Under the Lens - 04-18-13-sub - GMTP -MAY-2013-Slowing Global Growth
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Under the Lens - 04-18-13-sub - GMTP -MAY-2013-Slowing Global Growth

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Under the Lens - 04-18-13-sub - GMTP -MAY-2013-Slowing Global Growth Under the Lens - 04-18-13-sub - GMTP -MAY-2013-Slowing Global Growth Presentation Transcript

  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Impact: Signs of Slowing Rolling Over Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth GLOBAL RISK Driver$: Aggregated Risk Metric: 47% - Economic Risk: 60% • IMF’s World Economic Outlook - Reduces Global Growth Outlook • IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report - • Austerity Policy Dead : Central Bank Policy Reliance MACRO SITUATION Driver$: Macro Economic Indicators: #1 (of 7) Macro Surprise Index Driver$: Macro Economic Indicators: #2 (of 7) Cumulative Global PMI Driver$: Macro Economic Indicators: #6 (of 7) Consensus Earning Estimates • Emerging 5 Year Global Trends • Easing at the Zero Bound: Beyond QE & the “Foolproof Way” REGIONAL Driver$: Japan - the Epicenter of the next Financial Crisis Within 18-24 • US Recovery Rolling Over Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global GrowthPOLICY NOT WORKING – Monetary, Fiscal nor Public Policy Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth 2 Weeks Ago Updated Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Japan is to save us all? IMFs Lagarde Is "Deliberately, Decisively, Desperately Optimistic“ Zero Hedge 04-18-13 UK’s Osborne (Austerity) girds for battle with IMF Financial Times 04-18-13 Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global GrowthJAPAN - Recap Since Shinzo Abe took power and Abenomics".• Japan is the globes biggest debtor as a percentage of GDP both in total debt and sovereign debt. It is a magnitude larger global problem than Europe and worsening rapidly,• Japan is in the third straight quarter of recession at -3.5%,• Japan experiencing first Negative Quarterly Current Account and Trade Deficits,• A 50% over-valued Yen has hurt confidence, investment and competitive position,• IMF warned Japanese debt is "unstable or "unpayable within the current projections,• Japans QE 9 and QE10 were complete failures. They are lessons for the rest of the world,• Japan is the now the "New Front" in Global Currency Wars as it begins aggressive central bank balance sheet expansion. The new BOJ Governor is firmly committed to immediate Monetary Expansion,• Japan is also presently the Global Front Runner in Outright Monetization (OMF),• BOJ was pressured by the newly elected regime to rip up government debt. The BOJ Governor subsequently retired,• Significant Yen Devaluation and Nikkei market appreciation has occurred in anticipation of an additional one quadrillion yenbeing created,• Shinzo Abe through the BOJ has now establishment of an extremely aggressive BOJ Policy of 2% Inflation within 2 Years.• INSOLVENT: • Debts are 23X your tax revenues = Insolvency • Doubling Monetary in 2 years is extremely experimental with these existing debt levels, • What they are trying to do is devalue the currency to attempt to become more competitive while holding their rates market flat. • Japan will lose control of rates, since leaving the zone of insolvency is impossible now. • A 1% increase in interest rates would cost 255 of tax revenue = Insolvency • "the BOJ is monetizing at a rate around 75% of the Fed on an economy that is one-third the size of the US!" • How could anyone expect that they will get their money back at the value it is presently being placed at??
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth DRIVER$ STRUCTURAL CHANGE  Developed economy governments are insolvent  The process of deleveraging and global rebalancing is underway  Outsized dislocations from “Moral Hazard & Unintended Consequences” of policy actions  Shorter and more volatile economic cycles that are globally synchronized  Drop of confidence in policymakers, institutions and the “system” at large  Increased risk of geopolitical tensions and social conflict  Market prices only reflect fair value by accident and in passing  The loss of central bank independence with likely unintended consequences  Ongoing battle between deflation and reflationary forces Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Global Financial Repression The Robbery of Savers, the Retired, and the Elderly Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • Global Macro Tipping Points April 18th, 2013 Limits of Global Growth Impact: Signs of Slowing Rolling Over Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLensThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USETHE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION AREINTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, andany analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading andinvesting can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentaryis only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examinethe risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You shouldnever invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risksprior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way asubstitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement ofthis Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may makeare your sole responsibility.THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OFFUTURE RESULTS. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens