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GT IBR 2012 - focus on: mainland China
1. Focus on: mainland China
International Business Report 2012 – Economy focus series
The economy The business perspective
In an effort to cut reliance on exports and The Grant Thornton International Business Report
investment in favour of domestic consumption, (IBR) surveys more than 12,000 businesses in 40
China’s economic growth rate target has been economies around the world. This report focuses on
dropped from the 8.0% in place since 2005, to 7.5%. businesses in mainland China and their expectations
Global activity has slowed sharply as worries grow for the next 12 months, as illustrated in figure 1.
about the eurozone debt crisis. Inflation sank to a The IBR survey tells us that businesses in
29-month low in June, allowing the government the mainland China remain as optimistic about their
scope to introduce measures to stimulate the economy as they were in 2011. However, at 33%,
economy. The People's Bank of China announced a optimism is well down on 2010 levels of 60%.
surprise reduction in policy interest rates on 5 July, Expectations for employment are down on 2011,
less than a month after the previous interest rate and below the BRIC average. A shortage of
reduction was announced. orders/reduced demand remains the greatest
The key indicators1 are highlighted below: constraint on business growth prospects – at 44%
• economic output expanded by 7.6% year-on- in Q2-2012 this is above the BRIC average and
year in Q2-2012, its slowest rate since early 2009, is the highest result since 2009.
down from 8.1% in Q1-2012 as a slowdown in
exports and the property market weighed on
growth
• the trade surplus widened to US$31.7bn in June,
the largest since January 2009, as exports grew
by 11.3% and imports by 6.3% year-on-year
• foreign direct investment grew by 0.5% in June
compared with 12 months previously, ending six
consecutive months of year-on-year falls
• the central bank lowered the base one-year
lending rate to 6% on 5 July, and the one-year
deposit rate to 3%
• the CPI measure of inflation dropped to 2.2% in
June, down from 3.0% in May.
1
source: International Monetary Fund, The Economist and Experian.
2. The outlook
Figure 1: Key indicators for businesses
The economy is forecast to expand by 8.2% in 2012,
and to average 8.1% up to 2016. Consumption is Mainland China compared with the BRICs 2010 2011 Q2-2012 Q2-2012
expected to become an increasingly important Chi Chi Chi BRICs
contributor as incomes rise, but investment will Outlook for the economy over the next
12 months
remain the key driver of expansion, despite a
Net optimism over pessimism 60% 33% 33% 41%
deceleration of spending on infrastructure. Net
exports are expected to detract from growth as Change in employment levels
demand from Europe further weakens. Government Net hiring expectations 40% 39% 24% 36%
fiscal policy is expected to be expansionary,
providing a modest boost to economic growth. Constraints on expansion
The government will continue to monitor the Shortage of orders/reduced demand 37% 40% 44% 39%
property market. Measures to prevent a housing Cost of finance 42% 30% 37% 41%
bubble, include new taxes and regulations to deter Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2012
residential property speculation, curbing bank
lending to property developers and expanding the
low-cost housing programme, began to take effect in
the latter half of 2011. Property taxes introduced in
Shanghai and Chongqing are now being rolled out
in Beijing and Guangzhou.
Demographics are likely to be a negative factor
influencing growth. The government’s one-child
policy means that the working-age population will
begin shrinking some time toward the middle of the
decade.
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3. International Business Report results
The results reveal that global business optimism Figure 2: Outlook for the economy over the next 12 months: Q4-2010 to Q2-2012
rose marginally in Q2-2012 with net 23% of Net percentage businesses indicating optimism less those indicating pessimism
businesses optimistic2 for their economies over the 70
60
next 12 months. Businesses sentiment for the next 12
50
months in mainland China is positive with net 33% 40
of businesses optimistic, up from net 23% in the first 30
quarter. 20
10
The sovereign debt crisis continues to weigh
0
heavily on businesses confidence in Europe; Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012
business optimism across the eurozone stands at net Mainland China 42 58 43 14 22 23 33
BRICs 54 57 44 25 34 41 41
-5%. However confidence in the BRIC3 economies
Global 23 34 31 3 0 19 23
remains strongly positive at 41% and confidence in
the United States increased from 46% to 50%, the Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2012
highest level recorded since 2005.
