Current political situation in Ukraine 2013


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Presidential elections-2015 will direct all political processes in Ukraine for next 2 years. As Ukraine moves toward presidential elections in 2015, the media is still a long way from providing good quality objective, balanced and varied information to help voters make an informed choice.

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Current political situation in Ukraine 2013

  1. 1. Current Political Situationin Ukraine, 2013Mykhailo MinakovFoundation for Good PoliticsWashington, DC, April 4, 2013
  2. 2. Macropolitical Tendencies, 2008-2013 further enforcement of central government and decline of local self-administration growth of popular support for a ‘strong hand’ President in 2009 – 2010 consolidation of power after victory of Victor Yanukovych in 2010 dominance of the Party of Regions and associated business groups return to pre-2006 Constitution with presidential rule creation of the ‘vertical of power’ (parliament, courts, and local governments are under control of one party) authoritarian tendencies with relatively strong political pluralism Events Analysis, Foundation for Good Politics, 2010-2013
  3. 3. Recent Political Processes, 2012–2013 parliamentary elections 2012 creation of new government in December 2012 – January 2013 contradictory economic development growth of socio-economic protest movement
  4. 4. Parliamentary Elections 2012 half of the seats in the 450-seat parliament are determined by proportional representation by a country-wide party list, with a minimum of 5% of the vote needed to receive seats; the other half is decided by races in individual districts campaign : summer – fall 2012 vote day : October 28, 2012
  5. 5. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :Campaign - Access of parties to TV channels, October-12 56% : Party of Regions 19% : all opposition parties Доступ до медіа: вибори 2012 / За ред. Н.В.Костенко та В.Ф.Іванова. – К.: АУП, ЦВП, 2012. – 72 с.
  6. 6. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :Campaign - Political Advertisement, October-12 Доступ до медіа: вибори 2012 / За ред. Н.В.Костенко та В.Ф.Іванова. – К.: АУП, ЦВП, 2012. – 72 с.
  7. 7. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :Campaign - Anti-Advertisement, October-12 Доступ до медіа: вибори 2012 / За ред. Н.В.Костенко та В.Ф.Іванова. – К.: АУП, ЦВП, 2012. – 72 с.
  8. 8. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :Results the Party of Regions won 30% of the vote for the party list seats the Batkivshchyna party, which was founded by the jailed Yulia Tymoshenko, won 25.5% the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR), led by Vitalii Klichko, won 14% the Communist Party of Ukraine won 13.2% the extreme nationalist party Freedom won 10.4%
  9. 9. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :Results in Multi Mandate District
  10. 10. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :Results in in Single Mandate District
  11. 11. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :Results - Seats in the Verkhovna Rada unstable majority: the Party of Regions : 208 members (short of the 226 needed for a majority) the Communist Party : 32 members independent deputies (claimed to be associated with the Party of Regions) : 27 members the opposition: the Batkivshchyna party : 99 seats (4 dropped out) UDAR : 42 seats Freedom Union : 24 seats
  12. 12. Parliamentary Elections 2012 :International Assessment of Election A statement by an Election Observation Team (OSCE, the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, the Council of Europe, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, and the European Parliament) stated: the election was characterized by “the lack of a level playing field, caused primarily by the abuse of administrative resources, lack of transparency of campaign and party financing, and lack of balanced media coverage” the election campaign “constituted a step backwards compared with recent national elections” the observers assessed the voting on election day and the initial counting of ballots “mostly positively” however, the report added that tabulation of vote totals was assessed negatively due to a lack of transparencyINTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVATION, Ukraine — Parliamentary Elections, 28 October 2012 (
  13. 13. Economic Development Ukraine entered into a recession in the second half of 2012, bringing growth in real GDP for the whole year to just 0.2 percent Weak economic performance resulted in a significant budget shortfall in the second half of 2012: actual revenue of the central budget was UAH 33 billion (2.5 percent GDP) lower than initial budget plan because both real GDP growth and inflation were lower than the forecast on which the budget was based Trend in early 2013: industrial production and consumer prices continue to decline By end 2012, current account deficit widened to 8.4 percent GDP and foreign reserves position of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) weakened gross reserves fell to USD 24.5 billion (2.7 months of imports) gross external debt increased by 7 percent during 2012 and reached USD 135 billion while banking sector share continued to decline due to deleveraging of European banks New financial support with IMF and EU under question Ukraine Economic Update, World Bank, April 2, 2013
  14. 14. New Government after elections more ministerial seats for representatives of the pro-President group (colloquially known as “the Family”) Prime Minister Mykola Azarov remained at his post Prime Minister Azarov’s role has been significantly diminished by the appointment of Serhiy Arbuzov, a representative of the Family, as first deputy prime minister The Family has strengthened its control over the cash flows and force ministries and agencies, which are of key importance before the presidential elections in 2015 the Akhmetov’s group has maintained control over certain economic sectors The so-called RUE group (led by Dmytro Firtash) lost its former influence, but retained its influence in the energy sector most of business groups from the Party of Regions are getting marginalized; area of possible future conflicts within ruling party
  15. 15. У 2012 році ми зафіксували 3636 протестних подій, що є рекордною кількістюпротестів за останні три роки. Порівняно з 2011 роком (2277 подій) відбулося зрос-тання на 60%. У чому причини такого зростання? Які вимоги активніше виводили Growth of Socio-Economic Protest Movementлюдей на вулиці? Які організації, партії та групи стояли за сплеском протестів? Про-ти кого і за що він був спрямований? Dynamics of the public protests, 2010 – 2012Графік 1.1. Динаміка кількості протестних подій mostly nonviolent main issues connected with the national socio- economic issues (28%) and local issues (21%) main protests in Kiev, Lviv, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Crimea and Donetsk Protest event analysis: Протести, перемоги і репресії в Україні: результати моніторингу 2012 р. / За ред. В. Іщенка. – К.: Центр дослідження суспільства, 2013. Рекорд кількості протестних подій було побито 5 місяців поспіль: у березні,травні, червні, липні, жовтні. Перший пік ще в березні (317 протестних подій) пе-ревищив попередні рекорди під час Податкового майдану (292) та кампанії «чор-
  16. 16. Growth of Socio-Economic Protest MovementParties-led street protests, 2010 – 2012 Protest event analysis: Протести, перемоги і репресії в Україні: результати моніторингу 2012 р. / За ред. В. Іщенка. – К.: Центр дослідження суспільства, 2013.
  17. 17. Future Political Development EU - Ukraine Association Agreement Preparations to Presidential elections in 2015
  18. 18. EU-Ukraine Association Agreement does not contain a perspective of future membership includes a free trade accord and will allow for deeper cooperation between the EU and Ukraine in a wide variety of fields Meeting of Ukraine’s President and EU Commissionaires on Feb 25, 2013: EU officials have postponed the signing of the agreement due to the Ukrainian leadership’s failure to show sufficient commitment to European values in democracy and rule of law May 2013 as a critical moment for sign off close monitoring of political developments has already identified problems: "The High Representative Catherine Ashton and Commissioner Štefan Füle are … deeply concerned by recent legal proceedings leading to possible annulment of parliamentary mandates of two members of the Parliament on contested legal grounds. They also pay particular attention to the situation related to the case of MP Serhiy Vlasenko in the light of a recent petition to the High Administrative Court to possibly revoke his parliamentary mandate… In light of these developments, they reiterate the need to take early steps to improve the electoral legislation of Ukraine as recommended by the OSCE/ODIHR final report of 3 January 2013, by giving consideration to an Election Code.” ( 2014/fule/headlines/news/2013/03/20130305_1_en.htm)
  19. 19. Preparations to Presidential Elections presidential elections will direct all political processes in Ukraine for next 2 years keeping opposition disunited, with several leaders imprisoned possible Constitutional Reform possible referendum re bi-cameral parliament and change in President’s election method special attention of political players to media holdings and their owners
  20. 20. Preparations to Presidential Elections Case of the Inter TV Channel • change among owners, Firtash and Liovochkin group • dismissal of the Civic Advisory Group that oversaw the balance in the news coverage • change in the news coverage• Case of the UNIAN agency • biased coverage of opposition activity
  21. 21. Preparations to Presidential Elections Unprecedented competition for digital frequencies licensing: the majority of regional companies lost an opportunity to broadcast in digital after 2015, when analog television will be withdrawn : TVi was denied, and 5 kanal received only one of the two frequencies it requested the opposition’s Crimean TRC Chernomorskaya lost its license ; Rivne-1, TRC Chernivtsi, and TV-4 in Ternopil face the same problem out of the 68 private regional broadcasters across Ukraine, only one received a digital license out of the three mighty regional broadcasters in Lviv in operation for years, none received a digital license State and municipal companies received licenses with obvious preference and free of any obstacles, violating the principle of equality. National Council on Licensing introduced new players that have never broadcasted in the market, and granted them licenses for years ahead. Loyalty to the ruling party was the necessary pre-condition—a notion articulated rather openly. Media Sustainability Index, IREX, 2012
  22. 22. Future Political Development EU - Ukraine Association Agreement : May 2013 is a decisive moment Preparations to Presidential elections in 2015 : summer and fall 2013 will show priorities of Constitutional and Political Reform