Business Forecasting
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Business Forecasting

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Business Forecasting

Business Forecasting

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Business Forecasting Business Forecasting Presentation Transcript

  • Business Forecasting
  • Business Forecasting
  • Business Forecasting
  • Business Forecasting
    • Used to try to predict the future
    • Uses two main methods:
    • Qualitative – seeking opinions on which to base decision making
      • Consumer panels, focus groups, etc
    • Quantitative – using statistical data to help inform decision making
      • Identifying trends
      • Moving averages – seasonal, cyclical, random
      • Extrapolation - simple
  • Business Forecasting
    • Some businesses use alternative methods:
    • Astrologers!
    • Is such a strategy any better or worse than using quantitative or qualitative methods?
  • Business Forecasting
  • Business Forecasting
    • Costs and Benefits of Forecasting:
    • Benefits:
      • Aids decision making
      • Informs planning and resource allocation decisions
      • If data is of high quality, can be accurate
  • Business Forecasting
    • Costs:
      • Data not always reliable or accurate
      • Data may be out of date
      • The past is not always a guide to the future
      • Qualitative data may be influenced by peer pressure
      • Difficulty of coping with changes to external factors out of the business’s control – e.g. economic policy, political developments (9/11?), natural disasters – hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.