Public Opinion Landscape - October 10, 2012

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  • 1. Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis October 10, 2012
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..32. Views of the Candidates..……………………………………………….…….63. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….……...104. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……155. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...236. The Debates……………………………………………………………………….27 2
  • 3. Political Context 3
  • 4. NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONGTRACK TRENDING DOWN; JOBS IS TOP ISSUE As of October 9, 2012 Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now? PROBLEM % WRONG TRACK 54.7% Unemployment and jobs 43 The federal deficit 14 Health care 11 Gas prices 7 The situation in the 6 Middle East Taxes 4 RIGHT DIRECTION 38.4% Immigration 3 Terrorism 3 Source: Bloomberg National Poll, September 21-24, 2012Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data 4
  • 5. FOLLOWING DEBATE, ROMNEY’S SUPPORTERS FAR MORE ENGAGED IN THE CAMPAIGN THAN THEY WERE IN SEPTEMBER Among Registered Voters 5Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 4-7, 2012
  • 6. Views of the Candidates 6
  • 7. FOLLOWING CONVENTION, AMERICANS NOWAPPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL JOBPERFORMANCE Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue… APPROVE 49.6% Issue NET NET APPROVE DISAPPROVE Standing up for 58% 39% the middle class Taxes 51% 46% DISAPPROVE 47.4% Foreign policy 50% 45% Medicare 50% 44% The economy 48% 51% The federal budget and 40% 57%Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data , as of Oct. 10 spending Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept. 16-20, 2012 7
  • 8. JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION Obama Averages 49% Job Approval in September Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election Presidential Job Approval January March June October 2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ? 2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50% 1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58% 1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33% 1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58% 1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32% 1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32% 1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59% 1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74% President’s in red lost re-election 8Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • 9. ROMNEY’S POPULARITY SEES IMPROVEMENT, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY Barack Obama Favorable Rating Mitt Romney Favorable Rating FAVORABLE 51.5% FAVORABLE 46.3% UNFAVORABLE 45.1% UNFAVORABLE 48.5% As of October 9, 2012 9Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
  • 10. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race 10
  • 11. FOLLOWING DEBATE, OBAMA’S LEAD OVER ROMNEY HAS DISAPPEARED From Sept 26 to Oct 10 A Look Back Four Years Ago Today October 10, 2008 % Obama 49.4 ROMNEY 48.0% McCain 42.8 +3.1 +0.8 Obama +6.6 OBAMA 47.2% Eight Years Ago Today October 9, 2008 % Bush 48.0 Kerry 45.8 Bush +2.2 October 3, 2012 Source: Real Clear Politics 11Source: RCP Poll Average
  • 12. ROMNEY HAS SLIGHT LEAD AMONG INDEPENDENTS AMONG LIKELY VOTERS Obama Romney 94% 91% 45% 49% 42% 46% 5% 7% All Democrats Independents Republicans Note: “Other (vol),” and “Undecided” 12 results are not shown.Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012
  • 13. ROMNEY PULLS EVEN AS “STRONG LEADER” As I read a list of phrases, tell me if you think each phrase better describes Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? Obama Romney Before After Debate Debate Before After Before After Before After Debate Debate Debate Debate Debate Debate 66% 59% 51% 52% 45% 48% 44% 44% 44% 42% 38% 39% 35% 34% 30% 23% Is a strong leader Is willing to work Is honest and Connects well with with leaders from truthful ordinary Americans the other party Among Registered Voters 13Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and “No opinion” results are not shown.
  • 14. ROMNEY NOW LEADS ON JOBS, BUDGET DEFICIT Who would do June 28 – Jul 9 Sept 12-16 Oct 4-7 better on… Reducing the Obama 36% 43% 36% federal budget Romney 50% 46% 51% deficit R+14 R+3 R+15 Obama 42% 46% 41% Improving the job Romney 46% 45% 49% situation R+4 O+1 R+8 Obama 48% 48% 43% Dealing with Romney 40% 42% 47% taxes O+8 O+6 R+4 Obama -- 51% 46% Dealing with Romney -- 38% 43% Medicare O+13 O+3 Obama 49% 52% 47% Dealing with Romney 41% 39% 43% health care O+8 O+15 O+4 Among Registered Voters 14Source: Pew Research Center Poll, Oct 4-7, 2012 Statistically significant advantages in bold
  • 15. Battleground States 15
  • 16. THE ELECTORAL MAP 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 251 Toss-Up: 106 Romney: 181 16Source: Real Clear Politics (as of October 8, 2012)
  • 17. OBAMA LEADS IN FIVE TOSS-UP STATES, ROMNEY LEADS IN THREE RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES States Obama Romney Obama Romney Colorado 47.4% 47.2% 9 0 Florida 47% 47% 0 29 Iowa 48.6% 45.4% 6 0 Missouri 43.8% 49% 0 10 Nevada 50.3% 45.7% 6 0 North Carolina 47.6% 48.4% 0 15 Ohio 49% 46% 18 0 Virginia 47.8% 47.5% 13 0 Swing State Voters 52 54 Leaning/Likely State Voters 251 181 Total Overall Votes 303 235 17Source: Real Clear Politics, as of October 9, 2012
  • 18. FLORIDA: WILL IT KEEP US HANGING IN 2012? 2008 Results 29 Obama 50.9% Electoral Votes McCain 48.4% Pre-Debate Post-Debate Obama +.1 Romney +1.3Obama: 47.3% Romney: 48.1%Romney: 47.2% Obama: 46.8% 18Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
  • 19. OHIO: WILL IT BUCK THE TREND AS A SWING STATE? 2008 Results 18 Obama 51.2% Electoral Votes McCain 47.2% Pre-Debate Post-Debate Obama +3.4 Obama +2.2Obama: 48.2% Obama: 47.8%Romney: 44.8% Romney: 45.6% 19Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
  • 20. VIRGINIA: BLUE AND RED GO HEAD TO HEAD 2008 Results 13 Obama 52.7% Electoral Votes McCain 46.4% Pre-Debate Post-Debate Obama +.7 Romney +.6Obama: 47.3% Romney: 47.4%Romney: 46.6% Obama: 46.8% 20Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
  • 21. NORTH CAROLINA: WILL IT SHOCK US AGAIN? 2008 Results 15 Obama 49.9% Electoral Votes McCain 49.5% Pre-Debate Post-Debate Romney +2.7 Romney +4.2Romney: 48.5% Romney: 49.4%Obama: 45.8% Obama: 45.2% 21Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
  • 22. COLORADO: CAN THEY GET IT RIGHT 4 TIMES INA ROW? 2008 Results 9 Obama 53.5% Electoral Votes McCain 44.9% Pre-Debate Post-Debate Obama +1.2 Obama +.8Obama: 47.6% Obama: 47.5%Romney: 46.4% Romney: 46.8% 22Source: Pollster.com Polling Aggregator
  • 23. Battle for Congress 23
  • 24. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH Lean Likely Dem (6) Lean Dem (3) Toss-Up (11) Likely Rep (1) Rep (0) ME* (Open) – Republican FL (Nelson) – Democrat AZ (Open) – Republican NE (Open) – Democrat HI (Open) – Democrat NM (Open) – Democrat CT (Open) – Democrat MI (Stabenow) – Democrat PA (Casey) – Democrat IN (Open) – Republican NJ (Menendez) – Democrat MA (Brown) – Republican WA (Cantwell) – Democrat MO (McCaskill) – Democrat WV (Manchin) – Democrat MT (Tester) – Democrat NV (Heller) – Republican ND (Open) – Democrat OH (Brown) – Democrat VA (Open) – Democrat WI (Open) – Democrat *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if 24 he wins the open Maine seatSource: Real Clear Politics, as of October 9, 2012
  • 25. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES (8/20 – 9/19) (5/3-7/11) (9/16-10/6) Rehberg : 46% Berg: 49% Baldwin: 49% Tester: 44% Heitkamp: 44% Thompson: 44% (9/11-10/2) ND Murphy: 44% OR MT MN McMahon: 41% NH WI MA (9/16-10/3) CT Warren: McCaskill: 46% 47% NV OH Akin: 44% CO Brown: Heller: 45% MO KY VA 45% (9/21-10/7) Berkley: 43% NC (9/18-9/27) AZ NM Brown: 48%GA Kaine: 49% Mandel: 43% (9/27-10/4) Allen: 44% Flake: 44% (9/24-10/7) Carmona: 42% (9/25-10/3) 25Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of October 9, 2012)
  • 26. VOTERS NOW PREFER THE SAME PARTY TO HAVE CONTROL OF CONGRESS AND PRESIDENCY In general, do you think that it is better for the same political party to control both the Congress and the presidency, so they can work together more closely, or do you think that it is better to have different political parties controlling Congress and the presidency to prevent either one from going too far? 80% 70% 64% 67% 67% 62% Better if same party 60% 52% controls Congress 47% 44% 47% 48% and the presidency 50% 40% 43% 41% 41% 30% 39% 39% Better if different 31% parties control 20% 28% 23% 24% Congress and the 10% presidency 0% 26Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, September 26-30, 2012
  • 27. The Debates 27
  • 28. DEBATE WATCHERS SAY ROMNEY DID BETTER Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in last/Wednesday night’s debate – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? AMONG DEBATE WATCHERS 100% 97% Romney Obama 90% 80% 72% 70% 70% 60% 49% 50% 39% 40% 30% 20% 19% 20% 10% 2% 0% All Republicans Independents Democrats Note: “Both,” “Neither,” and “No 28 opinion” results are not shown.Source: Gallup Poll, Oct 4-5, 2012
  • 29. UPCOMING DEBATE SCHEDULE Date Debate Focus Foreign and Thurs, Oct 11 Vice Presidential Debate domestic topics Town meeting Tues, Oct 16 Second Presidential Debate format Mon, Oct 22 Third Presidential Debate Foreign policy 29Source: Commission on Presidential Debates
  • 30. GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverseaudiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques touncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messagingand strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com) 30