Global insights audio-slides-09-07-11
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Global insights audio-slides-09-07-11

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  • DEVASTATING LABOR DAY MONDAY IN EUROPEDeutsche Bank CEO Just Gave A Terrifying Speech In Frankfurt"It is an open secret that numerous European banks would not survive having to revalue sovereign debt held on the banking book at market levels." "In recent weeks, the distrust of the financial markets has spread to the banks because they are now suffering from the debt crisis in Europe and have a lot of exposure to, for example, Greek bonds.“"Since the financial crisis, some European banks have lost a third or more of their market capitalization," "Most institutions have a rating of "below the book value or at best." There are three major stress factors crushing Euro banks right now, he says: the debt crisis, structural factors and financial regulation. With them together, it will be hard for the European banks to increase their revenues. "Many countries and households would have to reduce their debt. The mortgage business and consumer loans were [the few things] driving growth. In addition, there's the problem of shrinking populations in several European countries, which negatively affects the growth of credit markets." "All this reminds one of the autumn of 2008," said Ackermann. "We should resign ourselves to the fact that the 'new normality' is characterized by volatility and uncertainty." The implication is that not just Eurozone countries are buckling under the pressure of Greece's, France's, and Italy's debts, but banks are too. It sounds like a desperate call for a bailout. Now. recapitalization is not the answer. Ackermann duly shot down the measure suggested by IMF head Christine Lagarde at Jackson Hole. He said recapitalizing the banks urgently, as Lagarde suggested, would be "counterproductive." "A forced recapitalization would give the signal that politicians do not themselves believe in the measures" they are negotiating. GERMAN DEVELOPMENT BANK KFW CHIEF SCHROEDER- SITUATION OF BANKING INDUSTRY IS "MUCH MORE DRAMATIC THAN IN 2008 DEXIA - A MAJOR TROUBLED BELGIUM BANK FIRED ITS PRESIDENT
  • The long rumored Swiss Franc peg has arrived...The Swiss National Bank is tired of the surging Franc, and is taking intervention to the next level.Here's the press release the SNB just put out:The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development.  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc. With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.  Even at a rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, the Swiss franc is still high and should continue to weaken over time. If the economic outlook and deflationary risks so require, the SNB will take further measures.This kind of floor/peg has been speculated on in recent weeks, but this is still an unbelievable move that will require ongoing Franc printing by the SNB to work.The ECB has put out this brief statement:The Governing Council of the European Central Bank has been informed by the Swiss National Bank about its decision to “no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20.”The Governing Council takes note of this decision, which has been taken by the Swiss National Bank under its own responsibility.Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/wow-swiss-national-bank-takes-intervention-to-a-new-level-franc-plunges-2011-9#ixzz1XC0IMmhu
  • The long rumored Swiss Franc peg has arrived...The Swiss National Bank is tired of the surging Franc, and is taking intervention to the next level.Here's the press release the SNB just put out:The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development.  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc. With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.  Even at a rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, the Swiss franc is still high and should continue to weaken over time. If the economic outlook and deflationary risks so require, the SNB will take further measures.This kind of floor/peg has been speculated on in recent weeks, but this is still an unbelievable move that will require ongoing Franc printing by the SNB to work.The ECB has put out this brief statement:The Governing Council of the European Central Bank has been informed by the Swiss National Bank about its decision to “no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20.”The Governing Council takes note of this decision, which has been taken by the Swiss National Bank under its own responsibility.Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/wow-swiss-national-bank-takes-intervention-to-a-new-level-franc-plunges-2011-9#ixzz1XC0IMmhu
  • RIGHT CHARTAs of Monday, which may have been a holiday in the US but was anything but in floundering Europe, the ECB held a whopping €166.8 billion in its deposit facility. This is an increase of €15 billion over Friday, and is the highest since August 2010. What this means, simply said, is that European banks are so terrified of holdings cash with each other or frankly in any market conduit not explicitly backstopped by the ECB (we will spare you the LIBOR chart, suffice it to say that 3M USD Libor increased again, this time from 0.333% to 0.336% as perfectly non-shadow interbank funding is becoming rares than hen's teeth). Between the Libor chart and the amount of cash banks have dumped en masses with Trichet (who for some reason is considered a safe locus for capital), one will have a very good perspective of just how ugly the European funding crisis is. TODAY we also get an update of how many if any banks borrowed USDs on the special ECB lending facility, which in turn would mean a conduit loan from the New York Fed. If the answer is affirmative, and if one or more banks did indeed borrow dollars, expect SocGen and the usual European suspects to be slammed hard as usual in regular trading tomorrow.
  • President Barack Obama's jobs package to be unveiled Tomorrow will clock in at $300 billion dollars, Bloomberg's Al Hunt reports.The money would be split between tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and transfer payments to state and local governments, according to the report — which is in line with what administration officials have been hinting at for weeks. More than half of the total would come from the extension and expansion of the payroll tax cut, and the continuation of expiring of unemployment benefits.Republicans are already lining up in opposition to Obama's plan — even before they have been briefed on its contents — with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell saying he is certain it will be "more of the same" failed policies.House Majority Leader Eric Cantor already ruled out a "second failed stimulus" in a joint letter to Obama with Speaker of the House John Boehner and given the GOP's focus on deficits, a plan of this magnitude may be a tough sell.Republicans have already expressed their unwillingness to extend the payroll tax cut, though they would face tremendous political opposition if they were to block it.The proposals don't represent anything beyond what the administration has already publicly floated, something the White House is cognizant of. Press Secretary Jay Carney sought to downplay expectations he set that Obama would provide new proposals, telling the press today "what's new to some is not new to others.“Obama is under pressure to deal with the stagnant unemployment rate — especially after Friday's dismal August jobs reportRead more: http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-jobs-plan-to-cost-300-billion-in-tax-cuts-new-infrastructure-spending-2011-9#ixzz1XGLajLD0
  • "That’s why we chose Detroit as one of the cities that we’re helping revitalize in our “Strong Cities, Strong Communities” initiative. We’re teaming up with everybody -- mayors, local officials, you name it -- boosting economic development, rebuilding your communities the best way, which is a way that involves you. Because despite all that’s changed here, and all the work that lies ahead, this is still a city where men clocked into factories. This is the city that built the greatest middle class the world has ever known. This is the city where women rolled up their sleeves and helped build an arsenal for democracy to free the world. This is a city where the great American industry has come back to life and the industries of tomorrow are taking root. This is a city where people, brave and bold, courageous and clever, are dreaming up ways to prove the skeptics wrong and write the next proud chapter in our history."

Global insights audio-slides-09-07-11 Global insights audio-slides-09-07-11 Presentation Transcript

  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    POT POURRI
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
    The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    NOT A HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN EUROPE!
    Frau Merkel in serious trouble = Uncertainty, when Certainty is Required
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
    The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    CURRENCY WARS HEAT UP
    “The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.”
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
    The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    CURRENCY WARS HEAT UP
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
    The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    FRIGHTENING
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
    The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    LAST SHOE TO FALL
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
    The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    OBAMA’S JOB SPEECH
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
    The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    OBAMA’S JOB SPEECH
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
    The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    OBAMA’S JOB SPEECH
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
    The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    POT POURRI
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
    The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
  • This chart accompanies the podcast recordedSeptember 7th, 2011
    POT POURRI
    DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE
    THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
    Listen to the original podcast for this slide at eitherwww.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsightsorwww.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights