The Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2012
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The Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2012

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The Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2012 The Public Opinion Landscape - Election 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis September 14, 2012
  • TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..32. Views of Obama..…………………………………………………………….…...73. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…104. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……185. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...21 2
  • Political Context 3
  • CHALLENGING ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE State of the Nation Clinton Bush Obama Sept 1996 Sept 2004 Sept 2012 Highest inSatisfied 45 41 30 ThreeUnsatisfied 50 56 68 Years.Source: Gallup Poll, September 6-9, 2012 A year ago, • Tougher political, economic, and foreign policy environment satisfaction stood at Post-2010, narrower field of battleground states • 11% • New Republican governors in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Michigan • Continuing high unemployment • No President has been re-elected since WWII when unemployment was above 7.5% 4
  • IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID Which one of the following issues will be most important in deciding your vote for president? Economic issues such as jobs and growth 47% Fiscal issues such as taxes, the deficit and government spending 22% Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage 10% National security issues such as terrorism and ensuring a strong military 4% AMONG LIKELY VOTERS All (vol.) 14% Other (vol.) 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 5Source: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012
  • MORE DEMOCRATS THAN REPUBLICANS FIND CAMPAIGN INTERESTING How would you describe the presidential election campaign so far – is it [READ ITEM]? 6Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • Obama 7
  • AMERICANS APPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE; SEES BOUNCE FOLLOWING THE CONVENTION Fox News (LVs) Aug Sept 19-21 9 - 11 Overall Job Approval Approve 46% 50% Approve Disapprove No opinion Disapprove 50% 47% CNN (RVs) Aug 31 – Sept Sept 3 7-9 50% Approve 48% 51% 44% Disapprove 45% 44% 6% Gallup (Adults) Aug 27 – Sept Sept 2 3-9 Approve 44% 50% Disapprove 47% 44%Source: Gallup Poll, September 3 – 9 , 2012 8
  • ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY FAVORABLE 51.1% FAVORABLE 45.6% UNFAVORABLE 45.1% UNFAVORABLE 48.3% As of September 13, 2012 9Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
  • Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race 10
  • AFTER CONVENTIONS, OBAMA TAKES THE LEAD A Look Back As of September 14, 2012 Four Years Ago Today* Sept 14, 2008 % OBAMA 48.6% Obama 45.3 McCain 47.4 McCain +2.1 +3.7 Eight Years Ago Today Sept 14, 2004 % ROMNEY 44.9% Bush 49.0 Kerry 43.3 Bush +5.7 Source: Real Clear Politics * Note that the GOP convention followed the 11 Democratic convention in 2004Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
  • OBAMA GETS A BOUNCE OUT OF CONVENTIONS Fox News Poll (among Likely Voters) Obama Romney Spread Pre-convention (Aug 19-21) 44% 45% Romney +1 Post-convention (Sept 9-11) 48% 43% Obama +5 Change +4 -2 CNN Poll (among Likely Voters) Obama Romney Spread Pre-convention (Aug 22-23) 49% 47% Obama +2 Post-convention (Sept 7-9) 52% 46% Obama +6 Change +3 -1 ABC/WP Poll (among Registered Voters) Obama Romney Spread Pre-convention (Aug 22-25) 46% 47% Romney +1 Post-convention (Sept 7-9) 50% 44% Obama +6 Change +4 -3 12
