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Global insights audio-slides-11-14-11

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  • What's the deal with Austria? Well there have been persistent rumors about a downgrade, but furthermore, Austrian banks are famously exposed to Eastern Europe. And now you see stuff about how Slovenian yields are surging.Too many fires to put out.For a good background story on Austrian banks and exposure to Eastern Europe, see this NYT piece from last year.Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/oh-crap-austria-2011-11#ixzz1dgL8xHUlSlovenian Bond Yield Breaks 7%, First Time Since Euro Entryhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-11/slovenian-bond-yield-breaks-7-first-time-since-euro-entry.htmlCDS= 395Slovenian bond yields started to advance since voters rejected pension changes in a June referendum. The spread versus German debt at the time was 147 basis pointsSlovenia, which holds early elections next month, was cut by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings on the government’s collapse, the poor economic outlook and a weak banking industry. The former Yugoslav republic is also a victim of its “proximity” to Italy, which is struggling to fend off an investor crisis of confidence.“The worry is that turmoil in Italy will last for some time, pushing Slovenian bond yields even higher,”
  • The Telegraph reports Eurozone bail-out fund has to resort to buying its own debtThe European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) last week announced it had successfully sold a €3bn 10-year bond in support of Ireland.However, The Sunday Telegraph can reveal that target was only met after the EFSF resorted to buying up several hundred million euros worth of the bonds.Sources said the EFSF had spent more than € 100m buying up its own bonds to help it achieve its funding target after the banks leading the deal were only able to find about €2.7bn of outside demand for the debt.The failure of the EFSF will increase pressure on the European Central Bank to effectively become the lender of last resort for the eurozone, a move it has strongly resisted. Bizarre SetupThe EFSF raises money by selling bonds that few investors want. So it buys its own debt effectively raising no cash. Is this supposed to work?Given there are:still no terms on the EFSF debt, agreements on leverage, amount of guarantees, etc., the amazing thing is not that the EFSF had to buy some of its debt, but rather anyone else was interested at all.This helps explain why the IMF went on a tour of Russia and China begging them to buy the garbage. No one else wants it, and the EFSF suspected as much in advance.
  • Transcript

    • 1. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded November 14th, 2011 CONTAGION BROADENING Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    • 2. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded November 14th, 2011 WHO ARE THESE MEN? “Neither Tremonti nor Monti!” Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    • 3. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded November 14th, 2011 SPAIN Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    • 4. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded November 14th, 2011 SPAIN Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    • 5. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded November 14th, 2011 AUSTRIA => CEE => HUNGARY – SLOVENIA UNFUNDABLE YIELDS HUNGARIAN 10 YEAR = 8.33% SLOVENIA 10 YEAR = 7.14% Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    • 6. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded November 14th, 2011 EFSF FAILING FAST Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    • 7. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded November 14th, 2011 ITALY Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    • 8. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded November 14th, 2011 CONTAGION BROADENING DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights