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'The First Annual Not "The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report" Report' by Grant Goddard

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An analysis of data concerning the progress of digital radio broadcasting in the UK radio market, by Grant Goddard in August 2010.

An analysis of data concerning the progress of digital radio broadcasting in the UK radio market, by Grant Goddard in August 2010.

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'The First Annual Not "The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report" Report' by Grant Goddard Presentation Transcript

  • 1. The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report ® Grant Goddard radio specialist www.grantgoddard.co.uk August 2010
  • 2. Contents Grant Goddard radio specialist  UK DAB & digital radio forecasts  UK radio receiver hardware data  UK digital radio listening data The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 2
  • 3. Grant Goddard radio specialist UK DAB & digital radio forecasts The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 3
  • 4. Grant Goddard UK DAB receiver forecast – Digital Radio Development Bureau radio specialist DAB receiver penetration (% adults, % households) 55 34.5 35.3 2010Q2 32.3 2009Q3 33.4 33.0 29.7 2008Q4 2009Q2 28.7 22.3 2007Q4 2008Q3 21.7 20.3 2007Q2 16.0 2006Q4 19.5 15.3 2006Q3 2007Q1 15.3 13.6 11.1 5.3 2004Q4 2005Q4 4.5 2004Q3 10.5 4.4 2004Q2 5 3.9 2004Q1 10 9.1 8.1 15 2005Q3 20 2006Q2 25 2007Q3 30 27.3 27.3 35 32.1 40 2009Q1 DAB receiver penetration falls below forecast 45 2010Q1 50 RAJAR actual (% adults) 2010Q4 2010Q3 2009Q4 2008Q2 2008Q1 2006Q1 2005Q2 2005Q1 0 DRDB 2007 forecast (% households) [source: RAJAR, Digital Radio Development Bureau] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 4
  • 5. Grant Goddard UK DAB receiver forecast – Digital Radio Development Bureau radio specialist Cumulative DAB receiver unit sales (million at year-end) 25 20 15 10 10.52 8.53 6.45 5 actual 2004 DRDB forecast 2005 DRDB forecast 2006 DRDB forecast 2007 DRDB forecast 4.44 2.72 0 1.29 2004 2005 2006 2007 DAB receiver sales lower than all industry forecasts 2008 2009 2010 [source: Digital Radio Development Bureau] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 5
  • 6. UK DAB receiver forecast – Digital Radio Working Group Grant Goddard radio specialist DAB radio receiver sales (% of total radio receiver sales) 55% 50% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 22% 20% 20% 18% 15% 10% 21% Government forecast of DAB radio receiver sales very unlikely to be achieved 13% 8% actual (DRDB four-quarter m oving average) DRWG aspirational tim etable (January 2009) 5% trendline 0% 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 [source: Digital Radio Development Bureau, Digital Radio Working Group] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 6
  • 7. Grant Goddard UK digital radio listening forecast - Ofcom radio specialist Radio listening via digital platforms (% of radio listening at year-end) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Radio listening via digital much lower than Ofcom forecast 30 16.6 20 11.0 10 18.3 20.9 12.5 5.9 actual (RAJAR year-end) 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 0 Ofcom forecast (Novem ber 2006) [source: RAJAR, Ofcom] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 7
  • 8. Grant Goddard UK digital radio listening forecast – Digital Radio Working Group radio specialist Radio listening via digital platforms (% of radio listening at year-end) 55 50 actual (RAJAR year-end) 50 DRWG aspirational tim etable (Jan 2009) trendline 45 Government forecast of digital listening unlikely to be achieved 40 35 30 25 20.9 18.3 20 16.6 15 11.0 12.5 10 5.9 5 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 0 [source: RAJAR, Digital Radio Working Group] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 8
  • 9. Grant Goddard UK digital radio listening forecast – Digital Britain radio specialist Radio listening via digital platforms (% of radio listening at year-end) 68% 58% 50% 50% 43% 26% 24% 31% 28% 36% 33% 56% 49% 43% 38% Trendline predicts 50% criterion to be achieved yearend 2018, rather than 2013 or 2015 20.9% Digital Britain ('organic grow th' forecast June 2009) Digital Britain ('drive to digital' forecast June 2009) 2018 Q4 2017 Q4 2016 Q4 2015 Q4 2014 Q4 2013 Q4 2012 Q4 2011 Q4 2010 Q4 2009 Q4 2008 Q4 2007 Q4 2006 Q4 2005 Q4 2004 Q4 0% historical data (RAJAR) historical data trendline [source: RAJAR, Digital Britain, Value Partners] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 9
  • 10. UK digital commercial radio listening target - RadioCentre Grant Goddard radio specialist Commercial radio listening via digital platforms (% of commercial radio listening at year-end) 50% 50% actual (RAJAR year-end) RadioCentre target (Jan 2007) 40% 30% 30% 20% 18.1% 19.0% 19.7% 2008 2009 Commercial radio listening via digital much lower than RadioCentre target 16% 14.0% 11.0% 10% 5.0% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 [source: RAJAR, RadioCentre] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 10
  • 11. Grant Goddard radio specialist UK radio receiver hardware data The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 11
  • 12. Grant Goddard UK DAB radio receiver sales radio specialist 964 Quarterly DAB receiver sales (‘000 units per quarter) 1,000 796 162 828 863 179 200 750 121 119 160 681 153 140 120 38 335 366 358 299 17 40 363 382 308 287 338 294 134 102 111 183 34 18 13 5 21 100 Year-on-year growth in DAB 80 radio receiver sales negative during 60 2009 28 40 20 4 20 1 -1 -10 53 39 205 245 500 483 489 510 101 250 180 -4 -6 0 0 quarterly DAB receiver sales ('000) [left axis] 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2008 Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q2 2008 Q1 2007 Q4 2007 Q3 2007 Q2 2007 Q1 2006 Q4 2006 Q3 2006 Q2 2006 Q1 2005 Q4 2005 Q3 2005 Q2 2005 Q1 2004 Q4 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 2004 Q1 2003 Q4 2003 Q3 2003 Q2 -20 year-on-year change (%) [right axis] [source: Digital Radio Development Bureau] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 12
  • 13. Grant Goddard UK radio receiver sales radio specialist UK radio receiver sales – four quarter moving average (‘000 units per annum) 7,101 1,899 1,988 2,070 7,284 8,030 Q3 2008 22% 21% Only 21% of new radios sold in the UK are DAB 2,180 8,227 Q2 2008 2,174 8,209 Q1 2008 2,114 8,140 Q4 2007 2,006 7,906 Q3 2007 1,824 7,854 Q2 2007 9,495 Q3 2006 7,978 9,892 Q2 2006 Q1 2007 10,169 Q1 2006 8,062 10,550 Q4 2005 4,000 Q4 2006 10,657 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 10,611 Q1 2005 6,000 10,678 8,000 1,761 1,734 1,680 1,575 10,000 1,566 1,493 1,407 1,208 1,051 951 12,000 DAB receivers as percentage of total receiver sales 8% 9% 10% 12%13%14% 14%17%18%18% 19% 20%20% 21%21% 22% Unit sales of DAB radios declining from 2008 peak 2,000 analogue radio unit sales ('000) Q1 2010 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2009 Q4 2008 0 DAB radio unit sales ('000) [source: GfK/Digital Radio Development Bureau] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 13
  • 14. Grant Goddard UK DAB radio receiver ownership radio specialist Percentage of adults (15+) who own a DAB radio receiver at home Take-up of DAB hardware is slowing 41 45 10.5 35.3 34.5 33.4 33.0 32.3 29.7 28.7 22.3 20.3 16.0 15.3 15.3 13.6 5.3 4.5 4.4 5 3.9 10 9.1 8.1 15 11.1 18 20 19.5 22 25 21.7 30 27.3 27.3 32 35 32.1 40 RAJAR 2010Q2 2010Q1 2009Q4 2009Q3 2009Q2 2009Q1 2008Q4 2008Q3 2008Q2 2008Q1 2007Q4 2007Q3 2007Q2 2007Q1 2006Q4 2006Q3 2006Q2 2006Q1 2005Q4 2005Q3 2005Q2 2005Q1 2004Q4 2004Q3 2004Q2 2004Q1 0 Ofcom [source: RAJAR, Ofcom] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 14
  • 15. Grant Goddard UK DAB radio receiver consumer likelihood to purchase radio specialist “How likely is it that your household will get a DAB radio in the next 12 months?” (“6 months” in 2006 and 2007) - % of responses 80 76 74 64 60 55 No evident increase in intention to purchase DAB radio receivers 40 28 20 17 20 19 16 17 7 7 0 likely [source: Ofcom] 2006 unlikely 2007 Q1 The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 2009 Q1 don't know 2010 Q1 15
  • 16. Grant Goddard UK consumer access to digital radio radio specialist Access to digital radio platforms (% of UK households) 100 92 90 80 73 Consumer accessibility to digital radio much higher for platforms other than DAB 70 60 50 40 35 30 20 10 0 internet digital TV DAB radio [Source: Ofcom & RAJAR, Q1 2010] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 16
  • 17. Grant Goddard radio specialist UK digital radio listening data The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 17
  • 18. Grant Goddard UK radio listening by platform radio specialist 8.5% 24.6% 20.9% 66.6% 67.0% 21.1% 66.1% 9.3% 12.7% 21.1% 66.2% 24.0% 12.5% 20.1% 67.5% 66.7% 13.0% 18.3% 68.6% 12.5% 12.9% 18.7% 68.4% 12.8% 12.6% 17.9% 9.5% 17.8% 72.7% 69.5% 9.4% 13.9% 16.6% 12.9% 80% 15.0% 21.1% 100% 74.0% UK radio listening by platform - hours listened (% of total adult hours listened) 66.1% 40% 71.1% 60% Analogue platform is two-thirds of radio listening 20% 0% 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 analogue digital unspecified [source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 18
  • 19. Grant Goddard UK radio listening by platform radio specialist 80% 66.1% 71.1% 74.0% 72.7% 69.5% 68.4% 68.6% 67.5% 66.2% 66.1% 66.6% 66.7% 67.0% UK radio listening by platform - hours listened (% of total adult hours listened) 60% Digital platforms listening is recorded as increasing, partly because less ‘unspecified’ listening is being recorded 20% 21.1% 13.9% 9.4% 9.5% 12.6% 12.9% 13.0% 12.5% 12.7% 12.8% 12.5% 9.3% 8.5% 12.9% 15.0% 16.6% 17.8% 17.9% 18.7% 18.3% 20.1% 21.1% 21.1% 20.9% 24.0% 24.6% 40% 0% ANALOGUE 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 TOTAL DIGITAL 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 UNSPECIFIED 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 [source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 19
  • 20. Grant Goddard UK radio listening by platform radio specialist UK radio listening by platform - hours listened (% of total adult hours listened) 80% 60% RAJAR definition of internet listening excludes on-demand, ‘listen again’, podcasts, internet-only radio and online music (Last.fm, Spotify, etc.) 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 4.0% 4.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.9% 2.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 20% 7.0% 8.6% 9.9% 10.8% 11.0% 11.3% 11.4% 12.7% 13.1% 13.3% 13.7% 15.1% 15.8% 40% LISTENING VIA TV LISTENING VIA INTERNET DIGITAL UNSPECIFIED 0% LISTENING VIA DAB 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 [source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 20
  • 21. Grant Goddard UK commercial radio listening by platform radio specialist UK listening to commercial radio by platform (% of adult 15+ listening) Commercial radio platform share: DAB = 13% digital: internet, 2.6% digital: unspecified, 3.4% digital: DTV, 5.0% digital: DAB, 13.4% unspecified, 8.5% all analogue, 67.1% [source: RAJAR, Q2 2010] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 21
  • 22. Grant Goddard UK BBC radio listening by platform radio specialist UK listening to BBC radio by platform (% of adult 15+ listening) BBC radio platform share: DAB = 18% digital: internet, 2.5% digital: unspecified, 0.7% digital: DTV, 3.3% digital: DAB, 17.9% unspecified, 8.3% all analogue, 67.3% Dial-up [source: RAJAR, Q2 2010] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 22
  • 23. 0 The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 talkSPORT Total LBC (UK) Total Absolute Radio Gold Network (UK) BBC Radio 3 BBC 6 Music BBC World Service BBC Radio 7 Total Kerrang! Planet Rock Total XFM (UK) The Hits Smash Hits Radio Sunrise Radio National Heat 1Xtra from the BBC BBC Asian Network UK Jazz FM Absolute 80s Five Live Sports Extra Absolute Classic Rock 0.1 1.9 Total Kiss Network Chill 2.1 Total Smooth Radio 0.1 2.1 Total Real Radio Panjab Radio 2.4 Total Magic 8 0.1 2.7 2 Galaxy Network (UK) UK listening to national radio stations NME Radio 4.8 3.8 4 Classic FM BBC Radio Five Live 5.8 6 Heart Network (UK) 9.3 10 BBC Radio 1 12.5 14 BBC Radio 4 16 15.9 18 BBC Radio 2 Grant Goddard radio specialist Share of UK radio listening (% of adult 15+ hours listened) 12 Listening to digital radio stations [red] remains at low levels [source: RAJAR, Q2 2010] 23
  • 24. Grant Goddard UK digital radio stations on ‘Digital One’ national DAB platform radio specialist National digital radio stations internet business model commercial commercial donations donations unsigned music government commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial commercial FreeSat station Freeview owner 1999 Planet Rock 2010 TIML Absolute 80s 2009 Premier Christian Radio 2009 UCB UK 2009 Amazing Radio 2008 BFBS Radio 2009 IPC NME Radio 2009 Panjab Radio 2009 Folder Media Fun Kids 2006 GCap Media TheJazz 2000 GCap Media Capital Life 2000 C4 + UBC Oneword Radio 1999 GCap Media Core 2000 Saga PrimeTime Radio 2000 Bloomberg Talkmoney 2000 ITN ITN News % SHARE OF ALL RADIO LISTENING % SHARE OF LISTENING VIA DIGITAL PLATFORMS % SHARE OF LISTENING VIA DAB PLATFORM local DAB launched on national DAB national DAB digital platforms RAJAR Q2 2010 trial period (expired) % share of total radio listening (adults) weekly reach (adults) 0.50 0.15 closed 2010 closed 2008 closed 2008 closed 2008 closed 2008 closed 2006 closed 2003 6 months 3 months 8 months 6 months 4 months 718,000 288,000 0.13 0.07 253,000 155,000 Many commercial digital radio stations have closed closed 2002 0.85 3.48 5.43 [source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 24
  • 25. Grant Goddard UK radio listening to digital stations radio specialist UK listening to digital-only radio stations - ‘000 hours per week (adults 15+) Listening to digitalonly radio stations boosted in 2010 by BBC Radio 6 Music 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Satellite TOTAL (com m ercial + BBC) COMMERCIAL RADIO 2010Q2 2010Q1 2009Q4 2009Q3 2009Q2 2009Q1 2008Q4 2008Q3 2008Q2 2008Q1 2007Q4 2007Q3 2007Q2 2007Q1 2006Q4 2006Q3 2006Q2 2006Q1 2005Q4 2005Q3 2005Q2 2005Q1 2004Q4 2004Q3 Dial-up 2004Q2 2004Q1 2003Q4 2003Q3 2003Q2 2003Q1 0 BBC RADIO [source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 25
  • 26. Only 5% of commercial Goddard Grant radio listening is to exclusively digital radio specialist content UK commercial digital-only radio station listening UK listening to commercial digital-only radio stations (adults 15+) 50% 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.0 30% 33% 28% 29% 26% 2.3 2.1 40% 36% 27% 26% 24% 24% 23% 22%23%22% 20% Only 22% of commercial radio listening via digital platforms is to exclusively digital content 0.7 0.6 2 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.7 3 3.0 3.4 4 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.0 5 1 5.1 5.5 6 10% 0% 2010Q2 2010Q1 2009Q4 2009Q3 2009Q2 2009Q1 2008Q4 2008Q3 2008Q2 2008Q1 2007Q4 2007Q3 2007Q2 2007Q1 2006Q4 2006Q3 2006Q2 2006Q1 2005Q4 2005Q3 2005Q2 2005Q1 2004Q4 2004Q3 2004Q2 2004Q1 2003Q4 2003Q3 2003Q2 2003Q1 0 listening to com m ercial digital-only radio stations as % of all com m ercial radio listening [left axis] listening to com m ercial digital-only radio stations as % of digital listening to com m ercial radio [right axis] [source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 26
  • 27. Only 4% of BBC Grant Goddard radio listening is to radio specialist exclusively digital content UK BBC digital-only radio station listening UK listening to BBC digital-only radio stations (adults 15+) 40% 4.0 5 3.5 2.8 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 20% 19% 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.1 22% 30% 16%16%16% 17% 16% 15%14%15%15% 14% 13% 10% Only 16% of BBC radio listening via digital platforms is to exclusively digital content 2010Q2 2010Q1 2009Q4 2009Q3 2009Q2 2009Q1 2008Q4 2008Q3 2008Q2 2008Q1 2007Q4 2007Q3 2007Q2 2007Q1 2006Q4 2006Q3 2006Q2 2006Q1 2005Q4 2005Q3 2005Q2 2005Q1 2004Q4 2004Q3 2004Q2 2004Q1 2003Q4 0% 2003Q3 2003Q2 0.0 0 2003Q1 0.0 1 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.5 2 1.9 2.6 3 2.7 3.2 4 listening to BBC digital-only radio stations as % of all BBC radio listening [left axis] listening to BBC digital-only radio stations as % of digital listening to BBC radio [right axis] [source: RAJAR] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 27
  • 28. 23.1 26 20.6 20.5 20.4 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 18.9 17.8 14.0 17.5 9.3 12 2008 Q2 11.9 14 13.3 13.5 16 17.9 15.3 18 16.8 20 2008 Q1 22 19.9 24 23.5 Weekly reach of radio platforms (% of adults 15+) 2010 Q2 UK radio listening by platform 2010 Q1 Grant Goddard A separate RAJAR ‘MIDAS’ survey (that includes non-linear radio consumption) demonstrates that radio specialist internet-delivered radio reaches almost as much of the UK adult population as the DAB radio platform 7.3 10 8 2.7 4 3.6 6 2 internet platform 2009 Q1 2008 Q4 2008 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q3 2007 Q2 2007 Q1 2006 Q4 2006 Q3 2006 Q2 2006 Q1 2005 Q4 2005 Q3 2005 Q2 2005 Q1 2004 Q4 2004 Q3 2004 Q2 2004 Q1 2003 Q4 2003 Q3 2003 Q2 2003 Q1 2002 Q4 2002 Q3 0 DAB platform [source: RAJAR MIDAS] The First Annual Not ‘The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report’ Report © Grant Goddard: August 2010 28