Optimism/pessimism
• business optimism increased in mainland China
in the second quarter, improving from net 23%
to net 33%
• however, confidence remains well below levels
observed this time last year (43%)
• business sentiment remained unchanged for the
BRICs standing at net 41%
• globally, optimism levels have also risen,
although it remains below the level seen in
mainland China and the BRICs.
2
the net figure is the proportion of companies reporting they are optimistic
less those reporting they are pessimistic.
3
the BRIC economies are Brazil, Russia, India and China
4. Employment Figure 3: Employment history: Q4-2010 to Q2-2012
• net 24% of Chinese businesses expect Net percentage businesses
employment to grow in the year ahead, 70
60
significantly lower than expectations in Q1 and
50
slightly lower than expectations in the BRICs 40
• actual employment growth reported by Chinese 30
businesses in Q1 (14%) was significantly lower 20
10
than expected the previous quarter (53%).
0
Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012*
Expected mainland China 52 34 59 33 37 53 24
Expected BRICs 56 38 55 41 41 50 36
Actual mainland China 34 40 33 44 33 14 –
Actual BRICs 34 39 40 45 39 30 –
*Q2 2012 actual data will be documented in Q3 2012
Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2012
Revenue expectations Figure 4: Revenue expectations: Q4-2010 to Q2-2012
• revenue expectations are marginally lower in Q2 Net percentage businesses indicating an increase less those indicating a decrease
compared to Q1 for businesses in mainland 90
80
China
70
• net 74% expect to increase revenue compared to 60
net 79% in Q1 50
• expectations are in line with Q1 for businesses in 40
30
the BRICs and globally, with net 74% in the
20
BRICs and net 52% globally expecting to 10
increase revenue in the year ahead. 0
Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012
Mainland China 69 85 84 69 74 79 74
BRICs 74 79 78 70 72 74 74
Global 46 55 55 45 43 52 52
Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2012
5. Profitability expectations Figure 5: Profitability expectations: Q4-2010 to Q2-2012
• net 61% of businesses in mainland China expect Net percentage businesses indicating an increase less those indicating a decrease
to increase profits over the next 12 months 90
80
• this is down from net 74% in Q2-2011
70
• globally, just 38% of businesses are expecting to 60
see profits increase in the year ahead. 50
40
30
20
10
0
Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012
Mainland China 51 83 74 50 61 67 61
BRICs 65 72 66 56 58 61 58
Global 40 47 42 33 31 39 38
Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2012
Constraints
Figure 6: Constraints on expansion: Q2-2012
• a shortage of orders/reduced demand is cited as Average percentage of businesses rating constraint 4 or 5 on a scale of 1 to 5 where 1 is not a constraint
and 5 is a major constraint
being the greatest constraint on business
expansion for Chinese businesses (44%), its Shortage of orders/reduced demand 44
39
highest level since 2009
Cost of finance 37
• the cost of finance is cited by 37% of Chinese 41
businesses and 41% of businesses in the BRIC Availability of skilled workforce 31
40
economies.
Regulations/red tape 29
39
Shortage of working capital 25
30
Shortage of long term finance 20
29
ICT infrastructure 20
24
Transport infrastructure 18
27
Mainland China BRICs
Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2012
6. Accessing finance Figure 7: Accessing finance: Q2-2012
• the majority of Chinese businesses are happy Percentage of businesses
with the level of support provided by lenders; 80
70
62% of class lenders as supportive or very
60
supportive towards their business, compared 50
with 72% of BRIC businesses 40
• moving forward, 11% of Chinese businesses 30
20
expect finance to become more accessible, whilst
10
37% expect it to become less accessible. 0
62 72 0 5 11 33 37 25
Supportive Unsupportive More Less
Lender support Accessibility of finance – next 12 months
Mainland China BRICs
Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2012
Growth markets Figure 8: Growth markets: Q2-2012
• Chinese businesses have identified local, Percentage of businesses
domestic markets as their target markets for Domestic 84
growth (84%)
Europe 16
• despite the slowdown in Europe, 16% of
businesses cite the region as a key target market Africa 10
for growth, followed by Africa (10%). Latin America 9
North America 8
Asia Pacific 7
Other 3
Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2012
