Public Opinion Landscape - The Economy
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Public Opinion Landscape - The Economy

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Public Opinion Landscape - The Economy Public Opinion Landscape - The Economy Presentation Transcript

  • The Public Opinion Landscape –The Economy September 21, 2012
  • TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide1. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future 32. Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy 103. Perceptions of Role of Government & Regulation 184. 2012 Election: Obama vs. Romney on the Economy 21 1
  • SUMMARY1. Slight increase in economic optimism over last few months. a) However, overall views of economy still weak.2. Obama gets negative (though improving) ratings on his handling of the economy.3. Generally, people feel the economy hasn’t improved under Obama – and that he deserves at least some of the blame. a) Yet, people still see Bush policies as primarily responsible for our national economic problems.4. Electorate evenly divided over whether Obama or Romney would better handle the economy. a) Obama seen as more in touch with Americans’ economic problems while voters expect a Romney administration would favor the rich. 2
  • Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future 3
  • AS WE NEAR THE ELECTION, OPTIMISM IS ON THE RISE WRONG TRACK 57.7% Election Optimism? The trend shows a subtle increase in RIGHT DIRECTION 34.1% optimism since July. 4Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 19, 2012
  • AMERICANS’ VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY HAVE BECOME MORE POSITIVE Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 60% 49% 50% 49% 50% 44% 45% 45% 43% Staying 43% 44% 38% 39% the Same 40% 43% 34% 30% 28% 30% 33% 30% 30% 32% Getting 30% 36% better 32% 28% 28% Getting 20% 24% 23% 22% 24% 24% 25% worse 18% 10% 12% 14% 0% 5Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, September 8-12, 2012
  • MAJORITY BELIEVE HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL SITUATION WILL STAY THE SAME OR GET BETTER How do you expect the financial situation of your household to change over the next 12 months? Will it get better, get worse, or stay about the same? 60% 52% 51% 52% 50% 50% 47% Staying 44% the Same 40% Getting 36% 37% 36% better 30% 31% 30% 30% 20% 18% Getting 10% 15% 14% 11% 11% 12% worse 0% Dec-11 Feb-12 May-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 6Source: AP-GfK Poll, September 13-17, 2012
  • YET, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX DECLINES IN AUGUST; AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE LAST NOVEMBER Consumer Confidence Index 80 72 71.6 68.7 70 66 64.8 65.4 62.7 61.7 61.5 60.6 56.5 59.2 60 54.5 53.2 54.3 55.2 49.3 58.5 50 46.4 40.9 47.4 48.7 48.6 40 46.4 45.2 30 20 10 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 7Source: Consumer Confidence Index, The Conference Board
  • AMERICANS CONTINUE TO HEAR A MIX OF GOOD AND BAD NEWS ABOUT THE ECONOMY Are you hearing mostly good news about the economy these days, mostly bad news about the economy or a mix of both good and bad news? 90% 80% Mix of good and bad news 80% 68% 65% 68% 67% 70% 64% 62%60% 58% 60% 60% 53% 58% 50% 41% Mostly bad news 41% 40% 30% 32% 39% 35% 30% 31% 29% 30% 20% 19% 11% 24% 24% Mostly good news 11% 10% 1% 1% 3% 6% 0% Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Dec-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 A Mix of Good and Bad Mostly Bad News Mostly Good News 8Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • VERY LARGE PARTISAN GAP IN VIEWS OF ECONOMIC NEWS % hearing mostly bad news Rep Dem Ind about… The economy 60% 15% 36% The job situation 75% 34% 54% Consumer prices 74% 40% 64% Financial markets 52% 23% 42% Real estate 57% 30% 44% values Gas prices 89% 65% 78% 9Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy 10
  • GAP ON PRESIDENT OBAMA’S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY NARROWS Handling of the economy Disapprove 50.6% Approve 44.0% 11Source: Pollster.com composite measure as of September 19, 2012
  • MAJORITY FEEL OBAMA’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE ECONOMY. HOWEVER, 41% DON’T THINK HIS POLICIES WILL EVER HELP THE ECONOMY Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obamas economic policies: 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will. Improving economy 26% 56% Not improved but will in time 30% Not improving and never will 41% Among Likely Voters Note: “Made economy worse (vol.)” 12 and “DK/NA” results not shownSource: CBS News/NY Times Poll, September 8-12, 2012
  • JUST AS MANY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA A GOOD GRADE ON THE ECONOMY AS A POOR GRADE What grade would you give President Obama on fixing the economy after being in office for three and a half years? 38% A/B 36% D/F 30% 26% 25% 24% 20% 15% 14% 12% 12% 11% 10% 5% 0% A B C D F Inc. 13 Note: “Don’t know” results not shownSource: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012
  • PARTISANSHIP DRIVES VIEWS ON PRESIDENTIAL IMPACT ON ECONOMY Is the condition of the national economy something a president can do a lot about, or is it beyond a president’s control? Beyond President’s Control Can Do A Lot NOTE: In July ’11, Total 40% 51% 41% of Americans felt the economy was something the president can Republican 24% 71% do a lot about. 53% believed the economy was beyond the Democrat 55% 35% president’s control. Independent 39% 53% Note: “Don’t know” results not shown 14Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012
  • MAJORITY INDICATES ECONOMY HAS NOT IMPROVED UNDER OBAMA’S TENURE; OF THOSE THAT FEEL THIS WAY, MAJORITY FEELS HE DESERVES SOME BLAME Now thinking about the country’s economy (IF ECONOMY GOTTEN WORSE OR SAME) as a whole, would you say the economy has How much, if at all, do you blame Obama for gotten better since Obama became the fact that the economy has not gotten president, gotten worse, or remained about better since he took office – do you think he the same? deserves a lot of the blame for that, some, a little or none at all? Among Registered Voters 43% A lot of blame 37% 32% 71% 24% Some blame 34% A little blame 15% Better Worse Same No blame at all 14% 15 Note: “No opinion” results not shownSource: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • MAJORITY INDICATES PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION HAS NOT IMPROVED UNDER OBAMA’S TENURE; ABOUT HALF FEEL HE DESERVES AT LEAST SOME BLAME Would you say you, yourself are better off (IF NOT AS WELL OFF OR SAME SINCE financially than you were when Obama OBAMA) How much, if at all, do you blame became president, not as well off, or about Obama for the fact that you haven’t gotten the same shape as then financially? better off financially since he took office – do you think he deserves a lot of the blame for that, some, a little or none at all? Among Registered Voters 47% A lot of blame 22% 32% 48% 20% Some blame 26% A little blame 18% Better off Not as well off About the same No blame at all 31% 16 Note: “No opinion” results not shownSource: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • YET OBAMA STILL NOT BLAMED AS MUCH AS HIS PREDECESSOR FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Do you think the policies of Barack Obama and the Democrats or George W. Bush and the Republicans are more responsible for the country’s current economic problems? Among Likely Voters Obama and the Bush and the Democrats Republicans 38% 54% Note: “Both equally (vol),” “Neither (vol),” and 17 “No opinion” results not shownSource: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • Perceptions of Role of Government & Regulation 18
  • MAJOR PARTISAN DIVIDE ON APPROPRIATE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. Others think that government should do more to solve our country’s problems. Which comes to closer to your own view? Doing too Government Mixed / much should do more Depends ALL 54% 39% 5% Republicans 82% 15% 1% Independents 62% 29% 7% Democrats 24% 67% 7% 19Source: Gallup Poll, September 6-9, 2012
  • IN A SHIFT FROM ’08 – ’09, VOTERS NOW SEE TOO MUCH GOVERNMENT REGULATION… Do you think the federal government regulates business too much these days, does it regulate business to little, or does it impose the right amount of regulation on business? 60% 49% 50% 45% 41% 43% Too much 40% 40% 35% 26% 28% 28% 27% Too little 30% 22% 22% 20% 25% Right amount 22% 18% 17% 19% 10% 16% 0% Jan-86 Feb-02 Sep-08 Feb-09 Feb-11 Jul-12 Note: “Depends (vol.)” and “DK/NA” 20 results not shownSource: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012
  • 2012 – ElectionObama vs. Romney on the Economy 21 21
  • OBAMA PULLS EVEN WITH ROMNEY ON BETTER ABLE TO HANDLE THE ECONOMY Before After After conventions Republican Democratic 80% convention convention 60% 50% 51% 50% 40% 49% 46% 45% 20% Among Likely Voters Among Likely Voters Among Likely Voters 0% Obama Romney Now, I’m going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President? The economy 22Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • VOTERS FEEL OBAMA BETTER UNDERSTANDS THE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF AMERICANS THAN ROMNEY Regardless of who you support, who do you think better understands the economic problems people in this country are having – Obama or Romney? 60% Obama 52% 51% 49% 50% 50% 48% 47% Romney 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 37% 38% 30% Among Registered Voters 20% Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 23Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
  • OBAMA & ROMNEY CLOSE ON MOST OTHER ECONOMIC ISSUES Regardless of who you support, which one of the presidential candidates [Mitt Romney or Barack Obama] do you think would do the best job of [INSERT]? 60% Obama Romney Among Registered Voters 50% 48% 46% 46% 45% 43% 42% 40% 30% Obama Obama Romney 20% +6 +1 +3 10% 0% Dealing with taxes Improving the job situation Reducing the federal budget deficit Note: “Both,” “Neither,” and “Don’t 24 know” results are not shown.Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
  • VOTERS DON’T FEEL EITHER CANDIDATE HAS A CLEAR PLAN FOR IMPROVING THE ECONOMY Do you think Barack Obama has a clear Do you think Mitt Romney has a clear plan for improving the economy, or not? plan for improving the economy, or not? 51% 49% No No 45% Yes 42% Yes 9% 4% Don’t know Don’t know Among Likely Voters 25Source: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012
  • MAJORITY OF VOTERS THINK ROMNEY ADMINISTRATION WOULD FAVOR THE RICH [If Barack Obama is re-elected President / If Mitt Romney is elected President], do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same? Among Likely Voters 60% Obama Romney 53% 50% 40% 33% 30% 30% 26% 22% 20% 12% 10% 8% 1% 0% Favor rich Favor middle class Favor poor Treat equally Note: “DK/NA” results are not shown. 26Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, September 8-12, 2012
  • THE REAL 47% -- VIEW POLLS UNFAVORABLY Favorable – unfavorable views 21% Political pundits 59% Favorable Unfavorable 46% Public opinion polls 47% Note: “No opinion” results are not shown. 27Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-16, 2012
  • GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topicswith diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projectivetechniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape ourclients’ messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com) 28