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  • Add inherited economy?

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  • 1. The Public Opinion Landscape –The State of the Union January 24, 2012
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide1. A Look Back at 2011……………………………………………………….…...22. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future…………………………………………………………………………….….103. Perceptions of Obama & Congress …………………………….………174. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward…………………....265. 2012: Election Preview……………………………………………………….32 1
  • 3. Year in Review: 2011
  • 4. PUBLIC’S TOP STORIES OF 2011: ECONOMY NEVER FAR FROM THE TOP The economy was the #1 or #2 most closely % Followed followed story for 33 weeks of 2011. Story Very Closely % Followed Southern storms (Apr 28 – May 1) 45% Story Very Closely Hurricane Irene (Aug 25-28)* 45% Japan disaster (Mar 17-20)* 55% 9/11 anniversary (Sept 8-11) 42% Gas and oil prices (Apr 14-17)* 53% Bin Laden killed (May 5-8)* 50% 30 U.S. troops killed (Aug 11-14) 39% Economy (Feb 24-27)* 49% Egypt protests (Feb 10-13)* 39% Arizona Shootings (Jan 13-16)* 49% Violence in Libya (Feb 24-27)* 38% Gov’t shutdown fight (Apr 7-10) 47% July heat wave (July 21-24) 38% Debt limit deal (Aug 4-7) 46% Libya air strikes (Mar 31 – Apr 3)* 37% Midwest tornadoes (May 26-29) 45% As I read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past week, please tell me if you happened to follow each news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. First, The Economy…. Note: Dates show field period of the survey in which interest was measured. * Interest in these stories was tracked over multiple weeks; highest weekly interest is shown here. 3Source: Pew Research Center News Interest Index
  • 5. VIEWS OF ECONOMIC NEWS BECOME LESS NEGATIVE AS YEAR ENDS Are you hearing mostly good news about the economy these days, mostly bad news about the economy or a mix of both good and bad news? 90% 80% Mix of good and bad news 80% 68% 68% 70% 64% 65% 60% 67% 60% 56% 56% 61% 56% 60% 54% 55% 53% 58% 50% 50% 41% Mostly bad news 46% 49% 48% 48% 42% 46% 39% 38% 40% 35% 39% 36% 27% 30% 35% 24% 30% 19% 33% 30% 30% 31% 20% Mostly good news 7% 7% 5% 6% 9% 6% 10% 1% 4% 3% 5% 4% 3% 4% 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 0% Jun-10 Jun-09 Aug-09 Apr-11 Jun-11 Feb-09 Apr-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 A Mix of Good and Bad Mostly Bad News Mostly Good News 4Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 5-8, 2012
  • 6. 2011: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN LINE WITH THE STOCK MARKET US Consumer Confidence 72 66 64.8 63.8 61.7 59.2 53.3 57.6 55.2 45.2 46.4 40.9 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Dow Jones 5Sources: www.conference-board.org./ www.tradingeconomics.com
  • 7. THE YEAR IN REVIEW: ECONOMIC INDICATORS THEN NOW INDICATOR January 2011 December 2011 Unemployment Rate 9.1% 8.5% Inflation Rate 1.63% 2.96% Stock Market 11,577.33 12,217.56 Consumer Confidence Index 53.3 55.2 U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25% U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate 1 79.21 80.21 1The US Dollar Index is a leading benchmark for the international value of the US dollar measuring the performance of the greenback against a basket of currencies which includes: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK. 6Sources: U.S. Dept of Energy, U.S. Dept of Labor, and API/ www.tradingeconomics.com/ * Yahoo Finance News
  • 8. THE YEAR IN REVIEW – PERCEPTIONS OF THE ECONOMY 100% Beginning of 2011 End of 2011 80% 60% 64% 64% 42% 44% 40% 20% 24% 19% 0% Country on Wrong Track Economy is Getting Worse* Economy is Bad* Compared with other years, do you think that 2011 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States? One of the best Above average About average Below average One of the worst 1% 3% 20% 49% 27% 7Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ * American Research Group survey
  • 9. THE YEAR IN REVIEW- PERCEPTIONS OF OBAMA Overall Job Approval Rating Job Approval on the Economy Obama Inherited Economic Conditions 100% Beginning of 2011 End of 2011 80% 65% 60% 53% 60% 46% 40% 45% 39% 20% 0% 8Source: NBC/WSJ survey
  • 10. SATISFACTION WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY UP SLIGHTLY AT START OF 2012, TO 18% Gallup has never found satisfaction lower in January of a presidential election year than it is now. 9Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2012
  • 11. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future 10
  • 12. DESPITE CONCERNS, OPTIMISM IS ON THE RISE WRONG TRACK 64.7% New Year Optimism? The trend shows a sharp increase in optimism between December 2011 and January 2012. RIGHT DIRECTION 26.9% 11Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 17, 2012
  • 13. SOME SENSE THINGS GETTING BETTER; CLOSE TO WHERE THINGS WERE A YEAR AGO Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 60% 47% 49% 50% 49% Staying 50% 46% 44% 44% 45% the Same 39% 40% 43% 36% 30% 31% 32% 30% 38% 28% Getting 30% 26% better 20% 26% 24% 24% Getting 21% 23% 23% worse 18% 10% 14% 12% 0% Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 12Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, January 12-17,2012
