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Testing models of Driver Behaviour Ben Lewis-Evans      b.lewis.evans@rug.nl
Why?   Do people drive like this?
Why?   Do people drive like this?
The Answer?              MODELS!
Some have been tested
Utility                 ModelsTrading off risks and  safety to get the   optimal benefit
Utility                                  Models                  ―… people… run                  risks, but they do       ...
AttitudeModels           Attitude           Intention       Behaviour
AttitudeModels     ―…accidents are    not caused by risky      attitudes but by     risky behaviour‖                Rothen...
But most have not
So? Time for SCIENCE!
Experiment One     Behavioural Adaptation         to Road Width                 Lewis-Evans & Charlton (2006)
METHOD DS9 Driving Simulator         49 participants (25 M 24 F)    All full licence holders           23.8 years old on a...
METHOD            Four Roads             PracticeNarrow(W)                Control (E)  - 2m              Wide (S)         ...
Narrow(W)                  Wide (S)    Control (E)
RESULTS                                                   Speed                                                    *      ...
RESULTS                                                   Ratings                                       *                 ...
RESULTS       What was different?     ―Road Width‖ 10 people , only 1     correct―Nothing‖ 8 people  Narrow road had more ...
CONCLUSIONS           Experiment 1 Impact of (narrow) road width on speed       Associated with increases       in risk an...
Experiment Two    Speed and the assessment    of risk, difficulty, effort and               comfort                  Lewis...
Fuller, McHugh& Pender (2008)           Digitally altered videoIncreasing 5 mph increments     3 road types           Task...
Fuller, et al (2008)Residential
―…task difficultyand feelings of risk are continuously present variableswhich inform driver   decisions…‖             Full...
METHOD   47 participants (25 M 22 F)                 ~20-21 years oldTwo roads: urban & rural     Observation & Driving  9...
METHOD   Speed data + Subjective ratingsTask difficulty  Feeling of RiskCrash risk                    Habit/Typicality    ...
RESULTS                       Averaged Driving Residential – Fuller et al        Residential – Lewis-Evans &         (2008...
RESULTS         Averaged Driving  Residential
RESULTS       Relative to free speed                      choiceResidential
CONCLUSIONS              Experiment 2  Fuller et al (2008) not replicatedThreshold or U-shaped trends Task difficulty, fee...
Experiment Three       Close following -     risk, difficulty, effort         and comfort                   Lewis-Evans, d...
Subjective impressions;Constant or Threshold?
METHODMETHOD 40 participants (20 M 20 F)17 Inexperienced, 23 Experienced Residential road, left & right side9 randomly pre...
METHOD   Distance + Subjective ratings Task difficulty   Feeling of RiskCrash risk                          Typicality    ...
RESULTS   Averaged
RESULTS   Relative to free choice
CONCLUSIONS               Experiment 3   Threshold trends again   Task difficulty, feeling of risk, &   effort highly corr...
Experiment Four     Speed maintenance       under cognitive            load               Lewis-Evans, de Waard, &        ...
Question     What is the impact       of secondary      mental workload     on these trends?
METHOD                     Four conditions (1 min) Baseline sets speed                     Baseline +/- 0 to 30 km/h  Coun...
Paced auditory serialPASAT     addition task      6       5          44 2       3        1         …
METHOD   53 participants (21 M 32 F)    Speed data + Subjective ratingsTask difficulty  Feeling of Risk                   ...
RESULTS                     Ratings Baseline vs Return to baseline
RESULTS                                                   Ratings        Baseline vs Experimental                         ...
RESULTS                                                   Ratings         Experimental vs PASAT                      *    ...
RESULTS                                                   Speed        Baseline vs Return to baseline                     ...
RESULTS                                                   Speed         Experimental vs PASAT                             ...
CONCLUSIONS               Experiment 4  Threshold trends still apparent     Mental workload shifts them Speed control habi...
Experiment Five     Unfelt emotions and            speed                   Lewis-Evans, de                Waard, Jolij & B...
Emotions are important       Behaviour is maladaptive       without them
i.e. Vulcans are wrong
Unfelt Emotions? Emotions: physiological reaction    Feelings: conscious awareness
Much of Driving is automatic    So can unfelt emotions affect it?
How to test?     Ethics committees take a dim           view of the above
Did you notice anything?
GodzillaDid you notice anything?
METHOD Masked Images       800 ms        32 ms        800 ms    Deception: Images part of a         ―memory task‖
METHOD  113 initial participants (39 M 74 F)- 8 saw (6 M 2 F)  - 19 ―suspicious‖ (7 M 12 F)      = 85 participants (26 M 5...
METHOD     Images Masks     Arousal 2.76 Valence 4.97                                       800 msNeutral    Arousal 2.78 ...
High Arousal          Scared             Negative              Excited Low                                          HighVa...
RESULTS   Speed
RESULTS         PhysiologicalTask effect   HR     HRV Order x Image effect   Neg to Neu      HR      HRV        Neu to Neg...
