2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Slide
1. A Look Back at 2013……………………………………………………….…...2
2. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the
Future………………………………………………………………………………….8
3. Perceptions of Obama & Congress …………………………….………14
4. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward…………………....26
1
5. THE YEAR IN REVIEW: ECONOMIC INDICATORS
THEN
January 2013
NOW
December 2013
Unemployment Rate
7.9%
6.7%
Inflation Rate
1.7%
1.2%
13,412.60
16,576.66
Consumer Confidence Index
58.4
78.1
U.S. Interest Rates
.25%
.25%
231.198
234.582
INDICATOR
Stock Market (DJIA)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
4
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.tradingeconomics.com/
6. THE YEAR IN REVIEW – PERCEPTIONS OF THE
ECONOMY
Beginning of 2013
100%
End of 2013
80%
60%
40%
64%
66%
57%
30%
61%
30%
20%
0%
Country on Wrong Track
Economy is Getting Worse*
Economy is Bad*
Compared with other years, do you think that 2013 was one of the best years for the United States, above
average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States?
One of the best
Above average
About average
Below average
One of the worst
1%
6%
23%
44%
26%
5
Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ *CBS News/NYT Poll
7. THE YEAR IN REVIEW- PERCEPTIONS OF OBAMA
Overall Job Approval Rating
Job Approval on the Economy
60%
Beginning of 2013
55%
50%
45%
40%
End of 2013
52%
49%
43%
39%
35%
6
Source: NBC/WSJ survey
8. RATINGS DROP ACROSS THE BOARD IN 2013
Government
Shutdown in October
was leading factor in
these declines.
7
Source: HuffPost Pollster
10. MAJORITY OF AMERICANS CONTINUE TO FEEL
THE NATION IS ON THE WRONG TRACK
WRONG TRACK 61.9%
The percentage of
Americans saying
the nation is
heading in the right
direction hasn’t
topped 50 in about
a decade
RIGHT DIRECTION 29.2%
9
Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 27, 2014
11. EXPECTATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY JUMP AL L
OVER THE PLACE TOWARD THE END OF 2013
During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get
worse, or stay about the same?
50%
42%
40%
30%
20%
10%
38%
46%
41%
45%
38%
35% 27% 36%
33%
19% 19% 20%
42%
45%
32% 34%
38%
32% 31%
33%
28%
25%
18% 18%
0%
49% 47% 48%
18%
21%
46% Will stay
42% 42%
the same
27% 38%
24% 17%
34%
29%
Will get
better
24%
Will get
worse
23%
9%
10
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 4-8, 2013
12. GOVERNMENT ITSELF STILL CITED AS TOP U.S.
PROBLEM
What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?
11
Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2014
13. MAJORITIES EXPECT DEBT AND HEALTH CARE
COSTS TO GET WORSE IN NEXT YEAR
For each, please tell me if you expect things to be better in the next 12 months, worse, or
about the same as the last 12 months?
Better
About the Same
41%
The housing market
32%
40%
Job growth
Health care costs
22%
America's economic standing in the
world
16%
27%
41%
20%
The size of the national debt
22%
32%
33%
Overall strength of the economy
Worse
15%
25%
61%
37%
19%
41%
63%
12
Sources: Bloomberg News National Poll, December 6-9, 2013
14. BUSH CONTINUES TO BE BLAMED FOR
COUNTRY’S CURRENT ECONOMIC PROBLEMS
Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s current economic problems –
Barack Obama or George W. Bush?
