This document contains slides and charts that accompany a podcast recorded on August 19th, 2011. The slides discuss market reactions to comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel that lowered expectations for an imminent resolution to the Eurozone debt crisis at an upcoming EU summit. Investors sold off risk assets in response. One chart shows the spread between French and German bond yields was over 1300 basis points above its valuation. The document concludes with disclosure statements about the educational purpose of the content and risks of trading and investing.
Governor Olli Rehn: Dialling back monetary restraint
Podcast Slides on Euro Debt Crisis
1. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
August 19th, 2011
UNPAYABLE & INEXTINGUISHABLE
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
2. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
August 19th, 2011
UNPAYABLE & INEXTINGUISHABLE
MERKEL THROWS 'WET RAG' ON EU BAILOUT EXPECTATIONS - MARKET SELLS OFF
Merkel Tempers EU Summit Hopes WSJ
Euro Leaders’ Crisis Campaign Bogs Down BL
Merkel Warns Against High Hopes in Europe WSJ Video
German Chancellor Angela Merkel expects agreement on a package of measures aimed at solving the euro-zone debt crisis, but
officials are already playing down high hopes for resolution,
G-20 Magic Starts Wearing Off WSJ Video
The suggestion of a deal to resolve the euro-zone crisis by Oct. 23 boosted risky bets early Monday, but later suggestions that the
deadline might be too ambitious sent investors back into the arms of safe retreats
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
3. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
August 19th, 2011
UNPAYABLE & INEXTINGUISHABLE
French-German Spread
Spread versus Euro: US$
1300 pips OVER Valuation
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
4. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
August 19th, 2011
UNPAYABLE & INEXTINGUISHABLE
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
5. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
August 19th, 2011
UNPAYABLE & INEXTINGUISHABLE
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
6. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
August 19th, 2011
UNPAYABLE & INEXTINGUISHABLE
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
7. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
August 19th, 2011
UNPAYABLE & INEXTINGUISHABLE
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
8. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
August 19th, 2011
UNPAYABLE & INEXTINGUISHABLE
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
9. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
August 19th, 2011
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
10. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
August 19th, 2011
UNPAYABLE & INEXTINGUISHABLE
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE
THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE
INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and
any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and
investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary
is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine
the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should
never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks
prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a
substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of
this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make
are your sole responsibility.
THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF
FUTURE RESULTS.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
Editor's Notes
MERKEL THROWS 'WET RAG' ON EU BAILOUT EXPECTATIONS - MARKET SELLS OFF Merkel Tempers EU Summit Hopes WSJ Euro Leaders’ Crisis Campaign Bogs Down BL Merkel Warns Against High Hopes in Europe WSJ VideoGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel expects agreement on a package of measures aimed at solving the euro-zone debt crisis, but officials are already playing down high hopes for resolution,G-20 Magic Starts Wearing Off WSJ VideoThe suggestion of a deal to resolve the euro-zone crisis by Oct. 23 boosted risky bets early Monday, but later suggestions that the deadline might be too ambitious sent investors back into the arms of safe retreats
I show here a very simple correlation chart showing the EURUSD and the spread between French OATs and German Bunds, a spread which has soared to an all time spread now that France is once again the target of vigilantes on fears of an imminent French downgrade. According to this alone, the EURUSD is now about 1300 pips rich, an ES-implied level of just about 1,000. We expect reality to rear its ugly head very soon.