RESULTS        Subjective &               Memory taskNo consistent effects on ratingsof risk or effort         Good perfor...
CONCLUSIONS             Experiment 5Images supressed time on task effects  Unconscious influences on drivingNo support for...
In Conclusion    People may run   risks, but they do    not usually feel          them          But what they do          ...
The MoonThank You       Questions? b.lewis.evans@rug.nl
ReferencesFuller, R., Bates, H., Gormley, M., Hannigan, B., Stradling, S., Broughton, P., Kinnear, N., & O’Dolan, C. (2008...
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Testing models of Driver Behaviour

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A summary of five years of work looking at testing psychological models that seek to explain why people drive the way that they do. This presentation was originally given at VTI in Sweden, Feb, 2012.

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Transcript of "Testing models of Driver Behaviour"

  1. 1. Testing models of Driver Behaviour Ben Lewis-Evans b.lewis.evans@rug.nl
  2. 2. Why? Do people drive like this?
  3. 3. Why? Do people drive like this?
  4. 4. The Answer? MODELS!
  5. 5. Some have been tested
  6. 6. Utility ModelsTrading off risks and safety to get the optimal benefit
  7. 7. Utility Models ―… people… run risks, but they do not take them‖Wagenaar (1992)
  8. 8. AttitudeModels Attitude Intention Behaviour
  9. 9. AttitudeModels ―…accidents are not caused by risky attitudes but by risky behaviour‖ Rothengatter et al (1989)
  10. 10. But most have not
  11. 11. So? Time for SCIENCE!
  12. 12. Experiment One Behavioural Adaptation to Road Width Lewis-Evans & Charlton (2006)
  13. 13. METHOD DS9 Driving Simulator 49 participants (25 M 24 F) All full licence holders 23.8 years old on averageSpeed, ratings, & open questions
  14. 14. METHOD Four Roads PracticeNarrow(W) Control (E) - 2m Wide (S) + 3m
  15. 15. Narrow(W) Wide (S) Control (E)
  16. 16. RESULTS Speed * * * ** statistically significant difference (at least p < .05)
  17. 17. RESULTS Ratings * * **statistically significant difference (at least p < .05)
  18. 18. RESULTS What was different? ―Road Width‖ 10 people , only 1 correct―Nothing‖ 8 people Narrow road had more ―Curves‖ 14 people Many non-factual responses e.g. narrow road had more trucks
  19. 19. CONCLUSIONS Experiment 1 Impact of (narrow) road width on speed Associated with increases in risk and task difficulty Awareness of road width changes low
  20. 20. Experiment Two Speed and the assessment of risk, difficulty, effort and comfort Lewis-Evans & Rothengatter (2009)
  21. 21. Fuller, McHugh& Pender (2008) Digitally altered videoIncreasing 5 mph increments 3 road types Task difficulty and Risk (feeling & probability)
  22. 22. Fuller, et al (2008)Residential
  23. 23. ―…task difficultyand feelings of risk are continuously present variableswhich inform driver decisions…‖ Fuller, et al 2008
  24. 24. METHOD 47 participants (25 M 22 F) ~20-21 years oldTwo roads: urban & rural Observation & Driving 9 randomly presented speeds (10 km/h increments + Free choice)
  25. 25. METHOD Speed data + Subjective ratingsTask difficulty Feeling of RiskCrash risk Habit/Typicality Effort Comfort
  26. 26. RESULTS Averaged Driving Residential – Fuller et al Residential – Lewis-Evans & (2008) Rothengatter (2009)
  27. 27. RESULTS Averaged Driving Residential
  28. 28. RESULTS Relative to free speed choiceResidential
  29. 29. CONCLUSIONS Experiment 2 Fuller et al (2008) not replicatedThreshold or U-shaped trends Task difficulty, feeling of risk, & effort highly correlatedHabit appears to be important
  30. 30. Experiment Three Close following - risk, difficulty, effort and comfort Lewis-Evans, de Waard, & Brookhuis (2010)
  31. 31. Subjective impressions;Constant or Threshold?
  32. 32. METHODMETHOD 40 participants (20 M 20 F)17 Inexperienced, 23 Experienced Residential road, left & right side9 randomly presented 50 km/hfollowing distances(0.5 to 4.0 sec + Freechoice)
  33. 33. METHOD Distance + Subjective ratings Task difficulty Feeling of RiskCrash risk Typicality Effort Comfort
  34. 34. RESULTS Averaged
  35. 35. RESULTS Relative to free choice
  36. 36. CONCLUSIONS Experiment 3 Threshold trends again Task difficulty, feeling of risk, & effort highly correlated Habit appears to be important No impact of Experience or side of road
  37. 37. Experiment Four Speed maintenance under cognitive load Lewis-Evans, de Waard, & Brookhuis (2011)
  38. 38. Question What is the impact of secondary mental workload on these trends?
  39. 39. METHOD Four conditions (1 min) Baseline sets speed Baseline +/- 0 to 30 km/h Counter balanced Baseline +/- 0 to 30 km/h + PASAT Return to Baseline
  40. 40. Paced auditory serialPASAT addition task 6 5 44 2 3 1 …
  41. 41. METHOD 53 participants (21 M 32 F) Speed data + Subjective ratingsTask difficulty Feeling of Risk Typicality Effort Comfort
  42. 42. RESULTS Ratings Baseline vs Return to baseline
  43. 43. RESULTS Ratings Baseline vs Experimental * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **statistically significant difference (at least p < .05)
  44. 44. RESULTS Ratings Experimental vs PASAT * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * **statistically significant difference (at least p < .05)
  45. 45. RESULTS Speed Baseline vs Return to baseline * * * * * **statistically significant difference (at least p < .05)
  46. 46. RESULTS Speed Experimental vs PASAT * * **statistically significant difference (at least p < .05)
  47. 47. CONCLUSIONS Experiment 4 Threshold trends still apparent Mental workload shifts them Speed control habitual Unintentional Speeding
  48. 48. Experiment Five Unfelt emotions and speed Lewis-Evans, de Waard, Jolij & Brookhuis (2012)
  49. 49. Emotions are important Behaviour is maladaptive without them
  50. 50. i.e. Vulcans are wrong
  51. 51. Unfelt Emotions? Emotions: physiological reaction Feelings: conscious awareness
  52. 52. Much of Driving is automatic So can unfelt emotions affect it?
  53. 53. How to test? Ethics committees take a dim view of the above
  54. 54. Did you notice anything?
  55. 55. GodzillaDid you notice anything?
  56. 56. METHOD Masked Images 800 ms 32 ms 800 ms Deception: Images part of a ―memory task‖
  57. 57. METHOD 113 initial participants (39 M 74 F)- 8 saw (6 M 2 F) - 19 ―suspicious‖ (7 M 12 F) = 85 participants (26 M 59 F) Speed, subjective, bio
  58. 58. METHOD Images Masks Arousal 2.76 Valence 4.97 800 msNeutral Arousal 2.78 Valence 4.86 32 msNegative Arousal 6.59 Valence 1.80 32 ms
  59. 59. High Arousal Scared Negative Excited Low HighValence Valence Neutral Masks Bored Relaxed Low Arousal
  60. 60. RESULTS Speed
  61. 61. RESULTS PhysiologicalTask effect HR HRV Order x Image effect Neg to Neu HR HRV Neu to Neg HR HRV
  62. 62. RESULTS Subjective & Memory taskNo consistent effects on ratingsof risk or effort Good performance on the ―memory task‖
  63. 63. CONCLUSIONS Experiment 5Images supressed time on task effects Unconscious influences on drivingNo support for any specific model Gender?
  64. 64. In Conclusion People may run risks, but they do not usually feel them But what they do not feel may still affect them
  65. 65. The MoonThank You Questions? b.lewis.evans@rug.nl
  66. 66. ReferencesFuller, R., Bates, H., Gormley, M., Hannigan, B., Stradling, S., Broughton, P., Kinnear, N., & O’Dolan, C. (2008). The Conditions for Inappropriate High Speed: A Review of the Research Literature from 1995 to 2006. London: Department for Transport.Fuller, R., McHugh, C., & Pender, S. (2008). Task difficulty and risk in the determination of driver behaviour. Revue Européenne De Psychologie Appliquée/European Review of Applied Psychology, 58(1), 13-21.Lewis-Evans, B., & Charlton, S. G. (2006). Explicit and implicit processes in behavioural adaptation to road width. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 38(3), 610-617.Lewis-Evans, B., & Rothengatter, T. (2009). Task difficulty, risk, effort and comfort in a simulated driving task— Implications for Risk Allostasis Theory. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 41(5), 1053-1063.Lewis-Evans, B., de Waard, D., & Brookhuis, K. A. (2010). Thats close enough—A threshold effect of time headway on the experience of risk, task difficulty, effort, and comfort. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 42(6), 1926-1933.Lewis-Evans, B., de Waard, D., & Brookhuis, K. A. (2011). Speed maintenance under cognitive load – Implications for theories of driver behaviour. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 43(4), 1497-1507.Lewis-Evans, B., de Waard, D., Jolij, J., & Brookhuis, K. A. (2012). What You May Not See Might Slow You Down : Masked Images and Driving. PloS One, 7(1), e29857.Rothengatter, J. A., De Bruin, R. A., & Rooijers, A. J. (1989). The effects of publicity campaigns and police surveillance on the attitude-behaviour relationship in different groups of road users. Proceedings of the Second European Workshop on Recent Developments in Road Safety Research, France. 197- 202.Wagenaar, W. A. (1992). Risk taking and accident causation. In J. F. Yates (Ed.), Risk-Taking Behaviour . , Englewood Cliffs, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
  67. 67. All images belong to their respective copyright holders

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