54%
54%
51%
49%
Obama
34%
29%
Jan-12
May-12
50%
Bush
32%
Aug-12
36%
Oct-12
38%
Dec-13
13
Sources: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, December 12-15, 2013
16. OBAMA STARTS 2014 WITH A JOB APPROVAL
RATING IN THE LOW 40’s
Obama Overall Job Approval
DISAPPROVE 52.9%
APPROVE 42.1%
15
Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 27, 2014
17. OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL DECLINED STEADILY
THROUGHOUT 2013
% Approve, based on monthly averages in Gallup Daily tracking
52%
51%
48%
49% 49%
47%
46%
45%
44%
43%
41% 41%
16
Source: Gallup Poll Data
18. OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL BELOW HIS
PREDECESSOR HEADING INTO 6th YEAR
70%
64%
60%
60%
50%
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in
January of Second Year of 2nd Term
58%
43%
42%
40%
26%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Reagan
(1986)
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Clinton
(1998)
Eisenhower G.W. Bush
(1958)
(2006)
Obama
(2014)
Weekly Approval
Rating Average
Jan 20 - 26
Nixon
(1974)
17
19. THE THREATENING THIRTIES
Presidential Party Performance in Midterms When President
Has Sub-40% Approval Rating
President
Year
Truman 1946
Truman 1950
G.W. Bush 2006
Approval at
midterm
election*
33%
39%
38%
Party midterm
performance
Senate
House
-12
-6
-6
-55
-29
-30
Note: Approval rating result from last Gallup
poll prior to midterm election.
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
18
20. OBAMA ON THE ISSUES
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling…?
Approve
60%
34%
61%
35%
The federal Health care
budget
Disapprove
58%
39%
51%
41%
52%
41%
The
economy
Foreign
policy
Terrorism
19
Source: Quinnipiac University Survey, January 4-7, 2014
21. NEW HEALTH CARE LAW IS TOP ISSUE IN
SHAPING OPINION OF OBAMA
Which, if any, of the following issues the president has had to deal with this year has been
most important in shaping your opinion of Barack Obama?
The new health care law
58%
The economy
25%
The government shutdown
23%
Issues in Syria and Iran
Domestic issues like immigration and guns
Issues with the NSA and privacy
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, December 4-8, 2013
Up to two
responses
accepted
16%
14%
9%
Note: “None,” ‘Other,” and
“not sure” answers not shown
20
22. 65% OF AMERICANS DISSATISFIED WITH HOW
GOVERNMENT SYSTEM WORKS
Please say whether you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very
dissatisfied with our system of government and how well it works.
21
Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2014
23. THEREFORE, CONGRESS BEGINS 2014 WITH 13%
APPROVAL
Annual average for 2013, 14%, was lowest in Gallup history
22
Source: Gallup Poll, January 7-10, 2013
24. NEITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE RECEIVES POSITIVE
MARKS ON JOB PERFORMANCE
Democrats in Congress
Approve
34%
Disapprove
60%
Unsure
6%
Do approve or disapprove of the way the
Democrats in Congress are doing their job?
Republicans in Congress
Approve
25%
Disapprove
71%
Unsure
5%
Do approve or disapprove of the way the
Republicans in Congress are doing their job?
23
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 8-12, 2014
25. MOST THINK GRIDLOCK IN DC WILL AFFECT
GROWTH; GOP SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY TO BE
BLAMED
Do you think the political gridlock in
Washington will or will not affect economic
growth in the U.S. in the next year?
Who do you blame more for what’s gone
wrong in Washington – President Obama
and the Democrats in Congress or the
Republicans in Congress?
43%
37%
Will affect
economic growth
78%
Will not affect
economic
growth
17%
Not
sure
5%
Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, December 6-9, 2013
Approve
24%
Disapprove
71%
20%
No opinion
4%
President Republicans
Obama and in Congress
Democrats in
Congress
Not sure
24
26. HALF SAY AMERICA’S SYSTEM OF DEMOCRACY
NEEDS EITHER “A LOT OF CHANGES” OR A
COMPLETE OVERHAUL
All in all, how well or badly do you think the system of democracy in America works these
days Would you say it…?
Works well and needs no changes
5%
42%
Works well but needs some changes
41%
Needs a lot of changes
Needs to be completely changed
Source: AP-NORC Center Poll, December 12-16, 2013
10%
51%
Note: “Refused” answers not shown
25
28. ECONOMY, JOBS DOMINATE PUBLIC AGENDA
I'd like to ask you about priorities for
President Obama and Congress this
year. As I read from a list, tell me if
you think each should be a top
priority, important but lower priority,
not too important or
should it not be done.