  • 14. NATIONAL DEBT SEEN AS TOP ECONOMIC THREAT Now, thinking about some possible economic concerns for the country. First, do you think that [insert item] poses a major threat, a minor threat, or no threat to the economic well being of the U.S.? Major Threat to U.S. Economic Well-Being Size of the national debt 76% Economic competition from China 59% Power of financial institutions & banks 56% Economic problems in Europe 46% Government regulation of business 44% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 13Source: Pew Research Poll, December 7-11, 2011
  • 15. JOB SITUATION REMAINS GLOOMY Thinking now about job opportunities where you live, would you say there are plenty of jobs available in your community or are jobs difficult to find? 90% 80% 78% 70% Jobs are difficult to find 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Plenty of jobs are available 16% 10% 0% 14Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 11-16, 2012
  • 16. VERY FEW AMERICANS SATISFIED WITH STATE OF NATION IN SEVERAL ISSUE AREAS I’m going to read some aspects of life in America today. For each one, please say whether you are -- very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? % Satisfied Jan 2008 Jan 2012 Change Overall quality of life 82% 76% -6 Nation’s security from terrorism 58% 72% +14 Quality of the environment 47% 51% +4 Role the U.S. plays in world affairs 40% 42% +2 Quality of public education 42% 37% -5 Our system of government and how it works 53% 35% -18 Nation’s energy policies 31% 34% +3 Amount Americans pay in federal taxes 34% 33% -1 Availability of affordable healthcare 25% 31% +6 Size and influence of major corporations 35% 30% -5 The moral and ethical climate 39% 28% -11 The size and power of the federal government 41% 29% -12 The state of the nation’s economy 36% 13% -23 15 Only 13 of 24 issues shownSource: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2012
  • 17. MOST AMERICANS BELIEVE NOW IS A BAD TIME TO INVEST IN STOCK MARKET, BUT GOOD FOR REAL ESTATE 61% 62% 67% 64% 52% 49% 55% 53% 52% 61% 49% 51% STOCK 47% 48% MARKET 47% 48% 45% 46%46% 43% 42% 41% 40% 33% 36% 33% 30% 31% Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Good time Bad time 65% 66% 65% 69% 60% 59% 61%61% 63% 62% REAL 54% 57% 58% 60% ESTATE 38% 39% 36% 37% 36%36%44% 40%39% 32%32% 34% 39% 29% Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Would you say now is a good time or bad time to invest in the stock market? Note: “DK/REF” And would you say that now is a good or bad time to invest in real estate? results not shown 16Source: AP-GfK Poll, December 8-12, 2011
  • 18. Perceptions of Obama & Congress 17
  • 19. OBAMA’S OVERALL APPROVAL RATING SEES SLIGHT RISE; STRONGEST ON TERRORISM AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling [ITEM]? OVERALL JOB APPROVAL NET NET Issue APPROVE DISAPPROVE DISAPPROVE 49.0% The threat of 56% 38% terrorism International 49% 44% affairs APPROVE 45.8% Creating jobs 45% 51% The economy 41% 57% The federal 35% 58% budget deficit Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Jan 12-15, 2012Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 22, 2012 18
  • 20. OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL FALLS BELOW PAST PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in 90% January of Re-Election Year 80% 77% 70% 60% 57% 55% 54% 49% 47% 50% 46% 45% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Eisenhower Carter G.W. Bush Reagan Nixon Clinton G. Bush Obama (1956) (1980) (2004) (1984) (1972) (1996) (1992) (2011) Weekly Approval Rating Average 19 Jan 16 - 22Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • 21. JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election Presidential Job Approval January March June October 2012: Barack Obama 44% ? ? ? 2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50% 1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58% 1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33% 1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58% 1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32% 1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32% 1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59% 1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74% President’s in red lost re-election 20Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • 22. OBAMA NOT BLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMY, BUT HASN’T MADE PROGRESS IN FIXING IT Who do you think is more responsible for Since he took office, has Barack Obama the country’s current economic problems – made real progress in fixing the economy or Barack Obama or George W. Bush? hasn’t he made real progress in fixing the economy? Obama Bush Both (vol) Neither (vol) Has made real progress 35% No opinion 54% Hasnt made real progress 60% 29% 6% 9% 2% Dont know 5%Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 12-15, 2012 Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, Jan 12-17, 2012 21
  • 23. MORE THAN HALF SAY OBAMA HAS NOT ACCOMPLISHED MUCH Obama has been president for about three years. Would you say he has accomplished a great deal during that time, a good amount, not very much, or little or nothing? 50% NET 40% NET 52% 30% 47% 35% 25% 27% 20% 10% 12% 0% Great deal Good amount Not much Little or nothing 22Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 12-15, 2012
  • 24. VERY FEW SAY THEY HAVE BECOME BETTER OFF DURING OBAMA’S TENURE 54% A Look Back ABC/WP G.W. Bush (10/04) Better off 30% 30% Worse off 30% About the same 40% 15% ABC/WP Clinton (6/96) Better off 29% Worse off 22% About the same 49% Better off Not as well About the ABC/WP G.H.W. Bush off same (2/92) Better off 19% Would you say you, yourself are better off financially than you were in when Obama became president, not as well off, or in Worse off 31% about the same shape as then financially? About the same 49% 23Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 12-15, 2012
  • 25. CONGRESS ENDS 2011 WITH RECORD-LOW 11% APPROVAL 11% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, the lowest single rating in Gallups history of asking this question since 1974 Annual average for 2011, 17%, also lowest in Gallup history 24Source: Gallup Poll, December 15-18, 2011
  • 26. NEITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE RECEIVES POSITIVE MARKS ON JOB PERFORMANCE Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress Disapprove Disapprove Approve 62% 69% 31% Approve 26% Not sure Not sure 7% 5% In general, do approve or disapprove of the In general, do approve or disapprove of the job Democrats in Congress are doing? job Republicans in Congress are doing? 25Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, December 7-11, 2011
  • 27. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward 26
  • 28. ECONOMY DOMINATES PUBLIC’S AGENDA Id like to ask you about priorities for President Obama and Congress this year. As I read from a list, tell me if you think each should be a top priority, important but lower priority, not too important or should it not be done. 27Source: Pew Research Center For The People & The Press Survey, January 11-16, 2012
  • 29. FAR MORE PERCEIVE IRAN AS “GREATEST DANGER” THAN IN 2011; MAJORITY PREFER WE TAKE A FIRM STAND WITH IRAN BUT PARTISAN DIVISIONS EXIST What country in the world, if In your opinion, which is more any, represents the greatest danger important: to take a firm stand against to the United States? Iranian actions or to avoid a military conflict with Iran? 28Source: Pew Research Center For The People & The Press Survey, January 11-16, 2012
  • 30. MAJORITY FAVORS REMOVING TROOPS FROM AFGHANISTAN Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Afghanistan until the situation has stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should remove troops as soon as possible? 70% 61% Remove troops as 60% 57% 56% 56% 53% soon as possible 50% 40% 30% 38% 40% 39% 38% 33% Keep troops in until the 20% situation has stabilized 10% 0% 29Source: Pew Research Center For The People & The Press Survey, January 11-16, 2012
  • 31. U.S. VIEWED AS LEADING NATION TWENTY YEARS FROM NOW; CHINA IS A CLOSE SECOND Leading Nation in 20 Years The United States 39% China 35% No country will be the leader 14% Japan 4% India 2% Russia 1% The European Union 1% Not sure 2% Today the United States is generally considered to be the world’s leading nation. Twenty years from now, which country do you think will be the leader? 30Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, December 7-11, 2011
  • 32. AMERICANS STILL DIVIDED ON HEALTH CARE REFORM LAW Question Wording Beginning of 2011 End of 2011 From what you have heard • Good idea: 39% • Good idea: 34% about Barack Obama’s health • Bad idea: 39% • Bad idea: 41% care plan that was passed by • Do not have an opinion: 21% • Do not have an opinion: 24% Congress and signed into law • Not sure: 1% • Not sure: 1% by the President last year, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea? Would you favor or oppose • Favor: 45% • Favor: 46% repealing and eliminating this • Oppose: 46% • Oppose: 40% new health care law? • No opinion/not sure: 9% • No opinion/not sure: 14% 31Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, December 7-11, 2011
  • 33. 2012 – Election Preview 32 32
  • 34. 2012 VOTER PREFERENCES: OBAMA EVEN WITH GENERIC “REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE” Presidential Trial Heat in January of an Election Year January 2004 % John Kerry 40 George W. Bush 57 January 2000 % Al Gore 41 George W. Bush 52 January 1996 % Bill Clinton 47 Bob Dole 46 January 1984 % Ronald Reagan 45 Walter Mondale 45 Source: Historical Gallup Polls 33Source: Pew Research Poll, January 4-8, 2012
  • 35. GINGRICH HAS CLIMBED BACK TO TIE ROMNEY IN NATIONAL GOP RACE Next, Im going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in the 2012 election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in 2012, or if you would support someone else. 40 35 30 29% Romney 25 28% Gingrich 20 Paul 15 13% Santorum 10 11% 5 0 34Source: Gallup Poll, January 18-22, 2012
  • 36. GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topicswith diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projectivetechniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape ourclients’ messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com) 35