  • CANDIDATE BOUNCES BELOW THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE Post-Dem. Post-Rep. Democratic Republican Convention convention candidate candidate bounce bounce 2012 Obama 3 Romney -1 2008 Obama 4 McCain 6 2004 Kerry -1 G.W. Bush 2 2000 Gore 8 G.W. Bush 8 1996 Clinton 5 Dole 3 1992 Clinton 16 G.H.W. Bush 5 1988 Dukakis 7 G.H.W. Bush 6 1984 Mondale 9 Reagan 4 1980 Carter 10 Reagan 8 1976 Carter 9 Ford 5 1972 McGovern 0 Nixon 7 13Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES APPEAR TO HURT ROMNEY MORE THAN OBAMA Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Partys candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? 60% AMONG LIKELY VOTERS 51% 50% 43% 40% 30% 20% 10% 3% 1% 0% Obama Romney Johnson Stein Note: “Other (vol),” “None (vol),” and “No 14 Opinion” results are not shown.Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • WHEN IT COMES TO MOTIVATION, OBAMA HAS AN EDGE (IF SUPPORT OBAMA OR ROMNEY) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Obama/Romney), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? AMONG ENTHUSIASTIC NOT ENTHUSIASTIC REGISTERED VOTERS NET Very Somewhat NET Not so Not at all Obama supporters 93% 56% 38% 7% 3% 3% Romney supporters 87% 46% 40% 13% 7% 6% 15Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • LIKELY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON MOST ISSUES Now Im going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President. Obama Romney 60% 54% 54% 54% 50% 50% 49% 51% 50% 47% 46% 45% 43% 42% 40% 30% R O O O O O +3 +1 +5 +9 +11 +12 20% 10% 0% The federal The economy Taxes Healthcare Medicare Foreign policy budget deficit Note: “Neither,” and “No opinion” results 16 are not shown.Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • AMERICANS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON PERSONAL DIMENSIONS, SUCH AS BEING IN TOUCH WITH THE PROBLEMS THAT FACE THE MIDDLE CLASS Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Barack Obama or more to Mitt Romney. Obama Romney Is in touch with the problems facing the 57% O, +20 middle class 37% Shares your values 51% O, +7 44% Is more honest and trustworthy 51% O, +10 41% Has an optimistic vision for the countrys 51% future 41% O, +10 Is a strong and decisive leader 50% O, +6 44% Can manage the government effectively 48% O, +3 45% Has a clear plan for solving the countrys 45% O, +6 problems 39% 0% 20% 40% 60% 17Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • Battleground States 18
  • THE ELECTORAL MAP 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9 CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 237 Toss-Up: 110 Romney: 191 19Source: Real Clear Politics (as of September 13, 2012)
  • BATTLEGROUND STATE DASHBOARD RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES States Obama Romney Obama Romney Colorado 49.0% 45.3% 9 0 Florida 47.8% 46.5% 29 0 Iowa 45.0% 44.8% 6 0 Nevada 49.0% 45.7% 6 0 New Hampshire 47.3% 43.3% 4 0 North Carolina 45.5% 49.0% 0 15 Ohio 48.5% 44.3% 18 0 Virginia 47.0% 46.6% 0 13 Wisconsin 48.2% 46.8% 10 0 Swing State Voters 111 15 Leaning/Likely State Voters 221 191 Total Overall Votes 319 206 20Source: Real Clear Politics, as of September 14, 2012
  • Battle for Congress 21
  • 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE. Republicans need to win 6 Toss-Up seats to gain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in NE, while losing a seat in ME. Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (5) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (2) Likely Rep (1) ME* (Open) – HI (Open) – MO (McCaskill) – AZ (Open) – NE (Open) – Republican Democrat Democrat Republican Democrat PA (Casey) – FL (Nelson) – MT (Tester) – IN (Open) – Democrat Democrat Democrat Republican MI (Stabenow) – OH (Brown) – VA (Open) – Democrat Democrat Democrat CT (Open) – WI (Open) – Democrat Democrat NM (Open) – ND (Open) - Democrat Democrat MA (Brown) – Republican NV (Heller) – Republican *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if 22 he wins the open Maine seatSource: Roll Call, as of September 13, 2012
  • LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES (6/13-6/25) (8/20 – 9/11) (5/3-7/11) King: 53% (8/15-8/21) Rehberg : 45% Berg: 49% Summers: 25% Thompson: 51% Tester: 44% Heitkamp: 44% Dill: 8% Baldwin: 43% ND ME OR MT MN NH WI MA (8/22-9/11) McCaskill: 48% Brown: NV 44% Akin: 43% CO MO VA Warren: KY 43% NC (5/7-8/19) Heller: 47% NM NM Berkley: 42% GA Allen: 46% (7/24-8/26) Kaine: 45% Heinrich: 49% (8/16-9/11) Wilson: 41% FL (8/5-9/9) Nelson: 46% Mack: 39% (8/15-9/9) 23Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 13, 2012)
  • GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverseaudiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques touncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messagingand strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com) 24