27
Source: Pew Research Center, January 15-19, 2014
29. ECONOMY, JOBS, TERRORISM RANK HIGH
ACROSS PARTISAN GROUPS
Democrats
Top Priority
Strengthening the
nation’s economy
85%
Improving the job
situation
81%
Improving the
educational system
80%
Defending the country
from future terrorist
attacks
70%
Reducing health care
costs
67%
Republicans
Top Priority
Defending the country
from future terrorist
attacks
81%
Reducing the budget
deficit
80%
Strengthening the nation’s
economy
75%
Taking steps to make the
Social Security system
financially sound
72%
Improving the job
situation
66%
28
Source: Pew Research Center, January 15-19, 2014
30. BUT AMERICANS EXPRESS LITTLE HOPE THAT
FEDERAL GOV’T WILL MAKE PROGRESS ON THE
NATION’S BIGGEST PROBLEMS
How confident are you in the ability of the FEDERAL government to make progress on the
important problems and issues facing the country in 2014?
40%
70% Not at all / Not very confident
30%
23%
3%
Not at all
confident
Not very
confident
Moderately
confident
1%
Very confident
Extremely
confident
29
Source: AP-NORC Center Poll, December 12-16, 2013
31. VERY FEW FEEL HEALTH CARE LAW SHOULD BE
KEPT IN PLACE AS IS
Which comes closest to your view about the 2010 health care law? The law is
working well and should be kept in place as is. There are some good things in the
law, but some changes are needed to make it work better. OR, The law has so
much wrong with it that it needs to be repealed entirely.
Should be kept as is
6%
Changes are needed
Needs to be repealed
Source: CBS News Poll, January 17-21, 2014
56%
34%
Note: “DK/NA” answers not shown
30
32. VARIOUS POLLS SHOW SUPPORT FOR
EXTENSION OF UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
ABC/WashPost: Congress is considering whether or not again to
extend the period in which people who’ve lost their jobs can get
unemployment benefits. (Supporters say this will help those who
can't find work.) (Opponents say this adds too much to the
federal budget deficit.) Do you think Congress should or should
not approve another extension of unemployment benefits?
Should
Should
not
No
opinion
60%
37%
3%
Should
Should
not
Depends/
DK
65%
29%
7%
Favor
[NET]
Oppose
[NET]
DK/REF
63%
34%
3%
January 20-23, 2014
CBS News: Do you think the government should extend
unemployment benefits for people who are currently out of
work, or shouldn't it do that?
January 17-21, 2014
Pew: Thinking about some government policies, do you strongly
favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose a one year extension of
federal unemployment benefits for people who have been out of
work for a long time?
January 15-19, 2014
31
Source: Various Polls
33. STRONG SUPPORT FOR RAISING FEDERAL
MINIMUM WAGE to $10.10
As you may know, the federal minimum wage is currently $7.25 an hour. Do you
favor or oppose raising the minimum wage to $10.10?
Large majorities of Democrats and
independents favor a hike in the
minimum wage, while Republicans
are split:
Favor
72%
Favor
Oppose
26%
Oppose
Reps
48%
51%
Dems
88%
10%
Inds
75%
24%
No opinion, 1%
32
Source: CBS News Poll, January 17-21, 2014
34. MOST WANT SOME TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN
DESPITE STRONG CRITICISM OF THE WAR
On another subject, all in all, considering
the costs to the United States versus the
benefits to the United States, do you
think the war in Afghanistan has been
worth fighting, or not?
66%
55%
41%
30%
Worth fighting
In the year ahead, would you rather
have the United States remove all U.S.
forces from Afghanistan or remove most
U.S. forces from Afghanistan but keep
some there for training and antiinsurgency operations?
Not worth
fighting
Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, December 12-15, 2013
Remove all Remove most,
U.S. forces
keep some
Note: “No opinion” answers
not shown
33
35. AMERICANS DIVIDED ON ALLOWING ILLEGAL
IMMIGRANTS TO BE GIVEN RIGHT TO LIVE AND
WORK HERE LEGALLY
Do you think undocumented immigrants currently living in the United States should
or should not be given the right to live and work here legally?
Should
49%
Should
not
49%
No opinion, 3%
Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, January 20-23, 2014
34
36. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics
with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective
techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our
clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpgdc.com)
35
