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Public Opinion Landscape  Political - October 25, 2012
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Public Opinion Landscape Political - October 25, 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis October 25, 2012
  • 2. Political Context 2
  • 3. NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONGTRACK TRENDING DOWN; ECONOMY REMAINS TOPISSUE Most important problem: As of October 25, 2012 PROBLEM % The economy 37 Unemployment 26 WRONG TRACK 53.4% Federal budget deficit 12 Dissatisfaction with gov’t 9 Health care 7 Lack of money 5 Education 4 Foreign aid/Focus overseas 4 Ethical/moral/family decline 4 RIGHT DIRECTION 40.4% War/Afghanistan/Iraq 3 Immigration 2 National security 2Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data Care for elderly/Medicare 2 Source: Gallup, Oct 15-16, 2012 3
  • 4. AMERICANS’ VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY HAVE BECOME MORE POSITIVE Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 60% 49% 50% 49% 50% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% Getting 38% 38% better 39% 40% 36% 34% 32% 30% 30% 33% 30% 30% 32% Staying 28% 30% 34% the Same 28% 28% 27% Getting 20% 24% 23% 22% 24% 24% 25% worse 18% 10% 14% 0% 4Source: CBS News Poll, October 17-20, 2012
  • 5. OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL CONTINUES TO RISE Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue… APPROVE 49.1% Issue NET NET APPROVE DISAPPROVE Standing up for 57% 41% the middle class Medicare 50% 45% DISAPPROVE 47.9% Taxes 49% 46% Foreign policy 48% 46% The economy 48% 51% The federal budget and 40% 56%Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data , as of Oct. 24 spending Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Oct 7-11, 2012 5
  • 6. The Debates & The Presidential Horse Race 6
  • 7. ROMNEY CLEAR WINNER IN 1ST DEBATE; OBAMA COMES OUT WITH SLIGHT LEAD IN 2ND AND 3rd Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney 67% 46% 48% 39% 40% 25% 1st Debate 2nd Debate 3rd Debate 7Source: CNN/ORC Poll, Oct 3, 16, and 22, 2012.
  • 8. SMALL OBAMA WIN AMONG 3rd DEBATE WATCHERS;LARGER WIN AMONG UNCOMMITTED VOTERS Regardless of which candidate you happen to Who do you think won the debate: Barack support, who do you think did the best job in Obama or Mitt Romney? the debate: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney Neither/Both 8% lead for Obama 30% lead for Obama among debate watchers among uncommitted voters 53% 48% 40% 23% 24% 10% Debate watchers Uncommitted voters 8Source: CNN/ORC Poll, Oct 22, 2012. Source: CBS News Poll, Oct 22, 2012.
  • 9. ROMNEY PICKS UP VOTES AFTER FIRST DEBATE; BUT MAJORITY CLAIM DEBATES HAVE NO EFFECT ON VOTE Overall, did tonights debate make you more likely to vote for Barack Obama or more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, or did tonights debate not affect how you are likely to vote? More likely to vote for Obama More likely to vote for Romney No effect on vote 48% 50% 47% 35% 25% 25% 24% 25% 18% 1st Debate 2nd Debate 3rd Debate 9Source: CNN/ORC Poll, Oct 3, 16, and 22, 2012.
  • 10. ROMNEY’S POPULARITY SEES IMPROVEMENT AFTER FIRST DEBATE, FAVORABILITY NOW NET POSITIVE Barack Obama Favorable Rating Mitt Romney Favorable Rating FAVORABLE 48.7% FAVORABLE 47.3% UNFAVORABLE 46.5% UNFAVORABLE 43.8% As of October 25, 2012 10Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
  • 11. THE RACE HAS NARROWED IN RECENT DAYS WITH ROMNEY PULLING AHEAD NATIONALLY From October 1st – 24th ROMNEY 47.7% +0.6 OBAMA 47.1% First Debate Second Debate Four Years Ago Today: Eight Years Ago Today: October 25, 2008 % October 25, 2004 % Obama 50.4 Bush 48.8 McCain 42.4 Kerry 46.0 Obama +8.0 Bush +2.8 11Source: RCP Poll Average Source: Real Clear Politics
  • 12. AMERICANS GIVE ROMNEY THE EDGE ON THE ECONOMY, JOB CREATION AND FEDERAL BUDGET Who do you think would be better when it comes to the following issues: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, or do you think that both would be equally good or neither would be good? Among registered voters Obama Romney 60% 50% 48% 46% 46% 46% 46% 44% 43% 39% 40% 40% 38% 37% 35% 30% R R R O O O +13 +7 +6 +1 +8 +9 20% 10% 0% The federal Jobs and The economy Taxes Foreign policy Medicare budget deficit unemployment Note: “Equally good,” and “Neither” 12 results are not shown.Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, Oct 17-20, 2012
  • 13. Battleground States 13
  • 14. THE ELECTORAL MAP 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 201 Toss-Up: 131 Romney: 206 14Source: Real Clear Politics (as of October 24, 2012)
  • 15. OBAMA LEADS IN SEVEN TOSS-UP STATES, ROMNEY LEADS IN THREE RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES States Obama Romney Obama Romney Colorado 47.6% 47.8% 0 9 Florida 46.6% 48.4% 0 29 Iowa 48.8% 46.8% 6 0 Michigan 48.6% 43.6% 16 0 Nevada 49.5% 46.8% 6 0 New Hampshire 48.2% 47.4% 4 0 Ohio 47.9% 45.8% 18 0 Pennsylvania 50.0% 45.2% 20 0 Virginia 48.0% 48.0% 0 13 Wisconsin 49.5% 46.8% 10 0 Swing State Voters 80 51 Leaning/Likely State Voters 201 206 Total Overall Votes 281 257 15Source: Real Clear Politics, as of October 25, 2012
  • 16. FLORIDA: WILL IT KEEP US HANGING IN 2012? 29 2008 Results Obama 50.9% Electoral Votes McCain 48.4% Pre-1st Debate Post-2st Debate Obama: 49.0% Romney: 48.3% Romney: 45.7% Obama: 46.8% As of Oct 25 Post-3nd Debate Romney +0.9 Romney: 48.2% Obama: 47.3% Post-1st Debate Romney: 47.7% Obama: 47.6% Oct 1 Oct 9 Oct 20 2012 2012 2012 16Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
  • 17. OHIO: WILL IT BUCK THE TREND AS A SWING STATE? 2008 Results 18 Obama 51.2% Electoral Votes McCain 47.2% Pre-1st Debate Obama: 49.0% Post-2st Debate Romney: 45.0% Obama: 47.6% Romney: 46.7% As of Oct 25 Post-3nd Debate Obama +1.3 Obama: 47.4% Romney: 46.1% Post-1st Debate Obama: 48.5% Romney: 45.7% Oct 1 Oct 8 Oct 20 2012 2012 2012 17Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
  • 18. VIRGINIA: BLUE AND RED GO HEAD TO HEAD 2008 Results 13 Obama 52.7% Electoral Votes McCain 46.4% Pre-1st Debate Post-2st Debate Obama: 47.9% Obama: 47.6% Romney: 46.4% Romney: 47.5% As of Oct 25 Post-3nd Debate Obama +0.5 Obama: 47.7% Romney: 47.2% Post-1st Debate Obama: 47.7% Romney: 47.0% Oct 1 Oct 9 Oct 20 2012 2012 2012 18Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
  • 19. Battle for Congress 19
  • 20. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH Likely Dem (7) Lean Dem (3) Toss-Up (10) Lean Rep (0) Likely Rep (1) NE (Open) – ME* (Open) – Republican FL (Nelson) – Democrat AZ (Open) – Republican Democrat HI (Open) – Democrat OH (Brown) – Democrat CT (Open) – Democrat MI (Stabenow) – Democrat PA (Casey) – Democrat IN (Open) – Republican NM (Open) – Democrat MA (Brown) – Republican NJ (Menendez) – Democrat MO (McCaskill) – Democrat WA (Cantwell) – Democrat MT (Tester) – Democrat WV (Manchin) – Democrat NV (Heller) – Republican ND (Open) – Democrat VA (Open) – Democrat WI (Open) – Democrat 20 *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats ifSource: Real Clear Politics, as of October 25, 2012 he wins the open Maine seat
  • 21. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES (9/17 – 10/14) (10/9-10/22) (10/3-10/18) Rehberg : 46% Berg: 49% (10/11-10/18) Warren: 50% Baldwin: 47% Brown: 45% Tester: 46% Heitkamp: 44% Thompson: 46% (10/4-10/22) ND Murphy: 46% OR MT MN McMahon: 43% NH WI MA Mourdock: 47% CT Donnelly: 42% PA NV OH Casey: (10/10-10/11) CO IN 48% Heller: 47% MO VA KY Smith: Berkley: 43% NC 42% (10/11-10/24) AZ NM (10/9-10/21) GA Kaine: 47% Allen: 46% Flake: 44% McCaskill: 48% (10/4-10/18) Carmona: 43% Akin: 43% Brown: 48% FL (9/25-10/21) (9/25-10/21) Mandel: 42% Nelson: 47% (10/17-10/22) Mack: 42% (10/8-10/18)Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of October 25, 2012) 21
  • 22. GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverseaudiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques touncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messagingand strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com) 22