Global insights audio-slides-10-31-11
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  • 1- EFSF GOES BEGGINGI Would like to read some quotes I jotted down during my readings of the China – Japan EFSF visit2- DERIVIATIVES BLOWING UP - SWAPSBoA - Bert's Round TableErste Group - Austrian Financing - Hungarian & Romanian SubsidiariesGermany "Raises" €55.5 Billion, or 1% Of Its Debt/GDP Ratio, Thanks To Derivative "Accounting Error"ISDA - Statement made by Legal Council NOT Board nor Review Committee Tavakoli => Greek Credit Default Swaps Are A Sham And It's No SurpriseMAULDIN’S SCENARIO – As a lead into Italy >>>>>
  • M1 – Ambrose Evans=Pritchard (Telegraph)"Data released by the European Central Bank show that real M1 deposits in Portugal have fallen at an annualized rate of 21pc over the past six months, buckling violently in September. "The M1 data – cash and current accounts – is watched by experts as a leading indicator for the economy six months to a year ahead. It has been an accurate warning signal for each stage of the crisis since 2007." (The Telegraph) CHARTVORTEX" ‘Portugal appears to have entered a Grecian vortex and monetary trends have deteriorated sharply in Spain, with a decline of 8.4pc,' said Simon Ward, from Henderson Global Investors. Mr. Ward said the ECB must cut interest rates ‘immediately' and launch a full-scale blitz of quantitative easing of up to 10pc of eurozone GDP. [Shades of Martin Wolf!] Portugal is rapidly descending to Greek status. Yet another banking crisis looms.A mix of fiscal austerity and monetary tightening by the ECB earlier this year appear to have tipped the Iberian region into a downward slide. "The trends are less awful in Ireland and Italy, suggesting that both are rescuable if the ECB acts aggressively," said Mr Ward. A shrinking money supply is dangerous for countries with a high debt stock. Portugal’s public and private debt will reach 360pc of GDP by next year, far higher than in Greece. And where monetary shrinkage arrives, economic deterioration is always next. But just to make sure of that, Portugal has just set the first of many dates for a General Strike. Mark November 24th on your calendars. This is when Greece officially becomes Portugal.MY READINGSFinance Minister Vitor Gaspar told a press conference that Portugal was "at the heart of the crisis" affecting the eurozone and that the floundering world economy "will lead to a contraction of gross domestic product of 2.8 percent, following 1.9 percent this year," in Portugal. The government had previously envisaged the economy would shrink by 2.3 percent in 2012 and 1.8 percent this year. The Bank of Portugal had put the estimates at 2.2 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. Gaspar said a 3.4 billion-euro hole in the books since the beginning of the year was behind the stricter programme than that recommended by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund last May.  Portugal in May received a 78-billion-euro bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, conditioned on a tough austerity programme to be executed over three years. The country needs to reduce its public deficit from 9.8 percent of gross domestic product in 2010 to 5.9 percent by the end of this year. Tens of thousands of people flooded the streets of Lisbon on Saturday to protest against Passos Coelho's budget and the demands imposed by the EU and IMF amid crippling unemployment which stands at 12.3 percent. ..
  • Spain's third-quarter unemployment rose to 21.5%9% NPL's on CajasDefaults on loans granted by banks, savings banks, cooperatives and credit institutions (EFC) to individuals and companies in August stood at 7.14%. This is the highest level since November 1994, according to the Bank of Spain.According to the provisions of Bulletin GesifAxesor tracking delinquencies and entrepreneurship, the default rate of banks in Spain will end the year 2011 about 8% as it will keep the upward trend in the last months of the year. With the rising default rate and the continuing difficulties of access to credit would not be surprising that the ratio of non-compliance continues to grow 9%

Global insights audio-slides-10-31-11 Global insights audio-slides-10-31-11 Presentation Transcript

  • This chart accompanies the podcast recorded October 31st, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recorded October 31st, 2011 EU GOES BEGGING TO: CHINA, JAPAN. G20 Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recorded October 31st, 2011 ITALY Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recorded October 31st, 2011 PORTUGAL Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recorded October 31st, 2011 SPAIN Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recorded October 31st, 2011 WATCH THE LANDESBANKS & CAJAS Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recorded October 31st, 2011 POT POURRI Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsightsThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recorded October 31st, 2011 POT POURRI DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights