Macro Analytics - 05-15-12 - Analytics I - Andrew Joseph

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In this first of a three part series, Gordon T Long and Andrew Joseph discuss the Macro Analytics of the market.

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Macro Analytics - 05-15-12 - Analytics I - Andrew Joseph

  1. 1. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  2. 2. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I Gordon T Long GordonTLong.com Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  3. 3. MACRO ANALYTICS Andrew Joseph Principal: GoldenPhi Editor & Analyst: Triggers.ca Publishers: Triggers Media Publications Inc Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  4. 4. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  5. 5. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  6. 6. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  7. 7. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  8. 8. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I APRIL Reports GMTP – 189 Pages • Risk Levels & Assessment • Tipping Points • Macro Issues (US, EU, Asia) • Macro Market Drivers MATA – 203 Pages • Technical Analysis • Fundamental Analysis • Risk Analysis MMC – 31 Pages TRIGGER$ – 34 Pages • Macro Message – Theme SUPPORTING AUDIO GMTP – 30 Minutes / 35 Slides MATA – 20 Minutes / 23 Slides Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  9. 9. GordonTLong.com Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  10. 10. Macro Analytics April 17th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  11. 11. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  12. 12. THESIS 2012: FINANCIAL REPRESSION GordonTLong.com Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  13. 13. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I OUR APPROACH - Macro Analytics We take a completely different approach to Techno-Fundamental Analysis. It is best summarized as follows: TIME FRAME DURATION APPROACH KEY TOOLS Longer Term 18 Months + Fundamental Analysis Financial Metrics Intermediate 12 Months Risk Analysis Global Macro Analysis Tipping Points - Pivots Short Term Less than 90 Days Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Principle, WD Gann, JD Hurst, Bradley Model, Proprietary Mandelbrot Fractal Generator The Global Macro Analysis, which is so prevalent in our articles and on our Tipping Points site, plays the critical role of bridging our highly analytic Technical Analysis with our detailed Fundamental Analysis. We have found that, in the short term, the markets are driven by emotion and sentiment. In the longer term, they are driven by financial fundamentals. As Warren Buffett is often quoted as saying: “In the short term the market is a slot machine but in the long term it is a weighing machine.” We have found that the transition shows a lagging correlation between changes in the Global Macro, followed by Corporate Earnings, then followed by the sell side analyst community estimates. Our focus within the Global Macro is: i) Quantification of Risk, ii) Establishment of pivots through the mapping of Tipping Points, and iii) Identification of ever shifting competitive financial drivers to corporate profitability. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  14. 14. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  15. 15. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I MACRO SUBJECT DISCUSSION DATE GUEST SLIDES TIME (Min) EURO EXPERIMENT - SOROS 4/24/2012 John Rubino 42 37 JAPANIZATION - KOO 4/26/2012 John Rubino 40 39 GLOBAL IMBALANCES - STIGLITZ 4/28/2012 John Rubino 26 24 GENERATIONAL CYCLES 5/01/2012 Charles Hugh Smith 18 27 US HOUSING MARKET 5/03/2012 Charles Hugh Smith 15 24 DOOMED MIDDLE CLASS 5/05/2012 Charles Hugh Smith 22 21 GROWTH: Fake Numbers 5/08/2012 Ty Andros 26 31 GROWTH: REAL versus Nominal 5/10/2012 Ty Andros 36 30 GROWTH: Consequences of the Lies 5/12/2012 Ty Andros 20 36 ===== ===== 256 269 4 ½ Hours Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  16. 16. Macro Analytics April 17th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  17. 17. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  18. 18. Macro Analytics April 21st, 2012 EURO EXPERIMENT – Why the Situation is Getting Worse => Weakening Euro Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  19. 19. Macro Analytics April 21st, 2012 => Weakening Euro Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  20. 20. Macro Analytics April 21st, 2012 => Weakening Euro Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  21. 21. Macro Analytics April 26th, 2012 “JAPANIZATION” – Richard Koo => Volatile YEN & CARRY Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  22. 22. Macro Analytics April 26th, 2012 “JAPANIZATION” – Richard Koo Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  23. 23. Macro Analytics April 26th, 2012 “JAPANIZATION” – Richard Koo Japan’s GDP Grew in spite of Massive Loss of Wealth and Private Sector De-leveraging (Sep. 1990=100) (Sep.1990=100, Seasonally Adjusted) 140 130 Nominal GDP (Right Scale) Real GDP 120 (Right Scale) 115 Cumulative 100 100 90-05 GDP Likely GDP Path Supported by w/o Government Action Government 80 85 Action: ~ ¥2000 trillion 60 70 40 55 Last seen in 1973 down Cumulative 87% Loss of 20 40 Wealth on Land Price Index in Six Major Cities Shares and (Commercial, Left Scale) Real Estate 0 25 ~ ¥1500 trillion 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Sources: Cabinet Of f ice, Japan Real Estate Institute => Volatile YEN & CARRY Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  24. 24. Macro Analytics April 26th, 2012 “JAPANIZATION” – Richard Koo Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  25. 25. CHARLES HUGH SMITH => SHRINKING US CONSUMPTION GROWTH RATE Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  26. 26. Macro Analytics May 1st, 2012 GENERATIONAL CYCLES SOURCE: dshort.com Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  27. 27. Macro Analytics May 1st, 2012 GENERATIONAL CYCLES = >SHRINKING US CONSUMPTION GROWTH RATE Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  28. 28. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 => Weakness in INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY COMPLEX Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  29. 29. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  30. 30. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  31. 31. Macro Analytics May 8th, 2012 ECONOMIC GROWTH – Fake Numbers! => Shrinking REAL Economic Growth in Developed Countries Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  32. 32. Macro Analytics May 8th, 2012 ECONOMIC GROWTH – Fake Numbers! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  33. 33. Macro Analytics March 24th, 2012 EURO EXPERIMENT Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  34. 34. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 $48 TRILLION Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  35. 35. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 $27.3 T Increase in Replacement Contracts $3.9T Increase in Counterparty Risk Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  36. 36. Macro Analytics April 17th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  37. 37. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I APRIL Reports GMTP – 189 Pages • Risk Levels & Assessment • Tipping Points • Macro Issues (US, EU, Asia) • Macro Market Drivers MATA – 203 Pages • Technical Analysis • Fundamental Analysis • Risk Analysis MMC – 31 Pages TRIGGER$ – 34 Pages • Macro Message – Theme SUPPORTING AUDIO GMTP – 30 Minutes / 35 Slides MATA – 20 Minutes / 23 Slides Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  38. 38. Macro Analytics April 17th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I Andrew Joseph Principal: GoldenPhi Publishers: Triggers Media Publications Inc Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  39. 39. Macro Analytics May 15th, 2012 MACRO ANALYTICS - I Gordon T Long Andrew Joseph GordonTLong.com Principal: GoldenPhi Publishers: Triggers Media Publications Inc Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_AnalyticsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  40. 40. DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USETHE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION AREINTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, andany analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading andinvesting can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentaryis only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examinethe risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You shouldnever invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risksprior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way asubstitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement ofthis Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may makeare your sole responsibility.THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OFFUTURE RESULTS. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics

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