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Public Opinion Landscape  - The Economy
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Public Opinion Landscape - The Economy Presentation Transcript

  • 1. The Public Opinion Landscape – The Economy
  • 2. 1
    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    Slide
    Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future
    Perceptions of Obama & Congress
    Budget Battle
    Lowering the Deficit and Making Sacrifices
    Reforming the Tax Code
    3
    14
    23
    26
    31
  • 3. 2
    SUMMARY
    Americans growing gloomier and more pessimistic about the economy.
    The issue of unemployment is having a large impact on voters.
    Deficit is a 2nd tier issue, but viewed as important.
    Obama’s overall job ratings have dropped since May bump.
    The President’s weak approval on the economy and budget deficit are driving his negative numbers.
    Increasingly, Americans trust GOP more to handle the economy.
    At first glance, Americans not inclined to favor raising the debt ceiling.
    But with more information, opinions can be changed.
    Americans want government to keep budget deficit down, but opinions differ on how best to lower the deficit.
  • 4. 3
    Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future
  • 5. AMERICANS SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THEIR VIEW OF THE U.S. ECONOMY
    4
    What is your current view of the economy in the U.S.?
    Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
    Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, June 17-20, 2011
  • 6. AMERICANS DIVIDED IN THEIR PROJECTIONS OF ANOTHER RECESSION
    5
    Over the next few months, do you think the U.S. economy is headed into another recession, where unemployment rises again, housing prices decline again, and there is no economic growth, or do you think this will not happen?
    Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, June 9-13, 2011
  • 7. ECONOMIC CONCERNS TOP MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS: Mentions of Unemployment Trending Up
    6
    Economy
    Unemploy.
    Deficit
    Healthcare
    What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
    Source: Gallup Poll, June 9-12, 2011
  • 8. ECONOMY & JOB SITUATION VIEWED AS WORSE THAN IT WAS FOUR YEARS AGO
    7
    Compared to four years ago…
    Note: “Don’t know” results are not shown.
    Source: Fox News Poll, May 15-17, 2011
  • 9. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX HAS FALLEN OVER 13 POINTS SINCE FEBRUARY PEAK
    8
    2009
    2010
    2011
    Source: Consumer Confidence Index, The Conference Board
  • 10. CURRENT CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TODAY THAN IT WAS DURING FINANCIAL CRISIS AND PAST TRAGEDIES
    9
    Source: Consumer Confidence Index, The Conference Board
  • 11. RISE IN NUMBERS THAT BELIEVE NOW IS A BAD TIME TO INVEST IN STOCK MARKET AND REAL ESTATE
    10
    STOCK MARKET
    REAL ESTATE
    Would you say now is a good time or bad time to invest in the stock market?
    And would you say that now is a good or bad time to invest in real estate?
    Note: “DK/REF” results not shown
    Source: AP-GfK Poll, June 16-20, 2011.
  • 12. HALF EXPECT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO RETURN TO PRE-RECESSION LEVEL WITH 5 YEARS, BUT SIMILAR NUMBER EXPECT IT WILL TAKE LONGER
    11
    When do you expect the U.S. unemployment rate will return to about 5%, where it was before the recession hit in 2008—within the next two years, next three to five years, next six to 10 years, longer than 10 years from now or never?
    Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
    Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, June 17-20, 2011
  • 13. OUTSOURCING AND FEDERAL DEBT SEEN AS MAJOR REASONS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HASN’T CHANGED
    12
    I’m going to mention some possible reasons the unemployment rate has not changed much in the last two or three years. For each, please tell me if you think this is a major reason, a minor reason, or not relevant to the unemployment rate.
    Note: Ranked by “Major Reason”
    Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, June 17-20, 2011
  • 14. AMERICANS SEE SPENDING AND TAX CUTS AS SUCCESSFUL APPROACH TO GROW ECONOMY & CREATE JOBS
    13
    Which of the following approaches is more likely to be successful in growing the U.S. economy and creating jobs?
    Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
    Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, June 17-20, 2011
  • 15. 14
    Perceptions of Obama & Congress
  • 16. OBAMA’S OVERALL APPROVAL RATING SEES SLIGHT DROP; STRONGEST ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS, WEAKER ON DOMESTIC PRIORITIES
    15
    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling [ITEM]?
    OVERALL JOB APPROVAL
    DISAPPROVE 49.9%
    APPROVE 45.3%
    Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, June 2-5, 2011
    Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data (as of July 6, 2011)
  • 17. 16
    OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL ON PAR WITH THAT OF CLINTON & REAGAN
    Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in June of Third Year
    Weekly Approval Rating Average
    June 27– July 3
    Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • 18. INCREASINGLY, PEOPLE TRUST GOP MORE TO HANDLE ECONOMY
    17
    Note: “Both (vol.)”, “Neither (vol.) and “No opinion” results are not shown.
    Who do you trust to do a better job handling the economy - Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
    Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, June 2-5, 2011
  • 19. SIMILAR SHIFT TOWARD GOP HANDLING THE FEDERAL DEFICIT
    18
    Note: “Both (vol.)”, “Neither (vol.) and “No opinion” results are not shown.
    Who do you trust to do a better job handling the federal budget deficit - Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
    Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, June 2-5, 2011
  • 20. TRUST IN GOP IN CONGRESS ON PAR WITH THAT OF OBAMA ON MANY ISSUES
    19
    Who do you trust to do a better job handling the economy - Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
    Note: “Both (vol.)”, “Neither (vol.) and “No opinion” results are not shown.
    Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, June 2-5, 2011
  • 21. 20
    DISSASTISFACTION WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA’S HANDLING OF THE ECONOMY
    Disapprove
    57.0%
    Approve
    36.4%
    Source: Pollster.com composite measure as of June 28, 2011
  • 22. 21
    CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITIONS STILL SEEN AS SITUATION OBAMA HAS INHERITED
    When you think about the current economic conditions, do you feel that this is a situation that Barack Obama has inherited or is this a situation his policies are mostly responsible for?
    Note: “Some of both (VOL)” and “Not sure” results not shown
    Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, June 9-13, 2011
  • 23. 22
    MAJORITY BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD TO VOTE FOR OBAMA IN 2012 IF ECONOMY ISN’T BETTER
    Please tell me if you strongly agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or strongly disagree?
    37% DISAGREE
    61% AGREE
    In 2012, President Obama will have had his chance – if the economy isn’t substantially better by election day, it will be very hard to vote for him.
    Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
    Source: Bloomberg National News Poll, June 17-20, 2011
  • 24. 23
    Budget Battle
  • 25. AT FIRST, PLURALITY DO NOT THINK CONGRESS SHOULD RAISE DEBT CEILING
    24
    The federal debt ceiling acts as a check and limit on the country’s overall liabilities, including the federal deficit and other debts. When the U.S. Treasury needs to issue debt above the ceiling in order to avoid going into bankruptcy and defaulting on its obligations. Congress needs to vote to raise the ceiling. Congress is again currently considering whether and how much to extend the debt ceiling. Do you think Congress should or should not raise the debt ceiling? If you don’t know enough to have an opinion, please just say so.
    Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, June 9-13, 2011
  • 26. BUT WITH MORE INFORMATION, MORE FAVOR RAISING THE DEBT CEILING THAN THOSE THAT DO NOT
    25
    Now, I’m going to read you two statements about the debt ceiling and please tell me which comes closer to your point of view:
    Statement A: Some people say do not raise the debt ceiling because doing so will make it easier to increase spending and harder to reduce the deficit, and will increase the debt held by other countries and passed on to the next generation.
    42%
    Do NOT Raise Debt Ceiling
    46%
    Raise Debt Ceiling
    Statement B: Other people say raise the debt ceiling because failing to do so could stop the government from meeting its obligations, including payments to those on Social Security and in the military, and cause a shock to the economy. Efforts to control should be comprehensive and long-term rather than artificial and short-term.
    Mixed/Some of both.
    Not sure.
    Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, June 9-13, 2011
  • 27. 26
    Lowering the Deficit and Making Sacrifices
  • 28. AMERICANS WANT GOVERNMENT TO KEEP BUDGET DEFICIT DOWN
    27
    Which of the following two statements comes closer to your point of view?
    Statement A: The President and Congress should worry more about boosting the economy even though it may mean larger budget deficits now and in the future.
    Statement B: The President and Congress should worry more about keeping the budget deficit down, even though it may mean it will take longer for the economy to recover.
    Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, June 9-13, 2011
  • 29. MAJORITY BELIEVES THAT THE EFFORTS TO REDUCE THE BUDGET SHOULD BE DONE NOW, USING A COMBINATION OF SPENDING CUTS AND TAX INCREASES
    28
    Overall, what do you think is the best way to reduce the federal budget deficit – (by cutting federal spending), (by increasing taxes), or by a combination of both?
    Do you think that efforts to reduce the federal deficit (should be taken now), or (should wait until after the economy improves)?
    Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, June 2-5, 2011
  • 30. 29
    AMERICANS DIVIDED ON WHO THEY TRUST TO FIND RIGHT BALANCE BETWEEN CUTTING SPENDING THAT IS NOT NEEDED AND CONTINUING SPENDING THAT IS
    When it comes to finding the right balance between [cutting government spending that is not needed] and [continuing government spending that is needed], who do you trust to do a better job – Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
    Note: “Both (vol.)”, “Neither (vol.) and “No opinion” results are not shown.
    Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, June 2-5, 2011
  • 31. TO CUT DEFICIT, MOST APPROVE OF TAXING HIGHER INCOMES, REDUCING MILITARY COMMITMENTS
    30
    Thinking about ways to reduce the deficit and size of the national debt, please tell me if you would approve or disapprove of each of the following?
    Source: Pew Research Center, May 25-30, 2011
  • 32. 31
    Reforming the Tax Code
  • 33. MAJORITY SUPPORT LOWERING CORPORATE TAX RATE – WHEN TIED TO CLOSING LOOPHOLES
    32
    Congress is currently considering revising the federal tax system for businesses and companies. For each of the following things Congress is considering, please tell me whether you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose each idea.
    Oppose
    44%
    Oppose
    28%
    Oppose
    28%
    DK/Refused
    14%
    DK/Refused
    14%
    Asked of half sample
    DK/Refused
    11%
    Asked of half sample
    Closing all of the loopholes and exemptions that benefit companies, but at the same time lowering the corporate tax rate from 35%- where it is today- to 25%
    Lowering the corporate tax rate from 35%-where it is today- to 25%
    Source: The Glover Park Group, May 20-26, 2011
  • 34. FIXING THE TAX SYSTEM TO ELIMINATE CORPORATE TAX LOOPHOLES MORE POPULAR THAN LOWERING THE CORPORATE TAX RATE
    33
    Which of these statements best describes your attitude about this potential tax change?
    Note: “DK/Neither” results not shown
    Source: The Glover Park Group, May 20-26, 2011
  • 35. AMERICANS DIVIDED ON ELIMINATING OR REDUCING TAX DEDUCTIONS AND CREDITS
    34
    Proposals to change the income tax system would reduce the overall rate you pay in exchange for also reducing or eliminating some tax deductions and credits. For each, please tell me if you would favor or oppose eliminating or reducing the deduction?
    Note: “Not Sure” results not shown
    Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, June 17-20, 2011
  • 36. 35
    GPG Research
    GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
    GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.
    For more information about this presentation
    or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
    David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)