Long Wave - 06-09-12 - The Great Gamble
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  • Individual manufacturing PMI readings across Europe continue pointing toward a deeper recession in the currency union with the overall euro zone PMI slipping to 45.1 in May. Germany’s safe-haven status hasn’t prevented the country’s manufacturing sector from slowing in tandem with its neighbors. Germany’s May’s PMI print declined to 45.2 from 46.2 a month prior, its lowest reading since June 2009. PMI’s for France and Italy, declined to 44.7 and 44.8 in May, respectively. Following the 2008 financial crisis the overall euro zone manufacturing PMI bottomed in February 2009 at 33.5.

Transcript

  • 1. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 THE GREAT GAMBLE Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 2. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 BERNANKE BOX• ELECTION YEAR: This is an election year and the Federal Reserve hastraditionally ALWAYS done everything in its power during the run up to the electionto support the incumbent President. It is considered a "privilege of office" and youcan bet Obama is both counting on and expecting it!• QE III WILL NOT WORK: Unconventional policy is effective when the issue isSystemic Stress however it is less so when Growth is the concern. Central bankliquidity can lubricate a private sector in seizure but then becomes limited!Bernanke and his minions at the Federal Reserve are acutely aware of this. It is thewrong tool at the wrong time.• GLOBAL PRESSURES: Chairman "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke as a pivotal boardmember of the Bank of International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland (the centralbank to the central banks) has tremendous pressures to conform to the agenda ofthis small cadre of central planners . Bernanke knows the American standard mustbe subjugated for the larger good of what these unelected central bankers deem,behind opaque closed doors, to be the urgent solution for an escalating andunstoppable global financial crisis. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 3. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 ELECTION YEAR Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 4. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 ELECTION YEAR Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 5. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 ELECTION YEAR Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 6. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 QE III WON’T WORK! "Unconventional policy is effective when the issue is Systemic Stress; It is less so when Growth is the concern" Central bank liquidity can lubricate a private sector in seizure but then is limited! "Deleveraging cycles mute the effect of monetary policy on growth." Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 7. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 QE III WON’T WORK! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 8. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 QE III WON’T WORK! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 9. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 QE III WON’T WORK! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 10. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 QE III WON’T WORK! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 11. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 QE III WON’T WORK! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 12. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 QE III WON’T WORK! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 13. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 GLOBAL PRESSURES Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 14. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 GLOBAL PRESSURES Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 15. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 GLOBAL PRESSURES Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 16. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 GLOBAL PRESSURES Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 17. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 COLLATERAL CONTAGION Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 18. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 Market Fragility Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 19. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 Credit Markets – Systemic Risk Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 20. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 Pavlovian Response Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 21. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 Goldman Sach’s Global Swirlogram Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 22. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 Earnings Deceleration Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 23. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 Slower Payroll Growth Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 24. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 CONTRACTING PE RATIOS Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 25. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 CONTRACTING PE RATIOS Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 26. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 DATES TO WATCH Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • 27. This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report June 9th, 2012 THE GREAT GAMBLE DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.