03
Jun-04
Mar-05
Dec-05
Sep-06
Jun-07
Mar-08
Dec-08
Sep-09
Jun-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Sep-12
Jun-13
Mar-14
Dec-14
Euro Area Lending to Financial Corporations
Excluding Insurance and Pension Funds, Level
Data
Euro Area Lending to Financial Corporations Excluding Insurance and Pension Funds, Level
Data
6. From a country specificperspective,we see that loansto the householdsector continue to contract in Spain and
Ireland,while Italy is seeingmodestgrowth and Germanyis seeinga surge:
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Sep-97
May-98
Jan-99
Sep-99
May-00
Jan-01
Sep-01
May-02
Jan-03
Sep-03
May-04
Jan-05
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
May-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-15
Euro Area Lending to Insurance Companies and
Pension Funds, Level Data
Euro Area Lending to Insurance Companies and Pension Funds, Level Data